Results

Date	Match	Score	xG	xG diff	Model pick	Called
4 Sep 26	Jessica Bouzas Maneiro v Elena Rybakina	6–12	—–—	—	8092	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Paula Badosa v Coco Gauff	10–13	—–—	—	13087	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Iva Jovic v FJFrancesca Jones	12–8	—–—	—	81019	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Maria Sakkari v Yuliia Starodubtseva	14–14	—–—	—	58042	missed	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Mirra Andreeva v ELEva Lys	12–2	—–—	—	9505	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	ZQZheng Qinwen v YPYulia Putintseva	14–11	—–—	—	54046	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Cristina Bucsa v HSHimeno Sakatsume	20–19	—–—	—	54046	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	OOOleksandra Oliynykova v Alexandra Eala	5–12	—–—	—	23077	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Nikola Bartunkova v TMTatjana Maria	18–12	—–—	—	53047	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	HDHarriet Dart v Marie Bouzkova	4–12	—–—	—	22078	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	LTLilli Tagger v Amanda Anisimova	10–15	—–—	—	16084	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Naomi Osaka v Katerina Siniakova	17–10	—–—	—	73027	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	MTMaria Timofeeva v Elise Mertens	8–13	—–—	—	29071	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Anastasia Potapova v LJLeolia Jeanjean	14–13	—–—	—	77023	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Madison Keys v ABAnna Bondar	18–17	—–—	—	81019	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Iga Swiatek v NPNadia Podoroska	12–5	—–—	—	—	—	analysis →
3 Sep 26	LTLanlana Tararudee v Linda Noskova	6–12	—–—	—	19081	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Elina Svitolina v MJMaya Joint	18–13	—–—	—	9505	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	BYBu Yunchaokete v MZMichael Zheng	14–20	—–—	—	35065	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	GMGael Monfils v Learner Tien	10–18	—–—	—	34066	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	ZSZachary Svajda v AGArthur Gea	14–23	—–—	—	49051	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Zizou Bergs v JDJesper de Jong	21–19	—–—	—	61039	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Botic Van De Zandschulp v Alex de Minaur	19–11	—–—	—	34066	missed	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Benjamin Bonzi v IBIgnacio Buse	19–8	—–—	—	44056	missed	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Alexander Blockx v MTMarco Trungelliti	21–12	—–—	—	66034	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	TSTristan Schoolkate v Flavio Cobolli	18–22	—–—	—	20080	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Alexei Popyrin v ATAlejandro Tabilo	20–22	—–—	—	34066	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Jakub Mensik v JRJurij Rodionov	21–14	—–—	—	74026	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Dane Sweeny v Lorenzo Musetti	21–11	—–—	—	18082	missed	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Taylor Fritz v MBMattia Bellucci	18–2	—–—	—	76024	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Jan-Lennard Struff v Francisco Cerundolo	23–28	—–—	—	25075	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Luciano Darderi v DSDalibor Svrcina	24–18	—–—	—	62038	called it	analysis →
3 Sep 26	Felix Auger-Aliassime v Karen Khachanov	14–24	—–—	—	70030	missed	analysis →
3 Sep 26	JFJaime Faria v Carlos Alcaraz	11–22	—–—	—	16084	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	ALAnn Li v Donna Vekic	18–17	—–—	—	53047	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	Aryna Sabalenka v PIPolina Iatcenko	12–2	—–—	—	9604	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	Iva Jovic v MFMagdalena Frech	13–8	—–—	—	79021	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	KBKimberly Birrell v Ekaterina Alexandrova	10–14	—–—	—	41059	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	TMTatjana Maria v Jelena Ostapenko	16–9	—–—	—	38062	missed	analysis →
2 Sep 26	WXWang Xinyu v Anna Kalinskaya	14–15	—–—	—	36064	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	Magda Linette v FJFrancesca Jones	13–13	—–—	—	50050	missed	analysis →
2 Sep 26	Katie Boulter v Karolina Muchova	1–12	—–—	—	14086	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	OSOksana Selekhmeteva v Kamilla Rakhimova	3–12	—–—	—	33067	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	Nikola Bartunkova v MSMayar Sherif	12–3	—–—	—	58042	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	Marta Kostyuk v SSSloane Stephens	13–6	—–—	—	9406	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	Emma Navarro v Catherine McNally	15–11	—–—	—	45055	missed	analysis →
2 Sep 26	Daria Kasatkina v Paula Badosa	5–12	—–—	—	46054	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	Jessica Pegula v Sofia Kenin	12–4	—–—	—	9604	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	DPDiane Parry v Sorana Cirstea	7–13	—–—	—	18082	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	Karolina Pliskova v Diana Shnaider	7–13	—–—	—	20080	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	TTTaylor Townsend v TPTaylah Preston	12–2	—–—	—	74026	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	Jasmine Paolini v LSLucrezia Stefanini	12–5	—–—	—	83017	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	MSMananchaya Sawangkaew v Leylah Fernandez	5–12	—–—	—	43057	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	MSMary Stoiana v Alexandra Eala	3–12	—–—	—	18082	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	DPDino Prizmic v Tommy Paul	16–23	—–—	—	36064	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	Alexander Bublik v Adrian Mannarino	18–5	—–—	—	73027	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	Valentin Vacherot v Kamil Majchrzak	23–18	—–—	—	61039	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	RSRei Sakamoto v Frances Tiafoe	14–20	—–—	—	22078	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	Matteo Berrettini v Mariano Navone	19–22	—–—	—	41059	called it	analysis →
2 Sep 26	JDJames Duckworth v WYWu Yibing	9–19	—–—	—	55045	missed	analysis →

50 of 59 most-likely calls landed — 85%. Always backing the home side over the same matches would have called 50%, so the model is +35 points ahead of that. 1 match had no forecast on record and is not counted.

Picking the most likely of three outcomes is a coarse test: it ignores how confident the model was, and a model can be right more often while forecasting worse. The measured versions are on Model, Calibration and Receipts.

The model pick is the out-of-sample forecast: made by a model fitted only on matches played before that one, so it is what the model actually said in advance. A dash means no forecast was on record before kick-off.