Aston Villa v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 4 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 9
On target
10 – 1
Shots in box
16 – 7
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
1.33 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.23 – -0.13
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
51.6%
Draw
21.0%
Brentford win
27.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa have scored 16 from 16.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLLDWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.10–1.50 | 2-1 9% | 70% | 68% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 3.23 xGBrentford 1.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yehor Yarmolyuk |
| 13' |
 Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 20' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ollie Watkins |
| 22' |
Aston Villa |
Leon Bailey | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 22' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 32' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 33' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 37' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 41' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 43' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 45' |
Aston Villa |
Lucas Digne | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ollie Watkins |
| 47' |
Aston Villa |
Tyrone Mings | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 50' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.30 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 52' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 53' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Yoane Wissa |
| 53' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 53' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 57' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Brentford |
Yehor Yarmolyuk | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ethan Pinnock |
| 71' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 74' |
Aston Villa |
Jhon Durán | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 75' |
Aston Villa |
Tyrone Mings | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 77' |
Brentford |
Fabio Carvalho | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 82' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jhon Durán |
| 84' |
Aston Villa |
Jhon Durán | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 88' |
Aston Villa |
Jhon Durán | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jhon Durán |
| 93' |
Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McGinn AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Morgan Rogers AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.30 | 1.25 |
| Tyrone Mings DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.91 | 0.73 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.32 | 1.05 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Boubacar Kamara DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 68 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1.51 | 0.10 | 0.78 |
| Leon Bailey AMR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jhon Durán Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.73 | 0.11 | 0.84 |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emiliano Buendía Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikkel Damsgaard MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.11 | 0.51 |
| Vitaly Janelt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ethan Pinnock DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Sepp van den Berg DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Bryan Mbeumo FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Kevin Schade FWL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Yoane Wissa FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.25 | 0.07 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Paris Maghoma Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Thiago Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Fabio Carvalho Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mads Roerslev Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |