Alaves v Elche — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 October 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 6
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 3
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
1.31 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+0.15 – +0.34
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Alaves win
28.6%
Draw
30.3%
Elche win
41.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Alaves have scored 14 from 15.5 expected and conceded 11 from 9.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWLDWWLWDW last 10
scored 14
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.6 xG
Elche are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWLDLWDDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.4 xG
conceded 19
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.88–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.07–0.82 | 1-0 16% | 29% | 37% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Alaves 2.85 xGElche 0.66 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Alaves attacking right
Elche attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Alaves |
Abderrahmane Rebbach | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Boyé |
| 9' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Calebe |
| 10' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Ibáñez |
| 12' |
 Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 14' |
Alaves |
Jonny | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Calebe |
| 15' |
Alaves |
Nahuel Tenaglia | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Calebe |
| 17' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jon Pacheco Dozagarat |
| 20' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Alaves |
Jonny | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Blanco |
| 29' |
Elche |
Aleix Febas | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Álvaro Núñez |
| 30' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Alaves |
Calebe | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonny |
| 32' |
Alaves |
Youssef Lekhedim | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Boyé |
| 46' |
Alaves |
Abderrahmane Rebbach | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Alaves |
Antonio Blanco | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Alaves |
Antonio Blanco | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Elche |
Martim Neto | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Aguado |
| 54' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Alaves |
Youssef Lekhedim | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Vicente |
| 62' |
Alaves |
Nahuel Tenaglia | 0.23 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Vicente |
| 65' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Alaves |
Carles Aleñá | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Vicente |
| 74' |
Alaves |
Nahuel Tenaglia | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Denis Suárez |
| 75' |
Alaves |
Carlos Vicente | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 77' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 79' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Carles Aleñá |
| 92' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | German Valera |
| 92' |
Elche |
Pedro Bigas | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro Núñez |
| 94' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Carles Aleñá |
| 96' |
Alaves |
Youssef Lekhedim | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Denis Suárez |
Players
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Boyé AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.59 | 0.11 | 0.59 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssef Lekhedim DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Jonny DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.32 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Pacheco Dozagarat DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.52 |
| Antonio Martínez FW | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Pablo Ibáñez DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach AML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Antonio Blanco DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Carlos Vicente Sub | 54 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.74 | 0.37 | 0.11 |
| Calebe AMR | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Carles Aleñá Sub | 16 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.57 | 0.80 |
| Denis Suárez Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| Ander Guevara Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Victor Parada Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleix Febas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Pedro Bigas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Victor Chust DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iñaki Peña GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| German Valera DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Álvaro Núñez DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Affengruber DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Aguado MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Rafa Mir FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Grady Diangana MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Martim Neto Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| André Silva Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| John Donald Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Leo Petrot Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Adam El Mokhtari Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |