Results

Date	Match	Score	xG	xG diff	Model pick	Called
14 Jun 26	Vegas Golden Knights v Carolina Hurricanes	0–3	—–—	—	401843	called it	analysis →
11 Jun 26	Carolina Hurricanes v Vegas Golden Knights	4–2	—–—	—	511732	called it	analysis →
9 Jun 26	Vegas Golden Knights v Carolina Hurricanes	3–5	—–—	—	401843	called it	analysis →
6 Jun 26	Vegas Golden Knights v Carolina Hurricanes	5–4	—–—	—	401843	missed	analysis →
4 Jun 26	Carolina Hurricanes v Vegas Golden Knights	4–3	—–—	—	511732	called it	analysis →
2 Jun 26	Carolina Hurricanes v Vegas Golden Knights	4–5	—–—	—	511732	missed	analysis →
29 May 26	Carolina Hurricanes v Montreal Canadiens	6–1	—–—	—	511732	called it	analysis →
27 May 26	Montreal Canadiens v Carolina Hurricanes	0–4	—–—	—	391843	called it	analysis →
26 May 26	Vegas Golden Knights v Colorado Avalanche	2–1	—–—	—	331849	missed	analysis →
25 May 26	Montreal Canadiens v Carolina Hurricanes	2–3	—–—	—	391843	called it	analysis →
24 May 26	Vegas Golden Knights v Colorado Avalanche	5–3	—–—	—	331849	missed	analysis →
23 May 26	Carolina Hurricanes v Montreal Canadiens	3–2	—–—	—	511732	called it	analysis →
22 May 26	Colorado Avalanche v Vegas Golden Knights	1–3	—–—	—	571726	missed	analysis →
21 May 26	Carolina Hurricanes v Montreal Canadiens	2–6	—–—	—	511732	missed	analysis →
20 May 26	Colorado Avalanche v Vegas Golden Knights	2–4	—–—	—	571726	missed	analysis →
18 May 26	Buffalo Sabres v Montreal Canadiens	2–3	—–—	—	511732	missed	analysis →
16 May 26	Montreal Canadiens v Buffalo Sabres	3–8	—–—	—	401742	called it	analysis →
14 May 26	Anaheim Ducks v Vegas Golden Knights	1–5	—–—	—	361747	called it	analysis →
14 May 26	Buffalo Sabres v Montreal Canadiens	3–6	—–—	—	511732	missed	analysis →
13 May 26	Colorado Avalanche v Minnesota Wild	4–3	—–—	—	581626	called it	analysis →
12 May 26	Vegas Golden Knights v Anaheim Ducks	3–2	—–—	—	561628	called it	analysis →
12 May 26	Montreal Canadiens v Buffalo Sabres	2–3	—–—	—	401742	called it	analysis →
11 May 26	Minnesota Wild v Colorado Avalanche	2–5	—–—	—	331750	called it	analysis →
10 May 26	Anaheim Ducks v Vegas Golden Knights	4–3	—–—	—	361747	missed	analysis →
10 May 26	Montreal Canadiens v Buffalo Sabres	6–2	—–—	—	401742	missed	analysis →
9 May 26	Minnesota Wild v Colorado Avalanche	5–1	—–—	—	331750	missed	analysis →
9 May 26	Philadelphia Flyers v Carolina Hurricanes	2–3	—–—	—	351847	called it	analysis →
8 May 26	Anaheim Ducks v Vegas Golden Knights	2–6	—–—	—	361747	called it	analysis →
8 May 26	Buffalo Sabres v Montreal Canadiens	1–5	—–—	—	511732	missed	analysis →
7 May 26	Philadelphia Flyers v Carolina Hurricanes	1–4	—–—	—	361747	called it	analysis →
6 May 26	Vegas Golden Knights v Anaheim Ducks	1–3	—–—	—	531631	missed	analysis →
6 May 26	Buffalo Sabres v Montreal Canadiens	4–2	—–—	—	511633	called it	analysis →
5 May 26	Colorado Avalanche v Minnesota Wild	5–2	—–—	—	571626	called it	analysis →
4 May 26	Vegas Golden Knights v Anaheim Ducks	3–1	—–—	—	531631	called it	analysis →
4 May 26	Carolina Hurricanes v Philadelphia Flyers	3–2	—–—	—	551728	called it	analysis →
3 May 26	Colorado Avalanche v Minnesota Wild	9–6	—–—	—	571626	called it	analysis →
3 May 26	Tampa Bay Lightning v Montreal Canadiens	1–2	—–—	—	561529	missed	analysis →
2 May 26	Carolina Hurricanes v Philadelphia Flyers	3–0	—–—	—	551728	called it	analysis →
1 May 26	Utah Mammoth v Vegas Golden Knights	1–5	—–—	—	451837	missed	analysis →
1 May 26	Boston Bruins v Buffalo Sabres	1–4	—–—	—	401744	called it	analysis →
1 May 26	Montreal Canadiens v Tampa Bay Lightning	0–1	—–—	—	371647	called it	analysis →
30 Apr 26	Anaheim Ducks v Edmonton Oilers	5–2	—–—	—	401644	missed	analysis →
30 Apr 26	Minnesota Wild v Dallas Stars	5–2	—–—	—	411841	missed	analysis →
29 Apr 26	Vegas Golden Knights v Utah Mammoth	5–4	—–—	—	451837	called it	analysis →
29 Apr 26	Philadelphia Flyers v Pittsburgh Penguins	1–0	—–—	—	401743	missed	analysis →
29 Apr 26	Tampa Bay Lightning v Montreal Canadiens	2–3	—–—	—	561529	missed	analysis →
28 Apr 26	Edmonton Oilers v Anaheim Ducks	4–1	—–—	—	531532	called it	analysis →
28 Apr 26	Dallas Stars v Minnesota Wild	2–4	—–—	—	491833	missed	analysis →
28 Apr 26	Buffalo Sabres v Boston Bruins	1–2	—–—	—	521632	missed	analysis →
27 Apr 26	Utah Mammoth v Vegas Golden Knights	4–5	—–—	—	451837	missed	analysis →
27 Apr 26	Pittsburgh Penguins v Philadelphia Flyers	3–2	—–—	—	521732	called it	analysis →
26 Apr 26	Anaheim Ducks v Edmonton Oilers	4–3	—–—	—	401644	missed	analysis →
26 Apr 26	Montreal Canadiens v Tampa Bay Lightning	2–3	—–—	—	371647	called it	analysis →
26 Apr 26	Los Angeles Kings v Colorado Avalanche	1–5	—–—	—	291853	called it	analysis →
26 Apr 26	Boston Bruins v Buffalo Sabres	1–6	—–—	—	401744	called it	analysis →
25 Apr 26	Philadelphia Flyers v Pittsburgh Penguins	2–4	—–—	—	401743	called it	analysis →
25 Apr 26	Minnesota Wild v Dallas Stars	3–2	—–—	—	411841	missed	analysis →
25 Apr 26	Ottawa Senators v Carolina Hurricanes	2–4	—–—	—	441739	missed	analysis →
24 Apr 26	Anaheim Ducks v Edmonton Oilers	6–4	—–—	—	401644	missed	analysis →
24 Apr 26	Utah Mammoth v Vegas Golden Knights	4–2	—–—	—	451837	called it	analysis →

33 of 60 most-likely calls landed — 55%. Always backing the home side over the same matches would have called 47%, so the model is +8 points ahead of that.

Picking the most likely of three outcomes is a coarse test: it ignores how confident the model was, and a model can be right more often while forecasting worse. The measured versions are on Model, Calibration and Receipts.

The model pick is the out-of-sample forecast: made by a model fitted only on matches played before that one, so it is what the model actually said in advance. A dash means no forecast was on record before kick-off.