Arsenal v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 1 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 9
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
15 – 8
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.24 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-0.45 – -0.44
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
54.7%
Draw
26.1%
Fulham win
19.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.0 xG
conceded 5
from 10.1 xG
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.68–0.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.73–0.77 | 1-0 14% | 46% | 44% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 2.45 xGFulham 1.44 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Fulham attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 5' |
Arsenal |
Thomas Partey | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Arsenal |
Jakub Kiwior | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Arsenal |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 26' |
Arsenal |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
 Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 36' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ethan Nwaneri |
| 42' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 43' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sander Berge |
| 50' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 51' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 53' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 57' |
Arsenal |
William Saliba | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 59' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 60' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ethan Nwaneri |
| 63' |
Fulham |
Adama Traoré | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.93 | Open Play | — | Goal | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 72' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 78' |
Fulham |
Jorge Cuenca | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Andreas Pereira |
| 80' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.62 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 87' |
Fulham |
Ryan Sessegnon | 0.55 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 92' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ryan Sessegnon |
| 95' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Andreas Pereira |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Martinelli FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.39 | 1.31 | 1.65 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.37 | 0.83 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.28 | 0.51 |
| Mikel Merino FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Thomas Partey MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Jakub Kiwior Sub | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Ethan Nwaneri FWR | 70 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| Bukayo Saka Sub | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Gabriel DC | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Leandro Trossard Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Cuenca DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Antonee Robinson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| Timothy Castagne DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Sander Berge MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Issa Diop DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adama Traoré AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sasa Lukic MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Andreas Pereira Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.72 |
| Alex Iwobi Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Willian Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.17 |
| Rodrigo Muniz Sub | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Ryan Sessegnon Sub | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.10 | 0.65 |