About betaider
Calibrated predictions with a record you can check
What betaider is
betaider is a statistical prediction site for football and 4 other sports. For every fixture it holds, a model estimates the probability of each outcome and of the markets a bookmaker prices — the result, goals, both teams to score, handicaps and the rest — and shows those probabilities as fair odds.
The one thing that sets it apart is that every prediction is written down before the match and scored after it. The track record is sealed day by day and cannot be edited; the calibration page shows whether things we called 60% likely happened about 60% of the time. When a league's model does not beat a simple base rate, the site says so on that league's page and holds its picks back.
What it is not
It is not a tipster and it does not know who will win. A 70% probability loses three times in ten, and the site's whole design is built around being honest about that. Nothing here is a guarantee, a "sure thing" or a fixed match, and any site that tells you otherwise is not describing statistics.
How it is built
The models are described on the methodology page and the data on the data sources page. As of today the database holds 73,670 completed matches, which is the history every prediction is fitted on.
Betting tools
Because many readers bet, the site can read a booking code from a bookmaker, judge each leg against the model, and convert a slip between bookmakers. Those tools only ever act on selections you chose; they do not place bets. Please read the responsible betting page.
Who is behind it
betaider is an independent site. It is not affiliated with any league, club or bookmaker, and it takes no payment to rank one bookmaker above another. Questions and corrections are welcome through the contact page.