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Atlético de San Luis v Atlas — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · MEX-Liga MX · 2627

MEX-Liga MX results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Atlético de San Luis win
41.1%
model 42.7%
Draw
27.3%
model 26.8%
Atlas win
31.6%
model 30.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.6%
  2. 2-1 9.1%
  3. 1-0 8.0%
  4. 1-2 7.5%
  5. 2-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.554.4% Under 2.545.6%
BTTS yes58.4% BTTS no41.6%
Atlético de San Luis 1+79.1% Atlético de San Luis 2+46.4%
Atlas 1+72.5% Atlas 2+37.0%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.29. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
37/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Atlético de San Luis.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Atlético de San Luis have an estimated 41.1% win probability, against 31.6% for Atlas and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.56 for Atlético de San Luis and 1.29 for Atlas.

Why Atlético de San Luis

Nothing in the data singles out Atlético de San Luis.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. Draws run at 24% in this competition.

Why Atlas can win

Atlas carry the stronger rating, 1494 Elo against 1434. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Atlético de San Luis, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Atlas, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Atlético de San Luis: 54% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Atlas: 49% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 17.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Atlético de San Luis are the model's most likely outcome at 41.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%. Confidence 37/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.62–1.32 1-1 12% 56% 60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis to win 43.5% 43.0% 47.1% 0.91× 2.32
Atlas to win 30.2% 30.4% 29.3% 1.04× 3.29
Draw 26.3% 27.9% 23.8% 1.17× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis & both teams score 23.0% 21.9% 24.5% 0.89× 4.57
Atlético de San Luis & not both score 20.5% 21.9% 22.7% 0.96× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 20.0% 17.9% 17.4% 1.03× 5.58
Atlas & both teams score 16.7% 17.9% 17.8% 1.01× 5.58
Atlas & not both score 13.5% 13.3% 11.7% 1.13× 7.54
Draw & not both score 6.3% 8.4% 6.6% 1.28× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis & over 1.5 35.9% 34.9% 37.3% 0.94× 2.87
Atlético de San Luis & over 2.5 28.9% 26.0% 30.4% 0.86× 3.84
Atlético de San Luis & under 3.5 27.5% 26.0% 30.9% 0.84× 3.84
Atlas & over 1.5 24.2% 21.6% 23.4% 0.92× 4.62
Atlas & under 3.5 20.1% 21.6% 19.7% 1.10× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 20.0% 18.0% 17.4% 1.03× 5.56
Atlas & over 2.5 19.6% 18.0% 19.9% 0.90× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 18.6% 18.0% 17.9% 1.00× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.6% 18.0% 17.9% 1.00× 5.56
Atlético de San Luis & over 3.5 16.0% 18.0% 16.3% 1.10× 5.56
Atlético de San Luis & under 2.5 14.6% 12.9% 16.9% 0.76× 7.77
Atlas & under 2.5 10.6% 12.9% 9.6% 1.34× 7.77
Atlas & over 3.5 10.1% 12.9% 9.8% 1.32× 7.77
Atlético de San Luis & under 1.5 7.6% 7.9% 9.9% 0.79× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 7.7% 7.9% 6.0% 1.30× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 7.7% 7.9% 6.0% 1.30× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 6.3% 7.9% 6.6% 1.20× 12.70
Atlas & under 1.5 6.0% 7.9% 6.0% 1.30× 12.70
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis (1UP) 60.7% 63.0% 1.59
Atlas (1UP) 49.3% 43.5% 2.30
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis (2UP) 43.5% 47.7% 2.10
Atlas (2UP) 30.2% 31.0% 3.23
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis to win 2nd half 36.4% 36.3% 2.76
2nd half drawn 34.5% 34.3% 2.92
Atlas to win 2nd half 29.1% 26.4% 3.79
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas (+2.5) 90.6% 92.1% 90.9% 1.01× 1.09
Atlas (+1.5) 77.2% 78.5% 77.1% 1.02× 1.28
Atlético de San Luis (+0.5) 69.8% 68.7% 70.7% 0.97× 1.46
Atlas (+0.5) 56.5% 57.0% 52.9% 1.08× 1.75
Atlético de San Luis (-0.5) 43.5% 43.0% 47.1% 0.91× 2.33
Atlas (-0.5) 30.2% 31.3% 29.3% 1.07× 3.20
Atlético de San Luis (-1.5) 22.8% 21.5% 22.9% 0.94× 4.64
Atlético de San Luis (-2.5) 9.4% 7.9% 9.1% 0.87× 12.62
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas to concede 80.2% 81.3% 81.9% 0.99× 1.23
Atlas clean sheet 19.9% 18.7% 18.1% 1.03× 5.35
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas clean sheet in 1st half 49.9% 50.6% 1.97
Atlas to concede in 1st half 50.1% 49.4% 2.03
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas under 6.5 corners 88.1% 85.2% 1.17
Atlas under 5.5 corners 79.9% 75.9% 1.32
Atlas under 4.5 corners 67.9% 67.5% 1.48
Atlas over 2.5 corners 66.0% 67.5% 1.48
Atlas under 3.5 corners 52.1% 53.1% 1.88
Atlas over 3.5 corners 47.9% 46.9% 2.13
Atlas under 2.5 corners 34.0% 32.5% 3.08
Atlas over 4.5 corners 32.1% 32.5% 3.08
Atlas over 5.5 corners 20.1% 24.1% 4.16
Atlas over 6.5 corners 11.9% 14.8% 6.75
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas under 3.5 goals 95.5% 97.5% 95.9% 1.02× 1.03
Atlas under 2.5 goals 85.3% 87.9% 86.7% 1.01× 1.14
Atlas over 0.5 goals 73.2% 71.9% 70.9% 1.02× 1.39
Atlas under 1.5 goals 62.1% 62.9% 64.8% 0.97× 1.59
Atlas over 1.5 goals 37.9% 37.1% 35.2% 1.05× 2.70
Atlas under 0.5 goals 26.8% 28.1% 29.1% 0.96× 3.57
Atlas over 2.5 goals 14.7% 12.1% 13.3% 0.91× 8.25
Atlas over 3.5 goals 4.5% 2.5% 4.1% 0.60× 40.74
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas under 1.5 in 1st half 90.2% 94.0% 1.06
Atlas under 0.5 in 1st half 59.1% 62.6% 1.60
Atlas over 0.5 in 1st half 40.9% 37.4% 2.67
Atlas over 1.5 in 1st half 9.8% 6.0% 16.78
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis (away no bet) 62.3% 62.1% 66.4% 0.94× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 37.7% 37.9% 33.6% 1.13× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas even goals 53.6% 52.8% 54.4% 0.97× 1.89
Atlas odd goals 46.4% 47.2% 45.6% 1.03× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 82.4% 83.0% 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 17.6% 17.0% 5.89
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 68.4% 68.5% 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 31.6% 31.5% 3.18
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 59.4% 55.4% 1.81
Atlético de San Luis to score 2+ in a row 38.8% 36.6% 2.73
Atlas to score 2+ in a row 28.3% 25.2% 3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row 21.9% 19.5% 5.13
Atlético de San Luis to score 3+ in a row 14.1% 12.2% 8.23
Atlas to score 3+ in a row 8.2% 5.7% 17.69
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis corners (+3.5) 92.2% 89.6% 1.12
Atlético de San Luis corners (+2.5) 87.4% 84.5% 1.18
Atlético de San Luis corners (+1.5) 80.5% 79.7% 1.25
Atlas corners (+3.5) 70.7% 70.7% 1.41
Atlas corners (+2.5) 60.9% 61.9% 1.62
Atlético de San Luis corners (-1.5) 50.1% 52.5% 1.91
Atlas corners (+1.5) 49.9% 47.5% 2.10
Atlético de San Luis corners (-2.5) 39.1% 38.1% 2.63
Atlético de San Luis corners (-3.5) 29.3% 29.3% 3.41
Atlas corners (-1.5) 19.5% 20.3% 4.93
Atlas corners (-2.5) 12.6% 15.5% 6.45
Atlas corners (-3.5) 7.8% 10.4% 9.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 48.1% 41.7% 2.40
9-11 corners 28.0% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 23.9% 25.6% 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 82.7% 80.8% 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 76.1% 76.5% 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 68.1% 67.7% 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 62.8% 63.4% 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 58.6% 57.7% 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 51.9% 53.3% 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 48.1% 46.7% 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 41.4% 42.3% 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 37.2% 36.6% 2.73
Over 10.5 corners 31.9% 32.3% 3.09
Over 11.5 corners 23.9% 23.5% 4.25
Over 12.5 corners 17.3% 19.2% 5.20
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.3% 11.4% 11.5% 0.99× 8.74
2-1 9.2% 7.4% 10.7% 0.70× 13.47
1-0 7.6% 7.4% 9.9% 0.75× 13.47
1-2 7.5% 7.4% 8.9% 0.84× 13.47
2-0 7.0% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.47
0-0 6.3% 7.4% 6.6% 1.13× 13.47
0-1 6.0% 7.4% 6.0% 1.23× 13.47
2-2 6.0% 7.4% 4.6% 1.61× 13.47
3-1 4.9% 1.7% 5.7% 0.30× 58.50
0-2 4.6% 1.7% 3.7% 0.46× 58.50
0-3 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.51
0-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 1.92× 58.52
1-3 3.3% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.51
1-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.92× 58.52
2-3 2.6% 1.7% 3.7% 0.46× 58.51
2-4 0.9% 1.7% 1.2% 1.37× 58.52
3-0 3.8% 1.7% 3.7% 0.46× 58.50
3-2 3.2% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.51
3-3 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.20× 58.52
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.92× 58.52
4-0 1.5% 1.7% 1.2% 1.37× 58.52
4-1 2.0% 1.7% 2.1% 0.80× 58.51
4-2 1.3% 1.7% 1.4% 1.20× 58.52
4-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.7% 2.41× 58.52
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 4.81× 58.52
Any other score 3.5% 1.7% 3.2% 0.53× 58.50
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis leading at HT (DNB) 59.1% 57.6% 1.74
Atlas leading at HT (DNB) 40.9% 42.4% 2.36
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis or Atlas (12) 73.7% 72.1% 76.2% 0.95× 1.39
Atlético de San Luis or draw (1X) 69.8% 69.6% 70.7% 0.99× 1.44
Atlas or draw (X2) 56.5% 57.0% 52.9% 1.08× 1.76
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis or draw at HT 76.1% 79.8% 1.25
Atlas or draw at HT 65.5% 66.3% 1.51
Atlético de San Luis or Atlas at HT 58.4% 56.6% 1.77
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis or draw (1UP) 69.8% 75.9% 1.32
Atlas or draw (1UP) 56.5% 62.7% 1.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis or draw in 2nd half 70.9% 73.6% 1.36
Atlético de San Luis or Atlas in 2nd half 65.5% 65.7% 1.52
Atlas or draw in 2nd half 63.6% 63.7% 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 60.7% 61.6% 1.62
Neither half drawn 39.3% 38.4% 2.61
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis (DNB) 59.0% 58.3% 61.6% 0.95× 1.72
Atlas (DNB) 41.0% 41.7% 38.4% 1.09× 2.40
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis to score first 51.7% 53.8% 1.86
Atlas to score first 42.0% 41.8% 2.39
No goal scored 6.3% 7.5% 13.41
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 59.6% 54.9% 59.3% 0.92× 1.82
Not both teams to score 40.4% 45.1% 40.7% 1.11× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 47.3% 44.3% 48.0% 0.92× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 31.5% 34.3% 32.7% 1.05× 2.92
Both score & under 2.5 12.3% 12.3% 11.5% 1.07× 8.12
Not both score & over 2.5 8.8% 8.4% 8.2% 1.02× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 81.8% 83.1% 82.6% 1.01× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 18.2% 16.9% 17.4% 0.97× 5.90
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 66.8% 67.7% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 33.2% 32.3% 3.09
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 52.9% 56.0% 1.79
Both score 2nd half only 26.5% 26.2% 3.81
Both score 1st half only 13.9% 10.6% 9.46
Both score in both halves 6.7% 6.7% 14.82
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 79.3% 81.4% 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 20.7% 18.6% 5.37
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 58.3% 57.5% 1.74
A half without a goal 41.7% 42.5% 2.35
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.3% 47.4% 46.2% 1.03× 2.11
4-6 goals 30.8% 30.7% 29.1% 1.06× 3.25
0-1 goals 20.0% 20.2% 22.2% 0.91× 4.95
7+ goals 3.0% 1.8% 2.8% 0.64× 54.94
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas to score exactly 1 35.3% 36.0% 35.9% 1.00× 2.78
Atlas to score exactly 0 26.8% 27.4% 29.1% 0.94× 3.65
Atlas to score exactly 2 23.2% 22.4% 22.0% 1.02× 4.46
Atlas to score 3+ 14.7% 12.8% 13.3% 0.96× 7.80
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis to score exactly 1 32.1% 32.7% 33.4% 0.98× 3.06
Atlético de San Luis to score exactly 2 26.0% 26.5% 26.6% 0.99× 3.77
Atlético de San Luis to score 3+ 22.1% 23.3% 22.2% 1.05× 4.30
Atlético de San Luis to score exactly 0 19.9% 18.9% 18.1% 1.04× 5.29
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 41.6% 43.4% 2.31
Atlético de San Luis leading at HT 34.5% 33.7% 2.97
Atlas leading at HT 23.9% 20.2% 4.96
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis -1: 2 56.5% 56.7% 1.77
Atlético de San Luis -1: 1 22.8% 23.6% 4.24
Atlético de San Luis -1: X 20.7% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas (0:1) 56.5% 55.8% 52.9% 1.05× 1.79
Atlético de San Luis (0:1) 22.8% 24.3% 22.9% 1.06× 4.12
Draw (0:1) 20.7% 24.3% 24.3% 1.00× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas (0:2) 77.2% 79.4% 77.1% 1.03× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.4% 11.0% 14.0% 0.78× 9.10
Atlético de San Luis (0:2) 9.4% 7.7% 9.1% 0.85× 12.94
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas (0:3) 90.6% 92.6% 90.9% 1.02× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 6.2% 5.8% 6.0% 0.96× 17.20
Atlético de San Luis (0:3) 3.2% 2.4% 3.2% 0.74× 42.07
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas (0:4) 96.8% 98.1% 96.8% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.3% 1.2% 1.8% 0.68× 83.34
Atlético de San Luis (0:4) 0.9% 1.2% 1.6% 0.75× 83.51
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis (1:0) 69.8% 69.9% 70.7% 0.99× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 16.6% 17.0% 19.0% 0.90× 5.87
Atlas (1:0) 13.6% 12.8% 10.5% 1.22× 7.80
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis (2:0) 86.4% 88.4% 89.5% 0.99× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.9% 6.4% 7.3% 0.89× 15.51
Atlas (2:0) 4.7% 2.3% 3.4% 0.67× 44.21
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.0% 48.1% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 26.7% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 25.3% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis to concede 73.2% 73.1% 70.9% 1.03× 1.37
Atlético de San Luis clean sheet 26.8% 26.9% 29.1% 0.92× 3.71
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis clean sheet in 1st half 59.1% 62.6% 1.60
Atlético de San Luis to concede in 1st half 40.9% 37.4% 2.67
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis over 2.5 corners 83.3% 80.9% 1.24
Atlético de San Luis over 3.5 corners 70.4% 71.9% 1.39
Atlético de San Luis under 6.5 corners 69.3% 66.7% 1.50
Atlético de San Luis under 5.5 corners 57.4% 57.5% 1.74
Atlético de San Luis over 4.5 corners 56.2% 57.5% 1.74
Atlético de San Luis under 4.5 corners 43.8% 42.5% 2.35
Atlético de San Luis over 5.5 corners 42.6% 42.5% 2.35
Atlético de San Luis over 6.5 corners 30.7% 33.3% 3.00
Atlético de San Luis under 3.5 corners 29.6% 28.1% 3.56
Atlético de San Luis under 2.5 corners 16.7% 19.1% 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis under 3.5 goals 91.9% 92.3% 92.4% 1.00× 1.08
Atlético de San Luis over 0.5 goals 80.2% 82.1% 81.9% 1.00× 1.22
Atlético de San Luis under 2.5 goals 77.9% 77.7% 77.8% 1.00× 1.29
Atlético de San Luis under 1.5 goals 51.9% 53.2% 51.3% 1.04× 1.88
Atlético de San Luis over 1.5 goals 48.1% 46.8% 48.7% 0.96× 2.14
Atlético de San Luis over 2.5 goals 22.1% 22.3% 22.2% 1.00× 4.49
Atlético de San Luis under 0.5 goals 19.9% 17.9% 18.1% 0.99× 5.59
Atlético de San Luis over 3.5 goals 8.1% 7.7% 7.6% 1.01× 12.92
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis under 1.5 in 1st half 84.6% 84.6% 1.18
Atlético de San Luis under 0.5 in 1st half 49.9% 50.7% 1.97
Atlético de San Luis over 0.5 in 1st half 50.1% 49.3% 2.03
Atlético de San Luis over 1.5 in 1st half 15.4% 15.4% 6.50
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas (home no bet) 53.5% 51.6% 55.2% 0.94× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 46.5% 48.4% 44.8% 1.08× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis even goals 52.0% 50.6% 49.9% 1.01× 1.98
Atlético de San Luis odd goals 48.0% 49.4% 50.1% 0.99× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 29.6% 29.1% 3.43
HT 1-0 20.3% 24.2% 4.14
HT 0-1 15.3% 18.7% 5.34
HT 1-1 11.0% 11.0% 9.12
HT 2-0 7.1% 7.1% 14.18
Any other HT score 4.9% 2.3% 43.70
HT 0-2 4.1% 2.3% 43.76
HT 2-1 3.8% 2.3% 43.79
HT 1-2 2.8% 2.3% 43.86
HT 2-2 1.0% 2.3% 44.00
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis at HT / Atlético de San Luis at FT 26.3% 26.6% 3.76
Atlas at HT / Atlas at FT 16.2% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.5% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Atlético de San Luis at FT 14.6% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Atlas at FT 11.6% 12.7% 7.91
Atlético de San Luis at HT / Draw at FT 5.8% 6.0% 16.63
Atlas at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 6.0% 16.65
Atlas at HT / Atlético de San Luis at FT 2.6% 3.5% 28.89
Atlético de San Luis at HT / Atlas at FT 2.5% 3.5% 28.89
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis to score last 51.7% 51.8% 1.93
Atlas to score last 42.0% 40.3% 2.48
No goal scored 6.3% 7.5% 13.41
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.7% 92.6% 1.08
Atlético de San Luis to lead by 1 at any time 60.7% 61.2% 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 49.4% 44.1% 2.27
Atlas to lead by 1 at any time 49.3% 44.1% 2.27
Atlético de San Luis to lead by 2 at any time 29.9% 25.4% 3.94
Atlas to lead by 2 at any time 19.8% 15.0% 6.66
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 18.3% 15.0% 6.67
Atlético de San Luis to lead by 3 at any time 11.9% 10.4% 9.62
Atlas to lead by 3 at any time 6.4% 6.5% 15.28
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis most corners 61.2% 60.4% 1.66
Atlas most corners 28.3% 31.0% 3.22
Corners level 10.4% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.0% 87.4% 86.5% 1.01× 1.14
2-6 goals 77.0% 78.6% 75.1% 1.05× 1.27
1-4 goals 76.3% 78.6% 75.8% 1.04× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.3% 72.4% 70.9% 1.02× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.7% 63.4% 60.2% 1.05× 1.58
1-3 goals 59.9% 59.2% 61.8% 0.96× 1.69
3-6 goals 53.1% 53.2% 53.3% 1.00× 1.88
3-5 goals 48.4% 48.7% 49.0% 0.99× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.3% 48.7% 46.2% 1.05× 2.06
3-4 goals 38.8% 39.2% 38.4% 1.02× 2.55
1-2 goals 37.5% 39.2% 37.7% 1.04× 2.55
4-6 goals 30.8% 35.4% 29.1% 1.21× 2.83
4-5 goals 26.0% 30.2% 24.9% 1.22× 3.31
5-6 goals 14.3% 14.9% 15.1% 0.99× 6.72
7+ goals 3.0% 2.5% 2.8% 0.89× 39.38
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis never behind 44.4% 48.3% 2.07
Atlas never behind 33.0% 35.8% 2.79
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.9% 50.8% 52.6% 0.97× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.1% 49.2% 47.4% 1.04× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.7% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 45.3% 48.4% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.3% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.7% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 93.7% 92.3% 93.4% 0.99× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 92.3% 92.3% 92.9% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 82.6% 82.4% 82.2% 1.00× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 80.0% 82.4% 77.8% 1.06× 1.21
Under 3.5 goals 66.2% 66.2% 68.2% 0.97× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 56.2% 58.8% 56.0% 1.05× 1.70
Under 2.5 goals 43.8% 41.2% 44.1% 0.94× 2.43
Over 3.5 goals 33.8% 33.8% 31.8% 1.06× 2.96
Under 1.5 goals 20.0% 17.6% 22.2% 0.79× 5.67
Over 4.5 goals 17.4% 17.6% 17.8% 0.99× 5.67
Over 5.5 goals 7.7% 7.7% 7.1% 1.09× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 6.3% 7.7% 6.6% 1.18× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.8% 97.2% 97.0% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 91.5% 92.5% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 79.2% 75.9% 79.3% 0.96× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 73.8% 72.6% 71.6% 1.01× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 56.5% 55.5% 58.1% 0.96× 1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 43.5% 44.5% 41.9% 1.06× 2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 26.2% 27.4% 28.4% 0.96× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 20.8% 24.1% 20.7% 1.16× 4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 8.5% 7.5% 8.0% 0.95× 13.26
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.2% 2.8% 3.0% 0.93× 36.33
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 87.5% 89.1% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 70.4% 70.8% 1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half 65.3% 69.1% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 34.7% 30.9% 3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half 29.6% 29.2% 3.43
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.5% 10.9% 9.14
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 81.6% 82.9% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 75.4% 79.9% 1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 51.4% 53.4% 1.87
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 48.6% 46.6% 2.15
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 24.6% 20.1% 4.97
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 18.4% 17.1% 5.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas not to score in both halves 77.7% 78.3% 1.28
Atlético de San Luis not to score in both halves 69.8% 70.4% 1.42
Atlético de San Luis to score in both halves 30.2% 29.6% 3.37
Atlas to score in both halves 22.3% 21.7% 4.60
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 59.6% 58.4% 59.3% 0.98× 1.71
Only Atlético de San Luis scores 20.5% 22.3% 22.7% 0.98× 4.48
Only Atlas scores 13.5% 10.9% 11.7% 0.93× 9.13
Neither team scores 6.3% 7.2% 6.6% 1.09× 13.92
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.9% 22.6% 22.0% 1.03× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 24.3% 0.93× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 16.4% 17.4% 14.2% 1.23× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 13.6% 12.1% 15.8% 0.76× 8.28
Exactly 5 goals 9.6% 7.6% 10.8% 0.71× 13.09
6 or more goals 7.7% 7.6% 7.1% 1.08× 13.09
Exactly 0 goals 6.3% 7.6% 6.6% 1.16× 13.10
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 51.4% 51.6% 1.94
1 goal in 2nd half 30.2% 33.6% 2.98
No goals in 2nd half 18.4% 17.1% 5.85
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas not to win both halves 92.9% 94.0% 1.06
Atlético de San Luis not to win both halves 87.2% 88.0% 1.14
Atlético de San Luis to win both halves 12.8% 12.0% 8.33
Atlas to win both halves 7.1% 6.0% 16.63
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético de San Luis to win either half 58.2% 59.5% 1.68
Atlas to win neither half 54.1% 55.0% 1.82
Atlas to win either half 45.9% 45.0% 2.23
Atlético de San Luis to win neither half 41.8% 40.5% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlas not to win to nil 86.5% 88.2% 88.3% 1.00× 1.13
Atlético de San Luis not to win to nil 79.5% 78.1% 77.3% 1.01× 1.28
Atlético de San Luis to win to nil 20.5% 22.0% 22.7% 0.97× 4.56
Atlas to win to nil 13.5% 11.8% 11.7% 1.01× 8.47
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.3% 27.8% 23.8% 1.17× 3.60
Atlético de San Luis by 1 20.7% 24.1% 24.3% 0.99× 4.14
Atlas by 1 16.6% 16.9% 19.0% 0.89× 5.90
Atlético de San Luis by 2 13.4% 11.8% 14.0% 0.84× 8.47
Atlético de San Luis by 3+ 9.4% 7.3% 9.1% 0.80× 13.79
Atlas by 2 8.9% 7.3% 7.3% 1.00× 13.79
Atlas by 3+ 4.7% 2.7% 3.4% 0.80× 36.99
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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