Almería v Burgos — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 4 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Almería

14:00

Burgos

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 682h before kick-off

Almería win

46.9%

model 46.7%

Draw

26.5%

model 25.4%

Burgos win

26.6%

model 27.9%

472727

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.1%
1-0 11.9%
2-1 9.1%
0-1 8.8%
2-0 8.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.7%	Under 2.5	53.3%
BTTS yes	50.3%	BTTS no	49.7%
Almería 1+	77.0%	Almería 2+	43.2%
Burgos 1+	65.7%	Burgos 2+	29.0%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.07. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

52/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

1-3 goals

Multi goal · usually 63%

69.1% fair odds 1.45

moderate signal · 2188 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

83.0% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1236 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Almería.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Almería have an estimated 46.9% win probability, against 26.6% for Burgos and 26.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.47 for Almería and 1.07 for Burgos.

Why Almería

Nothing in the data singles out Almería.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Burgos can win

Burgos carry the stronger rating, 1583 Elo against 1537. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Almería, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Burgos, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Almería: 57% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Burgos: 42% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Almería's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Almería are the model's most likely outcome at 46.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. Confidence 52/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	472528	1.47–1.07	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	422631	1.34–1.11	1-1 12%	44%	49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to win	42.2%	43.0%	45.4%	0.95×	2.33
Burgos to win	31.4%	30.4%	28.1%	1.08×	3.29
Draw	26.4%	27.9%	26.6%	1.05×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería & not both score	24.6%	21.9%	23.7%	0.93×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.1%	17.9%	17.6%	1.02×	5.58
Burgos & not both score	18.0%	17.9%	13.5%	1.33×	5.58
Almería & both teams score	17.6%	17.9%	21.9%	0.82×	5.58
Burgos & both teams score	13.5%	13.3%	14.7%	0.90×	7.54
Draw & not both score	8.3%	8.4%	9.1%	0.92×	11.92

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería & under 3.5	31.6%	30.8%	32.3%	0.96×	3.24
Almería & over 1.5	30.3%	30.8%	32.5%	0.95×	3.24
Burgos & under 3.5	24.4%	21.6%	19.7%	1.10×	4.62
Almería & over 2.5	22.6%	21.6%	26.2%	0.83×	4.62
Burgos & over 1.5	21.5%	21.6%	19.5%	1.11×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	20.8%	21.6%	20.3%	1.07×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	20.8%	21.6%	20.3%	1.07×	4.62
Almería & under 2.5	19.6%	18.0%	19.3%	0.93×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.1%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.56
Burgos & over 2.5	16.1%	18.0%	16.6%	1.08×	5.56
Burgos & under 2.5	15.3%	18.0%	11.6%	1.56×	5.56
Almería & under 1.5	11.9%	12.9%	13.0%	0.99×	7.77
Almería & over 3.5	10.6%	12.9%	13.2%	0.97×	7.77
Burgos & under 1.5	9.9%	7.9%	8.7%	0.90×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	8.3%	7.9%	9.1%	0.86×	12.70
Burgos & over 3.5	7.0%	7.9%	8.5%	0.92×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.7%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.7%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (1UP)	56.8%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Burgos (1UP)	47.3%	43.3%	—	—	2.31

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (2UP)	42.2%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Burgos (2UP)	31.4%	31.0%	—	—	3.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	37.5%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Almería to win 2nd half	34.1%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Burgos to win 2nd half	28.4%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos (+2.5)	93.0%	92.1%	92.3%	1.00×	1.09
Burgos (+1.5)	80.7%	82.4%	80.4%	1.02×	1.21
Almería (+0.5)	68.6%	68.7%	71.9%	0.96×	1.46
Burgos (+0.5)	57.8%	57.0%	54.6%	1.04×	1.75
Almería (-0.5)	42.2%	43.0%	45.4%	0.95×	2.33
Burgos (-0.5)	31.4%	31.3%	28.1%	1.11×	3.20
Almería (-1.5)	19.3%	17.6%	19.6%	0.90×	5.68
Almería (-2.5)	7.0%	7.9%	7.7%	1.03×	12.65

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos to concede	73.8%	76.5%	77.5%	0.99×	1.31
Burgos clean sheet	26.2%	23.5%	22.5%	1.04×	4.26

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos clean sheet in 1st half	56.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Burgos to concede in 1st half	43.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos under 6.5 corners	91.8%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Burgos under 5.5 corners	84.6%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Burgos under 4.5 corners	73.1%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Burgos over 2.5 corners	62.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Burgos under 3.5 corners	57.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Burgos over 3.5 corners	43.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Burgos under 2.5 corners	37.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Burgos over 4.5 corners	26.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Burgos over 5.5 corners	15.4%	18.5%	—	—	5.39
Burgos over 6.5 corners	8.2%	9.9%	—	—	10.06

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos under 3.5 goals	97.3%	97.6%	97.0%	1.01×	1.03
Burgos under 2.5 goals	89.8%	87.9%	89.2%	0.99×	1.14
Burgos under 1.5 goals	69.4%	68.0%	69.5%	0.98×	1.47
Burgos over 0.5 goals	67.2%	68.0%	67.3%	1.01×	1.47
Burgos under 0.5 goals	32.8%	32.0%	32.7%	0.98×	3.12
Burgos over 1.5 goals	30.6%	32.0%	30.5%	1.05×	3.12
Burgos over 2.5 goals	10.2%	12.1%	10.8%	1.12×	8.27
Burgos over 3.5 goals	2.7%	2.4%	3.0%	0.80×	40.84

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos under 1.5 in 1st half	92.6%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Burgos under 0.5 in 1st half	64.0%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Burgos over 0.5 in 1st half	36.0%	35.3%	—	—	2.83
Burgos over 1.5 in 1st half	7.4%	5.9%	—	—	17.04

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (away no bet)	61.5%	62.1%	63.1%	0.98×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	38.5%	37.9%	36.9%	1.03×	2.64

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos even goals	55.4%	56.9%	54.7%	1.04×	1.76
Burgos odd goals	44.6%	43.1%	45.3%	0.95×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.32

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	57.5%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Both halves under 1.5 goals	42.5%	40.1%	—	—	2.49

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.1%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
Almería to score 2+ in a row	31.4%	28.7%	—	—	3.48
Burgos to score 2+ in a row	23.4%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.1%	16.4%	—	—	6.11
Almería to score 3+ in a row	10.1%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
Burgos to score 3+ in a row	6.2%	5.6%	—	—	17.86

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería corners (+3.5)	95.1%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Almería corners (+2.5)	91.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Almería corners (+1.5)	85.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Burgos corners (+3.5)	66.5%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Almería corners (-1.5)	56.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Burgos corners (+2.5)	55.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Almería corners (-2.5)	44.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Burgos corners (+1.5)	43.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Almería corners (-3.5)	33.5%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Burgos corners (-1.5)	14.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Burgos corners (-2.5)	8.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Burgos corners (-3.5)	4.9%	4.3%	—	—	23.51

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.4%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	22.3%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.4%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	77.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	69.4%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	63.1%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.5%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.6%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	48.4%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.5%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	36.9%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	30.6%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 11.5 corners	22.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	15.7%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.5%	11.4%	11.3%	1.02×	8.74
1-0	11.9%	11.4%	13.0%	0.88×	8.74
0-1	9.9%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.47
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.47
0-0	8.3%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.47
1-2	7.2%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.47
2-0	7.7%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.47
0-2	5.3%	7.4%	2.9%	2.52×	13.47
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.50
0-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.35×	58.51
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.52
1-3	2.7%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.51
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.03×	58.52
2-3	1.8%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.51
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.52
3-0	3.4%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.50
3-1	3.8%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.50
3-2	2.1%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.51
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.52
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	8.13×	58.52
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.48×	58.52
4-1	1.3%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.52
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.2%	1.48×	58.52
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.42×	58.52
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.13×	58.52
Any other score	1.8%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería leading at HT (DNB)	58.0%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Burgos leading at HT (DNB)	42.0%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería or Burgos (12)	73.6%	72.1%	73.4%	0.98×	1.39
Almería or draw (1X)	68.6%	69.6%	71.9%	0.97×	1.44
Burgos or draw (X2)	57.8%	57.0%	54.6%	1.04×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería or draw at HT	77.2%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Burgos or draw at HT	68.5%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Almería or Burgos at HT	54.2%	47.8%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería or draw (1UP)	68.6%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Burgos or draw (1UP)	57.8%	62.8%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería or draw in 2nd half	71.6%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Burgos or draw in 2nd half	65.9%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Almería or Burgos in 2nd half	62.5%	63.7%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.5%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Neither half drawn	33.5%	30.6%	—	—	3.27

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (DNB)	57.3%	58.2%	61.8%	0.94×	1.72
Burgos (DNB)	42.7%	41.8%	38.2%	1.09×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to score first	50.1%	53.7%	—	—	1.86
Burgos to score first	41.7%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	8.3%	7.5%	—	—	13.29

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.8%	51.4%	46.1%	1.12×	1.94
Both teams to score	49.2%	48.6%	53.9%	0.90×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	43.1%	41.6%	39.9%	1.04×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	36.7%	38.5%	42.8%	0.90×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.5%	12.3%	11.3%	1.09×	8.12
Not both score & over 2.5	7.7%	8.4%	6.3%	1.33×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.2%	85.7%	85.7%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.8%	14.3%	14.3%	1.00×	6.98

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.1%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.9%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	62.5%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Both score 2nd half only	21.8%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Both score 1st half only	11.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.50
Both score in both halves	4.1%	4.9%	—	—	20.25

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.3%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	15.7%	17.1%	—	—	5.85

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	51.5%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A goal in each half	48.5%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.7%	47.4%	41.4%	1.14×	2.11
0-1 goals	30.1%	30.7%	30.7%	1.00×	3.25
4-6 goals	21.9%	22.8%	26.5%	0.86×	4.38
7+ goals	1.3%	1.8%	1.6%	1.15×	55.12

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos to score exactly 1	36.6%	36.0%	36.9%	0.97×	2.78
Burgos to score exactly 0	32.8%	33.8%	32.7%	1.04×	2.95
Burgos to score exactly 2	20.4%	22.4%	19.8%	1.13×	4.47
Burgos to score 3+	10.2%	12.8%	10.8%	1.18×	7.82

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to score exactly 1	35.1%	35.6%	35.6%	1.00×	2.81
Almería to score exactly 0	26.2%	26.5%	22.5%	1.18×	3.77
Almería to score exactly 2	23.5%	23.3%	25.0%	0.93×	4.30
Almería to score 3+	15.2%	18.9%	17.0%	1.11×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.8%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Almería leading at HT	31.5%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
Burgos leading at HT	22.8%	20.1%	—	—	4.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería -1: 2	57.8%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Almería -1: X	22.9%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Almería -1: 1	19.3%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos (0:1)	57.8%	55.8%	54.6%	1.02×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	22.9%	24.3%	26.0%	0.93×	4.12
Almería (0:1)	19.3%	17.8%	19.6%	0.91×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos (0:2)	80.7%	82.7%	80.4%	1.03×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	12.3%	11.0%	12.0%	0.92×	9.11
Almería (0:2)	7.0%	7.7%	7.7%	1.01×	12.96

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos (0:3)	93.0%	92.6%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.9%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	41.99
Almería (0:3)	2.0%	2.4%	2.4%	0.98×	42.12

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos (0:4)	98.0%	98.1%	97.6%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	2.1%	0.57×	83.43
Almería (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	0.4%	2.85×	83.56

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (1:0)	68.6%	69.9%	71.9%	0.97×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	19.1%	17.0%	18.0%	0.95×	5.87
Burgos (1:0)	12.3%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.81

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (2:0)	87.7%	88.4%	89.8%	0.98×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.5%	6.4%	7.0%	0.92×	15.51
Burgos (2:0)	3.8%	2.3%	3.3%	0.69×	44.27

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.8%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	26.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to concede	67.2%	66.5%	67.3%	0.99×	1.50
Almería clean sheet	32.8%	33.5%	32.7%	1.02×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería clean sheet in 1st half	64.0%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Almería to concede in 1st half	36.0%	35.3%	—	—	2.83

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería over 2.5 corners	86.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Almería over 3.5 corners	74.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Almería under 6.5 corners	66.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Almería over 4.5 corners	60.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Almería under 5.5 corners	54.0%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Almería over 5.5 corners	46.0%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Almería under 4.5 corners	39.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Almería over 6.5 corners	33.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Almería under 3.5 corners	25.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Almería under 2.5 corners	13.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería under 3.5 goals	95.3%	96.3%	93.7%	1.03×	1.04
Almería under 2.5 goals	84.8%	82.1%	83.0%	0.99×	1.22
Almería over 0.5 goals	73.8%	74.2%	77.5%	0.96×	1.35
Almería under 1.5 goals	61.3%	63.4%	58.0%	1.09×	1.58
Almería over 1.5 goals	38.7%	36.6%	42.0%	0.87×	2.73
Almería under 0.5 goals	26.2%	25.8%	22.5%	1.15×	3.88
Almería over 2.5 goals	15.2%	17.9%	17.0%	1.05×	5.60
Almería over 3.5 goals	4.7%	3.7%	6.3%	0.58×	27.37

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería under 1.5 in 1st half	88.6%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Almería under 0.5 in 1st half	56.3%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Almería over 0.5 in 1st half	43.7%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Almería over 1.5 in 1st half	11.4%	10.0%	—	—	9.97

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos (home no bet)	54.3%	51.6%	51.3%	1.01×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	45.7%	48.4%	48.7%	0.99×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería even goals	53.4%	50.6%	51.8%	0.98×	1.98
Almería odd goals	46.6%	49.4%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	36.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
HT 1-0	20.8%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
HT 0-1	16.1%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 1-1	9.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.14
HT 2-0	6.0%	7.0%	—	—	14.19
HT 0-2	3.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.80
Any other HT score	3.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.84
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.87
HT 1-2	2.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.92
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	44.03

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería at HT / Almería at FT	24.4%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Burgos at HT / Burgos at FT	16.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Almería at FT	15.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Burgos at FT	13.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Almería at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Burgos at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
Almería at HT / Burgos at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.91
Burgos at HT / Almería at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to score last	50.0%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Burgos to score last	41.7%	40.3%	—	—	2.48
No goal scored	8.3%	7.5%	—	—	13.29

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.7%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Almería to lead by 1 at any time	56.8%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Burgos to lead by 1 at any time	47.3%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	41.7%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Almería to lead by 2 at any time	24.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Burgos to lead by 2 at any time	17.1%	15.0%	—	—	6.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Almería to lead by 3 at any time	8.6%	6.6%	—	—	15.17
Burgos to lead by 3 at any time	4.9%	1.6%	—	—	61.51

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería most corners	67.5%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Burgos most corners	22.4%	26.0%	—	—	3.85
Corners level	10.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.8%	87.4%	85.8%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.5%	83.5%	78.1%	1.07×	1.20
2-6 goals	68.6%	69.0%	67.8%	1.02×	1.45
1-3 goals	68.5%	69.0%	63.0%	1.10×	1.45
2-5 goals	66.0%	69.0%	64.2%	1.07×	1.45
2-4 goals	59.7%	59.2%	56.6%	1.05×	1.69
1-2 goals	47.4%	48.7%	42.0%	1.16×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.7%	48.7%	41.4%	1.17×	2.06
3-6 goals	43.1%	43.6%	47.5%	0.92×	2.30
3-5 goals	40.5%	43.6%	44.0%	0.99×	2.30
3-4 goals	34.1%	35.4%	36.3%	0.97×	2.83
4-6 goals	21.9%	24.5%	26.5%	0.92×	4.09
4-5 goals	19.3%	18.6%	22.9%	0.81×	5.37
5-6 goals	9.0%	8.8%	11.4%	0.77×	11.42
7+ goals	1.3%	2.5%	1.6%	1.61×	39.46

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería never behind	44.4%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Burgos never behind	34.9%	35.9%	—	—	2.78

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.7%	50.8%	48.5%	1.05×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.3%	49.2%	51.5%	0.95×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	43.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.4%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.1%	95.5%	94.8%	1.01×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.7%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.8%	87.7%	87.2%	1.01×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	76.8%	77.4%	72.0%	1.07×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	69.9%	66.2%	69.3%	0.96×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	55.6%	58.8%	51.0%	1.15×	1.70
Over 2.5 goals	44.4%	41.2%	49.0%	0.84×	2.43
Under 1.5 goals	30.1%	33.8%	30.7%	1.10×	2.96
Over 3.5 goals	23.2%	22.6%	28.0%	0.81×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	10.2%	12.3%	12.8%	0.96×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	8.3%	7.7%	9.1%	0.84×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	3.9%	4.5%	5.2%	0.87×	22.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.7%	97.3%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.8%	97.2%	94.4%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.2%	86.7%	84.9%	1.02×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.5%	72.6%	64.6%	1.12×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	59.6%	55.5%	61.5%	0.90×	1.80
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	40.4%	44.5%	38.5%	1.15×	2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	29.5%	27.4%	35.4%	0.77×	3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	11.8%	13.3%	15.1%	0.88×	7.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.2%	2.8%	5.6%	0.49×	36.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.3%	2.7%	1.6%	1.68×	36.38

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.6%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.9%	70.9%	—	—	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	64.0%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	36.0%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.1%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.4%	7.3%	—	—	13.74

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	82.6%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.2%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	58.2%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	41.8%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.8%	20.1%	—	—	4.97
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.4%	17.1%	—	—	5.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos not to score in both halves	82.5%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Almería not to score in both halves	76.7%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Almería to score in both halves	23.3%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Burgos to score in both halves	17.5%	15.6%	—	—	6.41

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.2%	50.4%	53.9%	0.93×	1.98
Only Almería scores	24.6%	22.4%	23.7%	0.95×	4.47
Only Burgos scores	18.0%	16.1%	13.5%	1.20×	6.22
Neither team scores	8.3%	7.2%	9.1%	0.79×	13.90

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.5%	24.9%	20.4%	1.22×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	21.8%	22.6%	21.7%	1.04×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	21.2%	22.6%	21.1%	1.07×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	13.0%	12.1%	15.2%	0.79×	8.29
Exactly 0 goals	8.3%	7.6%	9.1%	0.84×	13.09
Exactly 5 goals	6.4%	7.6%	7.8%	0.98×	13.10
6 or more goals	3.9%	4.4%	5.2%	0.86×	22.68

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	41.8%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
1 goal in 2nd half	34.4%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	23.8%	23.1%	—	—	4.33

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos not to win both halves	93.6%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Almería not to win both halves	89.3%	88.1%	—	—	1.14
Almería to win both halves	10.7%	11.9%	—	—	8.39
Burgos to win both halves	6.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.67

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos to win neither half	55.2%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Almería to win either half	54.9%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Almería to win neither half	45.1%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Burgos to win either half	44.8%	40.6%	—	—	2.46

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos not to win to nil	82.0%	83.0%	86.5%	0.96×	1.21
Almería not to win to nil	75.4%	78.0%	76.3%	1.02×	1.28
Almería to win to nil	24.6%	22.0%	23.7%	0.93×	4.55
Burgos to win to nil	18.0%	17.0%	13.5%	1.26×	5.89

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.4%	27.8%	26.6%	1.05×	3.60
Almería by 1	22.9%	24.2%	26.0%	0.93×	4.14
Burgos by 1	19.1%	17.0%	18.0%	0.94×	5.90
Almería by 2	12.3%	11.8%	12.0%	0.99×	8.47
Burgos by 2	8.5%	7.3%	7.0%	1.03×	13.79
Almería by 3+	7.0%	7.2%	7.7%	0.94×	13.80
Burgos by 3+	3.8%	2.7%	3.3%	0.83×	37.02