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Purdue Boilermakers v Michigan Wolverines — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 11 January 2025 · NCAAW · 2025

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Purdue Boilermakers win
3.1%
Draw
0.0%
Michigan Wolverines win
96.9%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
nba-normal-oos 60.49–80.04 60-80 0% 51% 0% Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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