Augsburg v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 30 August 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 20
On target
3 – 10
Shots in box
7 – 16
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.11
Goals − xG
+1.49 – -0.41
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Augsburg win
10.2%
Draw
19.4%
Bayern Munich win
70.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Augsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDWDWWLW last 10
scored 17
from 23.1 xG
conceded 18
from 20.1 xG
Bayern Munich are finishing above their chances — 3.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWWDWWW last 10
scored 35
from 32.0 xG
conceded 13
from 17.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.76–2.25 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.78–2.24 | 0-2 12% | 58% | 49% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Augsburg 0.51 xGBayern Munich 3.41 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Augsburg attacking right
Bayern Munich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 3' |
 Augsburg |
Marius Wolf | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mert Kömür |
| 4' |
Augsburg |
Han-Noah Massengo | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 18' |
Augsburg |
Han-Noah Massengo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 27' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Goal | Harry Kane |
| 32' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 39' |
Bayern Munich |
Josip Stanisic | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 47' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Harry Kane |
| 48' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Konrad Laimer |
| 50' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 51' |
Augsburg |
Robin Fellhauer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elias Saad |
| 52' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Robin Fellhauer |
| 55' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 57' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 68' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Elvis Rexhbecaj |
| 75' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kristijan Jakic |
| 76' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Bayern Munich |
Sacha Boey | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Bayern Munich |
Dayotchanculle Upamecano | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 89' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kristijan Jakic |
| 93' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 93' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 101' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 102' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Raphael Guerreiro |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mert Kömür FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.04 | 0.35 |
| Kristijan Jakic MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Robin Fellhauer AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Elias Saad AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj Sub | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Marius Wolf DMR | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Anton Kade Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Phillip Tietz Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Noahkai Banks Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1.08 | 0.17 | 2.44 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.07 | 0.03 | 1.64 |
| Serge Gnabry AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.07 | 0.49 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Josip Stanisic DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Harry Kane FW | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 1.24 | 1.31 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1.60 |
| Konrad Laimer DR | 75 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.58 | 1.16 |
| Leon Goretzka DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| Sacha Boey Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raphael Guerreiro Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.24 |