Measured, not claimed
When we say 68%,
it happens
69%
of the time.
Every probability on this site has been graded against what actually happened, out of sample, 529,022 times. The plot below is that grading, not a promise about it.
said 3% · landed 2.2% · 92,350 results
said 8% · landed 6.8% · 56,285 results
said 13% · landed 11.5% · 38,522 results
said 18% · landed 17.2% · 37,772 results
said 23% · landed 22.5% · 41,838 results
said 28% · landed 26.6% · 30,179 results
said 33% · landed 31.9% · 22,206 results
said 38% · landed 37.6% · 21,646 results
said 43% · landed 42.3% · 19,740 results
said 48% · landed 47.4% · 26,712 results
said 53% · landed 52.4% · 23,672 results
said 58% · landed 57.4% · 15,826 results
said 63% · landed 62.8% · 15,348 results
said 68% · landed 68.8% · 13,093 results
said 73% · landed 73.8% · 14,588 results
said 78% · landed 79.0% · 14,643 results
said 83% · landed 83.4% · 12,785 results
said 88% · landed 89.0% · 11,630 results
said 93% · landed 93.6% · 10,683 results
said 98% · landed 97.2% · 9,504 results
What you can do here
Scan the board
Every market across every league, ranked by how much evidence sits behind
the call rather than by how big the price is.
Price one match
Open a fixture and the model reads both sides' whole recorded history,
then prices every market on it and shows its working.
Check a slip you already have
Paste a booking code. Each leg is judged against our own number, and the
weak ones can be swapped for something the record supports.
Every figure on this page is a model estimate, not a certainty. A 70% call loses three times in ten, and this page exists to show you exactly how often. Please bet responsibly, and only what you can afford to lose.