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Philadelphia 76ers v New York Knicks — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 5 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Philadelphia 76ers win
25.9%
Draw
0.0%
New York Knicks win
74.1%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 106.30–115.42 106-115 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to score 100+ 91.5% 90.3% 85.9% 1.05× 1.11
Philadelphia 76ers to score 100+ 71.4% 72.3% 89.3% 0.81× 1.38
New York Knicks to score 110+ 69.7% 63.9% 60.9% 1.05× 1.57
Both sides to score 100+ 66.5% 63.8% 77.5% 0.82× 1.57
Philadelphia 76ers to score 110+ 38.9% 36.0% 67.0% 0.54× 2.78
New York Knicks to score 120+ 36.7% 36.0% 29.7% 1.21× 2.78
Philadelphia 76ers to score 120+ 13.0% 13.8% 36.5% 0.38× 7.23
New York Knicks to score 130+ 11.6% 13.8% 10.0% 1.38× 7.24
Philadelphia 76ers to score 130+ 2.4% 0.4% 12.8% 0.03× 282.88
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win H1 64.6% 62.3% 44.1% 1.41× 1.61
Philadelphia 76ers to win H1 32.2% 33.1% 52.8% 0.63× 3.02
H1 tied 3.2% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.87
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 125.5 82.7% 83.2% 80.7% 1.03× 1.20
H1 over 101.5 81.2% 83.2% 84.9% 0.98× 1.20
H1 under 124.5 83.4% 82.5% 78.4% 1.05× 1.21
H1 over 100.5 81.0% 82.5% 86.8% 0.95× 1.21
H1 under 121.5 73.8% 74.0% 71.2% 1.04× 1.35
H1 over 105.5 71.9% 74.0% 75.8% 0.98× 1.35
H1 under 120.5 74.6% 73.5% 68.4% 1.07× 1.36
H1 over 104.5 71.5% 73.5% 78.3% 0.94× 1.36
H1 under 118.5 65.9% 68.1% 62.9% 1.08× 1.47
H1 under 117.5 66.7% 67.4% 59.6% 1.13× 1.48
H1 over 108.5 63.8% 63.3% 67.7% 0.94× 1.58
H1 under 116.5 60.1% 63.3% 56.6% 1.12× 1.58
H1 over 107.5 63.2% 62.7% 70.4% 0.89× 1.59
H1 under 115.5 60.9% 62.7% 53.6% 1.17× 1.59
H1 over 109.5 57.3% 58.2% 65.0% 0.90× 1.72
H1 over 110.5 57.9% 58.1% 61.9% 0.94× 1.72
H1 under 113.5 54.9% 52.6% 47.6% 1.11× 1.90
H1 under 112.5 51.8% 52.6% 44.2% 1.19× 1.90
H1 over 111.5 51.2% 52.6% 59.0% 0.89× 1.90
H1 under 114.5 54.2% 52.5% 50.4% 1.04× 1.90
H1 over 114.5 45.8% 47.5% 49.6% 0.96× 2.11
H1 under 111.5 48.8% 47.4% 41.0% 1.15× 2.11
H1 over 112.5 48.2% 47.4% 55.8% 0.85× 2.11
H1 over 113.5 45.1% 47.4% 52.4% 0.90× 2.11
H1 under 110.5 42.1% 41.9% 38.1% 1.10× 2.39
H1 under 109.5 42.7% 41.8% 35.0% 1.19× 2.39
H1 over 115.5 39.1% 37.3% 46.4% 0.80× 2.68
H1 under 107.5 36.8% 37.3% 29.6% 1.26× 2.68
H1 over 116.5 39.9% 36.7% 43.4% 0.85× 2.72
H1 under 108.5 36.2% 36.7% 32.3% 1.14× 2.72
H1 over 117.5 33.3% 32.6% 40.4% 0.81× 3.07
H1 over 118.5 34.1% 31.9% 37.1% 0.86× 3.13
H1 under 104.5 28.5% 26.5% 21.7% 1.22× 3.77
H1 over 120.5 25.4% 26.5% 31.6% 0.84× 3.77
H1 under 105.5 28.1% 26.1% 24.2% 1.07× 3.84
H1 over 121.5 26.2% 26.0% 28.8% 0.90× 3.84
H1 under 100.5 19.0% 17.5% 13.2% 1.33× 5.72
H1 over 124.5 16.6% 17.5% 21.7% 0.81× 5.73
H1 under 101.5 18.8% 16.8% 15.1% 1.11× 5.96
H1 over 125.5 17.3% 16.8% 19.3% 0.87× 5.96
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win H2 64.4% 58.8% 44.7% 1.32× 1.70
Philadelphia 76ers to win H2 32.4% 36.3% 51.6% 0.70× 2.76
H2 tied 3.2% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.36
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 122.5 83.8% 81.8% 74.4% 1.10× 1.22
H2 over 98.5 81.0% 81.8% 86.2% 0.95× 1.22
H2 under 123.5 83.1% 81.5% 76.9% 1.06× 1.23
H2 over 99.5 81.2% 81.5% 84.4% 0.97× 1.23
H2 under 119.5 74.3% 72.5% 66.4% 1.09× 1.38
H2 over 103.5 71.8% 72.5% 76.2% 0.95× 1.38
H2 under 118.5 75.0% 72.2% 63.6% 1.14× 1.39
H2 over 102.5 71.5% 72.2% 78.5% 0.92× 1.39
H2 under 115.5 67.1% 66.4% 55.4% 1.20× 1.51
H2 under 116.5 66.3% 64.4% 58.1% 1.11× 1.55
H2 over 106.5 63.6% 62.6% 68.8% 0.91× 1.60
H2 under 114.5 60.5% 62.6% 52.5% 1.19× 1.60
H2 over 105.5 63.1% 61.6% 71.3% 0.86× 1.62
H2 under 113.5 61.3% 61.6% 50.1% 1.23× 1.62
H2 over 108.5 57.7% 58.0% 63.8% 0.91× 1.72
H2 over 107.5 57.1% 57.3% 66.2% 0.87× 1.74
H2 under 111.5 55.2% 57.3% 44.7% 1.28× 1.74
H2 under 110.5 52.1% 52.4% 41.9% 1.25× 1.91
H2 over 109.5 51.0% 52.4% 60.9% 0.86× 1.91
H2 under 112.5 54.5% 52.1% 47.4% 1.10× 1.92
H2 over 112.5 45.5% 47.9% 52.6% 0.91× 2.09
H2 under 109.5 49.0% 47.6% 39.1% 1.22× 2.10
H2 over 110.5 47.9% 47.6% 58.1% 0.82× 2.10
H2 over 111.5 44.8% 42.7% 55.3% 0.77× 2.34
H2 under 107.5 42.9% 42.7% 33.8% 1.26× 2.34
H2 under 108.5 42.3% 42.0% 36.2% 1.16× 2.38
H2 over 113.5 38.7% 38.4% 49.9% 0.77× 2.61
H2 under 105.5 36.9% 38.4% 28.7% 1.34× 2.61
H2 over 114.5 39.5% 37.4% 47.5% 0.79× 2.67
H2 under 106.5 36.4% 37.4% 31.2% 1.20× 2.67
H2 over 116.5 33.7% 35.6% 41.9% 0.85× 2.81
H2 over 115.5 32.9% 33.6% 44.6% 0.75× 2.97
H2 under 102.5 28.5% 27.8% 21.5% 1.29× 3.59
H2 over 118.5 25.0% 27.8% 36.4% 0.76× 3.59
H2 under 103.5 28.2% 27.5% 23.8% 1.16× 3.63
H2 over 119.5 25.7% 27.5% 33.6% 0.82× 3.64
H2 under 99.5 18.8% 18.5% 15.6% 1.19× 5.41
H2 over 123.5 16.9% 18.5% 23.1% 0.80× 5.41
H2 under 98.5 19.0% 18.2% 13.8% 1.31× 5.50
H2 over 122.5 16.2% 18.2% 25.6% 0.71× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks leading at half time 64.6% 62.5% 44.1% 1.42× 1.60
Philadelphia 76ers leading at half time 32.2% 32.7% 52.8% 0.62× 3.06
Level at half time 3.2% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks +16.5 96.1% 97.4% 83.5% 1.17× 1.03
New York Knicks +18.5 97.1% 97.4% 86.4% 1.13× 1.03
New York Knicks +20.5 97.9% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
New York Knicks +14.5 94.7% 91.1% 80.1% 1.14× 1.10
New York Knicks +12.5 93.1% 91.1% 76.0% 1.20× 1.10
New York Knicks +10.5 91.0% 91.1% 71.0% 1.28× 1.10
New York Knicks +9.5 89.8% 85.9% 68.7% 1.25× 1.16
New York Knicks +8.5 88.5% 85.9% 65.9% 1.30× 1.16
New York Knicks +7.5 87.1% 85.9% 63.0% 1.36× 1.16
New York Knicks +6.5 85.6% 85.9% 60.0% 1.43× 1.16
New York Knicks +5.5 84.0% 81.1% 57.1% 1.42× 1.23
New York Knicks +4.5 82.2% 81.1% 54.1% 1.50× 1.23
New York Knicks +3.5 80.4% 81.1% 51.6% 1.57× 1.23
Philadelphia 76ers +20.5 77.9% 76.5% 93.1% 0.82× 1.31
New York Knicks +2.5 78.4% 76.5% 49.1% 1.56× 1.31
New York Knicks +1.5 76.3% 76.5% 46.3% 1.65× 1.31
Philadelphia 76ers +18.5 73.5% 71.6% 91.5% 0.78× 1.40
New York Knicks −1.5 71.7% 71.6% 42.1% 1.70× 1.40
Philadelphia 76ers +16.5 68.7% 66.7% 89.7% 0.74× 1.50
New York Knicks −2.5 69.2% 66.7% 39.5% 1.69× 1.50
New York Knicks −3.5 66.6% 66.7% 36.9% 1.81× 1.50
New York Knicks −4.5 64.0% 61.9% 34.3% 1.81× 1.62
Philadelphia 76ers +14.5 63.6% 61.9% 87.0% 0.71× 1.62
New York Knicks −5.5 61.3% 61.9% 32.0% 1.93× 1.62
Philadelphia 76ers +12.5 58.3% 57.1% 83.9% 0.68× 1.75
New York Knicks −6.5 58.5% 57.1% 29.4% 1.94× 1.75
New York Knicks −7.5 55.7% 57.1% 27.0% 2.11× 1.75
New York Knicks −8.5 52.9% 52.4% 24.3% 2.15× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 52.7% 52.4% 80.3% 0.65× 1.91
New York Knicks −9.5 50.1% 52.4% 21.9% 2.40× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 49.9% 47.6% 78.1% 0.61× 2.10
Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 47.1% 47.6% 75.7% 0.63× 2.10
New York Knicks −10.5 47.3% 47.6% 19.7% 2.41× 2.10
Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 44.3% 42.9% 73.0% 0.59× 2.33
New York Knicks −12.5 41.7% 42.9% 16.1% 2.66× 2.33
Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 41.5% 42.9% 70.6% 0.61× 2.33
Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 38.7% 38.1% 68.0% 0.56× 2.63
New York Knicks −14.5 36.4% 38.1% 13.0% 2.93× 2.63
Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 36.0% 38.1% 65.7% 0.58× 2.63
Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 33.4% 33.3% 63.1% 0.53× 3.01
New York Knicks −16.5 31.3% 33.3% 10.3% 3.22× 3.01
Philadelphia 76ers +2.5 30.8% 33.3% 60.5% 0.55× 3.01
Philadelphia 76ers +1.5 28.3% 28.4% 57.9% 0.49× 3.53
New York Knicks −18.5 26.5% 28.4% 8.5% 3.33× 3.53
Philadelphia 76ers −1.5 23.7% 23.5% 53.7% 0.44× 4.25
New York Knicks −20.5 22.1% 23.5% 6.9% 3.42× 4.25
Philadelphia 76ers −2.5 21.6% 23.5% 50.9% 0.46× 4.25
Philadelphia 76ers −3.5 19.6% 18.9% 48.4% 0.39× 5.29
Philadelphia 76ers −4.5 17.8% 18.9% 46.0% 0.41× 5.29
Philadelphia 76ers −5.5 16.0% 18.9% 42.9% 0.44× 5.30
Philadelphia 76ers −6.5 14.4% 14.1% 40.0% 0.35× 7.09
Philadelphia 76ers −7.5 12.9% 14.1% 37.0% 0.38× 7.09
Philadelphia 76ers −9.5 10.2% 14.1% 31.3% 0.45× 7.09
Philadelphia 76ers −8.5 11.5% 14.1% 34.1% 0.41× 7.09
Philadelphia 76ers −10.5 9.0% 8.9% 29.0% 0.31× 11.25
Philadelphia 76ers −12.5 6.9% 8.9% 24.0% 0.37× 11.25
Philadelphia 76ers −14.5 5.3% 8.9% 19.9% 0.45× 11.25
Philadelphia 76ers −16.5 3.9% 2.6% 16.5% 0.16× 38.72
Philadelphia 76ers −18.5 2.9% 2.6% 13.6% 0.19× 38.73
Philadelphia 76ers −20.5 2.1% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.73
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 56.4% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 43.6% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.2% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 27.8% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.5% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 17.4% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks at HT / New York Knicks at FT 57.0% 56.8% 30.9% 1.84× 1.76
Philadelphia 76ers at HT / Philadelphia 76ers at FT 17.3% 15.5% 40.8% 0.38× 6.47
Philadelphia 76ers at HT / New York Knicks at FT 14.9% 12.2% 12.0% 1.02× 8.17
New York Knicks at HT / Philadelphia 76ers at FT 7.6% 8.3% 13.3% 0.62× 12.09
Level at HT / New York Knicks at FT 2.2% 2.1% 1.4% 1.50× 47.75
Level at HT / Philadelphia 76ers at FT 1.0% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win 74.1% 68.8% 44.3% 1.55× 1.45
Philadelphia 76ers to win 25.9% 31.2% 55.7% 0.56× 3.20
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers even 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
New York Knicks even 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 51.2% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
Philadelphia 76ers odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
New York Knicks odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.8% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 94.2% 94.0% 94.8% 0.99× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 5.8% 6.0% 5.2% 1.16× 16.66
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win Q1 58.9% 57.3% 44.1% 1.30× 1.75
Philadelphia 76ers to win Q1 36.5% 38.2% 51.3% 0.74× 2.62
Q1 tied 4.6% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.95
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 64.5 83.9% 82.8% 80.1% 1.03× 1.21
Q1 over 48.5 81.4% 82.8% 85.6% 0.97× 1.21
Q1 under 61.5 73.8% 72.7% 68.5% 1.06× 1.38
Q1 over 51.5 70.6% 72.7% 76.0% 0.96× 1.38
Q1 under 59.5 65.6% 67.6% 60.0% 1.13× 1.48
Q1 over 53.5 62.0% 61.7% 68.2% 0.90× 1.62
Q1 under 57.5 56.6% 58.6% 50.4% 1.16× 1.71
Q1 over 55.5 52.8% 52.7% 59.2% 0.89× 1.90
Q1 under 56.5 51.9% 52.7% 45.4% 1.16× 1.90
Q1 over 56.5 48.1% 47.3% 54.6% 0.87× 2.11
Q1 under 55.5 47.2% 47.3% 40.8% 1.16× 2.11
Q1 over 57.5 43.4% 41.4% 49.6% 0.83× 2.42
Q1 under 53.5 38.0% 38.3% 31.8% 1.21× 2.61
Q1 over 59.5 34.4% 32.4% 40.0% 0.81× 3.08
Q1 under 51.5 29.4% 27.3% 24.0% 1.14× 3.66
Q1 over 61.5 26.2% 27.3% 31.5% 0.87× 3.66
Q1 under 48.5 18.6% 17.2% 14.4% 1.19× 5.83
Q1 over 64.5 16.1% 17.2% 19.9% 0.86× 5.83
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win Q2 58.8% 59.4% 46.2% 1.28× 1.68
Philadelphia 76ers to win Q2 36.7% 35.8% 49.3% 0.72× 2.80
Q2 tied 4.6% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.89
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 64.5 84.5% 83.0% 80.9% 1.03× 1.21
Q2 over 48.5 80.4% 83.0% 84.7% 0.98× 1.21
Q2 under 61.5 74.7% 72.0% 70.4% 1.02× 1.39
Q2 over 51.5 69.3% 67.4% 74.2% 0.91× 1.48
Q2 under 59.5 66.7% 67.4% 61.9% 1.09× 1.49
Q2 over 53.5 60.6% 60.7% 65.8% 0.92× 1.65
Q2 under 57.5 57.9% 58.2% 52.7% 1.10× 1.72
Q2 under 56.5 53.2% 52.7% 48.3% 1.09× 1.90
Q2 over 55.5 51.4% 52.7% 56.3% 0.94× 1.90
Q2 under 55.5 48.6% 47.3% 43.7% 1.08× 2.11
Q2 over 56.5 46.8% 47.3% 51.7% 0.92× 2.11
Q2 over 57.5 42.1% 41.8% 47.3% 0.88× 2.39
Q2 under 53.5 39.4% 39.3% 34.2% 1.15× 2.55
Q2 over 59.5 33.3% 32.6% 38.1% 0.86× 3.06
Q2 under 51.5 30.7% 32.6% 25.8% 1.27× 3.06
Q2 over 61.5 25.3% 28.0% 29.6% 0.95× 3.57
Q2 under 48.5 19.6% 17.0% 15.3% 1.11× 5.88
Q2 over 64.5 15.5% 17.0% 19.1% 0.89× 5.89
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win Q3 58.8% 56.8% 44.3% 1.28× 1.76
Philadelphia 76ers to win Q3 36.7% 38.8% 50.9% 0.76× 2.58
Q3 tied 4.5% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.43
Q3 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 64.5 83.7% 82.3% 79.2% 1.04× 1.22
Q3 over 48.5 82.2% 82.3% 85.6% 0.96× 1.22
Q3 under 65.5 84.6% 82.2% 82.2% 1.00× 1.22
Q3 over 49.5 80.8% 82.2% 82.7% 0.99× 1.22
Q3 under 62.5 74.7% 72.5% 71.9% 1.01× 1.38
Q3 under 61.5 73.4% 71.8% 67.7% 1.06× 1.39
Q3 over 51.5 71.4% 71.8% 76.1% 0.94× 1.39
Q3 under 59.5 65.0% 67.8% 59.0% 1.15× 1.48
Q3 over 52.5 69.7% 66.9% 72.2% 0.93× 1.50
Q3 under 60.5 66.6% 66.8% 63.5% 1.05× 1.50
Q3 over 54.5 61.0% 62.6% 63.9% 0.98× 1.60
Q3 over 53.5 62.8% 61.9% 68.3% 0.91× 1.61
Q3 under 57.5 55.9% 58.4% 49.8% 1.17× 1.71
Q3 under 58.5 57.7% 57.9% 54.8% 1.06× 1.73
Q3 over 55.5 53.5% 52.3% 59.9% 0.87× 1.91
Q3 under 56.5 51.2% 52.3% 45.0% 1.16× 1.91
Q3 over 56.5 48.8% 47.7% 55.0% 0.87× 2.10
Q3 under 55.5 46.5% 47.7% 40.1% 1.19× 2.10
Q3 over 58.5 42.3% 42.1% 45.2% 0.93× 2.37
Q3 over 57.5 44.1% 41.6% 50.2% 0.83× 2.40
Q3 under 53.5 37.2% 38.1% 31.7% 1.20× 2.63
Q3 under 54.5 39.0% 37.4% 36.1% 1.04× 2.67
Q3 over 60.5 33.4% 33.2% 36.5% 0.91× 3.02
Q3 under 52.5 30.3% 33.1% 27.8% 1.19× 3.02
Q3 over 59.5 35.0% 32.2% 41.0% 0.79× 3.10
Q3 under 51.5 28.6% 28.2% 23.9% 1.18× 3.55
Q3 over 61.5 26.6% 28.2% 32.3% 0.87× 3.55
Q3 over 62.5 25.3% 27.5% 28.1% 0.98× 3.64
Q3 under 49.5 19.2% 17.8% 17.3% 1.03× 5.62
Q3 over 65.5 15.4% 17.8% 17.8% 1.00× 5.63
Q3 under 48.5 17.8% 17.7% 14.4% 1.23× 5.66
Q3 over 64.5 16.3% 17.7% 20.8% 0.85× 5.66
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win Q4 58.6% 52.1% 46.4% 1.12× 1.92
Philadelphia 76ers to win Q4 36.7% 42.4% 48.3% 0.88× 2.36
Q4 tied 4.7% 5.2% 5.3% 0.98× 19.28
Q4 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 over 45.5 82.4% 82.0% 84.6% 0.97× 1.22
Q4 under 61.5 82.0% 82.0% 77.5% 1.06× 1.22
Q4 under 62.5 83.1% 81.9% 80.4% 1.02× 1.22
Q4 over 46.5 81.0% 81.9% 81.7% 1.00× 1.22
Q4 under 59.5 73.0% 72.3% 70.2% 1.03× 1.38
Q4 over 49.5 70.3% 72.3% 72.3% 1.00× 1.38
Q4 over 48.5 72.0% 71.5% 75.5% 0.95× 1.40
Q4 under 58.5 71.5% 71.5% 66.2% 1.08× 1.40
Q4 under 57.5 64.9% 61.7% 61.9% 1.00× 1.62
Q4 over 51.5 62.0% 61.6% 64.7% 0.95× 1.62
Q4 over 50.5 63.8% 61.4% 68.5% 0.90× 1.63
Q4 under 56.5 63.2% 61.4% 57.2% 1.07× 1.63
Q4 under 55.5 56.1% 57.4% 52.9% 1.09× 1.74
Q4 over 52.5 54.9% 52.5% 60.4% 0.87× 1.91
Q4 under 54.5 54.3% 52.5% 48.6% 1.08× 1.91
Q4 over 53.5 50.3% 52.5% 55.7% 0.94× 1.91
Q4 under 53.5 49.7% 47.5% 44.3% 1.07× 2.11
Q4 over 54.5 45.7% 47.5% 51.4% 0.92× 2.11
Q4 under 52.5 45.1% 47.5% 39.6% 1.20× 2.11
Q4 over 55.5 43.9% 42.6% 47.1% 0.90× 2.35
Q4 over 56.5 36.8% 38.6% 42.8% 0.90× 2.59
Q4 under 50.5 36.2% 38.6% 31.5% 1.23× 2.59
Q4 under 51.5 38.1% 38.4% 35.3% 1.09× 2.61
Q4 over 57.5 35.1% 38.3% 38.1% 1.01× 2.61
Q4 over 58.5 28.5% 28.5% 33.8% 0.84× 3.51
Q4 under 48.5 28.0% 28.5% 24.5% 1.16× 3.51
Q4 under 49.5 29.7% 27.7% 27.7% 1.00× 3.61
Q4 over 59.5 27.0% 27.7% 29.8% 0.93× 3.61
Q4 under 46.5 19.0% 18.1% 18.3% 0.99× 5.53
Q4 over 62.5 16.9% 18.1% 19.6% 0.92× 5.53
Q4 over 61.5 18.0% 18.0% 22.5% 0.80× 5.56
Q4 under 45.5 17.6% 18.0% 15.4% 1.17× 5.56
Team total 58
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers under 116.5 80.9% 80.7% 54.7% 1.47× 1.24
New York Knicks over 105.5 80.5% 80.7% 71.9% 1.12× 1.24
New York Knicks under 125.5 80.3% 80.7% 83.4% 0.97× 1.24
Philadelphia 76ers under 119.5 79.9% 78.3% 63.5% 1.23× 1.28
Philadelphia 76ers over 96.5 79.4% 75.1% 92.9% 0.81× 1.33
Philadelphia 76ers over 102.5 71.4% 71.8% 84.2% 0.85× 1.39
Philadelphia 76ers under 113.5 73.3% 70.7% 45.7% 1.55× 1.41
New York Knicks over 108.5 72.6% 70.7% 64.0% 1.11× 1.41
New York Knicks under 122.5 72.4% 70.7% 77.4% 0.91× 1.41
Philadelphia 76ers over 99.5 71.4% 70.7% 89.3% 0.79× 1.41
Philadelphia 76ers under 114.5 66.5% 66.6% 48.6% 1.37× 1.50
Philadelphia 76ers over 104.5 65.6% 66.6% 79.8% 0.83× 1.50
Philadelphia 76ers under 111.5 67.4% 66.4% 38.9% 1.71× 1.51
New York Knicks over 110.5 66.7% 66.4% 57.9% 1.15× 1.51
New York Knicks under 120.5 66.4% 66.4% 72.7% 0.91× 1.51
Philadelphia 76ers over 101.5 65.4% 66.4% 86.0% 0.77× 1.51
Philadelphia 76ers under 109.5 61.1% 61.2% 33.0% 1.86× 1.63
New York Knicks over 112.5 60.3% 61.2% 51.5% 1.19× 1.63
Philadelphia 76ers under 112.5 60.3% 61.2% 42.3% 1.45× 1.64
New York Knicks under 118.5 60.0% 57.1% 67.4% 0.85× 1.75
Philadelphia 76ers over 103.5 58.9% 57.1% 82.1% 0.70× 1.75
New York Knicks over 114.5 53.6% 52.3% 44.5% 1.18× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers under 107.5 54.5% 52.3% 27.3% 1.91× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers under 106.5 51.1% 52.3% 24.9% 2.10× 1.91
New York Knicks under 116.5 53.3% 52.3% 61.5% 0.85× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers over 105.5 52.2% 52.3% 77.4% 0.68× 1.91
New York Knicks over 115.5 50.2% 52.3% 41.4% 1.26× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers under 110.5 53.8% 52.2% 35.9% 1.46× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers over 108.5 52.8% 52.2% 69.9% 0.75× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers under 108.5 47.2% 47.8% 30.1% 1.58× 2.09
Philadelphia 76ers over 110.5 46.2% 47.8% 64.1% 0.75× 2.09
New York Knicks under 115.5 49.8% 47.7% 58.6% 0.82× 2.09
Philadelphia 76ers over 106.5 48.9% 47.7% 75.1% 0.64× 2.09
New York Knicks over 116.5 46.8% 47.7% 38.5% 1.24× 2.09
Philadelphia 76ers under 105.5 47.8% 47.7% 22.6% 2.11× 2.09
New York Knicks under 114.5 46.4% 47.7% 55.5% 0.86× 2.09
Philadelphia 76ers over 107.5 45.5% 47.7% 72.7% 0.66× 2.09
Philadelphia 76ers under 103.5 41.1% 42.9% 17.9% 2.40× 2.33
New York Knicks over 118.5 40.0% 42.9% 32.6% 1.32× 2.33
Philadelphia 76ers over 112.5 39.7% 38.8% 57.7% 0.67× 2.58
New York Knicks under 112.5 39.7% 38.8% 48.5% 0.80× 2.58
Philadelphia 76ers over 109.5 38.9% 38.8% 67.0% 0.58× 2.58
Philadelphia 76ers under 101.5 34.6% 33.6% 14.0% 2.39× 2.98
New York Knicks under 110.5 33.3% 33.6% 42.1% 0.80× 2.98
New York Knicks over 120.5 33.6% 33.6% 27.3% 1.23× 2.98
Philadelphia 76ers over 111.5 32.6% 33.6% 61.1% 0.55× 2.98
Philadelphia 76ers under 104.5 34.4% 33.4% 20.2% 1.65× 2.99
Philadelphia 76ers over 114.5 33.5% 33.4% 51.4% 0.65× 2.99
Philadelphia 76ers under 99.5 28.6% 29.3% 10.7% 2.72× 3.42
New York Knicks under 108.5 27.4% 29.3% 36.0% 0.81× 3.42
New York Knicks over 122.5 27.6% 29.3% 22.6% 1.29× 3.42
Philadelphia 76ers over 113.5 26.7% 29.3% 54.3% 0.54× 3.42
Philadelphia 76ers under 102.5 28.6% 28.2% 15.8% 1.78× 3.55
Philadelphia 76ers under 96.5 20.6% 24.9% 7.1% 3.50× 4.02
Philadelphia 76ers over 119.5 20.1% 21.7% 36.5% 0.59× 4.61
Philadelphia 76ers over 116.5 19.1% 19.3% 45.3% 0.43× 5.18
New York Knicks under 105.5 19.5% 19.3% 28.1% 0.69× 5.18
New York Knicks over 125.5 19.7% 19.3% 16.6% 1.16× 5.18
Total points 52
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 244.5 points 86.1% 85.5% 79.5% 1.07× 1.17
Over 204.5 points 85.2% 85.5% 88.9% 0.96× 1.17
Over 201.5 points 86.4% 85.0% 91.5% 0.93× 1.18
Under 241.5 points 85.9% 85.0% 75.5% 1.13× 1.18
Under 239.5 points 79.3% 78.1% 72.5% 1.08× 1.28
Over 209.5 points 78.2% 78.1% 82.9% 0.94× 1.28
Over 206.5 points 79.6% 75.6% 86.7% 0.87× 1.32
Under 236.5 points 78.9% 75.6% 67.3% 1.12× 1.32
Under 234.5 points 70.9% 71.0% 63.3% 1.12× 1.41
Over 211.5 points 71.0% 70.8% 79.7% 0.89× 1.41
Under 231.5 points 70.3% 70.8% 57.4% 1.23× 1.41
Over 214.5 points 65.3% 65.9% 75.1% 0.88× 1.52
Over 217.5 points 63.8% 61.8% 69.6% 0.89× 1.62
Under 229.5 points 61.2% 61.7% 53.3% 1.16× 1.62
Under 228.5 points 64.4% 61.5% 51.3% 1.20× 1.63
Over 216.5 points 61.2% 61.5% 71.6% 0.86× 1.63
Under 226.5 points 60.2% 61.5% 47.3% 1.30× 1.63
Under 224.5 points 56.0% 56.5% 43.5% 1.30× 1.77
Over 218.5 points 57.0% 56.5% 67.8% 0.83× 1.77
Over 219.5 points 59.7% 56.0% 66.1% 0.85× 1.79
Under 227.5 points 57.1% 56.0% 49.4% 1.13× 1.79
Over 220.5 points 52.7% 52.3% 64.2% 0.82× 1.91
Under 222.5 points 51.7% 52.3% 39.6% 1.32× 1.91
Over 221.5 points 50.4% 52.3% 62.2% 0.84× 1.91
Under 225.5 points 52.9% 52.2% 45.3% 1.15× 1.92
Over 223.5 points 51.3% 52.2% 58.3% 0.90× 1.92
Under 223.5 points 48.7% 47.8% 41.7% 1.14× 2.09
Over 225.5 points 47.1% 47.8% 54.7% 0.87× 2.09
Under 221.5 points 49.6% 47.7% 37.8% 1.26× 2.10
Under 220.5 points 47.3% 47.7% 35.8% 1.33× 2.10
Over 222.5 points 48.3% 47.7% 60.4% 0.79× 2.10
Over 227.5 points 42.9% 44.0% 50.6% 0.87× 2.27
Under 219.5 points 40.3% 44.0% 33.9% 1.30× 2.27
Over 224.5 points 44.0% 43.5% 56.5% 0.77× 2.30
Under 218.5 points 43.0% 43.5% 32.2% 1.35× 2.30
Over 226.5 points 39.8% 38.5% 52.7% 0.73× 2.60
Under 216.5 points 38.8% 38.5% 28.4% 1.36× 2.60
Over 228.5 points 35.6% 38.5% 48.7% 0.79× 2.60
Over 229.5 points 38.8% 38.3% 46.7% 0.82× 2.61
Under 217.5 points 36.2% 38.2% 30.4% 1.26× 2.61
Under 214.5 points 34.7% 34.1% 24.9% 1.37× 2.93
Over 231.5 points 29.7% 29.2% 42.6% 0.68× 3.43
Under 211.5 points 29.0% 29.2% 20.3% 1.43× 3.43
Over 234.5 points 29.1% 29.0% 36.7% 0.79× 3.45
Over 236.5 points 21.1% 24.4% 32.7% 0.75× 4.10
Under 206.5 points 20.4% 24.4% 13.3% 1.84× 4.10
Under 209.5 points 21.8% 21.9% 17.1% 1.28× 4.57
Over 239.5 points 20.7% 21.9% 27.5% 0.80× 4.57
Over 241.5 points 14.1% 15.0% 24.5% 0.61× 6.68
Under 201.5 points 13.6% 15.0% 8.5% 1.76× 6.68
Under 204.5 points 14.8% 14.5% 11.1% 1.31× 6.88
Over 244.5 points 13.9% 14.5% 20.5% 0.71× 6.88
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win both halves 39.6% 36.3% 17.8% 2.04× 2.75
Philadelphia 76ers to win both halves 8.7% 8.8% 25.2% 0.35× 11.31
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks by 6-10 14.0% 12.3% 12.3% 1.00× 8.11
New York Knicks by 11-15 13.5% 12.3% 8.0% 1.54× 8.11
New York Knicks by 26+ 13.2% 12.3% 3.9% 3.19× 8.11
New York Knicks by 1-5 12.8% 12.3% 12.3% 1.01× 8.11
New York Knicks by 16-20 11.6% 12.3% 4.9% 2.54× 8.11
Philadelphia 76ers by 1-5 9.9% 7.5% 12.8% 0.58× 13.40
New York Knicks by 21-25 8.9% 7.5% 3.0% 2.45× 13.40
Philadelphia 76ers by 6-10 7.0% 7.5% 13.9% 0.54× 13.40
Philadelphia 76ers by 11-15 4.4% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.29
Philadelphia 76ers by 16-20 2.5% 2.0% 7.3% 0.28× 49.31
Philadelphia 76ers by 21-25 1.2% 2.0% 4.7% 0.43× 49.32
Philadelphia 76ers by 26+ 0.9% 2.0% 6.2% 0.33× 49.32
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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