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Atlético Bucaramanga v Atlético Junior — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 4 October 2026 · COL-Primera A · 2627

COL-Primera A results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Atlético Bucaramanga win
49.8%
model 46.0%
Draw
28.2%
model 29.0%
Atlético Junior win
22.0%
model 25.0%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.7%
  2. 1-0 11.5%
  3. 0-0 10.0%
  4. 2-0 9.1%
  5. 2-1 9.0%

Goals

Over 2.543.7% Under 2.556.3%
BTTS yes49.1% BTTS no50.9%
Atlético Bucaramanga 1+76.1% Atlético Bucaramanga 2+41.9%
Atlético Junior 1+62.9% Atlético Junior 2+26.1%

Expected goals 1.43 – 0.99. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
2-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 68%
69.2% fair odds 1.45
moderate signal · 2188 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Atlético Bucaramanga or draw (1UP)
Double chance 1UP
84.4% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 498 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Atlético Bucaramanga.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Atlético Bucaramanga have an estimated 49.8% win probability, against 28.2% for the draw and 22.0% for Atlético Junior. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.43 for Atlético Bucaramanga and 0.99 for Atlético Junior.

Why Atlético Bucaramanga

Nothing in the data singles out Atlético Bucaramanga.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.2%. Draws run at 29% in this competition.

Why Atlético Junior can win

Nothing in the data singles out Atlético Junior.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Atlético Bucaramanga, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Atlético Junior, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Atlético Bucaramanga: 50% possession, 10.8 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Atlético Junior: 53% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Atlético Bucaramanga are the model's most likely outcome at 49.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.7%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.43–0.99 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.35–0.98 1-1 14% 41% 47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga to win 44.1% 43.0% 45.9% 0.94× 2.32
Draw 30.0% 27.9% 29.5% 0.95× 3.59
Atlético Junior to win 26.0% 27.9% 24.8% 1.13× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga & not both score 26.6% 25.2% 27.1% 0.93× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 19.0% 17.9% 18.8% 0.95× 5.58
Atlético Bucaramanga & both teams score 17.4% 17.9% 18.9% 0.95× 5.58
Atlético Junior & not both score 15.0% 17.9% 13.5% 1.33× 5.59
Draw & not both score 11.0% 13.3% 10.8% 1.22× 7.55
Atlético Junior & both teams score 11.0% 13.3% 11.4% 1.16× 7.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga & under 3.5 33.5% 30.9% 35.7% 0.86× 3.24
Atlético Bucaramanga & over 1.5 32.1% 30.8% 33.9% 0.91× 3.24
Draw & under 2.5 25.0% 26.0% 23.8% 1.09× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 25.0% 26.0% 23.8% 1.09× 3.84
Atlético Bucaramanga & over 2.5 23.2% 21.6% 25.6% 0.85× 4.62
Atlético Bucaramanga & under 2.5 20.9% 21.6% 20.4% 1.06× 4.62
Atlético Junior & under 3.5 20.9% 21.6% 19.9% 1.09× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 19.0% 18.0% 18.8% 0.96× 5.56
Atlético Junior & over 1.5 17.6% 18.0% 16.4% 1.10× 5.56
Atlético Junior & over 2.5 13.0% 12.9% 12.8% 1.01× 7.77
Atlético Junior & under 2.5 13.0% 12.9% 12.1% 1.06× 7.77
Atlético Bucaramanga & under 1.5 12.0% 12.9% 12.1% 1.06× 7.77
Atlético Bucaramanga & over 3.5 10.5% 12.9% 10.3% 1.25× 7.77
Draw & under 1.5 11.0% 12.9% 10.8% 1.19× 7.77
Atlético Junior & under 1.5 8.4% 7.9% 8.5% 0.93× 12.70
Atlético Junior & over 3.5 5.1% 7.9% 5.0% 1.57× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 4.9% 4.8% 5.8% 0.82× 20.92
Draw & over 3.5 4.9% 4.8% 5.8% 0.82× 20.92
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga (1UP) 58.1% 58.2% 1.72
Atlético Junior (1UP) 42.0% 39.1% 2.56
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga (2UP) 44.1% 47.8% 2.09
Atlético Junior (2UP) 26.0% 24.9% 4.01
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 39.6% 36.4% 2.75
Atlético Bucaramanga to win 2nd half 35.7% 36.2% 2.76
Atlético Junior to win 2nd half 24.7% 23.1% 4.33
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior (+2.5) 92.2% 92.1% 91.8% 1.00× 1.09
Atlético Junior (+1.5) 78.7% 78.5% 79.6% 0.99× 1.27
Atlético Bucaramanga (+0.5) 74.0% 73.7% 75.2% 0.98× 1.36
Atlético Junior (+0.5) 55.9% 57.0% 54.1% 1.05× 1.75
Atlético Bucaramanga (-0.5) 44.1% 43.0% 45.9% 0.94× 2.33
Atlético Junior (-0.5) 26.0% 26.3% 24.8% 1.06× 3.80
Atlético Bucaramanga (-1.5) 21.3% 21.5% 20.4% 1.05× 4.64
Atlético Bucaramanga (-2.5) 7.8% 7.9% 8.2% 0.96× 12.64
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior to concede 74.0% 76.5% 75.8% 1.01× 1.31
Atlético Junior clean sheet 26.0% 23.5% 24.2% 0.97× 4.26
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior clean sheet in 1st half 56.0% 57.8% 1.73
Atlético Junior to concede in 1st half 44.0% 42.2% 2.37
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior under 6.5 corners 90.5% 90.0% 1.11
Atlético Junior under 5.5 corners 83.3% 81.5% 1.23
Atlético Junior under 4.5 corners 72.3% 71.5% 1.40
Atlético Junior over 2.5 corners 61.4% 61.8% 1.62
Atlético Junior under 3.5 corners 57.1% 57.1% 1.75
Atlético Junior over 3.5 corners 42.9% 42.9% 2.33
Atlético Junior under 2.5 corners 38.6% 38.2% 2.62
Atlético Junior over 4.5 corners 27.7% 28.5% 3.52
Atlético Junior over 5.5 corners 16.7% 18.5% 5.39
Atlético Junior over 6.5 corners 9.5% 10.0% 10.05
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior under 3.5 goals 98.2% 97.6% 98.1% 0.99× 1.03
Atlético Junior under 2.5 goals 92.4% 92.3% 92.9% 0.99× 1.08
Atlético Junior under 1.5 goals 74.4% 72.0% 74.4% 0.97× 1.39
Atlético Junior over 0.5 goals 62.4% 62.9% 62.2% 1.01× 1.59
Atlético Junior under 0.5 goals 37.6% 37.1% 37.8% 0.98× 2.70
Atlético Junior over 1.5 goals 25.6% 28.0% 25.6% 1.10× 3.57
Atlético Junior over 2.5 goals 7.6% 7.7% 7.1% 1.08× 13.07
Atlético Junior over 3.5 goals 1.8% 2.4% 1.9% 1.26× 40.89
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior under 1.5 in 1st half 94.1% 94.2% 1.06
Atlético Junior under 0.5 in 1st half 67.6% 68.3% 1.47
Atlético Junior over 0.5 in 1st half 32.4% 31.7% 3.15
Atlético Junior over 1.5 in 1st half 5.9% 5.8% 17.21
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga (away no bet) 59.5% 57.6% 60.9% 0.95× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 40.5% 42.4% 39.1% 1.08× 2.36
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior even goals 57.1% 56.9% 57.4% 0.99× 1.76
Atlético Junior odd goals 42.9% 43.1% 42.6% 1.01× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 90.0% 91.9% 1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals 10.0% 8.1% 12.37
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 55.3% 59.5% 1.68
Both halves under 1.5 goals 44.7% 40.5% 2.47
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 47.8% 45.9% 2.18
Atlético Bucaramanga to score 2+ in a row 32.5% 28.8% 3.48
Atlético Junior to score 2+ in a row 19.3% 16.5% 6.08
Either team to score 3+ in a row 15.1% 16.4% 6.11
Atlético Bucaramanga to score 3+ in a row 10.7% 12.1% 8.30
Atlético Junior to score 3+ in a row 4.5% 2.7% 37.67
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga corners (+3.5) 93.2% 89.6% 1.12
Atlético Bucaramanga corners (+2.5) 88.6% 84.5% 1.18
Atlético Bucaramanga corners (+1.5) 82.1% 79.7% 1.25
Atlético Junior corners (+3.5) 69.8% 65.8% 1.52
Atlético Junior corners (+2.5) 59.7% 57.2% 1.75
Atlético Bucaramanga corners (-1.5) 51.5% 52.5% 1.91
Atlético Junior corners (+1.5) 48.5% 47.5% 2.10
Atlético Bucaramanga corners (-2.5) 40.3% 42.8% 2.33
Atlético Bucaramanga corners (-3.5) 30.2% 34.2% 2.92
Atlético Junior corners (-1.5) 17.9% 20.3% 4.93
Atlético Junior corners (-2.5) 11.4% 15.5% 6.46
Atlético Junior corners (-3.5) 6.8% 10.4% 9.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 52.6% 45.2% 2.21
9-11 corners 26.7% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 20.7% 25.6% 3.91
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 85.2% 83.0% 1.21
Under 11.5 corners 79.3% 76.5% 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 71.9% 72.7% 1.38
Under 9.5 corners 62.9% 63.4% 1.58
Over 7.5 corners 58.4% 57.7% 1.73
Under 8.5 corners 52.6% 53.3% 1.88
Over 8.5 corners 47.4% 46.7% 2.14
Under 7.5 corners 41.6% 42.3% 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 37.1% 36.6% 2.73
Over 10.5 corners 28.1% 27.3% 3.66
Over 11.5 corners 20.7% 23.5% 4.26
Over 12.5 corners 14.8% 17.0% 5.87
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 14.1% 11.5% 13.1% 0.88× 8.73
1-0 12.0% 11.4% 12.1% 0.95× 8.74
0-0 11.0% 11.4% 10.8% 1.06× 8.74
0-1 8.4% 7.4% 8.5% 0.88× 13.47
2-0 8.9% 7.4% 8.5% 0.88× 13.47
2-1 8.7% 7.4% 11.0% 0.68× 13.47
1-2 6.3% 7.4% 7.0% 1.07× 13.47
0-2 4.7% 1.7% 3.8% 0.46× 58.50
0-3 1.5% 1.7% 1.1% 1.54× 58.52
0-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.6% 3.07× 58.52
1-3 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% 1.23× 58.51
1-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.7% 2.46× 58.52
2-2 4.2% 1.7% 5.1% 0.33× 58.50
2-3 1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.52
2-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 12.29× 58.52
3-0 4.0% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.50
3-1 3.9% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.50
3-2 1.9% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.51
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.05× 58.52
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 6.14× 58.52
4-0 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.02× 58.52
4-1 1.3% 1.7% 0.7% 2.46× 58.52
4-2 0.6% 1.7% 0.7% 2.46× 58.52
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 3.07× 58.52
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 12.29× 58.52
Any other score 1.6% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.52
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga leading at HT (DNB) 62.1% 65.9% 1.52
Atlético Junior leading at HT (DNB) 37.9% 34.1% 2.93
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga or draw (1X) 74.0% 72.2% 75.2% 0.96× 1.39
Atlético Bucaramanga or Atlético Junior (12) 70.0% 72.1% 70.5% 1.02× 1.39
Atlético Junior or draw (X2) 55.9% 57.0% 54.1% 1.05× 1.76
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga or draw at HT 80.1% 84.2% 1.19
Atlético Junior or draw at HT 67.3% 66.3% 1.51
Atlético Bucaramanga or Atlético Junior at HT 52.6% 47.6% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga or draw (1UP) 74.0% 80.1% 1.25
Atlético Junior or draw (1UP) 55.9% 62.6% 1.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga or draw in 2nd half 75.3% 76.9% 1.30
Atlético Junior or draw in 2nd half 64.3% 63.8% 1.57
Atlético Bucaramanga or Atlético Junior in 2nd half 60.4% 63.6% 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 67.0% 69.5% 1.44
Neither half drawn 33.0% 30.5% 3.28
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga (DNB) 62.9% 62.8% 65.0% 0.97× 1.59
Atlético Junior (DNB) 37.1% 37.2% 35.0% 1.06× 2.69
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga to score first 51.6% 53.8% 1.86
Atlético Junior to score first 37.4% 32.7% 3.06
No goal scored 11.0% 9.7% 10.29
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 52.6% 51.4% 51.2% 1.01× 1.94
Both teams to score 47.4% 48.6% 48.8% 0.99× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 44.8% 41.6% 43.1% 0.97× 2.40
Both score & over 2.5 33.3% 34.3% 35.9% 0.96× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 14.1% 12.3% 13.1% 0.94× 8.12
Not both score & over 2.5 7.8% 8.4% 8.2% 1.02× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 90.0% 89.1% 88.7% 1.00× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 10.0% 10.9% 11.3% 0.97× 9.16
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 75.8% 75.4% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 24.2% 24.6% 4.07
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 64.7% 67.0% 1.49
Both score 2nd half only 20.8% 20.9% 4.79
Both score 1st half only 11.1% 10.5% 9.50
Both score in both halves 3.4% 4.9% 20.41
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.6% 85.6% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 14.4% 14.4% 6.94
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 53.3% 53.4% 1.87
A goal in each half 46.7% 46.6% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.1% 47.4% 48.1% 0.99× 2.11
0-1 goals 31.3% 30.8% 31.2% 0.99× 3.25
4-6 goals 19.6% 20.2% 19.5% 1.04× 4.95
7+ goals 1.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.19× 55.16
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior to score exactly 0 37.6% 36.0% 37.8% 0.95× 2.78
Atlético Junior to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.0% 36.7% 0.98× 2.78
Atlético Junior to score exactly 2 18.0% 19.5% 18.6% 1.05× 5.12
Atlético Junior to score 3+ 7.6% 8.5% 7.1% 1.19× 11.81
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga to score exactly 1 35.0% 35.6% 34.4% 1.04× 2.81
Atlético Bucaramanga to score exactly 0 26.0% 26.5% 24.2% 1.10× 3.77
Atlético Bucaramanga to score exactly 2 23.6% 23.3% 26.1% 0.89× 4.30
Atlético Bucaramanga to score 3+ 15.4% 18.9% 15.6% 1.21× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.4% 52.4% 1.91
Atlético Bucaramanga leading at HT 32.7% 33.7% 2.97
Atlético Junior leading at HT 19.9% 15.8% 6.33
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga -1: 2 55.9% 56.6% 1.77
Atlético Bucaramanga -1: X 22.8% 23.6% 4.24
Atlético Bucaramanga -1: 1 21.3% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior (0:1) 55.9% 55.8% 54.1% 1.03× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 22.8% 24.3% 25.6% 0.95× 4.12
Atlético Bucaramanga (0:1) 21.3% 24.3% 20.4% 1.19× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior (0:2) 78.7% 79.5% 79.6% 1.00× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.5% 11.0% 12.4% 0.89× 9.10
Atlético Bucaramanga (0:2) 7.8% 7.7% 8.2% 0.94× 12.95
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior (0:3) 92.2% 92.6% 91.8% 1.01× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.5% 5.8% 5.4% 1.07× 17.21
Atlético Bucaramanga (0:3) 2.3% 2.4% 2.9% 0.81× 42.11
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior (0:4) 97.7% 98.1% 97.1% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.7% 1.2% 1.9% 0.62× 83.41
Atlético Bucaramanga (0:4) 0.6% 1.2% 1.1% 1.08× 83.55
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga (1:0) 74.0% 72.6% 75.2% 0.96× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 16.2% 17.0% 17.2% 0.99× 5.87
Atlético Junior (1:0) 9.8% 6.9% 7.7% 0.91× 14.43
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga (2:0) 90.2% 93.9% 92.4% 1.02× 1.07
Draw (2:0) 7.1% 6.4% 5.0% 1.29× 15.53
Atlético Junior (2:0) 2.7% 2.3% 2.8% 0.81× 44.34
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 44.6% 48.0% 2.09
Halves equal 29.3% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 26.1% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga to concede 62.4% 63.4% 62.2% 1.02× 1.58
Atlético Bucaramanga clean sheet 37.6% 36.6% 37.8% 0.97× 2.73
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga clean sheet in 1st half 67.6% 68.6% 1.46
Atlético Bucaramanga to concede in 1st half 32.4% 31.4% 3.18
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga over 2.5 corners 81.9% 80.9% 1.24
Atlético Bucaramanga under 6.5 corners 70.8% 71.9% 1.39
Atlético Bucaramanga over 3.5 corners 68.5% 66.7% 1.50
Atlético Bucaramanga under 5.5 corners 59.3% 57.5% 1.74
Atlético Bucaramanga over 4.5 corners 54.2% 52.8% 1.90
Atlético Bucaramanga under 4.5 corners 45.8% 47.2% 2.12
Atlético Bucaramanga over 5.5 corners 40.7% 42.5% 2.35
Atlético Bucaramanga under 3.5 corners 31.5% 33.3% 3.00
Atlético Bucaramanga over 6.5 corners 29.2% 28.1% 3.56
Atlético Bucaramanga under 2.5 corners 18.1% 19.1% 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga under 3.5 goals 95.2% 96.3% 95.3% 1.01× 1.04
Atlético Bucaramanga under 2.5 goals 84.6% 82.1% 84.4% 0.97× 1.22
Atlético Bucaramanga over 0.5 goals 74.0% 74.2% 75.8% 0.98× 1.35
Atlético Bucaramanga under 1.5 goals 61.0% 63.4% 58.4% 1.09× 1.58
Atlético Bucaramanga over 1.5 goals 39.0% 36.6% 41.6% 0.88× 2.73
Atlético Bucaramanga under 0.5 goals 26.0% 25.8% 24.2% 1.07× 3.88
Atlético Bucaramanga over 2.5 goals 15.4% 17.9% 15.6% 1.15× 5.60
Atlético Bucaramanga over 3.5 goals 4.8% 3.7% 4.7% 0.77× 27.37
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga under 1.5 in 1st half 88.5% 90.0% 1.11
Atlético Bucaramanga under 0.5 in 1st half 56.0% 57.4% 1.74
Atlético Bucaramanga over 0.5 in 1st half 44.0% 42.6% 2.35
Atlético Bucaramanga over 1.5 in 1st half 11.5% 10.0% 9.96
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 53.5% 51.6% 54.4% 0.95× 1.94
Atlético Junior (home no bet) 46.5% 48.4% 45.6% 1.06× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga even goals 53.4% 50.6% 53.4% 0.95× 1.98
Atlético Bucaramanga odd goals 46.6% 49.4% 46.6% 1.06× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 38.1% 38.5% 2.60
HT 1-0 21.8% 24.2% 4.14
HT 0-1 14.6% 11.0% 9.09
HT 1-1 8.8% 7.1% 14.15
HT 2-0 6.4% 7.0% 14.19
HT 0-2 2.9% 2.3% 43.85
Any other HT score 2.8% 2.3% 43.86
HT 2-1 2.5% 2.3% 43.88
HT 1-2 1.7% 2.3% 43.94
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.3% 44.03
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga at HT / Atlético Bucaramanga at FT 25.8% 26.6% 3.76
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 20.0% 21.7% 4.62
Draw at HT / Atlético Bucaramanga at FT 16.3% 16.8% 5.95
Atlético Junior at HT / Atlético Junior at FT 13.3% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Atlético Junior at FT 11.1% 12.6% 7.91
Atlético Bucaramanga at HT / Draw at FT 5.3% 6.0% 16.64
Atlético Junior at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% 28.81
Atlético Junior at HT / Atlético Bucaramanga at FT 2.0% 3.5% 28.91
Atlético Bucaramanga at HT / Atlético Junior at FT 1.6% 3.5% 28.93
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga to score last 51.7% 51.8% 1.93
Atlético Junior to score last 37.3% 38.1% 2.62
No goal scored 11.0% 9.1% 10.98
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 89.0% 90.9% 1.10
Atlético Bucaramanga to lead by 1 at any time 58.1% 55.2% 1.81
Atlético Junior to lead by 1 at any time 42.0% 39.2% 2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 40.2% 39.1% 2.56
Atlético Bucaramanga to lead by 2 at any time 26.4% 25.3% 3.96
Atlético Junior to lead by 2 at any time 13.9% 10.4% 9.58
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 12.9% 10.4% 9.60
Atlético Bucaramanga to lead by 3 at any time 9.3% 6.6% 15.14
Atlético Junior to lead by 3 at any time 3.6% 1.6% 62.90
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga most corners 62.9% 60.5% 1.65
Atlético Junior most corners 26.7% 31.0% 3.23
Corners level 10.5% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.9% 87.4% 85.7% 1.02× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.4% 83.5% 80.0% 1.04× 1.20
1-3 goals 68.4% 69.0% 68.4% 1.01× 1.45
2-6 goals 67.7% 69.0% 67.5% 1.02× 1.45
2-5 goals 65.6% 69.0% 65.4% 1.06× 1.45
2-4 goals 60.0% 63.4% 59.7% 1.06× 1.58
2-3 goals 48.1% 48.7% 48.1% 1.01× 2.06
1-2 goals 48.0% 48.7% 45.3% 1.07× 2.06
3-6 goals 40.1% 43.6% 42.6% 1.02× 2.30
3-5 goals 37.9% 39.2% 40.5% 0.97× 2.55
3-4 goals 32.4% 35.4% 34.8% 1.02× 2.83
4-6 goals 19.6% 18.6% 19.5% 0.96× 5.37
4-5 goals 17.5% 18.6% 17.4% 1.07× 5.37
5-6 goals 7.7% 8.7% 7.9% 1.10× 11.43
7+ goals 1.0% 2.5% 1.5% 1.66× 39.48
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Bucaramanga never behind 47.0% 56.6% 1.77
Atlético Junior never behind 30.9% 35.7% 2.80
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.1% 50.8% 50.3% 1.01× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.9% 49.2% 49.7% 0.99× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.6% 57.6% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 42.4% 42.4% 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.1% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 45.9% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.9% 95.5% 96.4% 0.99× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 91.3% 92.3% 90.7% 1.02× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 89.0% 87.7% 89.2% 0.98× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 79.4% 77.4% 79.1% 0.98× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 68.7% 66.2% 68.8% 0.96× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 58.9% 58.8% 56.1% 1.05× 1.70
Over 2.5 goals 41.1% 41.2% 44.0% 0.94× 2.43
Under 1.5 goals 31.3% 33.8% 31.2% 1.08× 2.96
Over 3.5 goals 20.6% 22.6% 20.9% 1.08× 4.42
Under 0.5 goals 11.0% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.10
Over 4.5 goals 8.7% 7.7% 9.3% 0.83× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 3.1% 4.5% 3.6% 1.24× 22.24
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.0% 97.3% 98.4% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.7% 97.2% 96.2% 1.01× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 90.1% 92.5% 89.5% 1.03× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 74.1% 72.6% 72.9% 1.00× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 56.8% 55.5% 58.5% 0.95× 1.80
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 43.2% 44.5% 41.5% 1.07× 2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 25.9% 27.4% 27.1% 1.01× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 9.9% 7.5% 10.5% 0.72× 13.25
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.3% 2.8% 3.8% 0.72× 36.32
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.0% 2.7% 1.6% 1.76× 36.39
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.5% 92.8% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 74.4% 71.0% 1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half 61.9% 63.6% 1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half 38.1% 36.4% 2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half 25.6% 29.0% 3.44
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.5% 7.2% 13.87
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 84.4% 83.0% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 73.8% 77.8% 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 60.3% 62.0% 1.61
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 39.7% 38.0% 2.63
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 26.2% 22.2% 4.50
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 15.6% 17.0% 5.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior not to score in both halves 85.6% 85.9% 1.16
Atlético Bucaramanga not to score in both halves 76.4% 78.2% 1.28
Atlético Bucaramanga to score in both halves 23.6% 21.8% 4.59
Atlético Junior to score in both halves 14.4% 14.1% 7.09
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 47.4% 50.4% 48.8% 1.03× 1.98
Only Atlético Bucaramanga scores 26.6% 26.1% 27.1% 0.96× 3.83
Only Atlético Junior scores 15.0% 16.1% 13.5% 1.19× 6.22
Neither team scores 11.0% 10.9% 10.8% 1.01× 9.15
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.6% 25.0% 25.0% 1.00× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 20.3% 22.6% 20.4% 1.11× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 20.5% 22.6% 23.2% 0.97× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 11.9% 12.1% 11.7% 1.03× 8.29
Exactly 0 goals 11.0% 12.1% 10.8% 1.11× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 5.5% 7.6% 5.8% 1.31× 13.10
6 or more goals 3.1% 4.4% 3.6% 1.22× 22.69
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 39.7% 40.4% 2.47
1 goal in 2nd half 34.1% 33.7% 2.97
No goals in 2nd half 26.2% 29.8% 3.36
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior not to win both halves 95.0% 94.0% 1.06
Atlético Bucaramanga not to win both halves 88.1% 88.0% 1.14
Atlético Bucaramanga to win both halves 11.9% 12.0% 8.36
Atlético Junior to win both halves 5.0% 6.0% 16.78
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior to win neither half 60.4% 65.1% 1.54
Atlético Bucaramanga to win either half 56.5% 59.4% 1.68
Atlético Bucaramanga to win neither half 43.5% 40.6% 2.46
Atlético Junior to win either half 39.6% 34.9% 2.87
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Junior not to win to nil 85.0% 83.0% 86.5% 0.96× 1.20
Atlético Bucaramanga not to win to nil 73.4% 75.3% 72.9% 1.03× 1.33
Atlético Bucaramanga to win to nil 26.6% 24.7% 27.1% 0.91× 4.05
Atlético Junior to win to nil 15.0% 17.0% 13.5% 1.26× 5.90
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 30.0% 27.8% 29.5% 0.94× 3.59
Atlético Bucaramanga by 1 22.8% 24.2% 25.6% 0.94× 4.14
Atlético Junior by 1 16.2% 16.9% 17.2% 0.98× 5.90
Atlético Bucaramanga by 2 13.5% 11.8% 12.4% 0.95× 8.47
Atlético Bucaramanga by 3+ 7.8% 7.2% 8.2% 0.88× 13.80
Atlético Junior by 2 7.1% 7.2% 5.0% 1.45× 13.80
Atlético Junior by 3+ 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 0.97× 37.05
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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