Atlético-MG v Chapecoense — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Atlético-MG

15:00

Chapecoense

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 323h before kick-off

Atlético-MG win

67.8%

model 67.6%

Draw

21.8%

model 20.1%

Chapecoense win

10.4%

model 12.4%

682210

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (147 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 11.0%
2-1 9.7%
1-1 9.5%
1-0 8.9%
3-0 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	60.8%	Under 2.5	39.2%
BTTS yes	53.4%	BTTS no	46.6%
Atlético-MG 1+	89.6%	Atlético-MG 2+	66.0%
Chapecoense 1+	58.7%	Chapecoense 2+	22.2%

Expected goals 2.26 – 0.88. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Atlético-MG over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 46%

69.2% fair odds 1.45

strong signal · 809 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Chapecoense not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Atlético-MG carry the stronger rating, 1575 Elo against 1360.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Atlético-MG have an estimated 67.8% win probability, against 21.8% for the draw and 10.4% for Chapecoense. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.26 for Atlético-MG and 0.88 for Chapecoense.

Why Atlético-MG

Atlético-MG carry the stronger rating, 1575 Elo against 1360. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.8%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Chapecoense can win

Nothing in the data singles out Chapecoense.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Atlético-MG, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Chapecoense, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Atlético-MG: 50% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Chapecoense: 41% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Atlético-MG are the model's most likely outcome at 67.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11.0%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	682012	2.26–0.88	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	701911	2.27–0.80	2-0 12%	59%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to win	69.8%	65.2%	48.9%	1.33×	1.53
Draw	19.5%	19.4%	27.2%	0.71×	5.17
Chapecoense to win	10.8%	13.3%	24.0%	0.55×	7.53

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG & not both score	39.5%	33.2%	28.0%	1.19×	3.01
Atlético-MG & both teams score	30.2%	29.7%	21.0%	1.41×	3.37
Draw & both teams score	14.0%	13.3%	20.7%	0.64×	7.55
Chapecoense & both teams score	5.9%	8.4%	10.4%	0.81×	11.95
Draw & not both score	5.5%	8.4%	6.7%	1.25×	11.95
Chapecoense & not both score	4.8%	4.9%	13.9%	0.35×	20.46

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG & over 1.5	60.0%	54.6%	36.8%	1.49×	1.83
Atlético-MG & over 2.5	48.1%	45.3%	27.5%	1.64×	2.21
Atlético-MG & under 3.5	40.3%	40.3%	36.8%	1.09×	2.48
Atlético-MG & over 3.5	29.4%	26.0%	12.3%	2.12×	3.84
Atlético-MG & under 2.5	21.7%	21.6%	21.5%	1.01×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	14.8%	12.9%	20.2%	0.64×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	14.8%	12.9%	20.2%	0.64×	7.77
Draw & over 1.5	14.0%	12.9%	20.7%	0.62×	7.77
Atlético-MG & under 1.5	9.7%	7.9%	12.3%	0.64×	12.69
Chapecoense & over 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	17.2%	0.46×	12.69
Chapecoense & under 3.5	8.1%	7.9%	18.6%	0.42×	12.69
Chapecoense & over 2.5	6.4%	7.9%	13.2%	0.60×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	6.7%	1.18×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	4.7%	4.8%	7.2%	0.67×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	4.7%	4.8%	7.2%	0.67×	20.93
Chapecoense & under 2.5	4.3%	4.8%	11.0%	0.43×	20.93
Chapecoense & under 1.5	2.9%	4.8%	7.0%	0.68×	20.94
Chapecoense & over 3.5	2.7%	4.8%	5.6%	0.86×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (1UP)	79.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Chapecoense (1UP)	27.8%	26.9%	—	—	3.72

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (2UP)	69.8%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Chapecoense (2UP)	10.8%	13.2%	—	—	7.57

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to win 2nd half	56.7%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
2nd half drawn	29.9%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
Chapecoense to win 2nd half	13.4%	12.1%	—	—	8.26

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (+0.5)	89.2%	88.5%	76.0%	1.17×	1.13
Chapecoense (+2.5)	74.0%	73.7%	90.8%	0.81×	1.36
Atlético-MG (-0.5)	69.8%	68.7%	48.9%	1.41×	1.46
Chapecoense (+1.5)	52.9%	52.3%	76.8%	0.68×	1.91
Atlético-MG (-1.5)	47.1%	47.7%	23.2%	2.05×	2.10
Chapecoense (+0.5)	30.2%	31.3%	51.1%	0.61×	3.20
Atlético-MG (-2.5)	26.0%	26.3%	9.2%	2.85×	3.80
Chapecoense (-0.5)	10.8%	11.5%	24.0%	0.48×	8.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense to concede	89.7%	86.5%	79.6%	1.09×	1.16
Chapecoense clean sheet	10.3%	13.5%	20.4%	0.66×	7.43

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense to concede in 1st half	62.3%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Chapecoense clean sheet in 1st half	37.7%	35.2%	—	—	2.84

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense under 6.5 corners	93.5%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Chapecoense under 5.5 corners	87.8%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Chapecoense under 4.5 corners	78.5%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Chapecoense under 3.5 corners	64.5%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Chapecoense over 2.5 corners	54.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Chapecoense under 2.5 corners	45.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Chapecoense over 3.5 corners	35.5%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Chapecoense over 4.5 corners	21.5%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
Chapecoense over 5.5 corners	12.2%	15.1%	—	—	6.63
Chapecoense over 6.5 corners	6.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.31

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense under 3.5 goals	99.1%	97.6%	97.9%	1.00×	1.03
Chapecoense under 2.5 goals	95.3%	97.6%	90.9%	1.07×	1.03
Chapecoense under 1.5 goals	81.0%	81.5%	72.0%	1.13×	1.23
Chapecoense over 0.5 goals	55.0%	53.7%	65.4%	0.82×	1.86
Chapecoense under 0.5 goals	45.0%	46.3%	34.6%	1.34×	2.16
Chapecoense over 1.5 goals	19.0%	18.5%	28.0%	0.66×	5.40
Chapecoense over 2.5 goals	4.7%	2.4%	9.1%	0.27×	40.94
Chapecoense over 3.5 goals	0.9%	2.4%	2.1%	1.17×	41.15

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense under 1.5 in 1st half	95.9%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Chapecoense under 0.5 in 1st half	72.7%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Chapecoense over 0.5 in 1st half	27.3%	30.6%	—	—	3.27
Chapecoense over 1.5 in 1st half	4.1%	4.4%	—	—	22.83

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (away no bet)	78.2%	73.7%	64.2%	1.15×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	21.8%	26.3%	35.8%	0.73×	3.80

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense even goals	60.1%	59.0%	54.9%	1.07×	1.69
Chapecoense odd goals	39.9%	41.0%	45.1%	0.91×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.4%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.6%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.8%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	66.6%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Atlético-MG to score 2+ in a row	59.8%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Either team to score 3+ in a row	32.9%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Atlético-MG to score 3+ in a row	31.1%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Chapecoense to score 2+ in a row	11.8%	12.0%	—	—	8.35
Chapecoense to score 3+ in a row	2.0%	2.6%	—	—	38.90

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG corners (+3.5)	94.6%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Atlético-MG corners (+2.5)	90.5%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Atlético-MG corners (+1.5)	84.4%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Chapecoense corners (+3.5)	68.8%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Chapecoense corners (+2.5)	58.2%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Atlético-MG corners (-1.5)	53.5%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Chapecoense corners (+1.5)	46.5%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Atlético-MG corners (-2.5)	41.8%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Atlético-MG corners (-3.5)	31.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Chapecoense corners (-1.5)	15.6%	20.0%	—	—	5.01
Chapecoense corners (-2.5)	9.5%	11.4%	—	—	8.80
Chapecoense corners (-3.5)	5.4%	11.3%	—	—	8.83

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	59.3%	48.0%	—	—	2.08
9-11 corners	24.4%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
12+ corners	16.3%	21.6%	—	—	4.62

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.7%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	83.7%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Under 10.5 corners	77.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	69.1%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Under 8.5 corners	59.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	51.6%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Under 7.5 corners	48.4%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 8.5 corners	40.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	30.9%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 10.5 corners	22.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.28
Over 11.5 corners	16.3%	20.1%	—	—	4.96
Over 12.5 corners	11.3%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	12.0%	11.5%	9.4%	1.22×	8.73
1-0	9.7%	7.4%	12.3%	0.61×	13.46
1-1	9.3%	7.4%	13.7%	0.54×	13.46
2-1	9.6%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.46
3-0	9.1%	7.4%	4.8%	1.56×	13.46
3-1	7.2%	7.4%	4.0%	1.87×	13.46
Any other score	8.1%	7.4%	2.5%	2.92×	13.46
0-0	5.5%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.46
4-0	5.1%	7.4%	1.1%	6.66×	13.46
0-1	2.9%	1.7%	7.0%	0.24×	58.58
0-2	1.5%	1.7%	4.1%	0.41×	58.58
0-3	0.4%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.59
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.59
1-2	3.4%	1.7%	6.2%	0.27×	58.57
1-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.59
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.36×	58.59
2-2	3.8%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.57
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.59
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.36×	58.59
3-2	2.9%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.58
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.59
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	10.72×	58.59
4-1	4.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.57
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.58
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.36×	58.59
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.72×	58.59

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG leading at HT (DNB)	81.4%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Chapecoense leading at HT (DNB)	18.6%	13.9%	—	—	7.22

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG or draw (1X)	89.2%	86.7%	76.0%	1.14×	1.15
Atlético-MG or Chapecoense (12)	80.5%	80.6%	72.8%	1.11×	1.24
Chapecoense or draw (X2)	30.2%	34.8%	51.1%	0.68×	2.88

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG or draw at HT	88.2%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Atlético-MG or Chapecoense at HT	63.1%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Chapecoense or draw at HT	48.7%	52.7%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG or draw (1UP)	89.2%	92.0%	—	—	1.09
Chapecoense or draw (1UP)	30.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.62

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG or draw in 2nd half	86.6%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Atlético-MG or Chapecoense in 2nd half	70.1%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Chapecoense or draw in 2nd half	43.3%	40.0%	—	—	2.50

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	54.8%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Neither half drawn	45.2%	49.7%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (DNB)	86.6%	87.4%	67.0%	1.30×	1.14
Chapecoense (DNB)	13.4%	12.6%	33.0%	0.38×	7.96

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to score first	69.9%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Chapecoense to score first	24.6%	23.3%	—	—	4.29
No goal scored	5.5%	7.3%	—	—	13.65

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.1%	51.4%	51.8%	0.99×	1.94
Not both teams to score	49.9%	48.6%	48.2%	1.01×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.9%	41.5%	38.2%	1.09×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	31.6%	34.4%	38.9%	0.88×	2.91
Not both score & over 2.5	18.3%	21.8%	9.6%	2.28×	4.59
Both score & under 2.5	9.3%	8.4%	13.7%	0.61×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.4%	85.7%	87.3%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.6%	14.3%	12.7%	1.12×	6.98

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.1%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.9%	25.5%	—	—	3.92

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.6%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	23.2%	21.2%	—	—	4.73
Both score 1st half only	12.5%	10.5%	—	—	9.54
Both score in both halves	4.7%	5.0%	—	—	19.96

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.8%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	17.2%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.7%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
A half without a goal	39.3%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.2%	47.4%	49.8%	0.95×	2.11
4-6 goals	33.1%	30.7%	24.2%	1.27×	3.26
0-1 goals	18.1%	20.2%	25.6%	0.79×	4.94
7+ goals	3.7%	1.8%	0.6%	2.85×	55.05

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense to score exactly 0	45.0%	42.9%	34.6%	1.24×	2.33
Chapecoense to score exactly 1	35.9%	36.0%	37.6%	0.96×	2.78
Chapecoense to score exactly 2	14.3%	12.8%	19.1%	0.67×	7.80
Chapecoense to score 3+	4.7%	4.5%	9.1%	0.50×	22.15

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to score 3+	39.5%	35.6%	18.5%	1.93×	2.81
Atlético-MG to score exactly 2	26.6%	26.5%	27.2%	0.97×	3.77
Atlético-MG to score exactly 1	23.5%	23.3%	34.2%	0.68×	4.30
Atlético-MG to score exactly 0	10.3%	14.3%	20.4%	0.70×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG leading at HT	51.3%	47.3%	—	—	2.11
Draw at HT	36.9%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Chapecoense leading at HT	11.8%	11.7%	—	—	8.56

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG -1: 1	47.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Atlético-MG -1: 2	30.2%	30.0%	—	—	3.34
Atlético-MG -1: X	22.6%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (0:1)	47.1%	45.9%	23.2%	1.97×	2.18
Chapecoense (0:1)	30.2%	29.9%	51.1%	0.58×	3.35
Draw (0:1)	22.6%	24.3%	25.8%	0.94×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense (0:2)	52.9%	58.3%	76.8%	0.76×	1.72
Atlético-MG (0:2)	26.0%	23.8%	9.2%	2.57×	4.21
Draw (0:2)	21.1%	20.3%	14.2%	1.43×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense (0:3)	74.0%	77.9%	90.8%	0.86×	1.28
Draw (0:3)	14.0%	10.1%	6.7%	1.50×	9.95
Atlético-MG (0:3)	12.0%	10.0%	2.7%	3.70×	9.98

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense (0:4)	88.0%	91.9%	97.3%	0.94×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	7.3%	4.6%	1.8%	2.64×	21.62
Atlético-MG (0:4)	4.7%	1.2%	1.1%	1.08×	82.92

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (1:0)	89.2%	86.4%	76.0%	1.14×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	7.4%	6.9%	14.7%	0.47×	14.48
Chapecoense (1:0)	3.3%	3.2%	9.6%	0.33×	31.55

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (2:0)	96.7%	96.9%	90.4%	1.07×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.6%	2.3%	6.2%	0.36×	44.25
Chapecoense (2:0)	0.7%	2.3%	3.5%	0.64×	44.37

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.9%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
1st half highest scoring	27.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	24.6%	24.3%	—	—	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to concede	55.0%	53.2%	65.4%	0.81×	1.88
Atlético-MG clean sheet	45.0%	46.8%	34.6%	1.35×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG clean sheet in 1st half	72.7%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Atlético-MG to concede in 1st half	27.3%	31.4%	—	—	3.19

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG over 2.5 corners	79.6%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Atlético-MG under 6.5 corners	73.2%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Atlético-MG over 3.5 corners	65.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Atlético-MG under 5.5 corners	62.1%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Atlético-MG over 4.5 corners	51.1%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Atlético-MG under 4.5 corners	48.9%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Atlético-MG over 5.5 corners	37.9%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Atlético-MG under 3.5 corners	34.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Atlético-MG over 6.5 corners	26.8%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Atlético-MG under 2.5 corners	20.4%	23.9%	—	—	4.19

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG over 0.5 goals	89.7%	87.2%	79.6%	1.10×	1.15
Atlético-MG under 3.5 goals	80.6%	82.1%	94.3%	0.87×	1.22
Atlético-MG over 1.5 goals	66.2%	67.9%	45.5%	1.49×	1.47
Atlético-MG under 2.5 goals	60.5%	63.4%	81.5%	0.78×	1.58
Atlético-MG over 2.5 goals	39.5%	36.6%	18.5%	1.98×	2.73
Atlético-MG under 1.5 goals	33.8%	32.1%	54.5%	0.59×	3.12
Atlético-MG over 3.5 goals	19.4%	17.9%	5.7%	3.12×	5.60
Atlético-MG under 0.5 goals	10.3%	12.8%	20.4%	0.63×	7.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG under 1.5 in 1st half	74.5%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Atlético-MG over 0.5 in 1st half	62.3%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Atlético-MG under 0.5 in 1st half	37.7%	35.4%	—	—	2.82
Atlético-MG over 1.5 in 1st half	25.5%	20.4%	—	—	4.90

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	64.4%	60.2%	53.1%	1.13×	1.66
Chapecoense (home no bet)	35.6%	39.8%	46.9%	0.85×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG even goals	50.5%	50.6%	51.8%	0.98×	1.98
Atlético-MG odd goals	49.5%	49.4%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.5%	28.7%	—	—	3.49
HT 1-0	26.6%	28.6%	—	—	3.49
HT 2-0	13.0%	11.1%	—	—	9.04
HT 0-1	8.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
HT 1-1	8.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
Any other HT score	8.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.09
HT 2-1	4.2%	2.2%	—	—	44.61
HT 0-2	1.4%	2.2%	—	—	44.83
HT 1-2	1.4%	2.2%	—	—	44.83
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.2%	—	—	44.89

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG at HT / Atlético-MG at FT	46.4%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
Draw at HT / Atlético-MG at FT	20.4%	22.1%	—	—	4.53
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Chapecoense at HT / Chapecoense at FT	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.64
Draw at HT / Chapecoense at FT	4.5%	3.4%	—	—	29.10
Atlético-MG at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.12
Chapecoense at HT / Draw at FT	3.5%	3.4%	—	—	29.14
Chapecoense at HT / Atlético-MG at FT	3.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.17
Atlético-MG at HT / Chapecoense at FT	0.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.25

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to score last	70.1%	72.0%	—	—	1.39
Chapecoense to score last	24.4%	26.8%	—	—	3.74
No goal scored	5.5%	7.3%	—	—	13.65

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.5%	92.8%	—	—	1.08
Atlético-MG to lead by 1 at any time	79.7%	78.9%	—	—	1.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	59.4%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Atlético-MG to lead by 2 at any time	53.1%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	30.3%	29.4%	—	—	3.41
Atlético-MG to lead by 3 at any time	29.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.96
Chapecoense to lead by 1 at any time	27.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Chapecoense to lead by 2 at any time	6.6%	6.5%	—	—	15.37
Chapecoense to lead by 3 at any time	1.3%	1.5%	—	—	64.71

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG most corners	65.2%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Chapecoense most corners	24.2%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Corners level	10.6%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.4%	87.4%	88.9%	0.98×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.3%	78.6%	73.9%	1.06×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.9%	72.4%	81.8%	0.88×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.9%	72.4%	69.9%	1.04×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.3%	63.5%	62.9%	1.01×	1.58
1-3 goals	57.7%	59.2%	68.8%	0.86×	1.69
3-6 goals	55.5%	59.2%	47.1%	1.26×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.1%	53.1%	43.2%	1.23×	1.88
2-3 goals	45.2%	48.7%	49.8%	0.98×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.6%	39.2%	36.1%	1.08×	2.55
1-2 goals	35.3%	39.2%	45.9%	0.85×	2.55
4-6 goals	33.1%	35.4%	24.2%	1.46×	2.83
4-5 goals	27.7%	30.2%	20.2%	1.49×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.9%	18.6%	11.1%	1.67×	5.38
7+ goals	3.7%	2.5%	0.6%	3.98×	39.41

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG never behind	66.7%	70.2%	—	—	1.43
Chapecoense never behind	14.8%	13.3%	—	—	7.51

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.2%	50.8%	49.2%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.8%	49.2%	50.8%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.0%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.0%	48.4%	—	—	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.5%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.0%	92.3%	95.4%	0.97×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.9%	82.4%	74.4%	1.11×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	80.4%	82.3%	88.4%	0.93×	1.21
Under 3.5 goals	63.3%	61.8%	75.3%	0.82×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.1%	58.8%	47.6%	1.24×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	40.9%	41.2%	52.4%	0.79×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	36.7%	38.2%	24.7%	1.55×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	19.6%	17.7%	11.6%	1.52×	5.67
Under 1.5 goals	18.1%	17.6%	25.6%	0.69×	5.67
Over 5.5 goals	9.0%	7.7%	4.6%	1.67×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	5.5%	7.7%	6.7%	1.15×	12.96

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.1%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.9%	86.8%	95.0%	0.91×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	76.6%	75.9%	65.0%	1.17×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.4%	75.9%	86.6%	0.88×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.6%	51.8%	68.0%	0.76×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.4%	48.2%	32.0%	1.51×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.6%	24.1%	13.4%	1.80×	4.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.4%	24.1%	35.0%	0.69×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.1%	13.3%	5.0%	2.67×	7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.9%	2.8%	0.7%	4.15×	36.33

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.8%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.5%	71.1%	—	—	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.7%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.3%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.5%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.30

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.7%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.8%	78.0%	—	—	1.28
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.2%	22.0%	—	—	4.54
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.3%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense not to score in both halves	89.6%	86.1%	—	—	1.16
Atlético-MG not to score in both halves	54.8%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Atlético-MG to score in both halves	45.2%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Chapecoense to score in both halves	10.4%	13.9%	—	—	7.17

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	50.1%	53.9%	51.8%	1.04×	1.85
Only Atlético-MG scores	39.5%	39.9%	28.0%	1.42×	2.51
Neither team scores	5.5%	7.2%	6.7%	1.07×	13.96
Only Chapecoense scores	4.8%	4.6%	13.9%	0.33×	21.68

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.8%	22.6%	26.9%	0.84×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.2%	17.5%	13.2%	1.32×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.6%	12.1%	19.1%	0.63×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	10.5%	12.1%	7.2%	1.68×	8.29
6 or more goals	9.0%	7.6%	4.6%	1.65×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	5.5%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.14

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.2%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	29.5%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
No goals in 2nd half	17.3%	16.9%	—	—	5.92

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense not to win both halves	98.4%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Atlético-MG not to win both halves	70.7%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
Atlético-MG to win both halves	29.3%	27.6%	—	—	3.63
Chapecoense to win both halves	1.6%	2.8%	—	—	36.08

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to win either half	78.7%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Chapecoense to win neither half	76.4%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Chapecoense to win either half	23.6%	20.3%	—	—	4.92
Atlético-MG to win neither half	21.3%	20.1%	—	—	4.98

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense not to win to nil	95.2%	96.1%	86.1%	1.12×	1.04
Atlético-MG not to win to nil	60.5%	66.7%	72.0%	0.93×	1.50
Atlético-MG to win to nil	39.5%	33.3%	28.0%	1.19×	3.01
Chapecoense to win to nil	4.8%	3.9%	13.9%	0.28×	25.56

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG by 3+	26.0%	27.8%	9.2%	3.01×	3.59
Atlético-MG by 1	22.6%	24.1%	25.8%	0.94×	4.14
Atlético-MG by 2	21.1%	24.1%	14.2%	1.70×	4.14
Draw	19.5%	16.9%	27.2%	0.62×	5.90
Chapecoense by 1	7.4%	7.2%	14.7%	0.49×	13.80
Chapecoense by 2	2.6%	2.7%	6.2%	0.44×	36.99
Chapecoense by 3+	0.7%	2.7%	3.5%	0.77×	37.05