North Carolina Tar Heels v Brown Bears — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated 3 Sep 2026, 23:45

North Carolina Tar Heels

00:00

Brown Bears

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

North Carolina Tar Heels win

98.1%

Draw

0.0%

Brown Bears win

1.9%

9802

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	9802	72.41–48.76	72-49 0%	58%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels to score 100+	0.3%	0.4%	1.8%	0.20×	283.30
North Carolina Tar Heels to score 110+	0.0%	0.4%	0.6%	0.64×	283.35
North Carolina Tar Heels to score 120+	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	2.91×	283.36
North Carolina Tar Heels to score 130+	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	7.58×	283.36
Brown Bears to score 100+	0.0%	0.4%	0.5%	0.71×	283.36
Brown Bears to score 110+	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	4.74×	283.36
Brown Bears to score 120+	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	18.95×	283.36
Brown Bears to score 130+	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	37.89×	283.36
Both sides to score 100+	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	6.32×	283.36

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels to win H1	87.7%	88.7%	56.4%	1.57×	1.13
Brown Bears to win H1	10.1%	10.7%	39.9%	0.27×	9.32
H1 tied	2.2%	3.9%	3.7%	1.05×	25.87

H1 total 22

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 over 47.5	89.6%	87.7%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
H1 under 71.5	89.3%	87.7%	81.4%	1.08×	1.14
H1 over 51.5	79.7%	77.4%	82.0%	0.94×	1.29
H1 under 67.5	79.9%	77.4%	70.4%	1.10×	1.29
H1 under 64.5	70.2%	73.5%	60.7%	1.21×	1.36
H1 over 54.5	69.6%	67.4%	74.0%	0.91×	1.48
H1 under 62.5	62.7%	62.7%	53.7%	1.17×	1.59
H1 over 56.5	61.9%	62.7%	68.2%	0.92×	1.59
H1 over 58.5	53.7%	52.6%	61.4%	0.86×	1.90
H1 under 60.5	54.6%	52.6%	46.1%	1.14×	1.90
H1 under 59.5	50.4%	52.6%	42.2%	1.25×	1.90
H1 over 59.5	49.6%	47.4%	57.8%	0.82×	2.11
H1 under 58.5	46.3%	47.4%	38.6%	1.23×	2.11
H1 over 60.5	45.4%	47.4%	53.9%	0.88×	2.11
H1 under 56.5	38.1%	37.3%	31.8%	1.17×	2.68
H1 over 62.5	37.4%	37.3%	46.3%	0.80×	2.68
H1 under 54.5	30.4%	32.6%	26.0%	1.25×	3.07
H1 over 64.5	29.8%	26.5%	39.3%	0.68×	3.77
H1 under 51.5	20.3%	22.6%	18.0%	1.25×	4.43
H1 over 67.5	20.1%	22.6%	29.6%	0.76×	4.43
H1 under 47.5	10.4%	12.3%	9.4%	1.30×	8.14
H1 over 71.5	10.7%	12.3%	18.6%	0.66×	8.14

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels to win H2	89.1%	84.2%	56.0%	1.50×	1.19
Brown Bears to win H2	8.9%	11.3%	40.6%	0.28×	8.82
H2 tied	2.0%	3.9%	3.4%	1.16×	25.37

H2 total 22

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 under 77.5	89.0%	85.2%	77.9%	1.09×	1.17
H2 over 53.5	88.0%	85.2%	89.7%	0.95×	1.17
H2 under 73.5	79.9%	75.8%	67.1%	1.13×	1.32
H2 over 57.5	77.7%	75.8%	82.2%	0.92×	1.32
H2 under 70.5	70.6%	72.2%	57.8%	1.25×	1.39
H2 over 60.5	67.6%	66.4%	74.5%	0.89×	1.51
H2 under 68.5	63.5%	61.6%	51.3%	1.20×	1.62
H2 over 62.5	60.0%	61.6%	68.3%	0.90×	1.62
H2 under 66.5	55.8%	57.3%	44.6%	1.29×	1.74
H2 over 64.5	52.1%	52.4%	62.1%	0.84×	1.91
H2 under 65.5	51.9%	52.4%	41.2%	1.27×	1.91
H2 under 64.5	47.9%	47.6%	37.9%	1.26×	2.10
H2 over 65.5	48.1%	47.6%	58.8%	0.81×	2.10
H2 over 66.5	44.2%	42.7%	55.4%	0.77×	2.34
H2 under 62.5	40.0%	38.4%	31.7%	1.21×	2.61
H2 over 68.5	36.5%	38.4%	48.7%	0.79×	2.61
H2 under 60.5	32.4%	33.6%	25.5%	1.32×	2.97
H2 over 70.5	29.4%	27.8%	42.2%	0.66×	3.59
H2 under 57.5	22.3%	24.2%	17.8%	1.36×	4.13
H2 over 73.5	20.1%	24.2%	32.9%	0.74×	4.13
H2 under 53.5	12.0%	14.8%	10.3%	1.43×	6.76
H2 over 77.5	11.0%	14.8%	22.1%	0.67×	6.76

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels leading at half time	87.7%	89.4%	56.4%	1.58×	1.12
Brown Bears leading at half time	10.1%	10.2%	39.9%	0.26×	9.79
Level at half time	2.2%	3.8%	3.7%	1.03×	26.43

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels +5.5	99.4%	97.4%	70.1%	1.39×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +6.5	99.6%	97.4%	72.3%	1.35×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +7.5	99.7%	97.4%	74.5%	1.31×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +8.5	99.8%	97.4%	76.5%	1.27×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +9.5	99.8%	97.4%	78.7%	1.24×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +10.5	99.9%	97.4%	80.4%	1.21×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +12.5	99.9%	97.4%	83.8%	1.16×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +14.5	100.0%	97.4%	86.7%	1.12×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +16.5	100.0%	97.4%	89.1%	1.09×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +18.5	100.0%	97.4%	91.1%	1.07×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +20.5	100.0%	97.4%	92.7%	1.05×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels −1.5	97.6%	97.4%	58.7%	1.66×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +1.5	98.5%	97.4%	61.2%	1.59×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels −2.5	96.9%	97.4%	56.7%	1.72×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +2.5	98.8%	97.4%	63.3%	1.54×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels −3.5	96.1%	97.4%	54.2%	1.80×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5	99.1%	97.4%	65.7%	1.48×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +4.5	99.3%	97.4%	67.8%	1.44×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels −4.5	95.2%	97.4%	52.2%	1.87×	1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels −5.5	94.1%	91.1%	49.7%	1.83×	1.10
North Carolina Tar Heels −6.5	92.9%	91.1%	47.6%	1.91×	1.10
North Carolina Tar Heels −7.5	91.5%	91.1%	44.8%	2.04×	1.10
North Carolina Tar Heels −8.5	89.9%	85.9%	42.0%	2.05×	1.16
North Carolina Tar Heels −9.5	88.1%	85.9%	39.3%	2.19×	1.16
North Carolina Tar Heels −10.5	86.1%	85.9%	36.8%	2.33×	1.16
North Carolina Tar Heels −12.5	81.5%	81.1%	32.1%	2.52×	1.23
North Carolina Tar Heels −14.5	76.0%	76.5%	27.9%	2.74×	1.31
North Carolina Tar Heels −16.5	69.8%	66.7%	24.3%	2.75×	1.50
North Carolina Tar Heels −18.5	62.9%	61.9%	20.7%	2.99×	1.62
North Carolina Tar Heels −20.5	55.5%	57.1%	18.0%	3.17×	1.75
Brown Bears +20.5	44.5%	42.9%	82.0%	0.52×	2.33
Brown Bears +18.5	37.1%	38.1%	79.3%	0.48×	2.63
Brown Bears +16.5	30.2%	33.3%	75.7%	0.44×	3.01
Brown Bears +14.5	24.0%	23.5%	72.1%	0.33×	4.25
Brown Bears +12.5	18.5%	18.9%	67.9%	0.28×	5.29
Brown Bears +10.5	13.9%	14.1%	63.2%	0.22×	7.09
Brown Bears +9.5	11.9%	14.1%	60.7%	0.23×	7.09
Brown Bears +8.5	10.1%	14.1%	58.0%	0.24×	7.09
Brown Bears +7.5	8.5%	8.9%	55.2%	0.16×	11.25
Brown Bears +5.5	5.9%	8.9%	50.3%	0.18×	11.25
Brown Bears +6.5	7.1%	8.9%	52.4%	0.17×	11.25
Brown Bears +4.5	4.8%	2.6%	47.8%	0.05×	38.72
Brown Bears +1.5	2.4%	2.6%	41.3%	0.06×	38.73
Brown Bears −1.5	1.5%	2.6%	38.8%	0.07×	38.73
Brown Bears +2.5	3.1%	2.6%	43.3%	0.06×	38.73
Brown Bears −2.5	1.2%	2.6%	36.7%	0.07×	38.74
Brown Bears +3.5	3.9%	2.6%	45.8%	0.06×	38.73
Brown Bears −3.5	0.9%	2.6%	34.3%	0.08×	38.74
Brown Bears −4.5	0.7%	2.6%	32.2%	0.08×	38.74
Brown Bears −5.5	0.6%	2.6%	29.9%	0.09×	38.74
Brown Bears −6.5	0.4%	2.6%	27.7%	0.09×	38.74
Brown Bears −7.5	0.3%	2.6%	25.5%	0.10×	38.74
Brown Bears −8.5	0.2%	2.6%	23.5%	0.11×	38.74
Brown Bears −9.5	0.2%	2.6%	21.3%	0.12×	38.74
Brown Bears −10.5	0.1%	2.6%	19.6%	0.13×	38.74
Brown Bears −12.5	0.1%	2.6%	16.2%	0.16×	38.74
Brown Bears −14.5	0.0%	2.6%	13.3%	0.19×	38.74
Brown Bears −16.5	0.0%	2.6%	10.9%	0.24×	38.74
Brown Bears −18.5	0.0%	2.6%	8.9%	0.29×	38.74
Brown Bears −20.5	0.0%	2.6%	7.3%	0.35×	38.74

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	71.1%	67.1%	66.7%	1.01×	1.49
1st half highest scoring	28.9%	32.9%	33.3%	0.99×	3.04

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 highest scoring	34.1%	31.9%	31.2%	1.02×	3.14
Q3 highest scoring	32.3%	31.9%	31.3%	1.02×	3.14
Q1 highest scoring	17.5%	18.3%	19.6%	0.94×	5.46
Q2 highest scoring	16.1%	18.3%	17.9%	1.02×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels at HT / North Carolina Tar Heels at FT	87.0%	89.1%	48.3%	1.85×	1.12
Brown Bears at HT / North Carolina Tar Heels at FT	9.0%	8.3%	9.8%	0.85×	12.08
Level at HT / North Carolina Tar Heels at FT	2.1%	2.1%	1.9%	1.09×	47.76
North Carolina Tar Heels at HT / Brown Bears at FT	0.7%	2.1%	8.2%	0.26×	47.78
Level at HT / Brown Bears at FT	0.1%	2.1%	1.8%	1.20×	47.79
Brown Bears at HT / Brown Bears at FT	1.1%	2.1%	30.1%	0.07×	47.77

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels to win	98.1%	97.5%	59.9%	1.63×	1.03
Brown Bears to win	1.9%	2.5%	40.1%	0.06×	39.44

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels even	50.0%	50.5%	49.4%	1.02×	1.98
Brown Bears even	50.8%	50.5%	50.1%	1.01×	1.98
Total points odd	50.2%	50.5%	51.5%	0.98×	1.98
North Carolina Tar Heels odd	50.0%	49.5%	50.6%	0.98×	2.02
Brown Bears odd	49.2%	49.5%	49.9%	0.99×	2.02
Total points even	49.8%	49.5%	48.5%	1.02×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	98.2%	97.0%	95.6%	1.02×	1.03
Match to go to overtime	1.8%	3.0%	4.4%	0.67×	33.54

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels to win Q1	77.0%	79.9%	54.7%	1.46×	1.25
Brown Bears to win Q1	18.6%	15.7%	40.4%	0.39×	6.35
Q1 tied	4.4%	4.2%	4.9%	0.85×	23.95

Q1 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 38.5	90.4%	91.1%	84.8%	1.07×	1.10
Q1 over 22.5	87.1%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
Q1 under 35.5	80.3%	82.8%	73.2%	1.13×	1.21
Q1 over 25.5	74.8%	72.7%	77.6%	0.94×	1.38
Q1 under 33.5	70.9%	72.7%	64.0%	1.14×	1.38
Q1 over 27.5	64.2%	61.7%	67.7%	0.91×	1.62
Q1 under 31.5	59.7%	58.6%	54.0%	1.09×	1.71
Q1 under 30.5	53.8%	52.7%	48.8%	1.08×	1.90
Q1 over 29.5	52.3%	52.7%	56.9%	0.93×	1.90
Q1 under 29.5	47.7%	47.3%	43.1%	1.10×	2.11
Q1 over 30.5	46.2%	47.3%	51.2%	0.92×	2.11
Q1 over 31.5	40.3%	41.4%	46.0%	0.90×	2.42
Q1 under 27.5	35.8%	38.3%	32.3%	1.18×	2.61
Q1 over 33.5	29.1%	27.3%	36.0%	0.76×	3.66
Q1 under 25.5	25.2%	27.3%	22.4%	1.22×	3.67
Q1 over 35.5	19.7%	17.2%	26.8%	0.64×	5.82
Q1 under 22.5	12.9%	12.6%	11.2%	1.12×	7.95
Q1 over 38.5	9.6%	8.9%	15.2%	0.59×	11.20

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels to win Q2	76.3%	80.6%	52.9%	1.53×	1.24
Brown Bears to win Q2	19.3%	14.7%	41.5%	0.35×	6.80
Q2 tied	4.4%	4.4%	5.7%	0.77×	22.89

Q2 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 over 21.5	89.2%	87.3%	90.2%	0.97×	1.15
Q2 under 37.5	88.5%	87.3%	82.3%	1.06×	1.15
Q2 over 24.5	78.1%	76.8%	80.7%	0.95×	1.30
Q2 under 34.5	77.3%	76.8%	70.1%	1.10×	1.30
Q2 over 26.5	68.0%	67.4%	71.6%	0.94×	1.49
Q2 under 32.5	67.2%	67.4%	60.8%	1.11×	1.49
Q2 over 28.5	56.5%	58.2%	61.2%	0.95×	1.72
Q2 under 30.5	55.6%	58.2%	50.1%	1.16×	1.72
Q2 over 29.5	50.4%	52.7%	55.8%	0.94×	1.90
Q2 under 29.5	49.6%	47.3%	44.2%	1.07×	2.11
Q2 over 30.5	44.4%	41.8%	49.9%	0.84×	2.39
Q2 under 28.5	43.5%	41.8%	38.8%	1.08×	2.39
Q2 over 32.5	32.8%	32.6%	39.2%	0.83×	3.06
Q2 under 26.5	32.0%	32.6%	28.4%	1.15×	3.06
Q2 over 34.5	22.7%	23.2%	29.9%	0.78×	4.31
Q2 under 24.5	21.9%	23.2%	19.3%	1.20×	4.31
Q2 over 37.5	11.5%	12.7%	17.7%	0.72×	7.89
Q2 under 21.5	10.8%	12.7%	9.8%	1.30×	7.90

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels to win Q3	78.5%	81.6%	53.3%	1.53×	1.23
Brown Bears to win Q3	17.3%	15.1%	41.8%	0.36×	6.63
Q3 tied	4.2%	4.3%	4.9%	0.86×	23.45

Q3 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 over 24.5	88.5%	87.2%	89.9%	0.97×	1.15
Q3 under 40.5	88.1%	87.2%	81.9%	1.07×	1.15
Q3 over 27.5	77.3%	77.3%	80.0%	0.97×	1.29
Q3 under 37.5	77.0%	77.3%	69.7%	1.11×	1.29
Q3 over 29.5	67.4%	67.8%	71.8%	0.94×	1.48
Q3 under 35.5	67.1%	67.8%	59.7%	1.14×	1.48
Q3 over 31.5	56.0%	58.4%	61.6%	0.95×	1.71
Q3 under 33.5	55.8%	58.4%	49.1%	1.19×	1.71
Q3 over 32.5	50.1%	52.3%	56.1%	0.93×	1.91
Q3 under 32.5	49.9%	47.7%	43.9%	1.09×	2.10
Q3 over 33.5	44.2%	41.6%	50.9%	0.82×	2.40
Q3 under 31.5	44.0%	41.6%	38.4%	1.08×	2.40
Q3 over 35.5	32.9%	32.2%	40.3%	0.80×	3.10
Q3 under 29.5	32.6%	32.2%	28.2%	1.14×	3.10
Q3 over 37.5	23.0%	22.7%	30.3%	0.75×	4.40
Q3 under 27.5	22.7%	22.7%	20.0%	1.14×	4.40
Q3 over 40.5	11.9%	12.8%	18.1%	0.70×	7.83
Q3 under 24.5	11.5%	12.8%	10.1%	1.27×	7.83

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels to win Q4	78.0%	71.5%	52.8%	1.35×	1.40
Brown Bears to win Q4	17.8%	22.6%	41.5%	0.55×	4.42
Q4 tied	4.1%	5.2%	5.7%	0.91×	19.30

Q4 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 over 24.5	87.2%	85.6%	89.0%	0.96×	1.17
Q4 under 40.5	86.5%	85.6%	80.6%	1.06×	1.17
Q4 over 27.5	76.2%	76.9%	78.9%	0.97×	1.30
Q4 under 37.5	75.4%	76.9%	68.8%	1.12×	1.30
Q4 over 29.5	66.7%	67.4%	70.8%	0.95×	1.48
Q4 under 35.5	65.8%	67.4%	59.4%	1.14×	1.48
Q4 over 31.5	56.0%	58.4%	61.1%	0.96×	1.71
Q4 under 33.5	55.1%	58.4%	49.6%	1.18×	1.71
Q4 over 32.5	50.5%	52.5%	55.4%	0.95×	1.91
Q4 under 32.5	49.5%	47.5%	44.6%	1.07×	2.11
Q4 over 33.5	44.9%	41.6%	50.4%	0.83×	2.40
Q4 under 31.5	44.0%	41.6%	38.9%	1.07×	2.40
Q4 over 35.5	34.2%	32.6%	40.6%	0.80×	3.07
Q4 under 29.5	33.3%	32.6%	29.2%	1.12×	3.07
Q4 over 37.5	24.6%	23.1%	31.2%	0.74×	4.33
Q4 under 27.5	23.8%	23.1%	21.1%	1.09×	4.33
Q4 over 40.5	13.5%	14.4%	19.4%	0.74×	6.95
Q4 under 24.5	12.8%	14.4%	11.0%	1.31×	6.95

Team total 44

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brown Bears over 41.5	93.1%	86.5%	95.6%	0.90×	1.16
Brown Bears under 61.5	90.0%	86.4%	47.9%	1.80×	1.16
North Carolina Tar Heels under 83.5	86.3%	83.9%	87.7%	0.96×	1.19
North Carolina Tar Heels over 63.5	85.2%	83.9%	61.5%	1.37×	1.19
Brown Bears under 58.5	82.7%	80.7%	37.9%	2.13×	1.24
Brown Bears over 44.5	80.4%	80.7%	92.5%	0.87×	1.24
North Carolina Tar Heels under 80.5	78.1%	75.1%	82.9%	0.91×	1.33
North Carolina Tar Heels over 66.5	76.5%	75.1%	51.8%	1.45×	1.33
Brown Bears under 56.5	76.1%	75.1%	32.0%	2.35×	1.33
North Carolina Tar Heels under 78.5	71.3%	70.7%	79.4%	0.89×	1.41
Brown Bears over 46.5	70.8%	70.7%	89.7%	0.79×	1.41
North Carolina Tar Heels over 68.5	69.4%	66.4%	45.6%	1.46×	1.51
Brown Bears under 54.5	68.3%	66.4%	26.5%	2.51×	1.51
North Carolina Tar Heels under 76.5	63.6%	61.2%	75.4%	0.81×	1.63
North Carolina Tar Heels over 70.5	61.5%	61.2%	39.7%	1.54×	1.63
Brown Bears over 48.5	60.7%	61.2%	86.7%	0.71×	1.63
Brown Bears under 52.5	59.3%	57.1%	21.5%	2.65×	1.75
North Carolina Tar Heels under 74.5	55.4%	57.1%	70.7%	0.81×	1.75
Brown Bears under 51.5	54.5%	52.3%	19.0%	2.75×	1.91
North Carolina Tar Heels over 72.5	53.1%	52.3%	34.3%	1.52×	1.91
North Carolina Tar Heels under 73.5	51.1%	52.3%	68.5%	0.76×	1.91
Brown Bears over 50.5	50.5%	52.3%	83.1%	0.63×	1.91
Brown Bears under 50.5	49.5%	47.7%	16.9%	2.83×	2.09
North Carolina Tar Heels under 72.5	46.9%	47.7%	65.7%	0.73×	2.09
North Carolina Tar Heels over 73.5	48.9%	47.7%	31.5%	1.51×	2.09
Brown Bears over 51.5	45.5%	47.7%	81.0%	0.59×	2.09
North Carolina Tar Heels over 74.5	44.6%	42.9%	29.3%	1.47×	2.33
Brown Bears over 52.5	40.7%	42.9%	78.5%	0.55×	2.33
North Carolina Tar Heels under 70.5	38.5%	38.8%	60.3%	0.64×	2.58
Brown Bears under 48.5	39.3%	38.8%	13.3%	2.92×	2.58
North Carolina Tar Heels over 76.5	36.4%	38.8%	24.6%	1.58×	2.58
Brown Bears over 54.5	31.7%	33.6%	73.5%	0.46×	2.98
North Carolina Tar Heels under 68.5	30.6%	33.6%	54.4%	0.62×	2.98
North Carolina Tar Heels over 78.5	28.7%	29.3%	20.6%	1.42×	3.42
Brown Bears under 46.5	29.2%	29.3%	10.3%	2.84×	3.42
North Carolina Tar Heels under 66.5	23.5%	24.9%	48.2%	0.52×	4.02
Brown Bears over 56.5	23.9%	24.9%	68.0%	0.37×	4.02
North Carolina Tar Heels over 80.5	21.9%	24.9%	17.1%	1.46×	4.02
Brown Bears under 44.5	19.6%	19.3%	7.5%	2.58×	5.18
Brown Bears over 58.5	17.3%	19.3%	62.1%	0.31×	5.18
North Carolina Tar Heels under 63.5	14.8%	16.1%	38.5%	0.42×	6.21
North Carolina Tar Heels over 83.5	13.7%	16.1%	12.3%	1.31×	6.21
Brown Bears over 61.5	10.0%	13.6%	52.1%	0.26×	7.35
Brown Bears under 41.5	6.9%	13.5%	4.4%	3.06×	7.40

Total points 30

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 104.5 points	94.5%	88.8%	92.9%	0.96×	1.13
Under 144.5 points	92.7%	88.8%	78.1%	1.14×	1.13
Over 109.5 points	87.8%	85.0%	87.6%	0.97×	1.18
Under 139.5 points	86.6%	85.0%	69.9%	1.22×	1.18
Over 114.5 points	77.3%	75.6%	80.4%	0.94×	1.32
Under 134.5 points	77.5%	75.6%	60.2%	1.26×	1.32
Under 131.5 points	70.6%	70.8%	53.9%	1.31×	1.41
Over 117.5 points	69.5%	65.9%	75.3%	0.88×	1.52
Under 129.5 points	65.5%	65.9%	49.5%	1.33×	1.52
Over 119.5 points	63.8%	61.5%	71.6%	0.86×	1.63
Under 127.5 points	60.0%	56.5%	44.9%	1.26×	1.77
Over 121.5 points	57.8%	56.5%	67.7%	0.83×	1.77
Under 125.5 points	54.1%	52.3%	40.5%	1.29×	1.91
Over 123.5 points	51.8%	52.3%	63.3%	0.83×	1.91
Under 124.5 points	51.2%	52.3%	38.5%	1.36×	1.91
Over 124.5 points	48.8%	47.7%	61.5%	0.78×	2.10
Under 123.5 points	48.2%	47.7%	36.7%	1.30×	2.10
Over 125.5 points	45.9%	47.7%	59.5%	0.80×	2.10
Under 121.5 points	42.2%	43.5%	32.3%	1.35×	2.30
Over 127.5 points	40.1%	43.5%	55.1%	0.79×	2.30
Under 119.5 points	36.2%	38.5%	28.4%	1.36×	2.60
Over 129.5 points	34.5%	34.1%	50.5%	0.68×	2.93
Under 117.5 points	30.5%	34.1%	24.7%	1.38×	2.93
Over 131.5 points	29.4%	29.2%	46.1%	0.63×	3.43
Under 114.5 points	22.7%	24.4%	19.6%	1.25×	4.10
Over 134.5 points	22.5%	24.4%	39.8%	0.61×	4.10
Over 139.5 points	13.4%	15.0%	30.1%	0.50×	6.69
Under 109.5 points	12.2%	15.0%	12.4%	1.21×	6.69
Over 144.5 points	7.3%	11.2%	21.9%	0.51×	8.97
Under 104.5 points	5.5%	11.2%	7.1%	1.56×	8.97

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels to win both halves	77.3%	77.1%	36.0%	2.14×	1.30
Brown Bears to win both halves	0.4%	3.0%	20.4%	0.15×	33.83

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels by 26+	36.7%	39.7%	12.6%	3.15×	2.52
North Carolina Tar Heels by 21-25	18.8%	16.8%	5.4%	3.11×	5.97
North Carolina Tar Heels by 16-20	17.5%	16.8%	8.0%	2.08×	5.97
North Carolina Tar Heels by 11-15	13.1%	12.3%	10.8%	1.14×	8.11
North Carolina Tar Heels by 6-10	8.0%	7.5%	12.9%	0.58×	13.40
North Carolina Tar Heels by 1-5	4.0%	2.0%	10.2%	0.20×	49.29
Brown Bears by 1-5	1.3%	2.0%	10.2%	0.20×	49.32
Brown Bears by 6-10	0.4%	2.0%	10.3%	0.20×	49.32
Brown Bears by 11-15	0.1%	2.0%	7.6%	0.27×	49.33
Brown Bears by 16-20	0.0%	2.0%	4.8%	0.43×	49.33
Brown Bears by 21-25	0.0%	2.0%	2.7%	0.76×	49.33
Brown Bears by 26+	0.0%	2.0%	4.6%	0.44×	49.33

North Carolina Tar Heels v Brown Bears — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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