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AmaZulu v Marumo Gallants — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · RSA-Premiership · 2627

RSA-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
AmaZulu win
60.7%
model 56.4%
Draw
28.6%
model 29.4%
Marumo Gallants win
10.7%
model 14.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (282 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 14.3%
  2. 1-1 13.4%
  3. 2-0 12.9%
  4. 0-0 12.5%
  5. 2-1 8.9%

Goals

Over 2.539.3% Under 2.560.7%
BTTS yes41.5% BTTS no58.5%
AmaZulu 1+79.1% AmaZulu 2+46.4%
Marumo Gallants 1+49.8% Marumo Gallants 2+15.2%

Expected goals 1.57 – 0.69. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
84/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
AmaZulu (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 42%
56.8% fair odds 1.76
strong signal · 920 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
AmaZulu not to win both halves
Win both halves
82.9% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • AmaZulu carry the stronger rating, 1571 Elo against 1360.
  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

AmaZulu have an estimated 60.7% win probability, against 28.6% for the draw and 10.7% for Marumo Gallants. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.57 for AmaZulu and 0.69 for Marumo Gallants.

Why AmaZulu

AmaZulu carry the stronger rating, 1571 Elo against 1360. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.6%. A combined 2.26 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Marumo Gallants can win

Nothing in the data singles out Marumo Gallants.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for AmaZulu, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Marumo Gallants, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

AmaZulu: 40% possession, 7.8 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Marumo Gallants: 48% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

AmaZulu are the model's most likely outcome at 60.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 14.3%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.57–0.69 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.52–0.56 1-0 17% 34% 35%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu to win 58.8% 54.1% 42.1% 1.29× 1.85
Draw 29.6% 27.9% 30.7% 0.91× 3.59
Marumo Gallants to win 11.6% 13.3% 27.4% 0.48× 7.52
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu & not both score 42.6% 40.1% 29.9% 1.34× 2.49
AmaZulu & both teams score 16.2% 17.9% 12.4% 1.45× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 15.1% 17.9% 17.9% 1.00× 5.58
Draw & not both score 14.5% 13.3% 13.0% 1.02× 7.55
Marumo Gallants & not both score 7.5% 8.4% 18.5% 0.45× 11.95
Marumo Gallants & both teams score 4.1% 4.9% 9.1% 0.53× 20.48
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu & under 3.5 46.8% 45.2% 35.6% 1.27× 2.21
AmaZulu & over 1.5 41.7% 40.3% 26.6% 1.51× 2.48
AmaZulu & under 2.5 31.5% 30.9% 26.0% 1.19× 3.24
AmaZulu & over 2.5 27.3% 26.0% 16.3% 1.60× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 27.1% 26.0% 27.8% 0.93× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 27.1% 26.0% 27.8% 0.93× 3.84
AmaZulu & under 1.5 17.1% 18.0% 15.7% 1.15× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 15.1% 18.0% 17.9% 1.01× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 14.5% 12.9% 13.0% 0.99× 7.77
AmaZulu & over 3.5 12.0% 12.9% 6.7% 1.92× 7.78
Marumo Gallants & under 3.5 10.4% 12.9% 23.0% 0.56× 7.78
Marumo Gallants & over 1.5 6.5% 7.9% 17.1% 0.46× 12.69
Marumo Gallants & under 2.5 7.0% 7.9% 15.7% 0.50× 12.69
Marumo Gallants & under 1.5 5.1% 7.9% 10.6% 0.75× 12.69
Marumo Gallants & over 2.5 4.6% 4.8% 12.0% 0.40× 20.93
Draw & over 2.5 2.5% 4.8% 3.0% 1.57× 20.94
Draw & over 3.5 2.5% 4.8% 3.0% 1.57× 20.94
Marumo Gallants & over 3.5 1.2% 4.8% 4.7% 1.02× 20.95
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu (1UP) 68.2% 70.1% 1.43
Marumo Gallants (1UP) 24.6% 23.6% 4.24
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu (2UP) 58.8% 55.4% 1.81
Marumo Gallants (2UP) 11.6% 13.3% 7.51
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu to win 2nd half 46.1% 45.6% 2.19
2nd half drawn 40.9% 41.1% 2.43
Marumo Gallants to win 2nd half 13.1% 12.1% 8.29
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu (+0.5) 88.4% 88.5% 72.6% 1.22× 1.13
Marumo Gallants (+2.5) 86.5% 88.5% 93.7% 0.94× 1.13
Marumo Gallants (+1.5) 67.6% 68.7% 80.7% 0.85× 1.46
AmaZulu (-0.5) 58.8% 57.0% 42.1% 1.36× 1.75
Marumo Gallants (+0.5) 41.2% 43.0% 57.9% 0.74× 2.33
AmaZulu (-1.5) 32.4% 31.3% 19.3% 1.62× 3.20
AmaZulu (-2.5) 13.5% 11.5% 6.3% 1.83× 8.69
Marumo Gallants (-0.5) 11.6% 11.5% 27.4% 0.42× 8.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants to concede 78.0% 79.0% 68.7% 1.15× 1.27
Marumo Gallants clean sheet 22.0% 21.0% 31.3% 0.67× 4.76
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants to concede in 1st half 47.9% 50.9% 1.97
Marumo Gallants clean sheet in 1st half 52.1% 49.1% 2.04
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants over 2.5 corners 78.8% 75.8% 1.32
Marumo Gallants under 6.5 corners 73.6% 72.3% 1.38
Marumo Gallants over 3.5 corners 64.7% 61.4% 1.63
Marumo Gallants under 5.5 corners 62.8% 61.4% 1.63
Marumo Gallants over 4.5 corners 50.3% 52.4% 1.91
Marumo Gallants under 4.5 corners 49.7% 47.6% 2.10
Marumo Gallants over 5.5 corners 37.2% 38.6% 2.59
Marumo Gallants under 3.5 corners 35.3% 38.6% 2.59
Marumo Gallants over 6.5 corners 26.4% 27.7% 3.62
Marumo Gallants under 2.5 corners 21.2% 24.2% 4.14
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants under 3.5 goals 99.7% 97.6% 98.0% 1.00× 1.03
Marumo Gallants under 2.5 goals 98.1% 97.6% 92.5% 1.06× 1.03
Marumo Gallants under 1.5 goals 89.1% 87.9% 78.3% 1.12× 1.14
Marumo Gallants under 0.5 goals 57.1% 59.6% 42.7% 1.40× 1.68
Marumo Gallants over 0.5 goals 42.9% 40.4% 57.3% 0.70× 2.48
Marumo Gallants over 1.5 goals 10.9% 12.1% 21.7% 0.56× 8.26
Marumo Gallants over 2.5 goals 1.9% 2.4% 7.5% 0.32× 41.10
Marumo Gallants over 3.5 goals 0.3% 2.4% 2.0% 1.19× 41.19
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants under 1.5 in 1st half 97.8% 95.9% 1.04
Marumo Gallants under 0.5 in 1st half 79.9% 76.4% 1.31
Marumo Gallants over 0.5 in 1st half 20.1% 23.6% 4.23
Marumo Gallants over 1.5 in 1st half 2.2% 4.1% 24.48
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu (away no bet) 66.5% 66.5% 57.8% 1.15× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 33.5% 33.5% 42.2% 0.80× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants even goals 66.3% 64.7% 58.5% 1.11× 1.55
Marumo Gallants odd goals 33.7% 35.3% 41.5% 0.85× 2.84
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 92.6% 92.5% 1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals 7.4% 7.5% 13.28
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 50.8% 50.2% 1.99
Not both halves under 1.5 49.2% 49.8% 2.01
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 46.1% 46.0% 2.18
AmaZulu to score 2+ in a row 40.5% 38.1% 2.63
Either team to score 3+ in a row 16.9% 16.4% 6.10
AmaZulu to score 3+ in a row 15.9% 16.4% 6.11
Marumo Gallants to score 2+ in a row 7.5% 5.6% 17.92
Marumo Gallants to score 3+ in a row 1.0% 2.5% 39.50
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants corners (+3.5) 86.6% 84.2% 1.19
Marumo Gallants corners (+2.5) 80.2% 80.0% 1.25
AmaZulu corners (+3.5) 77.4% 75.5% 1.33
Marumo Gallants corners (+1.5) 72.0% 69.9% 1.43
AmaZulu corners (+2.5) 69.0% 66.8% 1.50
AmaZulu corners (+1.5) 59.1% 56.8% 1.76
Marumo Gallants corners (-1.5) 40.9% 43.2% 2.32
Marumo Gallants corners (-2.5) 31.0% 33.2% 3.01
AmaZulu corners (-1.5) 28.0% 30.1% 3.32
Marumo Gallants corners (-3.5) 22.6% 24.5% 4.08
AmaZulu corners (-2.5) 19.8% 20.0% 5.00
AmaZulu corners (-3.5) 13.4% 15.8% 6.31
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 47.1% 40.6% 2.46
9-11 corners 27.1% 31.8% 3.15
12+ corners 25.7% 31.8% 3.15
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 80.8% 79.8% 1.25
Under 11.5 corners 74.3% 72.5% 1.38
Under 10.5 corners 66.3% 67.9% 1.47
Over 7.5 corners 63.3% 62.7% 1.60
Under 9.5 corners 57.2% 57.8% 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 52.9% 52.2% 1.91
Under 8.5 corners 47.1% 47.8% 2.09
Over 9.5 corners 42.8% 42.2% 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 36.7% 37.3% 2.68
Over 10.5 corners 33.7% 32.1% 3.12
Over 11.5 corners 25.7% 27.5% 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 19.2% 20.2% 4.96
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 17.1% 13.8% 15.7% 0.88× 7.27
0-0 14.5% 11.5% 13.0% 0.88× 8.73
2-0 14.4% 11.5% 10.6% 1.08× 8.73
1-1 12.6% 11.5% 15.0% 0.76× 8.73
2-1 8.1% 7.4% 6.5% 1.14× 13.46
3-0 7.3% 7.4% 3.5% 2.15× 13.46
0-1 5.1% 7.4% 10.6% 0.70× 13.46
0-2 2.0% 1.7% 5.3% 0.32× 58.58
0-3 0.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.59
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.20× 58.59
1-2 3.0% 1.7% 5.3% 0.32× 58.58
1-3 0.6% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.59
1-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.59
2-2 2.3% 1.7% 2.8% 0.60× 58.58
2-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.10× 58.59
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.20× 58.59
3-1 4.1% 1.7% 2.6% 0.65× 58.57
3-2 1.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.59
3-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 4.20× 58.59
3-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 8.40× 58.59
4-0 2.8% 1.7% 0.6% 2.80× 58.58
4-1 1.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.20× 58.58
4-2 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 4.20× 58.59
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.20× 58.59
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 8.40× 58.59
Any other score 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 0.93× 58.58
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu leading at HT (DNB) 78.8% 78.2% 1.28
Marumo Gallants leading at HT (DNB) 21.2% 21.8% 4.59
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu or draw (1X) 88.4% 86.7% 72.6% 1.19× 1.15
AmaZulu or Marumo Gallants (12) 70.4% 72.1% 69.3% 1.04× 1.39
Marumo Gallants or draw (X2) 41.2% 45.9% 57.9% 0.79× 2.18
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu or draw at HT 89.1% 88.4% 1.13
Marumo Gallants or draw at HT 59.5% 56.9% 1.76
AmaZulu or Marumo Gallants at HT 51.4% 47.4% 2.11
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu or draw (1UP) 88.4% 91.8% 1.09
Marumo Gallants or draw (1UP) 41.2% 52.5% 1.90
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu or draw in 2nd half 86.9% 87.9% 1.14
AmaZulu or Marumo Gallants in 2nd half 59.1% 58.9% 1.70
Marumo Gallants or draw in 2nd half 53.9% 54.4% 1.84
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 67.6% 69.9% 1.43
Neither half drawn 32.4% 30.1% 3.32
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu (DNB) 83.5% 80.4% 60.5% 1.33× 1.24
Marumo Gallants (DNB) 16.5% 19.6% 39.5% 0.50× 5.11
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu to score first 62.4% 64.3% 1.56
Marumo Gallants to score first 23.1% 22.9% 4.36
No goal scored 14.5% 10.7% 9.30
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 64.6% 56.5% 61.0% 0.93× 1.77
Both teams to score 35.4% 43.5% 39.0% 1.11× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 53.0% 47.1% 54.3% 0.87× 2.13
Both score & over 2.5 22.8% 27.7% 24.2% 1.15× 3.61
Both score & under 2.5 12.6% 12.3% 15.0% 0.82× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 11.6% 12.3% 6.9% 1.78× 8.11
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 95.1% 91.7% 94.3% 0.97× 1.09
Both teams to score 2+ 4.9% 8.3% 5.7% 1.46× 12.04
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 82.8% 74.4% 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 17.2% 25.6% 3.91
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 74.5% 69.1% 1.45
Both score 2nd half only 15.6% 15.6% 6.43
Both score 1st half only 8.4% 6.7% 14.87
Both score in both halves 1.6% 4.8% 20.65
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 90.1% 90.5% 1.11
Both teams to score by HT 9.9% 9.5% 10.55
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 58.3% 57.3% 1.74
A goal in each half 41.7% 42.7% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.7% 47.4% 47.4% 1.00× 2.11
0-1 goals 36.6% 35.0% 38.8% 0.90× 2.86
4-6 goals 15.1% 20.2% 13.0% 1.55× 4.95
7+ goals 0.5% 1.8% 1.2% 1.48× 55.39
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants to score exactly 0 57.1% 51.9% 42.7% 1.22× 1.93
Marumo Gallants to score exactly 1 32.0% 33.9% 35.8% 0.95× 2.95
Marumo Gallants to score exactly 2 9.0% 8.5% 14.4% 0.59× 11.78
Marumo Gallants to score 3+ 1.9% 4.5% 7.5% 0.60× 22.35
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu to score exactly 1 33.3% 32.6% 38.6% 0.85× 3.06
AmaZulu to score exactly 2 25.2% 26.5% 20.3% 1.30× 3.77
AmaZulu to score exactly 0 22.0% 23.3% 31.3% 0.74× 4.30
AmaZulu to score 3+ 19.5% 18.9% 10.2% 1.86× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 48.6% 52.6% 1.90
AmaZulu leading at HT 40.5% 43.1% 2.32
Marumo Gallants leading at HT 10.9% 11.6% 8.63
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu -1: 2 41.2% 42.7% 2.34
AmaZulu -1: 1 32.4% 30.0% 3.33
AmaZulu -1: X 26.4% 26.5% 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants (0:1) 41.2% 42.7% 57.9% 0.74× 2.34
AmaZulu (0:1) 32.4% 29.9% 19.3% 1.55× 3.34
Draw (0:1) 26.4% 27.0% 23.0% 1.18× 3.70
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants (0:2) 67.6% 72.2% 80.7% 0.90× 1.38
Draw (0:2) 19.0% 15.3% 13.2% 1.16× 6.53
AmaZulu (0:2) 13.5% 11.0% 6.3% 1.75× 9.08
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants (0:3) 86.5% 90.7% 93.7% 0.97× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 9.0% 5.8% 5.3% 1.10× 17.21
AmaZulu (0:3) 4.5% 2.4% 1.2% 1.96× 41.94
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants (0:4) 95.5% 98.1% 98.8% 0.99× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 3.3% 1.2% 0.8% 1.48× 83.09
AmaZulu (0:4) 1.3% 1.2% 0.6% 1.97× 83.33
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu (1:0) 88.4% 86.4% 72.6% 1.19× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 8.5% 6.9% 16.3% 0.43× 14.47
Marumo Gallants (1:0) 3.1% 3.2% 11.4% 0.28× 31.59
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu (2:0) 96.9% 96.9% 88.6% 1.09× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 2.6% 2.3% 7.7% 0.29× 44.25
Marumo Gallants (2:0) 0.5% 2.3% 3.9% 0.58× 44.38
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 41.9% 46.0% 2.17
Halves equal 32.5% 30.4% 3.30
1st half highest scoring 25.6% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu clean sheet 57.1% 61.0% 42.7% 1.43× 1.64
AmaZulu to concede 42.9% 39.0% 57.3% 0.68× 2.56
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu clean sheet in 1st half 79.9% 79.0% 1.27
AmaZulu to concede in 1st half 20.1% 21.0% 4.76
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu under 6.5 corners 81.8% 81.3% 1.23
AmaZulu under 5.5 corners 72.2% 71.5% 1.40
AmaZulu over 2.5 corners 71.8% 71.5% 1.40
AmaZulu under 4.5 corners 59.7% 57.4% 1.74
AmaZulu over 3.5 corners 55.5% 57.4% 1.74
AmaZulu under 3.5 corners 44.5% 42.6% 2.35
AmaZulu over 4.5 corners 40.3% 42.6% 2.35
AmaZulu under 2.5 corners 28.2% 28.5% 3.51
AmaZulu over 5.5 corners 27.8% 28.5% 3.51
AmaZulu over 6.5 corners 18.2% 18.7% 5.36
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu under 3.5 goals 93.2% 92.2% 96.5% 0.96× 1.08
AmaZulu under 2.5 goals 80.5% 82.1% 89.8% 0.91× 1.22
AmaZulu over 0.5 goals 78.0% 77.7% 68.7% 1.13× 1.29
AmaZulu under 1.5 goals 55.3% 58.8% 69.7% 0.84× 1.70
AmaZulu over 1.5 goals 44.7% 41.2% 30.3% 1.36× 2.43
AmaZulu under 0.5 goals 22.0% 22.3% 31.3% 0.71× 4.49
AmaZulu over 2.5 goals 19.5% 17.9% 10.2% 1.76× 5.60
AmaZulu over 3.5 goals 6.8% 7.8% 3.5% 2.24× 12.90
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu under 1.5 in 1st half 86.1% 89.9% 1.11
AmaZulu over 0.5 in 1st half 47.9% 51.0% 1.96
AmaZulu under 0.5 in 1st half 52.1% 49.0% 2.04
AmaZulu over 1.5 in 1st half 13.9% 10.1% 9.88
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 71.8% 66.6% 52.8% 1.26× 1.50
Marumo Gallants (home no bet) 28.2% 33.4% 47.2% 0.71× 2.99
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu even goals 52.4% 50.6% 53.7% 0.94× 1.97
AmaZulu odd goals 47.6% 49.4% 46.3% 1.07× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 42.0% 40.0% 2.50
HT 1-0 26.8% 28.6% 3.49
HT 0-1 9.0% 7.1% 14.08
HT 2-0 8.8% 7.1% 14.08
HT 1-1 6.4% 7.1% 14.12
Any other HT score 3.0% 2.2% 44.70
HT 2-1 2.0% 2.2% 44.78
HT 0-2 1.0% 2.2% 44.86
HT 1-2 0.7% 2.2% 44.89
HT 2-2 0.2% 2.2% 44.92
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu at HT / AmaZulu at FT 35.8% 40.9% 2.44
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 21.9% 22.1% 4.52
Draw at HT / AmaZulu at FT 21.3% 22.1% 4.53
Marumo Gallants at HT / Marumo Gallants at FT 5.6% 6.0% 16.63
Draw at HT / Marumo Gallants at FT 5.4% 6.0% 16.63
AmaZulu at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.4% 29.12
Marumo Gallants at HT / Draw at FT 3.6% 3.4% 29.14
Marumo Gallants at HT / AmaZulu at FT 1.7% 3.4% 29.22
AmaZulu at HT / Marumo Gallants at FT 0.6% 3.4% 29.26
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu to score last 62.9% 62.4% 1.60
Marumo Gallants to score last 22.6% 26.3% 3.80
No goal scored 14.5% 10.1% 9.86
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 85.5% 90.1% 1.11
AmaZulu to lead by 1 at any time 68.2% 69.5% 1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 41.2% 39.0% 2.57
AmaZulu to lead by 2 at any time 36.3% 34.7% 2.88
Marumo Gallants to lead by 1 at any time 24.6% 19.7% 5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 15.6% 14.9% 6.72
AmaZulu to lead by 3 at any time 14.8% 10.5% 9.52
Marumo Gallants to lead by 2 at any time 4.9% 1.6% 60.89
Marumo Gallants to lead by 3 at any time 0.7% 1.5% 65.28
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants most corners 51.5% 52.9% 1.89
AmaZulu most corners 37.8% 38.6% 2.59
Corners level 10.7% 10.6% 9.40
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 83.6% 83.5% 85.0% 0.98× 1.20
1-4 goals 79.5% 78.6% 81.1% 0.97× 1.27
1-3 goals 69.8% 69.0% 73.2% 0.94× 1.45
2-6 goals 62.8% 63.5% 60.2% 1.06× 1.58
2-5 goals 61.4% 63.5% 59.1% 1.07× 1.58
2-4 goals 57.4% 59.2% 55.3% 1.07× 1.69
1-2 goals 51.1% 53.1% 56.3% 0.94× 1.88
2-3 goals 47.7% 48.7% 47.4% 1.03× 2.06
3-6 goals 33.8% 35.4% 29.9% 1.18× 2.83
3-5 goals 32.4% 35.4% 28.9% 1.23× 2.83
3-4 goals 28.4% 30.2% 25.0% 1.21× 3.31
4-6 goals 15.1% 18.6% 13.0% 1.43× 5.38
4-5 goals 13.7% 14.9% 12.0% 1.24× 6.73
5-6 goals 5.4% 8.7% 5.1% 1.72× 11.46
7+ goals 0.5% 2.5% 1.2% 2.07× 39.56
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AmaZulu never behind 60.9% 67.4% 1.48
Marumo Gallants never behind 17.3% 18.5% 5.41
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 45.3% 50.8% 47.8% 1.06× 1.97
Even number of goals 54.7% 49.2% 52.2% 0.94× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 59.3% 58.0% 1.72
Odd goals in 1st half 40.7% 42.0% 2.38
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 55.9% 59.5% 1.68
Odd goals in 2nd half 44.1% 40.5% 2.47
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 98.1% 95.5% 97.8% 0.98× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 94.0% 92.3% 93.9% 0.98× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 85.5% 87.7% 87.0% 1.01× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 84.3% 82.4% 86.0% 0.96× 1.21
Under 2.5 goals 65.6% 66.3% 69.1% 0.96× 1.51
Over 1.5 goals 63.4% 61.8% 61.2% 1.01× 1.62
Under 1.5 goals 36.6% 38.2% 38.8% 0.99× 2.62
Over 2.5 goals 34.4% 33.7% 30.9% 1.09× 2.96
Over 3.5 goals 15.7% 17.6% 14.0% 1.26× 5.67
Under 0.5 goals 14.5% 12.3% 13.0% 0.95× 8.11
Over 4.5 goals 6.0% 7.7% 6.1% 1.27× 12.96
Over 5.5 goals 1.9% 4.5% 2.2% 2.01× 22.22
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.4% 97.3% 98.8% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 98.0% 97.3% 97.7% 1.00× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 93.4% 92.5% 93.4% 0.99× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 80.7% 81.1% 83.1% 0.98× 1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 51.6% 51.8% 55.7% 0.93× 1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 48.4% 48.2% 44.3% 1.09× 2.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 19.3% 18.9% 16.9% 1.12× 5.29
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 6.6% 7.5% 6.6% 1.14× 13.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.0% 2.7% 2.3% 1.18× 36.39
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.6% 2.7% 1.2% 2.23× 36.43
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 94.1% 93.0% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 77.8% 78.7% 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 58.0% 63.9% 1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half 42.0% 36.1% 2.77
Over 1.5 in 1st half 22.2% 21.3% 4.69
Over 2.5 in 1st half 5.9% 7.0% 14.24
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 87.9% 85.4% 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 69.2% 67.2% 1.49
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 65.6% 67.0% 1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 34.4% 33.0% 3.03
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 30.8% 32.8% 3.05
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 12.1% 14.6% 6.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants not to score in both halves 94.3% 90.7% 1.10
AmaZulu not to score in both halves 72.3% 74.3% 1.35
AmaZulu to score in both halves 27.7% 25.7% 3.89
Marumo Gallants to score in both halves 5.7% 9.3% 10.79
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only AmaZulu scores 42.6% 46.6% 29.9% 1.56× 2.15
Both teams score 35.4% 39.8% 39.0% 1.02× 2.51
Neither team scores 14.5% 11.0% 13.0% 0.84× 9.13
Only Marumo Gallants scores 7.5% 7.2% 18.5% 0.39× 13.94
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 29.0% 25.0% 30.5% 0.82× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 22.1% 22.6% 26.0% 0.87× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 18.7% 17.5% 17.1% 1.02× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 14.5% 12.1% 13.0% 0.93× 8.29
Exactly 4 goals 9.7% 7.6% 8.1% 0.94× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 4.0% 4.4% 4.1% 1.09× 22.61
6 or more goals 1.9% 4.4% 2.2% 1.98× 22.64
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 34.8% 33.9% 2.95
2+ goals in 2nd half 34.4% 33.9% 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 30.8% 33.8% 2.96
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants not to win both halves 98.5% 97.2% 1.03
AmaZulu not to win both halves 80.9% 84.1% 1.19
AmaZulu to win both halves 19.1% 15.9% 6.29
Marumo Gallants to win both halves 1.5% 2.8% 36.12
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants to win neither half 77.6% 79.8% 1.25
AmaZulu to win either half 67.5% 67.8% 1.48
AmaZulu to win neither half 32.5% 32.2% 3.11
Marumo Gallants to win either half 22.4% 20.2% 4.95
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Marumo Gallants not to win to nil 92.5% 92.0% 81.5% 1.13× 1.09
AmaZulu not to win to nil 57.4% 58.9% 70.1% 0.84× 1.70
AmaZulu to win to nil 42.6% 41.1% 29.9% 1.38× 2.43
Marumo Gallants to win to nil 7.5% 8.0% 18.5% 0.43× 12.56
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 29.6% 27.8% 30.7% 0.91× 3.59
AmaZulu by 1 26.4% 27.8% 23.0% 1.21× 3.59
AmaZulu by 2 19.0% 16.9% 13.2% 1.28× 5.90
AmaZulu by 3+ 13.5% 11.8% 6.3% 1.88× 8.46
Marumo Gallants by 1 8.5% 7.2% 16.3% 0.45× 13.80
Marumo Gallants by 2 2.6% 2.7% 7.7% 0.35× 36.99
Marumo Gallants by 3+ 0.5% 2.7% 3.9% 0.70× 37.05
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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