Almere City v Heracles Almelo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 18 September 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627
NED-Eerste Divisie
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-2 7.1%
- 1-2 6.9%
- 2-1 6.0%
- 2-3 5.6%
- 1-1 5.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 81.7% | Under 2.5 | 18.3% |
| BTTS yes | 78.7% | BTTS no | 21.3% |
| Almere City 1+ | 87.1% | Almere City 2+ | 60.6% |
| Heracles Almelo 1+ | 90.7% | Heracles Almelo 2+ | 68.6% |
Expected goals 2.05 – 2.37. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Heracles Almelo have an estimated 50.5% win probability, against 29.5% for Almere City and 20.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.05 for Almere City and 2.37 for Heracles Almelo.
Why Almere City
Almere City carry the stronger rating, 1554 Elo against 1399. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 20.0%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.
Why Heracles Almelo can win
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Almere City, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Heracles Almelo, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Almere City: 44% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 18.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Heracles Almelo: 55% possession, 19.6 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Heracles Almelo are the model's most likely outcome at 50.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-2 at 7.1%. Confidence 58/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.05–2.37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 2.47–2.90 | 2-2 6% | 90% | 86% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo to win | 48.6% | 47.5% | 33.5% | 1.42× | 2.11 |
| Almere City to win | 34.3% | 30.4% | 44.4% | 0.68× | 3.29 |
| Draw | 17.1% | 19.3% | 22.3% | 0.87× | 5.17 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo & both teams score | 40.4% | 40.0% | 19.7% | 2.04× | 2.50 |
| Almere City & both teams score | 29.1% | 25.2% | 21.6% | 1.16× | 3.97 |
| Draw & both teams score | 16.8% | 17.9% | 17.7% | 1.01× | 5.58 |
| Heracles Almelo & not both score | 8.2% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 0.60× | 11.94 |
| Almere City & not both score | 5.2% | 8.4% | 22.9% | 0.37× | 11.96 |
| Draw & not both score | 0.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 1.03× | 20.60 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo & over 1.5 | 47.0% | 45.2% | 27.2% | 1.66× | 2.21 |
| Heracles Almelo & over 2.5 | 45.1% | 45.2% | 23.6% | 1.91× | 2.21 |
| Heracles Almelo & over 3.5 | 38.3% | 34.9% | 13.8% | 2.53× | 2.86 |
| Almere City & over 1.5 | 33.0% | 30.9% | 36.8% | 0.84× | 3.24 |
| Almere City & over 2.5 | 31.6% | 30.9% | 30.6% | 1.01× | 3.24 |
| Almere City & over 3.5 | 26.3% | 26.0% | 18.7% | 1.40× | 3.84 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 16.8% | 18.0% | 17.7% | 1.02× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 13.6% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 1.57× | 7.77 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 13.6% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 1.57× | 7.77 |
| Heracles Almelo & under 3.5 | 10.2% | 12.9% | 19.8% | 0.65× | 7.78 |
| Almere City & under 3.5 | 8.0% | 7.9% | 25.9% | 0.30× | 12.69 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 3.5% | 4.8% | 14.2% | 0.34× | 20.93 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 3.5% | 4.8% | 14.2% | 0.34× | 20.93 |
| Heracles Almelo & under 2.5 | 3.5% | 4.8% | 10.0% | 0.48× | 20.93 |
| Almere City & under 2.5 | 2.7% | 4.8% | 13.9% | 0.34× | 20.94 |
| Almere City & under 1.5 | 1.3% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 0.62× | 20.95 |
| Heracles Almelo & under 1.5 | 1.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 0.75× | 20.95 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 0.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 1.01× | 20.95 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo (1UP) | 71.6% | 75.6% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Almere City (1UP) | 61.1% | 63.1% | — | — | 1.59 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo (2UP) | 48.6% | 50.0% | — | — | 2.00 |
| Almere City (2UP) | 34.3% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.21 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo to win 2nd half | 45.4% | 45.6% | — | — | 2.20 |
| Almere City to win 2nd half | 31.3% | 34.4% | — | — | 2.91 |
| 2nd half drawn | 23.3% | 23.0% | — | — | 4.35 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo (+2.5) | 90.2% | 92.1% | 88.1% | 1.05× | 1.09 |
| Heracles Almelo (+1.5) | 80.4% | 82.4% | 75.6% | 1.09× | 1.21 |
| Heracles Almelo (+0.5) | 65.7% | 68.7% | 55.6% | 1.24× | 1.46 |
| Almere City (+0.5) | 51.4% | 52.3% | 66.5% | 0.79× | 1.91 |
| Heracles Almelo (-0.5) | 48.6% | 47.7% | 33.5% | 1.42× | 2.10 |
| Almere City (-0.5) | 34.3% | 31.3% | 44.4% | 0.70× | 3.20 |
| Almere City (-1.5) | 19.6% | 17.6% | 24.4% | 0.72× | 5.68 |
| Almere City (-2.5) | 9.8% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 0.66× | 12.65 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo to concede | 91.5% | 91.7% | 81.5% | 1.13× | 1.09 |
| Heracles Almelo clean sheet | 8.5% | 8.3% | 18.5% | 0.45× | 12.05 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo to concede in 1st half | 65.4% | 69.9% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Heracles Almelo clean sheet in 1st half | 34.6% | 30.1% | — | — | 3.32 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo under 6.5 corners | 79.9% | 75.8% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Heracles Almelo over 2.5 corners | 78.7% | 75.8% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Heracles Almelo under 5.5 corners | 68.5% | 68.2% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Heracles Almelo over 3.5 corners | 62.7% | 61.4% | — | — | 1.63 |
| Heracles Almelo under 4.5 corners | 53.9% | 52.4% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Heracles Almelo over 4.5 corners | 46.1% | 47.6% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Heracles Almelo under 3.5 corners | 37.3% | 38.6% | — | — | 2.59 |
| Heracles Almelo over 5.5 corners | 31.5% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
| Heracles Almelo under 2.5 corners | 21.3% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.14 |
| Heracles Almelo over 6.5 corners | 20.1% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.14 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo over 0.5 goals | 94.5% | 92.4% | 72.5% | 1.27× | 1.08 |
| Heracles Almelo over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | 76.2% | 41.9% | 1.82× | 1.31 |
| Heracles Almelo under 3.5 goals | 67.1% | 68.0% | 93.0% | 0.73× | 1.47 |
| Heracles Almelo over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | 59.6% | 18.5% | 3.22× | 1.68 |
| Heracles Almelo under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | 40.4% | 81.5% | 0.50× | 2.48 |
| Heracles Almelo over 3.5 goals | 32.9% | 32.0% | 7.0% | 4.60× | 3.12 |
| Heracles Almelo under 1.5 goals | 21.5% | 23.8% | 58.1% | 0.41× | 4.21 |
| Heracles Almelo under 0.5 goals | 5.5% | 7.6% | 27.5% | 0.28× | 13.09 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo over 0.5 in 1st half | 68.6% | 68.0% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Heracles Almelo under 1.5 in 1st half | 67.7% | 67.9% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Heracles Almelo over 1.5 in 1st half | 32.3% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.12 |
| Heracles Almelo under 0.5 in 1st half | 31.4% | 32.0% | — | — | 3.13 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City (away no bet) | 66.7% | 66.5% | 66.6% | 1.00× | 1.51 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 33.3% | 33.5% | 33.4% | 1.00× | 2.98 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo even goals | 50.2% | 52.7% | 57.1% | 0.92× | 1.90 |
| Heracles Almelo odd goals | 49.8% | 47.3% | 42.9% | 1.10× | 2.12 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 53.5% | 56.1% | — | — | 1.78 |
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 46.5% | 43.9% | — | — | 2.28 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 93.7% | 94.6% | — | — | 1.06 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 6.3% | 5.4% | — | — | 18.59 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 86.9% | 88.8% | — | — | 1.13 |
| Heracles Almelo to score 2+ in a row | 63.3% | 59.6% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Almere City to score 2+ in a row | 52.4% | 51.2% | — | — | 1.95 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 48.8% | 46.1% | — | — | 2.17 |
| Heracles Almelo to score 3+ in a row | 31.1% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| Almere City to score 3+ in a row | 21.4% | 19.3% | — | — | 5.18 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City corners (+3.5) | 93.5% | 88.7% | — | — | 1.13 |
| Almere City corners (+2.5) | 89.6% | 84.2% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Almere City corners (+1.5) | 84.2% | 80.0% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Heracles Almelo corners (+3.5) | 60.6% | 61.7% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Almere City corners (-1.5) | 59.2% | 56.8% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Heracles Almelo corners (+2.5) | 50.8% | 52.3% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Almere City corners (-2.5) | 49.2% | 47.7% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Heracles Almelo corners (+1.5) | 40.8% | 43.2% | — | — | 2.32 |
| Almere City corners (-3.5) | 39.4% | 38.3% | — | — | 2.61 |
| Heracles Almelo corners (-1.5) | 15.8% | 20.0% | — | — | 5.01 |
| Heracles Almelo corners (-2.5) | 10.4% | 15.8% | — | — | 6.32 |
| Heracles Almelo corners (-3.5) | 6.5% | 11.3% | — | — | 8.82 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12+ corners | 48.2% | 40.7% | — | — | 2.46 |
| 9-11 corners | 28.5% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
| 0-8 corners | 23.4% | 26.3% | — | — | 3.80 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 corners | 84.3% | 79.9% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 76.6% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 67.6% | 67.9% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Under 12.5 corners | 61.1% | 62.7% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 57.9% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 51.8% | 52.2% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 48.2% | 47.8% | — | — | 2.09 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 42.1% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 38.9% | 37.3% | — | — | 2.68 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 32.4% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.12 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 23.4% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.28 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 15.7% | 20.1% | — | — | 4.97 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 50.4% | — | — | 1.98 |
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 49.6% | — | — | 2.02 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any other score | 25.3% | 19.8% | 4.7% | 4.20× | 5.04 |
| 2-2 | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 1.11× | 13.46 |
| 2-3 | 5.8% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 2.13× | 13.46 |
| 1-2 | 4.8% | 1.7% | 7.5% | 0.23× | 58.56 |
| 1-3 | 4.7% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 0.46× | 58.57 |
| 3-2 | 4.9% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 0.40× | 58.56 |
| 3-3 | 4.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.06× | 58.56 |
| 0-0 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 0.36× | 58.59 |
| 0-1 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 6.3% | 0.27× | 58.58 |
| 0-2 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 0.46× | 58.58 |
| 0-3 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 0.65× | 58.58 |
| 0-4 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.37× | 58.58 |
| 1-0 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 7.7% | 0.22× | 58.59 |
| 1-1 | 3.2% | 1.7% | 9.6% | 0.18× | 58.57 |
| 1-4 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 0.76× | 58.57 |
| 2-0 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 6.3% | 0.27× | 58.58 |
| 2-1 | 4.1% | 1.7% | 8.1% | 0.21× | 58.57 |
| 2-4 | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.14× | 58.57 |
| 3-0 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 0.42× | 58.59 |
| 3-1 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 0.37× | 58.57 |
| 3-4 | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.37× | 58.57 |
| 4-0 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.49× | 58.59 |
| 4-1 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.25× | 58.58 |
| 4-2 | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.14× | 58.57 |
| 4-3 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.43× | 58.58 |
| 4-4 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 13.72× | 58.58 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo leading at HT (DNB) | 53.4% | 55.8% | — | — | 1.79 |
| Almere City leading at HT (DNB) | 46.6% | 44.2% | — | — | 2.26 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City or Heracles Almelo (12) | 82.9% | 80.7% | 77.7% | 1.04× | 1.24 |
| Heracles Almelo or draw (X2) | 65.7% | 69.6% | 55.6% | 1.25× | 1.44 |
| Almere City or draw (1X) | 51.4% | 52.5% | 66.5% | 0.79× | 1.91 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City or Heracles Almelo at HT | 71.1% | 74.6% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Heracles Almelo or draw at HT | 66.9% | 66.1% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Almere City or draw at HT | 62.0% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo or draw (1UP) | 71.6% | 79.9% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Almere City or draw (1UP) | 61.1% | 71.2% | — | — | 1.40 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City or Heracles Almelo in 2nd half | 76.7% | 77.0% | — | — | 1.30 |
| Heracles Almelo or draw in 2nd half | 68.7% | 65.6% | — | — | 1.53 |
| Almere City or draw in 2nd half | 54.6% | 54.4% | — | — | 1.84 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half drawn | 54.4% | 50.3% | — | — | 1.99 |
| A half drawn | 45.6% | 49.7% | — | — | 2.01 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo (DNB) | 58.6% | 58.2% | 43.0% | 1.35× | 1.72 |
| Almere City (DNB) | 41.4% | 41.8% | 57.0% | 0.73× | 2.39 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo to score first | 53.8% | 54.3% | — | — | 1.84 |
| Almere City to score first | 45.9% | 45.5% | — | — | 2.20 |
| No goal scored | 0.3% | 4.2% | — | — | 23.56 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 86.3% | 85.3% | 58.7% | 1.45× | 1.17 |
| Not both teams to score | 13.7% | 14.7% | 41.3% | 0.36× | 6.80 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 83.2% | 77.0% | 49.3% | 1.56× | 1.30 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 7.1% | 8.4% | 13.1% | 0.64× | 11.97 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 6.5% | 8.4% | 28.4% | 0.29× | 11.97 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 3.2% | 4.6% | 9.6% | 0.48× | 21.80 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score 2+ | 55.5% | 59.6% | 21.0% | 2.84× | 1.68 |
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 44.5% | 40.4% | 79.0% | 0.51× | 2.48 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 62.2% | 66.1% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 37.8% | 33.9% | — | — | 2.95 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score 2nd half only | 34.2% | 27.9% | — | — | 3.58 |
| Both score in both halves | 28.0% | 26.1% | — | — | 3.84 |
| Neither half both score | 20.9% | 21.1% | — | — | 4.75 |
| Both score 1st half only | 16.9% | 15.6% | — | — | 6.40 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 55.1% | 55.1% | — | — | 1.82 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 44.9% | 44.9% | — | — | 2.23 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 85.2% | 85.9% | — | — | 1.16 |
| A half without a goal | 14.8% | 14.1% | — | — | 7.12 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6 goals | 49.1% | 47.4% | 37.3% | 1.27× | 2.11 |
| 7+ goals | 29.2% | 26.4% | 3.2% | 8.18× | 3.78 |
| 2-3 goals | 18.6% | 20.2% | 41.2% | 0.49× | 4.94 |
| 0-1 goals | 3.1% | 1.8% | 18.5% | 0.10× | 55.11 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo to score 3+ | 55.3% | 51.8% | 18.5% | 2.79× | 1.93 |
| Heracles Almelo to score exactly 2 | 23.2% | 22.4% | 23.5% | 0.95× | 4.47 |
| Heracles Almelo to score exactly 1 | 16.0% | 19.5% | 30.7% | 0.64× | 5.12 |
| Heracles Almelo to score exactly 0 | 5.5% | 8.5% | 27.5% | 0.31× | 11.82 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City to score 3+ | 44.8% | 35.1% | 25.4% | 1.39× | 2.85 |
| Almere City to score exactly 2 | 25.8% | 26.5% | 25.9% | 1.02× | 3.77 |
| Almere City to score exactly 1 | 20.9% | 23.3% | 30.5% | 0.76× | 4.30 |
| Almere City to score exactly 0 | 8.5% | 10.3% | 18.5% | 0.56× | 9.69 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo leading at HT | 38.0% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.64 |
| Almere City leading at HT | 33.1% | 33.9% | — | — | 2.95 |
| Draw at HT | 28.9% | 25.4% | — | — | 3.94 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo -1: 1 | 51.4% | 52.0% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Heracles Almelo -1: 2 | 31.4% | 30.0% | — | — | 3.34 |
| Heracles Almelo -1: X | 17.2% | 17.5% | — | — | 5.71 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo (0:1) | 65.7% | 65.4% | 55.6% | 1.18× | 1.53 |
| Almere City (0:1) | 19.6% | 17.8% | 24.4% | 0.73× | 5.62 |
| Draw (0:1) | 14.7% | 13.9% | 20.1% | 0.69× | 7.21 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo (0:2) | 80.4% | 82.7% | 75.6% | 1.09× | 1.21 |
| Almere City (0:2) | 9.8% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 0.65× | 12.95 |
| Draw (0:2) | 9.9% | 7.7% | 12.6% | 0.61× | 12.95 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo (0:3) | 90.2% | 92.6% | 88.1% | 1.05× | 1.08 |
| Draw (0:3) | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 1.01× | 17.26 |
| Almere City (0:3) | 4.2% | 2.4% | 6.3% | 0.38× | 41.95 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo (0:4) | 95.8% | 98.1% | 93.7% | 1.05× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 2.6% | 1.2% | 4.4% | 0.28× | 83.16 |
| Almere City (0:4) | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.57× | 83.29 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City (1:0) | 51.4% | 54.0% | 66.5% | 0.81× | 1.85 |
| Heracles Almelo (1:0) | 31.4% | 30.3% | 15.4% | 1.96× | 3.30 |
| Draw (1:0) | 17.2% | 17.0% | 18.2% | 0.94× | 5.87 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City (2:0) | 68.6% | 70.7% | 84.6% | 0.84× | 1.42 |
| Heracles Almelo (2:0) | 17.8% | 15.7% | 6.7% | 2.33× | 6.38 |
| Draw (2:0) | 13.6% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 1.18× | 9.61 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 57.0% | 59.2% | — | — | 1.69 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 26.7% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Halves equal | 16.2% | 18.1% | — | — | 5.53 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City to concede | 94.5% | 93.5% | 72.5% | 1.29× | 1.07 |
| Almere City clean sheet | 5.5% | 6.5% | 27.5% | 0.24× | 15.32 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City to concede in 1st half | 68.6% | 68.4% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Almere City clean sheet in 1st half | 31.4% | 31.6% | — | — | 3.16 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City over 2.5 corners | 94.0% | 88.3% | — | — | 1.13 |
| Almere City over 3.5 corners | 87.0% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Almere City over 4.5 corners | 77.2% | 76.1% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Almere City over 5.5 corners | 65.4% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Almere City over 6.5 corners | 52.9% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Almere City under 6.5 corners | 47.1% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Almere City under 5.5 corners | 34.6% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.10 |
| Almere City under 4.5 corners | 22.8% | 23.9% | — | — | 4.19 |
| Almere City under 3.5 corners | 13.0% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.76 |
| Almere City under 2.5 corners | 6.0% | 11.7% | — | — | 8.56 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City over 0.5 goals | 91.5% | 92.2% | 81.5% | 1.13× | 1.08 |
| Almere City under 3.5 goals | 76.4% | 77.7% | 89.8% | 0.87× | 1.29 |
| Almere City over 1.5 goals | 70.6% | 74.2% | 51.1% | 1.45× | 1.35 |
| Almere City under 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 58.8% | 74.6% | 0.79× | 1.70 |
| Almere City over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 41.2% | 25.4% | 1.62× | 2.43 |
| Almere City under 1.5 goals | 29.4% | 25.8% | 48.9% | 0.53× | 3.88 |
| Almere City over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 22.3% | 10.2% | 2.19× | 4.48 |
| Almere City under 0.5 goals | 8.5% | 7.8% | 18.5% | 0.42× | 12.88 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City under 1.5 in 1st half | 71.3% | 79.2% | — | — | 1.26 |
| Almere City over 0.5 in 1st half | 65.4% | 68.5% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Almere City under 0.5 in 1st half | 34.6% | 31.5% | — | — | 3.18 |
| Almere City over 1.5 in 1st half | 28.7% | 20.8% | — | — | 4.80 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo (home no bet) | 73.9% | 66.8% | 60.0% | 1.11× | 1.50 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 26.1% | 33.2% | 40.0% | 0.83× | 3.01 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City even goals | 50.4% | 50.6% | 51.7% | 0.98× | 1.98 |
| Almere City odd goals | 49.6% | 49.4% | 48.3% | 1.02× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any other HT score | 19.4% | 18.9% | — | — | 5.29 |
| HT 1-1 | 13.3% | 11.1% | — | — | 9.04 |
| HT 0-1 | 12.6% | 11.1% | — | — | 9.05 |
| HT 1-0 | 11.5% | 11.0% | — | — | 9.06 |
| HT 0-0 | 10.8% | 11.0% | — | — | 9.06 |
| HT 1-2 | 7.7% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.10 |
| HT 0-2 | 7.3% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.10 |
| HT 2-1 | 7.1% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.11 |
| HT 2-0 | 6.1% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.12 |
| HT 2-2 | 4.1% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.61 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT | 29.4% | 26.8% | — | — | 3.74 |
| Almere City at HT / Almere City at FT | 21.5% | 22.1% | — | — | 4.52 |
| Draw at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT | 13.2% | 12.7% | — | — | 7.89 |
| Draw at HT / Almere City at FT | 9.1% | 6.1% | — | — | 16.52 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 6.5% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.60 |
| Almere City at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT | 5.9% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.62 |
| Almere City at HT / Draw at FT | 5.7% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.62 |
| Heracles Almelo at HT / Draw at FT | 4.9% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.09 |
| Heracles Almelo at HT / Almere City at FT | 3.7% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.14 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo to score last | 53.8% | 51.9% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Almere City to score last | 45.9% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| No goal scored | 0.3% | 4.2% | — | — | 23.56 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 99.7% | 95.7% | — | — | 1.05 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 75.1% | 78.3% | — | — | 1.28 |
| Heracles Almelo to lead by 1 at any time | 71.6% | 74.0% | — | — | 1.35 |
| Almere City to lead by 1 at any time | 61.1% | 61.4% | — | — | 1.63 |
| Heracles Almelo to lead by 2 at any time | 44.9% | 39.1% | — | — | 2.56 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 40.0% | 34.8% | — | — | 2.87 |
| Almere City to lead by 2 at any time | 32.7% | 29.5% | — | — | 3.40 |
| Heracles Almelo to lead by 3 at any time | 24.7% | 19.7% | — | — | 5.09 |
| Almere City to lead by 3 at any time | 15.3% | 14.9% | — | — | 6.72 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City most corners | 68.7% | 64.6% | — | — | 1.55 |
| Heracles Almelo most corners | 22.8% | 27.1% | — | — | 3.69 |
| Corners level | 8.5% | 8.4% | — | — | 11.90 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-6 goals | 67.7% | 69.0% | 78.4% | 0.88× | 1.45 |
| 3-6 goals | 61.1% | 63.5% | 59.1% | 1.07× | 1.58 |
| 1-5 goals | 55.0% | 53.2% | 86.3% | 0.62× | 1.88 |
| 2-5 goals | 52.2% | 53.1% | 72.5% | 0.73× | 1.88 |
| 4-6 goals | 49.1% | 48.7% | 37.3% | 1.30× | 2.06 |
| 3-5 goals | 45.6% | 48.7% | 53.2% | 0.91× | 2.06 |
| 1-4 goals | 37.6% | 39.2% | 74.1% | 0.53× | 2.55 |
| 2-4 goals | 34.8% | 35.4% | 60.3% | 0.59× | 2.83 |
| 4-5 goals | 33.5% | 35.4% | 31.5% | 1.12× | 2.83 |
| 5-6 goals | 32.9% | 35.4% | 18.2% | 1.95× | 2.83 |
| 7+ goals | 29.2% | 30.2% | 3.2% | 9.34× | 3.31 |
| 3-4 goals | 28.2% | 30.2% | 41.0% | 0.74× | 3.31 |
| 1-3 goals | 21.4% | 24.4% | 55.0% | 0.44× | 4.09 |
| 2-3 goals | 18.6% | 18.6% | 41.2% | 0.45× | 5.37 |
| 1-2 goals | 9.4% | 8.8% | 33.2% | 0.26× | 11.43 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo never behind | 38.6% | 44.9% | — | — | 2.23 |
| Almere City never behind | 28.1% | 30.0% | — | — | 3.33 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of goals | 49.7% | 50.8% | 49.5% | 1.03× | 1.97 |
| Odd number of goals | 50.3% | 49.2% | 50.5% | 0.97× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 50.5% | 51.5% | — | — | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 49.5% | 48.5% | — | — | 2.06 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 50.0% | 52.0% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Even goals in 2nd half | 50.0% | 48.0% | — | — | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 99.7% | 95.5% | 95.3% | 1.00× | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 96.9% | 95.5% | 81.5% | 1.17× | 1.05 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90.3% | 92.3% | 62.2% | 1.48× | 1.08 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 78.3% | 77.4% | 40.4% | 1.91× | 1.29 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 62.1% | 61.8% | 21.3% | 2.90× | 1.62 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 55.3% | 58.8% | 90.9% | 0.65× | 1.70 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 44.7% | 41.2% | 9.1% | 4.54× | 2.43 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 37.9% | 38.2% | 78.7% | 0.49× | 2.62 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 21.7% | 22.6% | 59.6% | 0.38× | 4.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 9.7% | 7.7% | 37.8% | 0.20× | 12.94 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.1% | 4.5% | 18.5% | 0.24× | 22.20 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 0.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 0.95× | 22.25 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 96.6% | 97.2% | 77.0% | 1.26× | 1.03 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 89.0% | 86.7% | 51.7% | 1.68× | 1.15 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 74.1% | 72.6% | 26.3% | 2.76× | 1.38 |
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 65.5% | 67.3% | 96.6% | 0.70× | 1.49 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 54.1% | 51.8% | 10.3% | 5.01× | 1.93 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 45.9% | 48.2% | 89.7% | 0.54× | 2.08 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 34.5% | 32.7% | 3.4% | 9.52× | 3.06 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 25.9% | 27.4% | 73.7% | 0.37× | 3.65 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 11.0% | 13.3% | 48.3% | 0.27× | 7.54 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 3.4% | 2.8% | 23.0% | 0.12× | 36.35 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 89.2% | 89.4% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 65.0% | 68.9% | — | — | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 61.7% | 63.6% | — | — | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 38.3% | 36.4% | — | — | 2.75 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 35.0% | 31.1% | — | — | 3.22 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 10.8% | 10.6% | — | — | 9.40 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 95.8% | 95.8% | — | — | 1.04 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 82.1% | 82.9% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 60.8% | 61.7% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 39.2% | 38.3% | — | — | 2.61 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 17.9% | 17.1% | — | — | 5.85 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 4.2% | 4.2% | — | — | 23.54 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo to score in both halves | 56.6% | 57.5% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Almere City not to score in both halves | 50.6% | 56.4% | — | — | 1.77 |
| Almere City to score in both halves | 49.4% | 43.6% | — | — | 2.29 |
| Heracles Almelo not to score in both halves | 43.4% | 42.5% | — | — | 2.35 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 86.3% | 86.3% | 58.7% | 1.47× | 1.16 |
| Only Heracles Almelo scores | 8.2% | 7.2% | 13.9% | 0.52× | 13.93 |
| Only Almere City scores | 5.2% | 7.2% | 22.9% | 0.31× | 13.96 |
| Neither team scores | 0.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 0.97× | 21.88 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 or more goals | 44.7% | 41.4% | 9.1% | 4.56× | 2.41 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 17.4% | 17.5% | 12.3% | 1.42× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 16.2% | 17.4% | 19.3% | 0.91× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 12.0% | 12.1% | 21.9% | 0.55× | 8.29 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 6.6% | 7.6% | 19.4% | 0.39× | 13.14 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 2.8% | 4.4% | 13.9% | 0.32× | 22.63 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 0.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 0.93× | 22.67 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 82.1% | 82.1% | — | — | 1.22 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 13.7% | 14.5% | — | — | 6.88 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 4.2% | 4.2% | — | — | 23.54 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City not to win both halves | 89.7% | 88.1% | — | — | 1.13 |
| Heracles Almelo not to win both halves | 82.8% | 84.2% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Heracles Almelo to win both halves | 17.2% | 15.8% | — | — | 6.34 |
| Almere City to win both halves | 10.3% | 11.9% | — | — | 8.44 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo to win either half | 66.2% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Almere City to win either half | 54.1% | 54.8% | — | — | 1.82 |
| Almere City to win neither half | 45.9% | 45.2% | — | — | 2.21 |
| Heracles Almelo to win neither half | 33.8% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.10 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City not to win to nil | 94.8% | 92.1% | 77.1% | 1.19× | 1.09 |
| Heracles Almelo not to win to nil | 91.8% | 92.0% | 86.1% | 1.07× | 1.09 |
| Heracles Almelo to win to nil | 8.2% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 0.57× | 12.55 |
| Almere City to win to nil | 5.2% | 7.9% | 22.9% | 0.35× | 12.61 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo by 3+ | 17.8% | 16.9% | 6.7% | 2.52× | 5.90 |
| Heracles Almelo by 1 | 17.2% | 16.9% | 18.2% | 0.93× | 5.90 |
| Draw | 17.1% | 16.9% | 22.3% | 0.76× | 5.90 |
| Almere City by 1 | 14.7% | 11.8% | 20.1% | 0.59× | 8.46 |
| Heracles Almelo by 2 | 13.6% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 1.34× | 8.46 |
| Almere City by 2 | 9.9% | 7.3% | 12.6% | 0.58× | 13.79 |
| Almere City by 3+ | 9.8% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 0.61× | 13.79 |