Results

Date	Match	Score	xG	xG diff	Model pick	Called
30 Aug 26	Dallas Wings v Connecticut Sun	97–71	—–—	—	84016	called it	analysis →
30 Aug 26	Portland Fire v Golden State Valkyries	69–86	—–—	—	27073	called it	analysis →
30 Aug 26	Seattle Storm v Los Angeles Sparks	74–90	—–—	—	60040	missed	analysis →
30 Aug 26	Atlanta Dream v Minnesota Lynx	89–81	—–—	—	50050	called it	analysis →
29 Aug 26	Phoenix Mercury v Toronto Tempo	101–69	—–—	—	68032	called it	analysis →
29 Aug 26	New York Liberty v Chicago Sky	85–66	—–—	—	73027	called it	analysis →
28 Aug 26	Los Angeles Sparks v Washington Mystics	88–82	—–—	—	42058	missed	analysis →
28 Aug 26	Las Vegas Aces v Toronto Tempo	93–73	—–—	—	85015	called it	analysis →
28 Aug 26	Indiana Fever v Connecticut Sun	111–91	—–—	—	90010	called it	analysis →
28 Aug 26	Atlanta Dream v Portland Fire	83–101	—–—	—	84016	missed	analysis →
27 Aug 26	Phoenix Mercury v Washington Mystics	73–80	—–—	—	48052	called it	analysis →
27 Aug 26	New York Liberty v Golden State Valkyries	60–79	—–—	—	48052	called it	analysis →
26 Aug 26	Seattle Storm v Toronto Tempo	90–78	—–—	—	65035	called it	analysis →
26 Aug 26	Connecticut Sun v Golden State Valkyries	64–89	—–—	—	17083	called it	analysis →
25 Aug 26	Phoenix Mercury v Washington Mystics	84–94	—–—	—	48052	called it	analysis →
25 Aug 26	Dallas Wings v Portland Fire	96–78	—–—	—	75025	called it	analysis →
25 Aug 26	Connecticut Sun v Chicago Sky	87–81	—–—	—	39061	missed	analysis →
24 Aug 26	Los Angeles Sparks v Atlanta Dream	71–78	—–—	—	24076	called it	analysis →
24 Aug 26	Minnesota Lynx v Golden State Valkyries	66–80	—–—	—	65035	missed	analysis →
23 Aug 26	Toronto Tempo v Las Vegas Aces	78–88	—–—	—	25075	called it	analysis →
23 Aug 26	Portland Fire v Washington Mystics	100–105	—–—	—	45055	called it	analysis →
23 Aug 26	Chicago Sky v Indiana Fever	90–113	—–—	—	32068	called it	analysis →
23 Aug 26	Dallas Wings v Seattle Storm	92–70	—–—	—	75025	called it	analysis →
22 Aug 26	Phoenix Mercury v Atlanta Dream	89–99	—–—	—	39061	called it	analysis →
22 Aug 26	Los Angeles Sparks v Connecticut Sun	77–68	—–—	—	67033	called it	analysis →
22 Aug 26	New York Liberty v Indiana Fever	109–102	—–—	—	50050	missed	analysis →
21 Aug 26	Toronto Tempo v Portland Fire	82–79	—–—	—	49051	missed	analysis →
21 Aug 26	Chicago Sky v Golden State Valkyries	73–70	—–—	—	31069	missed	analysis →
21 Aug 26	Washington Mystics v Minnesota Lynx	84–94	—–—	—	32068	called it	analysis →
20 Aug 26	Los Angeles Sparks v Atlanta Dream	88–124	—–—	—	36064	called it	analysis →
20 Aug 26	Las Vegas Aces v Connecticut Sun	101–78	—–—	—	85015	called it	analysis →
20 Aug 26	Dallas Wings v Indiana Fever	91–85	—–—	—	46054	missed	analysis →
19 Aug 26	Golden State Valkyries v Minnesota Lynx	66–77	—–—	—	52048	missed	analysis →
19 Aug 26	Washington Mystics v Toronto Tempo	93–82	—–—	—	76024	called it	analysis →
18 Aug 26	Las Vegas Aces v Atlanta Dream	82–97	—–—	—	60040	missed	analysis →
18 Aug 26	Chicago Sky v New York Liberty	93–86	—–—	—	39061	missed	analysis →
18 Aug 26	Toronto Tempo v Indiana Fever	95–101	—–—	—	20080	called it	analysis →
18 Aug 26	Connecticut Sun v Los Angeles Sparks	85–77	—–—	—	48052	missed	analysis →
17 Aug 26	Golden State Valkyries v Dallas Wings	78–70	—–—	—	69031	called it	analysis →
16 Aug 26	Phoenix Mercury v Portland Fire	85–88	—–—	—	64036	missed	analysis →
16 Aug 26	Atlanta Dream v Indiana Fever	91–95	—–—	—	50050	called it	analysis →
16 Aug 26	Seattle Storm v Chicago Sky	80–82	—–—	—	53047	missed	analysis →
15 Aug 26	Las Vegas Aces v Minnesota Lynx	87–92	—–—	—	46054	called it	analysis →
15 Aug 26	Washington Mystics v Los Angeles Sparks	80–70	—–—	—	67033	called it	analysis →
15 Aug 26	Connecticut Sun v New York Liberty	75–82	—–—	—	27073	called it	analysis →
14 Aug 26	Seattle Storm v Portland Fire	82–84	—–—	—	59041	missed	analysis →
14 Aug 26	Indiana Fever v Dallas Wings	98–87	—–—	—	69031	called it	analysis →
13 Aug 26	Las Vegas Aces v Washington Mystics	83–76	—–—	—	71029	called it	analysis →
13 Aug 26	New York Liberty v Los Angeles Sparks	85–81	—–—	—	77023	called it	analysis →
13 Aug 26	Connecticut Sun v Atlanta Dream	69–104	—–—	—	27073	called it	analysis →
12 Aug 26	Portland Fire v Minnesota Lynx	81–85	—–—	—	22078	called it	analysis →
12 Aug 26	Golden State Valkyries v Chicago Sky	91–71	—–—	—	81019	called it	analysis →
12 Aug 26	Dallas Wings v Toronto Tempo	94–88	—–—	—	81019	called it	analysis →
11 Aug 26	Los Angeles Sparks v Phoenix Mercury	87–94	—–—	—	49051	called it	analysis →
11 Aug 26	Las Vegas Aces v Washington Mystics	86–76	—–—	—	74026	called it	analysis →
11 Aug 26	Indiana Fever v New York Liberty	106–92	—–—	—	67033	called it	analysis →
10 Aug 26	Seattle Storm v Chicago Sky	97–88	—–—	—	50050	called it	analysis →
10 Aug 26	Atlanta Dream v Toronto Tempo	107–95	—–—	—	84016	called it	analysis →
9 Aug 26	Los Angeles Sparks v Golden State Valkyries	78–84	—–—	—	27073	called it	analysis →
9 Aug 26	Minnesota Lynx v Dallas Wings	103–90	—–—	—	71029	called it	analysis →

44 of 60 most-likely calls landed — 73%. Always backing the home side over the same matches would have called 53%, so the model is +20 points ahead of that.

Picking the most likely of three outcomes is a coarse test: it ignores how confident the model was, and a model can be right more often while forecasting worse. The measured versions are on Model, Calibration and Receipts.

The model pick is the out-of-sample forecast: made by a model fitted only on matches played before that one, so it is what the model actually said in advance. A dash means no forecast was on record before kick-off.