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Almere City v Heracles Almelo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 18 September 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Almere City win
29.5%
model 34.6%
Draw
20.0%
model 18.8%
Heracles Almelo win
50.5%
model 46.6%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-2 7.1%
  2. 1-2 6.9%
  3. 2-1 6.0%
  4. 2-3 5.6%
  5. 1-1 5.6%

Goals

Over 2.581.7% Under 2.518.3%
BTTS yes78.7% BTTS no21.3%
Almere City 1+87.1% Almere City 2+60.6%
Heracles Almelo 1+90.7% Heracles Almelo 2+68.6%

Expected goals 2.05 – 2.37. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
58/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)
Over/Under (whole line) · usually 26%
55.6% fair odds 1.80
strong signal · 592 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Over 0.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 384 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Heracles Almelo have an estimated 50.5% win probability, against 29.5% for Almere City and 20.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.05 for Almere City and 2.37 for Heracles Almelo.

Why Almere City

Almere City carry the stronger rating, 1554 Elo against 1399. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 20.0%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Heracles Almelo can win

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Almere City, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Heracles Almelo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Almere City: 44% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 18.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Heracles Almelo: 55% possession, 19.6 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Heracles Almelo are the model's most likely outcome at 50.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-2 at 7.1%. Confidence 58/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.05–2.37 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.47–2.90 2-2 6% 90% 86%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo to win 48.6% 47.5% 33.5% 1.42× 2.11
Almere City to win 34.3% 30.4% 44.4% 0.68× 3.29
Draw 17.1% 19.3% 22.3% 0.87× 5.17
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo & both teams score 40.4% 40.0% 19.7% 2.04× 2.50
Almere City & both teams score 29.1% 25.2% 21.6% 1.16× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 16.8% 17.9% 17.7% 1.01× 5.58
Heracles Almelo & not both score 8.2% 8.4% 13.9% 0.60× 11.94
Almere City & not both score 5.2% 8.4% 22.9% 0.37× 11.96
Draw & not both score 0.3% 4.9% 4.7% 1.03× 20.60
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo & over 1.5 47.0% 45.2% 27.2% 1.66× 2.21
Heracles Almelo & over 2.5 45.1% 45.2% 23.6% 1.91× 2.21
Heracles Almelo & over 3.5 38.3% 34.9% 13.8% 2.53× 2.86
Almere City & over 1.5 33.0% 30.9% 36.8% 0.84× 3.24
Almere City & over 2.5 31.6% 30.9% 30.6% 1.01× 3.24
Almere City & over 3.5 26.3% 26.0% 18.7% 1.40× 3.84
Draw & over 1.5 16.8% 18.0% 17.7% 1.02× 5.56
Draw & over 2.5 13.6% 12.9% 8.2% 1.57× 7.77
Draw & over 3.5 13.6% 12.9% 8.2% 1.57× 7.77
Heracles Almelo & under 3.5 10.2% 12.9% 19.8% 0.65× 7.78
Almere City & under 3.5 8.0% 7.9% 25.9% 0.30× 12.69
Draw & under 2.5 3.5% 4.8% 14.2% 0.34× 20.93
Draw & under 3.5 3.5% 4.8% 14.2% 0.34× 20.93
Heracles Almelo & under 2.5 3.5% 4.8% 10.0% 0.48× 20.93
Almere City & under 2.5 2.7% 4.8% 13.9% 0.34× 20.94
Almere City & under 1.5 1.3% 4.8% 7.7% 0.62× 20.95
Heracles Almelo & under 1.5 1.5% 4.8% 6.3% 0.75× 20.95
Draw & under 1.5 0.3% 4.8% 4.7% 1.01× 20.95
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo (1UP) 71.6% 75.6% 1.32
Almere City (1UP) 61.1% 63.1% 1.59
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo (2UP) 48.6% 50.0% 2.00
Almere City (2UP) 34.3% 31.2% 3.21
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo to win 2nd half 45.4% 45.6% 2.20
Almere City to win 2nd half 31.3% 34.4% 2.91
2nd half drawn 23.3% 23.0% 4.35
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo (+2.5) 90.2% 92.1% 88.1% 1.05× 1.09
Heracles Almelo (+1.5) 80.4% 82.4% 75.6% 1.09× 1.21
Heracles Almelo (+0.5) 65.7% 68.7% 55.6% 1.24× 1.46
Almere City (+0.5) 51.4% 52.3% 66.5% 0.79× 1.91
Heracles Almelo (-0.5) 48.6% 47.7% 33.5% 1.42× 2.10
Almere City (-0.5) 34.3% 31.3% 44.4% 0.70× 3.20
Almere City (-1.5) 19.6% 17.6% 24.4% 0.72× 5.68
Almere City (-2.5) 9.8% 7.9% 11.9% 0.66× 12.65
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo to concede 91.5% 91.7% 81.5% 1.13× 1.09
Heracles Almelo clean sheet 8.5% 8.3% 18.5% 0.45× 12.05
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo to concede in 1st half 65.4% 69.9% 1.43
Heracles Almelo clean sheet in 1st half 34.6% 30.1% 3.32
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo under 6.5 corners 79.9% 75.8% 1.32
Heracles Almelo over 2.5 corners 78.7% 75.8% 1.32
Heracles Almelo under 5.5 corners 68.5% 68.2% 1.47
Heracles Almelo over 3.5 corners 62.7% 61.4% 1.63
Heracles Almelo under 4.5 corners 53.9% 52.4% 1.91
Heracles Almelo over 4.5 corners 46.1% 47.6% 2.10
Heracles Almelo under 3.5 corners 37.3% 38.6% 2.59
Heracles Almelo over 5.5 corners 31.5% 31.8% 3.15
Heracles Almelo under 2.5 corners 21.3% 24.2% 4.14
Heracles Almelo over 6.5 corners 20.1% 24.2% 4.14
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 goals 94.5% 92.4% 72.5% 1.27× 1.08
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 goals 78.5% 76.2% 41.9% 1.82× 1.31
Heracles Almelo under 3.5 goals 67.1% 68.0% 93.0% 0.73× 1.47
Heracles Almelo over 2.5 goals 55.3% 59.6% 18.5% 3.22× 1.68
Heracles Almelo under 2.5 goals 44.7% 40.4% 81.5% 0.50× 2.48
Heracles Almelo over 3.5 goals 32.9% 32.0% 7.0% 4.60× 3.12
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 goals 21.5% 23.8% 58.1% 0.41× 4.21
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 goals 5.5% 7.6% 27.5% 0.28× 13.09
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 in 1st half 68.6% 68.0% 1.47
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 in 1st half 67.7% 67.9% 1.47
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 in 1st half 32.3% 32.1% 3.12
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 in 1st half 31.4% 32.0% 3.13
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City (away no bet) 66.7% 66.5% 66.6% 1.00× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 33.3% 33.5% 33.4% 1.00× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo even goals 50.2% 52.7% 57.1% 0.92× 1.90
Heracles Almelo odd goals 49.8% 47.3% 42.9% 1.10× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves over 1.5 goals 53.5% 56.1% 1.78
Not both halves over 1.5 46.5% 43.9% 2.28
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 93.7% 94.6% 1.06
Both halves under 1.5 goals 6.3% 5.4% 18.59
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 86.9% 88.8% 1.13
Heracles Almelo to score 2+ in a row 63.3% 59.6% 1.68
Almere City to score 2+ in a row 52.4% 51.2% 1.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row 48.8% 46.1% 2.17
Heracles Almelo to score 3+ in a row 31.1% 28.5% 3.51
Almere City to score 3+ in a row 21.4% 19.3% 5.18
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City corners (+3.5) 93.5% 88.7% 1.13
Almere City corners (+2.5) 89.6% 84.2% 1.19
Almere City corners (+1.5) 84.2% 80.0% 1.25
Heracles Almelo corners (+3.5) 60.6% 61.7% 1.62
Almere City corners (-1.5) 59.2% 56.8% 1.76
Heracles Almelo corners (+2.5) 50.8% 52.3% 1.91
Almere City corners (-2.5) 49.2% 47.7% 2.10
Heracles Almelo corners (+1.5) 40.8% 43.2% 2.32
Almere City corners (-3.5) 39.4% 38.3% 2.61
Heracles Almelo corners (-1.5) 15.8% 20.0% 5.01
Heracles Almelo corners (-2.5) 10.4% 15.8% 6.32
Heracles Almelo corners (-3.5) 6.5% 11.3% 8.82
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 48.2% 40.7% 2.46
9-11 corners 28.5% 31.8% 3.15
0-8 corners 23.4% 26.3% 3.80
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 84.3% 79.9% 1.25
Over 8.5 corners 76.6% 76.6% 1.31
Over 9.5 corners 67.6% 67.9% 1.47
Under 12.5 corners 61.1% 62.7% 1.60
Over 10.5 corners 57.9% 57.8% 1.73
Under 11.5 corners 51.8% 52.2% 1.91
Over 11.5 corners 48.2% 47.8% 2.09
Under 10.5 corners 42.1% 42.2% 2.37
Over 12.5 corners 38.9% 37.3% 2.68
Under 9.5 corners 32.4% 32.1% 3.12
Under 8.5 corners 23.4% 23.4% 4.28
Under 7.5 corners 15.7% 20.1% 4.97
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 25.3% 19.8% 4.7% 4.20× 5.04
2-2 6.0% 7.4% 6.7% 1.11× 13.46
2-3 5.8% 7.4% 3.5% 2.13× 13.46
1-2 4.8% 1.7% 7.5% 0.23× 58.56
1-3 4.7% 1.7% 3.7% 0.46× 58.57
3-2 4.9% 1.7% 4.2% 0.40× 58.56
3-3 4.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 58.56
0-0 0.3% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.59
0-1 1.5% 1.7% 6.3% 0.27× 58.58
0-2 2.0% 1.7% 3.7% 0.46× 58.58
0-3 1.9% 1.7% 2.6% 0.65× 58.58
0-4 1.4% 1.7% 1.2% 1.37× 58.58
1-0 1.3% 1.7% 7.7% 0.22× 58.59
1-1 3.2% 1.7% 9.6% 0.18× 58.57
1-4 3.4% 1.7% 2.2% 0.76× 58.57
2-0 1.4% 1.7% 6.3% 0.27× 58.58
2-1 4.1% 1.7% 8.1% 0.21× 58.57
2-4 4.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.14× 58.57
3-0 1.2% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.59
3-1 3.4% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.57
3-4 3.5% 1.7% 1.2% 1.37× 58.57
4-0 0.7% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.59
4-1 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% 1.25× 58.58
4-2 3.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.14× 58.57
4-3 2.9% 1.7% 0.5% 3.43× 58.58
4-4 2.1% 1.7% 0.1% 13.72× 58.58
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo leading at HT (DNB) 53.4% 55.8% 1.79
Almere City leading at HT (DNB) 46.6% 44.2% 2.26
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City or Heracles Almelo (12) 82.9% 80.7% 77.7% 1.04× 1.24
Heracles Almelo or draw (X2) 65.7% 69.6% 55.6% 1.25× 1.44
Almere City or draw (1X) 51.4% 52.5% 66.5% 0.79× 1.91
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City or Heracles Almelo at HT 71.1% 74.6% 1.34
Heracles Almelo or draw at HT 66.9% 66.1% 1.51
Almere City or draw at HT 62.0% 62.2% 1.61
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw (1UP) 71.6% 79.9% 1.25
Almere City or draw (1UP) 61.1% 71.2% 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City or Heracles Almelo in 2nd half 76.7% 77.0% 1.30
Heracles Almelo or draw in 2nd half 68.7% 65.6% 1.53
Almere City or draw in 2nd half 54.6% 54.4% 1.84
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half drawn 54.4% 50.3% 1.99
A half drawn 45.6% 49.7% 2.01
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo (DNB) 58.6% 58.2% 43.0% 1.35× 1.72
Almere City (DNB) 41.4% 41.8% 57.0% 0.73× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo to score first 53.8% 54.3% 1.84
Almere City to score first 45.9% 45.5% 2.20
No goal scored 0.3% 4.2% 23.56
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 86.3% 85.3% 58.7% 1.45× 1.17
Not both teams to score 13.7% 14.7% 41.3% 0.36× 6.80
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 83.2% 77.0% 49.3% 1.56× 1.30
Not both score & over 2.5 7.1% 8.4% 13.1% 0.64× 11.97
Not both score & under 2.5 6.5% 8.4% 28.4% 0.29× 11.97
Both score & under 2.5 3.2% 4.6% 9.6% 0.48× 21.80
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 2+ 55.5% 59.6% 21.0% 2.84× 1.68
Not both teams to score 2+ 44.5% 40.4% 79.0% 0.51× 2.48
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score in 2nd half 62.2% 66.1% 1.51
Not both to score in 2nd half 37.8% 33.9% 2.95
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score 2nd half only 34.2% 27.9% 3.58
Both score in both halves 28.0% 26.1% 3.84
Neither half both score 20.9% 21.1% 4.75
Both score 1st half only 16.9% 15.6% 6.40
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 55.1% 55.1% 1.82
Both teams to score by HT 44.9% 44.9% 2.23
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 85.2% 85.9% 1.16
A half without a goal 14.8% 14.1% 7.12
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 49.1% 47.4% 37.3% 1.27× 2.11
7+ goals 29.2% 26.4% 3.2% 8.18× 3.78
2-3 goals 18.6% 20.2% 41.2% 0.49× 4.94
0-1 goals 3.1% 1.8% 18.5% 0.10× 55.11
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo to score 3+ 55.3% 51.8% 18.5% 2.79× 1.93
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 2 23.2% 22.4% 23.5% 0.95× 4.47
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 1 16.0% 19.5% 30.7% 0.64× 5.12
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 0 5.5% 8.5% 27.5% 0.31× 11.82
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City to score 3+ 44.8% 35.1% 25.4% 1.39× 2.85
Almere City to score exactly 2 25.8% 26.5% 25.9% 1.02× 3.77
Almere City to score exactly 1 20.9% 23.3% 30.5% 0.76× 4.30
Almere City to score exactly 0 8.5% 10.3% 18.5% 0.56× 9.69
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo leading at HT 38.0% 37.8% 2.64
Almere City leading at HT 33.1% 33.9% 2.95
Draw at HT 28.9% 25.4% 3.94
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo -1: 1 51.4% 52.0% 1.92
Heracles Almelo -1: 2 31.4% 30.0% 3.34
Heracles Almelo -1: X 17.2% 17.5% 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:1) 65.7% 65.4% 55.6% 1.18× 1.53
Almere City (0:1) 19.6% 17.8% 24.4% 0.73× 5.62
Draw (0:1) 14.7% 13.9% 20.1% 0.69× 7.21
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:2) 80.4% 82.7% 75.6% 1.09× 1.21
Almere City (0:2) 9.8% 7.7% 11.9% 0.65× 12.95
Draw (0:2) 9.9% 7.7% 12.6% 0.61× 12.95
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:3) 90.2% 92.6% 88.1% 1.05× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.6% 5.8% 5.7% 1.01× 17.26
Almere City (0:3) 4.2% 2.4% 6.3% 0.38× 41.95
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:4) 95.8% 98.1% 93.7% 1.05× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.6% 1.2% 4.4% 0.28× 83.16
Almere City (0:4) 1.6% 1.2% 2.1% 0.57× 83.29
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City (1:0) 51.4% 54.0% 66.5% 0.81× 1.85
Heracles Almelo (1:0) 31.4% 30.3% 15.4% 1.96× 3.30
Draw (1:0) 17.2% 17.0% 18.2% 0.94× 5.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City (2:0) 68.6% 70.7% 84.6% 0.84× 1.42
Heracles Almelo (2:0) 17.8% 15.7% 6.7% 2.33× 6.38
Draw (2:0) 13.6% 10.4% 8.8% 1.18× 9.61
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 57.0% 59.2% 1.69
1st half highest scoring 26.7% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 16.2% 18.1% 5.53
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City to concede 94.5% 93.5% 72.5% 1.29× 1.07
Almere City clean sheet 5.5% 6.5% 27.5% 0.24× 15.32
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City to concede in 1st half 68.6% 68.4% 1.46
Almere City clean sheet in 1st half 31.4% 31.6% 3.16
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City over 2.5 corners 94.0% 88.3% 1.13
Almere City over 3.5 corners 87.0% 85.2% 1.17
Almere City over 4.5 corners 77.2% 76.1% 1.31
Almere City over 5.5 corners 65.4% 67.7% 1.48
Almere City over 6.5 corners 52.9% 53.1% 1.89
Almere City under 6.5 corners 47.1% 46.9% 2.13
Almere City under 5.5 corners 34.6% 32.3% 3.10
Almere City under 4.5 corners 22.8% 23.9% 4.19
Almere City under 3.5 corners 13.0% 14.8% 6.76
Almere City under 2.5 corners 6.0% 11.7% 8.56
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City over 0.5 goals 91.5% 92.2% 81.5% 1.13× 1.08
Almere City under 3.5 goals 76.4% 77.7% 89.8% 0.87× 1.29
Almere City over 1.5 goals 70.6% 74.2% 51.1% 1.45× 1.35
Almere City under 2.5 goals 55.2% 58.8% 74.6% 0.79× 1.70
Almere City over 2.5 goals 44.8% 41.2% 25.4% 1.62× 2.43
Almere City under 1.5 goals 29.4% 25.8% 48.9% 0.53× 3.88
Almere City over 3.5 goals 23.6% 22.3% 10.2% 2.19× 4.48
Almere City under 0.5 goals 8.5% 7.8% 18.5% 0.42× 12.88
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City under 1.5 in 1st half 71.3% 79.2% 1.26
Almere City over 0.5 in 1st half 65.4% 68.5% 1.46
Almere City under 0.5 in 1st half 34.6% 31.5% 3.18
Almere City over 1.5 in 1st half 28.7% 20.8% 4.80
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo (home no bet) 73.9% 66.8% 60.0% 1.11× 1.50
Draw (home no bet) 26.1% 33.2% 40.0% 0.83× 3.01
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City even goals 50.4% 50.6% 51.7% 0.98× 1.98
Almere City odd goals 49.6% 49.4% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other HT score 19.4% 18.9% 5.29
HT 1-1 13.3% 11.1% 9.04
HT 0-1 12.6% 11.1% 9.05
HT 1-0 11.5% 11.0% 9.06
HT 0-0 10.8% 11.0% 9.06
HT 1-2 7.7% 7.1% 14.10
HT 0-2 7.3% 7.1% 14.10
HT 2-1 7.1% 7.1% 14.11
HT 2-0 6.1% 7.1% 14.12
HT 2-2 4.1% 2.2% 44.61
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT 29.4% 26.8% 3.74
Almere City at HT / Almere City at FT 21.5% 22.1% 4.52
Draw at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT 13.2% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Almere City at FT 9.1% 6.1% 16.52
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 6.5% 6.0% 16.60
Almere City at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT 5.9% 6.0% 16.62
Almere City at HT / Draw at FT 5.7% 6.0% 16.62
Heracles Almelo at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.4% 29.09
Heracles Almelo at HT / Almere City at FT 3.7% 3.4% 29.14
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo to score last 53.8% 51.9% 1.93
Almere City to score last 45.9% 46.8% 2.14
No goal scored 0.3% 4.2% 23.56
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 99.7% 95.7% 1.05
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 75.1% 78.3% 1.28
Heracles Almelo to lead by 1 at any time 71.6% 74.0% 1.35
Almere City to lead by 1 at any time 61.1% 61.4% 1.63
Heracles Almelo to lead by 2 at any time 44.9% 39.1% 2.56
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 40.0% 34.8% 2.87
Almere City to lead by 2 at any time 32.7% 29.5% 3.40
Heracles Almelo to lead by 3 at any time 24.7% 19.7% 5.09
Almere City to lead by 3 at any time 15.3% 14.9% 6.72
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City most corners 68.7% 64.6% 1.55
Heracles Almelo most corners 22.8% 27.1% 3.69
Corners level 8.5% 8.4% 11.90
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-6 goals 67.7% 69.0% 78.4% 0.88× 1.45
3-6 goals 61.1% 63.5% 59.1% 1.07× 1.58
1-5 goals 55.0% 53.2% 86.3% 0.62× 1.88
2-5 goals 52.2% 53.1% 72.5% 0.73× 1.88
4-6 goals 49.1% 48.7% 37.3% 1.30× 2.06
3-5 goals 45.6% 48.7% 53.2% 0.91× 2.06
1-4 goals 37.6% 39.2% 74.1% 0.53× 2.55
2-4 goals 34.8% 35.4% 60.3% 0.59× 2.83
4-5 goals 33.5% 35.4% 31.5% 1.12× 2.83
5-6 goals 32.9% 35.4% 18.2% 1.95× 2.83
7+ goals 29.2% 30.2% 3.2% 9.34× 3.31
3-4 goals 28.2% 30.2% 41.0% 0.74× 3.31
1-3 goals 21.4% 24.4% 55.0% 0.44× 4.09
2-3 goals 18.6% 18.6% 41.2% 0.45× 5.37
1-2 goals 9.4% 8.8% 33.2% 0.26× 11.43
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo never behind 38.6% 44.9% 2.23
Almere City never behind 28.1% 30.0% 3.33
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.7% 50.8% 49.5% 1.03× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.3% 49.2% 50.5% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 50.5% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 49.5% 48.5% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd goals in 2nd half 50.0% 52.0% 1.92
Even goals in 2nd half 50.0% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 99.7% 95.5% 95.3% 1.00× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 96.9% 95.5% 81.5% 1.17× 1.05
Over 2.5 goals 90.3% 92.3% 62.2% 1.48× 1.08
Over 3.5 goals 78.3% 77.4% 40.4% 1.91× 1.29
Over 4.5 goals 62.1% 61.8% 21.3% 2.90× 1.62
Under 5.5 goals 55.3% 58.8% 90.9% 0.65× 1.70
Over 5.5 goals 44.7% 41.2% 9.1% 4.54× 2.43
Under 4.5 goals 37.9% 38.2% 78.7% 0.49× 2.62
Under 3.5 goals 21.7% 22.6% 59.6% 0.38× 4.42
Under 2.5 goals 9.7% 7.7% 37.8% 0.20× 12.94
Under 1.5 goals 3.1% 4.5% 18.5% 0.24× 22.20
Under 0.5 goals 0.3% 4.5% 4.7% 0.95× 22.25
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 96.6% 97.2% 77.0% 1.26× 1.03
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 89.0% 86.7% 51.7% 1.68× 1.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 74.1% 72.6% 26.3% 2.76× 1.38
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 65.5% 67.3% 96.6% 0.70× 1.49
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 54.1% 51.8% 10.3% 5.01× 1.93
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 45.9% 48.2% 89.7% 0.54× 2.08
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 34.5% 32.7% 3.4% 9.52× 3.06
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 25.9% 27.4% 73.7% 0.37× 3.65
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 11.0% 13.3% 48.3% 0.27× 7.54
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 3.4% 2.8% 23.0% 0.12× 36.35
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half 89.2% 89.4% 1.12
Over 1.5 in 1st half 65.0% 68.9% 1.45
Under 2.5 in 1st half 61.7% 63.6% 1.57
Over 2.5 in 1st half 38.3% 36.4% 2.75
Under 1.5 in 1st half 35.0% 31.1% 3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half 10.8% 10.6% 9.40
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 95.8% 95.8% 1.04
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 82.1% 82.9% 1.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 60.8% 61.7% 1.62
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 39.2% 38.3% 2.61
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 17.9% 17.1% 5.85
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 4.2% 4.2% 23.54
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo to score in both halves 56.6% 57.5% 1.74
Almere City not to score in both halves 50.6% 56.4% 1.77
Almere City to score in both halves 49.4% 43.6% 2.29
Heracles Almelo not to score in both halves 43.4% 42.5% 2.35
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 86.3% 86.3% 58.7% 1.47× 1.16
Only Heracles Almelo scores 8.2% 7.2% 13.9% 0.52× 13.93
Only Almere City scores 5.2% 7.2% 22.9% 0.31× 13.96
Neither team scores 0.3% 4.6% 4.7% 0.97× 21.88
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
6 or more goals 44.7% 41.4% 9.1% 4.56× 2.41
Exactly 5 goals 17.4% 17.5% 12.3% 1.42× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 16.2% 17.4% 19.3% 0.91× 5.73
Exactly 3 goals 12.0% 12.1% 21.9% 0.55× 8.29
Exactly 2 goals 6.6% 7.6% 19.4% 0.39× 13.14
Exactly 1 goals 2.8% 4.4% 13.9% 0.32× 22.63
Exactly 0 goals 0.3% 4.4% 4.7% 0.93× 22.67
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 82.1% 82.1% 1.22
1 goal in 2nd half 13.7% 14.5% 6.88
No goals in 2nd half 4.2% 4.2% 23.54
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City not to win both halves 89.7% 88.1% 1.13
Heracles Almelo not to win both halves 82.8% 84.2% 1.19
Heracles Almelo to win both halves 17.2% 15.8% 6.34
Almere City to win both halves 10.3% 11.9% 8.44
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo to win either half 66.2% 67.7% 1.48
Almere City to win either half 54.1% 54.8% 1.82
Almere City to win neither half 45.9% 45.2% 2.21
Heracles Almelo to win neither half 33.8% 32.3% 3.10
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Almere City not to win to nil 94.8% 92.1% 77.1% 1.19× 1.09
Heracles Almelo not to win to nil 91.8% 92.0% 86.1% 1.07× 1.09
Heracles Almelo to win to nil 8.2% 8.0% 13.9% 0.57× 12.55
Almere City to win to nil 5.2% 7.9% 22.9% 0.35× 12.61
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heracles Almelo by 3+ 17.8% 16.9% 6.7% 2.52× 5.90
Heracles Almelo by 1 17.2% 16.9% 18.2% 0.93× 5.90
Draw 17.1% 16.9% 22.3% 0.76× 5.90
Almere City by 1 14.7% 11.8% 20.1% 0.59× 8.46
Heracles Almelo by 2 13.6% 11.8% 8.8% 1.34× 8.46
Almere City by 2 9.9% 7.3% 12.6% 0.58× 13.79
Almere City by 3+ 9.8% 7.3% 11.9% 0.61× 13.79
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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