AS Roma v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 September 2026 · FIFA:2000000026 · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.1%
- 1-0 8.9%
- 0-1 8.7%
- 2-1 8.4%
- 1-2 8.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 51.8% | Under 2.5 | 48.2% |
| BTTS yes | 55.8% | BTTS no | 44.2% |
| AS Roma 1+ | 75.1% | AS Roma 2+ | 40.5% |
| Atalanta 1+ | 74.3% | Atalanta 2+ | 39.3% |
Expected goals 1.39 – 1.36. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- AS Roma have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Atalanta have allowed 1.42.
- At home AS Roma average 1.35 xG a match.
- They have had 14 days' rest to Atalanta's 5.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 0/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- AS Roma have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
AS Roma have an estimated 38.0% win probability, against 36.4% for Atalanta and 25.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.39 for AS Roma and 1.36 for Atalanta.
Why AS Roma
AS Roma have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Atalanta have allowed 1.42. At home AS Roma average 1.35 xG a match. They have had 14 days' rest to Atalanta's 5.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 25.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.39 to 1.36.
Why Atalanta can win
Atalanta carry the stronger rating, 1642 Elo against 1500. Atalanta have created 1.40 xG a match over their last five while AS Roma have allowed 1.35. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Atalanta average 1.69 xG a match.
Key players
Atalanta's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Nikola Krstovic (0.46), Charles De Ketelaere (0.40), Gianluca Scamacca (0.32).
Availability
No lineup on record for AS Roma, so availability is unknown. 1 of Atalanta's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
AS Roma: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Atalanta: 49% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.11 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 21:18 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
AS Roma are the model's most likely outcome at 38.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. Confidence 0/100, data quality 0/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.39–1.36 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.