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Toronto Tempo v Indiana Fever — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 18 September 2026 · WNBA · 2026

WNBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Toronto Tempo win
16.4%
Draw
0.0%
Indiana Fever win
83.6%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 91.34–102.72 91-103 0% 49% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Fever to score 100+ 62.1% 61.8% 9.8% 6.33× 1.62
Indiana Fever to score 110+ 27.1% 27.5% 2.1% 12.99× 3.64
Toronto Tempo to score 100+ 21.6% 22.0% 12.5% 1.75× 4.55
Both sides to score 100+ 17.2% 17.5% 3.7% 4.68× 5.70
Indiana Fever to score 120+ 6.3% 8.8% 0.5% 17.98× 11.38
Toronto Tempo to score 110+ 4.2% 0.4% 2.1% 0.17× 282.54
Toronto Tempo to score 120+ 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 0.43× 283.28
Toronto Tempo to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 2.17× 283.35
Indiana Fever to score 130+ 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 2.17× 283.21
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Fever to win H1 71.3% 72.9% 42.2% 1.73× 1.37
Toronto Tempo to win H1 25.3% 26.5% 54.2% 0.49× 3.77
H1 tied 3.5% 3.9% 3.7% 1.03× 25.86
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 109.5 84.9% 82.5% 98.7% 0.84× 1.21
H1 over 85.5 83.3% 82.5% 43.6% 1.89× 1.21
H1 under 105.5 75.7% 77.4% 95.8% 0.81× 1.29
H1 over 89.5 73.7% 73.5% 30.0% 2.45× 1.36
H1 under 102.5 67.3% 67.4% 91.7% 0.74× 1.48
H1 over 92.5 64.9% 62.7% 22.0% 2.85× 1.59
H1 under 100.5 61.1% 62.7% 89.4% 0.70× 1.59
H1 over 94.5 58.6% 58.2% 18.4% 3.16× 1.72
H1 under 98.5 54.6% 52.6% 86.8% 0.61× 1.90
H1 over 96.5 52.0% 52.6% 15.8% 3.33× 1.90
H1 under 97.5 51.3% 52.6% 85.7% 0.61× 1.90
H1 over 97.5 48.7% 47.4% 14.3% 3.30× 2.11
H1 under 96.5 48.0% 47.4% 84.2% 0.56× 2.11
H1 over 98.5 45.4% 47.4% 13.2% 3.59× 2.11
H1 under 94.5 41.4% 41.8% 81.6% 0.51× 2.39
H1 over 100.5 38.9% 37.3% 10.6% 3.52× 2.68
H1 under 92.5 35.1% 37.3% 78.0% 0.48× 2.68
H1 over 102.5 32.7% 32.6% 8.3% 3.92× 3.07
H1 under 89.5 26.3% 26.5% 70.0% 0.38× 3.77
H1 over 105.5 24.3% 22.6% 4.2% 5.33× 4.43
H1 under 85.5 16.7% 17.5% 56.4% 0.31× 5.73
H1 over 109.5 15.2% 17.5% 1.3% 13.40× 5.73
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Fever to win H2 71.2% 67.6% 45.3% 1.49× 1.48
Toronto Tempo to win H2 25.3% 31.3% 51.1% 0.61× 3.20
H2 tied 3.5% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.36
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 109.5 85.2% 85.2% 96.4% 0.88× 1.17
H2 over 85.5 83.0% 81.8% 47.7% 1.71× 1.22
H2 under 105.5 76.1% 75.8% 93.6% 0.81× 1.32
H2 over 89.5 73.3% 72.2% 33.7% 2.14× 1.39
H2 under 102.5 67.8% 66.4% 91.2% 0.73× 1.51
H2 over 92.5 64.5% 61.6% 26.2% 2.35× 1.62
H2 under 100.5 61.6% 61.6% 88.4% 0.70× 1.62
H2 over 94.5 58.1% 57.3% 21.0% 2.73× 1.74
H2 under 98.5 55.1% 57.3% 85.8% 0.67× 1.74
H2 over 96.5 51.5% 52.4% 17.3% 3.03× 1.91
H2 under 97.5 51.8% 52.4% 84.4% 0.62× 1.91
H2 under 96.5 48.5% 47.6% 82.7% 0.58× 2.10
H2 over 97.5 48.2% 47.6% 15.6% 3.05× 2.10
H2 over 98.5 44.9% 42.7% 14.2% 3.01× 2.34
H2 under 94.5 41.9% 42.7% 79.0% 0.54× 2.34
H2 over 100.5 38.4% 38.4% 11.6% 3.32× 2.61
H2 under 92.5 35.5% 38.4% 73.8% 0.52× 2.61
H2 over 102.5 32.2% 33.6% 8.8% 3.82× 2.97
H2 under 89.5 26.7% 27.8% 66.3% 0.42× 3.59
H2 over 105.5 23.9% 24.2% 6.4% 3.81× 4.13
H2 under 85.5 17.0% 18.2% 52.3% 0.35× 5.50
H2 over 109.5 14.8% 14.8% 3.6% 4.13× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Fever leading at half time 71.3% 73.4% 42.2% 1.74× 1.36
Toronto Tempo leading at half time 25.3% 26.5% 54.2% 0.49× 3.78
Level at half time 3.5% 3.8% 3.7% 1.01× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Fever +18.5 99.4% 97.4% 86.6% 1.12× 1.03
Indiana Fever +20.5 99.6% 97.4% 90.1% 1.08× 1.03
Indiana Fever +9.5 95.9% 97.4% 69.7% 1.40× 1.03
Indiana Fever +10.5 96.6% 97.4% 72.2% 1.35× 1.03
Indiana Fever +12.5 97.7% 97.4% 76.4% 1.28× 1.03
Indiana Fever +14.5 98.4% 97.4% 80.6% 1.21× 1.03
Indiana Fever +16.5 99.0% 97.4% 83.7% 1.16× 1.03
Indiana Fever +8.5 95.1% 97.4% 66.0% 1.48× 1.03
Indiana Fever +7.5 94.2% 91.1% 62.4% 1.46× 1.10
Indiana Fever +6.5 93.1% 91.1% 60.4% 1.51× 1.10
Indiana Fever +4.5 90.6% 91.1% 54.2% 1.68× 1.10
Indiana Fever +5.5 91.9% 91.1% 57.3% 1.59× 1.10
Indiana Fever +3.5 89.1% 85.9% 52.0% 1.65× 1.16
Indiana Fever +2.5 87.4% 85.9% 49.2% 1.75× 1.16
Indiana Fever +1.5 85.6% 85.9% 47.1% 1.82× 1.16
Indiana Fever −1.5 81.3% 81.1% 42.7% 1.90× 1.23
Indiana Fever −2.5 78.8% 76.5% 39.4% 1.94× 1.31
Toronto Tempo +20.5 77.2% 76.5% 94.3% 0.81× 1.31
Indiana Fever −3.5 76.1% 76.5% 37.1% 2.06× 1.31
Indiana Fever −4.5 73.3% 71.6% 34.4% 2.08× 1.40
Toronto Tempo +18.5 71.8% 71.6% 93.3% 0.77× 1.40
Indiana Fever −5.5 70.4% 71.6% 30.9% 2.32× 1.40
Indiana Fever −6.5 67.3% 66.7% 27.9% 2.40× 1.50
Toronto Tempo +16.5 65.8% 66.7% 91.7% 0.73× 1.50
Indiana Fever −7.5 64.1% 61.9% 24.4% 2.53× 1.62
Indiana Fever −8.5 60.8% 61.9% 21.2% 2.92× 1.62
Toronto Tempo +14.5 59.4% 57.1% 88.4% 0.65× 1.75
Indiana Fever −9.5 57.5% 57.1% 19.5% 2.92× 1.75
Indiana Fever −10.5 54.1% 52.4% 16.5% 3.19× 1.91
Toronto Tempo +12.5 52.7% 52.4% 86.2% 0.61× 1.91
Indiana Fever −12.5 47.3% 47.6% 13.8% 3.44× 2.10
Toronto Tempo +10.5 45.9% 47.6% 83.6% 0.57× 2.10
Toronto Tempo +9.5 42.5% 42.9% 80.5% 0.53× 2.33
Indiana Fever −14.5 40.6% 42.9% 11.6% 3.71× 2.33
Toronto Tempo +8.5 39.2% 38.1% 78.8% 0.48× 2.63
Toronto Tempo +7.5 35.9% 38.1% 75.6% 0.50× 2.63
Indiana Fever −16.5 34.2% 33.3% 8.3% 4.00× 3.01
Toronto Tempo +6.5 32.7% 33.3% 72.2% 0.46× 3.01
Toronto Tempo +5.5 29.6% 28.4% 69.1% 0.41× 3.53
Indiana Fever −18.5 28.2% 28.4% 6.7% 4.25× 3.53
Toronto Tempo +4.5 26.7% 28.4% 65.6% 0.43× 3.53
Toronto Tempo +3.5 23.9% 23.5% 62.9% 0.37× 4.25
Indiana Fever −20.5 22.8% 23.5% 5.7% 4.13× 4.25
Toronto Tempo +2.5 21.2% 23.5% 60.6% 0.39× 4.25
Toronto Tempo +1.5 18.7% 18.9% 57.3% 0.33× 5.29
Toronto Tempo −1.5 14.4% 14.1% 52.9% 0.27× 7.09
Toronto Tempo −2.5 12.6% 14.1% 50.8% 0.28× 7.09
Toronto Tempo −3.5 10.9% 14.1% 48.0% 0.29× 7.09
Toronto Tempo −4.5 9.4% 8.9% 45.8% 0.19× 11.25
Toronto Tempo −5.5 8.1% 8.9% 42.7% 0.21× 11.25
Toronto Tempo −6.5 6.9% 8.9% 39.6% 0.22× 11.25
Toronto Tempo −7.5 5.8% 8.9% 37.6% 0.24× 11.25
Toronto Tempo −8.5 4.9% 2.6% 34.0% 0.08× 38.72
Toronto Tempo −9.5 4.1% 2.6% 30.3% 0.09× 38.72
Toronto Tempo −10.5 3.4% 2.6% 27.9% 0.09× 38.73
Toronto Tempo −12.5 2.3% 2.6% 23.6% 0.11× 38.73
Toronto Tempo −14.5 1.6% 2.6% 19.4% 0.13× 38.73
Toronto Tempo −16.5 1.0% 2.6% 16.3% 0.16× 38.74
Toronto Tempo −18.5 0.6% 2.6% 13.4% 0.19× 38.74
Toronto Tempo −20.5 0.4% 2.6% 9.9% 0.26× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.5% 52.4% 50.7% 1.03× 1.91
1st half highest scoring 50.5% 47.6% 49.3% 0.96× 2.10
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.6% 27.4% 27.5% 0.99× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 28.1% 27.4% 27.0% 1.01× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 21.9% 22.4% 23.8% 0.94× 4.46
Q2 highest scoring 21.4% 22.4% 22.0% 1.02× 4.47
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Fever at HT / Indiana Fever at FT 66.2% 68.2% 30.9% 2.20× 1.47
Toronto Tempo at HT / Indiana Fever at FT 14.8% 12.2% 12.5% 0.98× 8.17
Toronto Tempo at HT / Toronto Tempo at FT 10.5% 12.2% 41.9% 0.29× 8.18
Indiana Fever at HT / Toronto Tempo at FT 5.1% 8.3% 11.4% 0.73× 12.10
Level at HT / Indiana Fever at FT 2.7% 2.1% 1.8% 1.17× 47.75
Level at HT / Toronto Tempo at FT 0.8% 2.1% 2.1% 0.99× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Fever to win 83.6% 80.9% 45.0% 1.80× 1.24
Toronto Tempo to win 16.4% 19.1% 55.0% 0.35× 5.24
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Tempo even 50.0% 50.5% 50.5% 1.00× 1.98
Indiana Fever even 50.0% 50.5% 51.1% 0.99× 1.98
Total points odd 51.1% 50.5% 52.0% 0.97× 1.98
Toronto Tempo odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.5% 1.00× 2.02
Indiana Fever odd 50.0% 49.5% 48.9% 1.01× 2.02
Total points even 48.9% 49.5% 48.0% 1.03× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 96.9% 97.0% 96.7% 1.00× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 3.1% 3.0% 3.3% 0.92× 33.45
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Fever to win Q1 63.4% 64.9% 43.0% 1.51× 1.54
Toronto Tempo to win Q1 31.5% 30.4% 52.4% 0.58× 3.29
Q1 tied 5.1% 5.5% 4.7% 1.16× 18.33
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 57.5 85.5% 87.4% 95.6% 0.91× 1.14
Q1 over 41.5 83.5% 82.8% 53.7% 1.54× 1.21
Q1 under 54.5 75.1% 76.9% 91.5% 0.84× 1.30
Q1 over 44.5 72.4% 72.7% 38.9% 1.87× 1.38
Q1 under 52.5 66.4% 67.6% 88.8% 0.76× 1.48
Q1 over 46.5 63.3% 61.7% 30.3% 2.04× 1.62
Q1 under 50.5 56.7% 58.6% 84.9% 0.69× 1.71
Q1 over 48.5 53.4% 52.7% 22.2% 2.38× 1.90
Q1 under 49.5 51.6% 52.7% 82.1% 0.64× 1.90
Q1 over 49.5 48.4% 47.3% 17.9% 2.64× 2.11
Q1 under 48.5 46.6% 47.3% 77.9% 0.61× 2.11
Q1 over 50.5 43.3% 41.4% 15.1% 2.73× 2.42
Q1 under 46.5 36.7% 38.3% 69.7% 0.55× 2.61
Q1 over 52.5 33.6% 32.4% 11.2% 2.89× 3.08
Q1 under 44.5 27.6% 27.3% 61.1% 0.45× 3.66
Q1 over 54.5 24.9% 23.1% 8.5% 2.73× 4.33
Q1 under 41.5 16.5% 17.2% 46.3% 0.37× 5.83
Q1 over 57.5 14.5% 12.6% 4.4% 2.86× 7.94
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Fever to win Q2 62.6% 61.9% 45.0% 1.38× 1.62
Toronto Tempo to win Q2 32.4% 31.8% 51.8% 0.61× 3.14
Q2 tied 5.0% 4.4% 3.4% 1.28× 22.87
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 56.5 86.7% 87.3% 97.7% 0.89× 1.15
Q2 over 40.5 83.3% 83.0% 54.9% 1.51× 1.21
Q2 under 53.5 76.5% 76.8% 94.6% 0.81× 1.30
Q2 over 43.5 71.8% 72.0% 39.9% 1.80× 1.39
Q2 under 51.5 67.8% 67.4% 91.2% 0.74× 1.49
Q2 over 45.5 62.4% 60.7% 29.2% 2.08× 1.65
Q2 under 49.5 58.1% 58.2% 85.5% 0.68× 1.72
Q2 under 48.5 52.9% 52.7% 82.4% 0.64× 1.90
Q2 over 47.5 52.3% 52.7% 20.8% 2.53× 1.90
Q2 under 47.5 47.7% 47.3% 79.2% 0.60× 2.11
Q2 over 48.5 47.1% 47.3% 17.6% 2.69× 2.11
Q2 over 49.5 41.9% 41.8% 14.5% 2.89× 2.39
Q2 under 45.5 37.6% 39.3% 70.8% 0.55× 2.55
Q2 over 51.5 32.2% 32.6% 8.8% 3.71× 3.06
Q2 under 43.5 28.2% 28.0% 60.1% 0.47× 3.57
Q2 over 53.5 23.5% 23.2% 5.4% 4.32× 4.31
Q2 under 40.5 16.7% 17.0% 45.1% 0.38× 5.88
Q2 over 56.5 13.3% 12.7% 2.3% 5.56× 7.89
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Fever to win Q3 63.7% 60.9% 46.4% 1.31× 1.64
Toronto Tempo to win Q3 31.1% 33.7% 48.2% 0.70× 2.96
Q3 tied 5.2% 5.3% 5.5% 0.95× 18.98
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 57.5 85.5% 87.2% 95.6% 0.91× 1.15
Q3 over 41.5 83.9% 82.3% 54.9% 1.50× 1.22
Q3 under 54.5 75.0% 71.8% 92.8% 0.77× 1.39
Q3 over 44.5 72.8% 71.8% 40.7% 1.76× 1.39
Q3 under 52.5 66.2% 67.8% 90.1% 0.75× 1.48
Q3 over 46.5 63.7% 62.0% 30.9% 2.00× 1.61
Q3 under 50.5 56.4% 58.4% 86.2% 0.68× 1.71
Q3 over 48.5 53.8% 52.3% 22.0% 2.38× 1.91
Q3 under 49.5 51.3% 52.3% 83.2% 0.63× 1.91
Q3 over 49.5 48.7% 47.7% 16.8% 2.84× 2.10
Q3 under 48.5 46.2% 47.7% 78.0% 0.61× 2.10
Q3 over 50.5 43.6% 41.6% 13.8% 3.01× 2.40
Q3 under 46.5 36.3% 38.0% 69.1% 0.55× 2.63
Q3 over 52.5 33.8% 32.2% 9.9% 3.24× 3.10
Q3 under 44.5 27.2% 28.2% 59.3% 0.48× 3.55
Q3 over 54.5 25.0% 28.2% 7.2% 3.93× 3.55
Q3 under 41.5 16.1% 17.7% 45.1% 0.39× 5.66
Q3 over 57.5 14.5% 12.8% 4.4% 2.91× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Fever to win Q4 62.7% 57.8% 42.5% 1.36× 1.73
Toronto Tempo to win Q4 32.3% 37.4% 52.6% 0.71× 2.68
Q4 tied 5.0% 5.8% 5.0% 1.15× 17.26
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 over 39.5 84.2% 82.0% 57.3% 1.43× 1.22
Q4 under 55.5 82.8% 82.0% 94.1% 0.87× 1.22
Q4 over 42.5 73.8% 71.5% 44.8% 1.60× 1.40
Q4 under 52.5 72.0% 71.5% 90.4% 0.79× 1.40
Q4 over 44.5 65.3% 67.4% 36.5% 1.85× 1.48
Q4 under 50.5 63.2% 61.4% 84.9% 0.72× 1.63
Q4 over 46.5 55.9% 58.4% 29.2% 2.00× 1.71
Q4 under 48.5 53.8% 52.5% 79.8% 0.66× 1.91
Q4 over 47.5 51.1% 52.5% 24.3% 2.16× 1.91
Q4 under 47.5 48.9% 47.5% 75.7% 0.63× 2.11
Q4 over 48.5 46.2% 47.5% 20.2% 2.35× 2.11
Q4 under 46.5 44.1% 41.6% 70.8% 0.59× 2.40
Q4 over 50.5 36.8% 38.6% 15.1% 2.55× 2.59
Q4 under 44.5 34.7% 32.6% 63.5% 0.51× 3.07
Q4 over 52.5 28.0% 28.5% 9.6% 2.97× 3.51
Q4 under 42.5 26.2% 28.5% 55.2% 0.52× 3.51
Q4 over 55.5 17.2% 18.0% 5.9% 3.07× 5.56
Q4 under 39.5 15.8% 18.0% 42.7% 0.42× 5.56
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Tempo under 101.5 83.6% 80.7% 91.4% 0.88× 1.24
Indiana Fever under 113.5 83.6% 80.7% 99.5% 0.81× 1.24
Toronto Tempo over 81.5 82.2% 80.7% 63.2% 1.28× 1.24
Indiana Fever over 93.5 80.5% 80.7% 18.4% 4.38× 1.24
Toronto Tempo under 98.5 75.6% 75.1% 85.8% 0.88× 1.33
Indiana Fever under 110.5 75.8% 75.1% 97.9% 0.77× 1.33
Toronto Tempo over 84.5 73.8% 70.7% 52.0% 1.36× 1.41
Indiana Fever over 96.5 72.0% 70.7% 14.0% 5.05× 1.41
Indiana Fever under 108.5 69.7% 66.4% 97.2% 0.68× 1.51
Toronto Tempo under 96.5 69.2% 66.4% 81.3% 0.82× 1.51
Toronto Tempo over 86.5 67.3% 66.4% 44.6% 1.49× 1.51
Indiana Fever over 98.5 65.6% 66.4% 11.6% 5.74× 1.51
Toronto Tempo under 94.5 62.3% 61.2% 75.6% 0.81× 1.63
Indiana Fever under 106.5 63.1% 61.2% 96.1% 0.64× 1.63
Toronto Tempo over 88.5 60.1% 61.2% 39.6% 1.55× 1.63
Indiana Fever over 100.5 58.6% 57.1% 9.3% 6.15× 1.75
Indiana Fever under 104.5 55.9% 57.1% 94.3% 0.61× 1.75
Toronto Tempo under 92.5 54.9% 52.3% 71.5% 0.73× 1.91
Toronto Tempo over 90.5 52.7% 52.3% 33.6% 1.56× 1.91
Toronto Tempo under 91.5 51.1% 52.3% 68.6% 0.76× 1.91
Indiana Fever over 102.5 51.4% 52.3% 6.7% 7.83× 1.91
Indiana Fever under 103.5 52.3% 52.3% 93.5% 0.56× 1.91
Toronto Tempo under 90.5 47.3% 47.7% 66.5% 0.72× 2.09
Toronto Tempo over 91.5 48.9% 47.7% 31.4% 1.52× 2.09
Indiana Fever under 102.5 48.6% 47.7% 93.3% 0.51× 2.09
Indiana Fever over 103.5 47.7% 47.7% 6.5% 7.33× 2.09
Toronto Tempo over 92.5 45.1% 47.7% 28.5% 1.68× 2.09
Indiana Fever over 104.5 44.1% 42.9% 5.7% 7.53× 2.33
Indiana Fever under 100.5 41.4% 42.9% 90.7% 0.47× 2.33
Toronto Tempo under 88.5 39.9% 38.8% 60.4% 0.64× 2.58
Toronto Tempo over 94.5 37.7% 38.8% 24.4% 1.59× 2.58
Indiana Fever over 106.5 36.9% 38.8% 3.9% 9.93× 2.58
Indiana Fever under 98.5 34.4% 33.6% 88.4% 0.38× 2.98
Toronto Tempo under 86.5 32.7% 33.6% 55.4% 0.61× 2.98
Toronto Tempo over 96.5 30.8% 33.6% 18.7% 1.79× 2.98
Indiana Fever over 108.5 30.3% 33.6% 2.8% 12.14× 2.98
Indiana Fever under 96.5 28.0% 29.3% 86.0% 0.34× 3.42
Toronto Tempo under 84.5 26.2% 29.3% 48.0% 0.61× 3.42
Toronto Tempo over 98.5 24.4% 24.9% 14.2% 1.76× 4.02
Indiana Fever over 110.5 24.2% 24.9% 2.1% 11.75× 4.02
Indiana Fever under 93.5 19.5% 19.3% 81.6% 0.24× 5.18
Toronto Tempo under 81.5 17.8% 19.3% 36.8% 0.52× 5.18
Toronto Tempo over 101.5 16.4% 19.3% 8.6% 2.24× 5.18
Indiana Fever over 113.5 16.4% 19.3% 0.5% 39.51× 5.18
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 214.5 points 87.4% 85.0% 98.4% 0.86× 1.18
Over 174.5 points 86.4% 85.0% 36.8% 2.31× 1.18
Under 209.5 points 80.7% 80.6% 97.2% 0.83× 1.24
Over 179.5 points 79.3% 75.6% 26.9% 2.81× 1.32
Under 204.5 points 72.1% 70.8% 95.1% 0.74× 1.41
Over 184.5 points 70.5% 70.8% 19.2% 3.69× 1.41
Under 201.5 points 66.2% 65.9% 93.5% 0.70× 1.52
Over 187.5 points 64.4% 61.5% 15.6% 3.93× 1.63
Under 199.5 points 62.0% 61.5% 93.0% 0.66× 1.63
Over 189.5 points 60.1% 61.5% 13.5% 4.55× 1.63
Under 197.5 points 57.7% 56.5% 92.0% 0.61× 1.77
Over 191.5 points 55.7% 56.5% 12.9% 4.39× 1.77
Under 195.5 points 53.2% 52.3% 90.6% 0.58× 1.91
Over 193.5 points 51.3% 52.3% 10.9% 4.80× 1.91
Under 194.5 points 50.9% 52.3% 90.1% 0.58× 1.91
Under 193.5 points 48.7% 47.7% 89.1% 0.54× 2.10
Over 194.5 points 49.1% 47.7% 9.9% 4.80× 2.10
Over 195.5 points 46.8% 47.7% 9.4% 5.05× 2.10
Under 191.5 points 44.3% 43.5% 87.1% 0.50× 2.30
Over 197.5 points 42.3% 43.5% 8.0% 5.45× 2.30
Under 189.5 points 39.9% 38.5% 86.5% 0.45× 2.60
Over 199.5 points 38.0% 38.5% 7.0% 5.50× 2.60
Under 187.5 points 35.6% 38.5% 84.4% 0.46× 2.60
Over 201.5 points 33.8% 34.1% 6.5% 5.24× 2.93
Under 184.5 points 29.5% 29.2% 80.8% 0.36× 3.43
Over 204.5 points 27.9% 29.2% 4.9% 5.97× 3.43
Under 179.5 points 20.7% 24.4% 73.1% 0.33× 4.10
Over 209.5 points 19.3% 19.4% 2.8% 7.02× 5.15
Under 174.5 points 13.6% 15.0% 63.2% 0.24× 6.68
Over 214.5 points 12.6% 15.0% 1.6% 9.18× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Fever to win both halves 48.7% 45.9% 17.9% 2.56× 2.18
Toronto Tempo to win both halves 4.6% 3.0% 25.7% 0.12× 33.55
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Fever by 6-10 16.3% 16.8% 14.7% 1.14× 5.97
Indiana Fever by 11-15 16.8% 16.8% 6.5% 2.57× 5.97
Indiana Fever by 16-20 14.5% 12.3% 4.6% 2.71× 8.11
Indiana Fever by 1-5 13.3% 12.3% 14.2% 0.87× 8.11
Indiana Fever by 26+ 12.2% 12.3% 3.6% 3.44× 8.11
Indiana Fever by 21-25 10.6% 12.3% 2.3% 5.41× 8.11
Toronto Tempo by 1-5 8.3% 7.5% 12.5% 0.60× 13.40
Toronto Tempo by 6-10 4.6% 2.0% 15.0% 0.14× 49.29
Toronto Tempo by 11-15 2.2% 2.0% 10.3% 0.20× 49.31
Toronto Tempo by 16-20 0.9% 2.0% 8.0% 0.25× 49.32
Toronto Tempo by 21-25 0.3% 2.0% 4.9% 0.41× 49.33
Toronto Tempo by 26+ 0.1% 2.0% 5.2% 0.39× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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