Internazionale & over 1.5
Confidence67.6%
Base rate30.0%
Lift2.25×
Fair odds1.48
Radar
Scan any mix of football markets and leagues for the strongest selections
Best predictions — top 8
1 / 8
ESP-La Liga 
Racing Santander leading at HT
Confidence71.7%
Base rate35.0%
Lift2.05×
Fair odds1.40
POR-Primeira Liga 
Benfica (DNB)
Confidence80.2%
Base rate42.8%
Lift1.88×
Fair odds1.25
Zenit St Petersburg
Maksim Glushenkov 5g · 2a
v
RUS-Premier League 
Dynamo Makhachkala
Nikita Glushkov 2g · 2a
Dynamo Makhachkala under 0.5 goals
Confidence68.0%
Base rate32.5%
Lift2.09×
Fair odds1.47
Atalanta over 0.5 in 1st half
Confidence79.0%
Base rate42.1%
Lift1.87×
Fair odds1.27
Juventus (-0.5)
Confidence68.7%
Base rate33.6%
Lift2.04×
Fair odds1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half
Confidence63.6%
Base rate29.9%
Lift2.13×
Fair odds1.57
JPN-J League 
Cerezo Osaka over 1.5 goals
Confidence74.2%
Base rate39.2%
Lift1.89×
Fair odds1.35
New here? How to use the radar
Set how many picks and which leagues — everything else has a
sensible default. Then read the Calibrated column, not Model: it is the
probability after the model has been corrected by its own track record.
- Rank by Signal (default) gives picks that actually say something. Most likely to land returns safer but more obvious selections.
- Lift is the quickest read:
3.0×means three times likelier than that selection normally is in the league. - Fair odds is break-even. Only worth backing at a longer price.
- Keep one pick per match on — two picks from the same game tend to win or lose together.
- Set Look ahead to Today or This week for the day's or week's best, then use Back and Next below the table to move past the top ten.
On this page
10 of 287
Average confidence
63.4%
All correct
0.97%
Combined fair odds
102.65
“All correct” multiplies the picks together as if they were independent. That holds reasonably across different matches, but it would break if two picks came from the same match.
Top 10 · 1–10 of 287 this week, by strongest signal
| Rank | Match | Pick | Chance | Edge over base | Fair odds | Evidence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
 SC Cambuur v
 Go Ahead Eagles
 NED-Eredivisie results-only
|
Go Ahead Eagles over 2.5 goals | 71.9% | +56.8 | 1.39 | 4,594 ≠ 49% | |
| 2 |
 PSV Eindhoven v
 Willem II
NED-Eredivisie results-only
|
PSV Eindhoven (0:2) | 62.9% | +49.7 | 1.59 | 527 ≠ 54% | |
| 3 |
 Inter Miami CF v
 Cincinnati
 USA-MLS results-only
|
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 55.8% | +43.6 | 1.79 | 3,284 ≠ 38% | |
| 4 |
 Schalke 04 v
 RasenBallsport Leipzig
 GER-Bundesliga xG
|
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 55.8% | +43.0 | 1.79 | 3,284 ≠ 23% | |
| 5 |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers v
 Cardiff City
 ENG-Championship results-only
|
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | +42.5 | 1.71 | 3,921 ≠ 44% | |
| 6 |
 Vasco da Gama v
 Flamengo
 BRA-Serie A results-only
|
Flamengo (DNB) | 80.2% | +47.3 | 1.25 | 797 ✓ 78% | |
| 7 |
 Venezia v
 Internazionale
 ITA-Serie A xG
|
Internazionale & over 1.5 | 67.7% | +43.1 | 1.48 | 350 ✓ 63% | |
| 8 |
 Al Hilal v
 Al Fateh
 KSA-Pro League results-only
|
Al Hilal (-1.5) | 62.9% | +40.7 | 1.59 | 4,968 ≠ 57% | |
| 9 |
 Al Nassr FC v
 Al Kholood
KSA-Pro League results-only
|
Al Nassr FC (-1.5) | 62.9% | +40.7 | 1.59 | 4,968 ≠ 57% | |
| 10 |
Internazionale v
 Fiorentina
ITA-Serie A xG
|
Internazionale over 1.5 in 2nd half | 55.0% | +36.4 | 1.82 | 735 ≠ 45% |
How these are ranked
- Model is the raw probability from the scoreline distribution.
- Calibrated corrects it by how often the model was actually right, out of sample, when it made claims in that probability band for that market. The correction is shrunk toward the raw number when the evidence is thin, so a handful of past results cannot swing a pick.
- Base rate is how often that selection has simply been true in that league. Edge is calibrated minus base rate — it separates a pick that knows something from one that is merely obvious. “Under 4.5 goals” is 92% likely in every match ever played; that is arithmetic, not a read.
- Fair odds is 1 ÷ calibrated. It is the break-even price. A bookmaker offering longer than this is the only situation where a bet has value — and they rarely do.
Ranking is by calibrated probability, so the top pick is the single most likely outcome, not the most profitable one. Those are different questions, and only the first can be answered without bookmaker prices.