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Model probabilities from 'nba-normal'

How to read this table
The coloured bar is the model's split between home win and away win — there is no draw, because overtime resolves one. Projected is the score the model expects, Spread is the margin that follows from it, and Total is the combined points. A projection is the centre of a wide distribution: the typical game lands about 11 points either side of the projected margin, so treat the spread as a lean, not a forecast. For ranked selections across every market, use the Radar.
Order
One list, earliest first, whatever the competition.
Leagues
Ticking none shows them all.
Tip-off Fixture Home / Away Projected Spread Total
Thu 17 Sep
23:30
Atlanta Dream v Connecticut Sun 91.8–76.7 H −15.0 168.5
Fri 18 Sep
00:00
Chicago Sky v Washington Mystics 83.1–84.5 A −1.5 167.7
Fri 18 Sep
00:00
Dallas Wings v Los Angeles Sparks 93.6–84.8 H −9.0 178.5
Fri 18 Sep
02:00
Portland Fire v Phoenix Mercury 88.4–87.5 H −1.0 175.9
Fri 18 Sep
02:00
Seattle Storm v Las Vegas Aces 82.9–89.5 A −6.5 172.4
Fri 18 Sep
23:30
Toronto Tempo v Indiana Fever 91.3–102.7 A −11.5 194.1
Fri 18 Sep
23:30
Minnesota Lynx v New York Liberty 91.9–85.7 H −6.0 177.5
Sat 19 Sep
02:00
Golden State Valkyries v Portland Fire 86.9–74.2 H −12.5 161.1
Sat 19 Sep
17:00
Dallas Wings v Phoenix Mercury 89.6–82.1 H −7.5 171.6
Sat 19 Sep
23:00
Atlanta Dream v Chicago Sky 94.0–83.9 H −10.0 177.9
Sun 20 Sep
01:00
Golden State Valkyries v Seattle Storm 83.4–69.7 H −13.5 153.1
Sun 20 Sep
17:00
Connecticut Sun v Minnesota Lynx 77.4–90.4 A −13.0 167.8
Sun 20 Sep
19:00
Toronto Tempo v New York Liberty 87.1–95.3 A −8.0 182.4
Sun 20 Sep
20:00
Indiana Fever v Washington Mystics 93.7–86.0 H −7.5 179.7
Sun 20 Sep
23:00
Los Angeles Sparks v Portland Fire 92.2–90.6 H −1.5 182.8
Mon 21 Sep
01:00
Las Vegas Aces v Seattle Storm 91.4–81.0 H −10.5 172.4
Tue 22 Sep
00:00
New York Liberty v Atlanta Dream 88.9–89.3 A −0.5 178.2
Tue 22 Sep
02:00
Phoenix Mercury v Dallas Wings 84.0–87.6 A −3.5 171.6
Tue 22 Sep
23:30
Washington Mystics v Connecticut Sun 84.2–74.1 H −10.0 158.3
Wed 23 Sep
00:00
Indiana Fever v Minnesota Lynx 95.0–94.2 H −1.0 189.2
Wed 23 Sep
00:00
Chicago Sky v Toronto Tempo 94.1–87.9 H −6.0 182.0
Wed 23 Sep
02:00
Las Vegas Aces v Los Angeles Sparks 94.8–85.1 H −9.5 179.9
Wed 23 Sep
02:00
Portland Fire v Golden State Valkyries 76.1–84.9 A −9.0 161.1
Thu 24 Sep
00:00
New York Liberty v Atlanta Dream 88.9–89.3 A −0.5 178.2
Thu 24 Sep
02:00
Seattle Storm v Dallas Wings 82.6–88.4 A −6.0 171.0
Thu 24 Sep
23:00
Connecticut Sun v Toronto Tempo 87.0–85.7 H −1.5 172.7
Thu 24 Sep
23:30
Washington Mystics v Chicago Sky 86.5–81.2 H −5.5 167.7
Fri 25 Sep
00:00
Minnesota Lynx v Indiana Fever 96.1–93.1 H −3.0 189.2
Fri 25 Sep
02:00
Los Angeles Sparks v Golden State Valkyries 75.8–84.9 A −9.0 160.7
Fri 25 Sep
02:00
Phoenix Mercury v Las Vegas Aces 84.3–88.7 A −4.5 173.1
Sat 3 Oct
23:00
Toronto Raptors v Miami Heat 119.6–116.3 H −3.0 235.9
Sun 4 Oct
23:00
Denver Nuggets v Utah Jazz 132.1–117.5 H −14.5 249.6
Mon 5 Oct
23:00
Atlanta Hawks v Memphis Grizzlies 125.8–114.7 H −11.0 240.5
Mon 5 Oct
23:00
Detroit Pistons v Phoenix Suns 112.3–104.7 H −7.5 217.0
Mon 5 Oct
23:00
Philadelphia 76ers v New York Knicks 106.3–115.4 A −9.0 221.7
Tue 6 Oct
00:00
Milwaukee Bucks v Minnesota Timberwolves 109.6–116.9 A −7.5 226.5
Tue 6 Oct
02:00
Sacramento Kings v Los Angeles Lakers 110.1–119.2 A −9.0 229.2
Tue 6 Oct
23:00
Charlotte Hornets v Brooklyn Nets 116.9–99.6 H −17.5 216.6
Wed 7 Oct
00:00
Oklahoma City Thunder v New Orleans Pelicans 124.3–108.1 H −16.0 232.4
Wed 7 Oct
01:00
Utah Jazz v Denver Nuggets 119.3–130.3 A −11.0 249.6

Latest results

DateMatchPoints
30 Aug 26 Dallas Wings v Connecticut Sun 97–71 analysis →
30 Aug 26 Portland Fire v Golden State Valkyries 69–86 analysis →
30 Aug 26 Seattle Storm v Los Angeles Sparks 74–90 analysis →
30 Aug 26 Atlanta Dream v Minnesota Lynx 89–81 analysis →
29 Aug 26 Phoenix Mercury v Toronto Tempo 101–69 analysis →
29 Aug 26 New York Liberty v Chicago Sky 85–66 analysis →
28 Aug 26 Los Angeles Sparks v Washington Mystics 88–82 analysis →
28 Aug 26 Las Vegas Aces v Toronto Tempo 93–73 analysis →
28 Aug 26 Indiana Fever v Connecticut Sun 111–91 analysis →
28 Aug 26 Atlanta Dream v Portland Fire 83–101 analysis →
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Upcoming fixtures

What this page is for

The diary. Every fixture already ingested and priced appears here in tip-off order, whether the model has a strong opinion about it or not. It is the complete list, not a shortlist.

How to read a row

The coloured bar is the model's split between home win and away win — there is no draw, because overtime resolves one. Projected is the score the model expects, Spread is the margin that follows from it, and Total is the combined points.

The likeliest exact scoreline is rarely a likely one — in a typical football match the most probable score sits somewhere around one chance in ten. Read it as the shape the model expects, not as a forecast of the result.

What it will not tell you

Nothing here is ranked by how good a bet it is. A fixture the model is almost indifferent about sits in the same list as one it has a firm view on.

Where to go next

Radar ranks selections across every market. Clicking any fixture opens its Match page, where the shot map, the xG timeline and every stored market price live.

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