Auxerre v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
5 – 13
On target
0 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 8
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.23 – 0.81
Goals − xG
-0.80 – -1.46
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Auxerre win
51.0%
Draw
26.0%
Nantes win
23.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.44–0.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.36–0.93 | 1-0 14% | 40% | 45% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Auxerre 0.80 xGNantes 1.46 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Auxerre attacking right
Nantes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Nantes |
Deiver Machado | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Kaba |
| 7' |
Nantes |
Dehmaine Assoumani | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Johann Lepenant |
| 15' |
Nantes |
Ali Youssif | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Dehmaine Assoumani |
| 18' |
 Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.22 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 22' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Auxerre |
Marvin Senaya | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 28' |
Nantes |
Deiver Machado | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matthis Abline |
| 36' |
Nantes |
Dehmaine Assoumani | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Nantes |
Deiver Machado | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Nantes |
Mohamed Kaba | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Deiver Machado |
| 42' |
Nantes |
Dehmaine Assoumani | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Kaba |
| 48' |
Nantes |
Ignatius Ganago | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Mohamed Kaba |
| 60' |
Nantes |
Frederic Guilbert | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Nantes |
Nicolas Cozza | 0.57 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Frederic Guilbert |
| 68' |
Auxerre |
Sékou Mara | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 75' |
Nantes |
Johann Lepenant | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.05 | 0.57 |
| Marvin Senaya DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bryan Okoh DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kévin Danois DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.00 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elisha Owusu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fredrik Oppegård AML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romain Faivre AMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny Namaso AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sékou Mara Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Naouirou Ahamada Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lasso Coulibaly Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Cozza DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Deiver Machado DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| Mohamed Kaba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.62 |
| Ali Youssif DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ignatius Ganago FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Johann Lepenant MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.25 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Frederic Guilbert DR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.57 | 0.00 |
| Matthis Abline ML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Dehmaine Assoumani MR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.09 | 0.40 |
| Francis Coquelin DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabien Centonze Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mostafa Mohamed Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rémy Cabella Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |