AZ Alkmaar v Telstar — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 September 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627
Eredivisie
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (147 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-0 10.4%
- 2-1 9.6%
- 1-1 9.0%
- 3-0 8.2%
- 1-0 7.8%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 64.1% | Under 2.5 | 35.9% |
| BTTS yes | 55.7% | BTTS no | 44.3% |
| AZ Alkmaar 1+ | 90.7% | AZ Alkmaar 2+ | 68.7% |
| Telstar 1+ | 60.3% | Telstar 2+ | 23.7% |
Expected goals 2.38 – 0.93. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger rating, 1667 Elo against 1509.
- Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
AZ Alkmaar have an estimated 69.4% win probability, against 20.1% for the draw and 10.5% for Telstar. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.38 for AZ Alkmaar and 0.93 for Telstar.
Why AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger rating, 1667 Elo against 1509. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 20.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Telstar can win
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for AZ Alkmaar, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Telstar, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
AZ Alkmaar: 57% possession, 19.6 shots a match, 9.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Telstar: 45% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. AZ Alkmaar's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
AZ Alkmaar are the model's most likely outcome at 69.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.4%. Confidence 81/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.38–0.93 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 2.14–1.01 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 57% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar to win | 62.2% | 58.1% | 44.6% | 1.30× | 1.72 |
| Draw | 22.1% | 24.4% | 25.3% | 0.97× | 4.09 |
| Telstar to win | 15.7% | 19.3% | 30.3% | 0.64× | 5.17 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar & not both score | 31.2% | 29.7% | 23.4% | 1.27× | 3.37 |
| AZ Alkmaar & both teams score | 31.0% | 29.7% | 21.3% | 1.39× | 3.37 |
| Draw & both teams score | 16.7% | 17.9% | 21.9% | 0.82× | 5.58 |
| Telstar & both teams score | 9.3% | 8.4% | 17.3% | 0.48× | 11.92 |
| Telstar & not both score | 6.4% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 0.64× | 11.93 |
| Draw & not both score | 5.4% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 2.38× | 11.94 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar & over 1.5 | 54.0% | 48.7% | 36.4% | 1.34× | 2.05 |
| AZ Alkmaar & over 2.5 | 44.2% | 40.3% | 29.1% | 1.39× | 2.48 |
| AZ Alkmaar & under 3.5 | 35.0% | 30.9% | 27.6% | 1.12× | 3.24 |
| AZ Alkmaar & over 3.5 | 27.2% | 26.0% | 17.2% | 1.52× | 3.84 |
| AZ Alkmaar & under 2.5 | 18.0% | 18.0% | 15.6% | 1.15× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 16.7% | 18.0% | 21.9% | 0.82× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 15.7% | 18.0% | 15.0% | 1.20× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 15.7% | 18.0% | 15.0% | 1.20× | 5.56 |
| Telstar & over 1.5 | 12.4% | 12.9% | 26.3% | 0.49× | 7.77 |
| Telstar & under 3.5 | 10.8% | 12.9% | 20.1% | 0.64× | 7.77 |
| Telstar & over 2.5 | 10.3% | 12.9% | 20.5% | 0.63× | 7.77 |
| AZ Alkmaar & under 1.5 | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 0.95× | 12.70 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 0.76× | 12.70 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 0.76× | 12.70 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 5.4% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 2.24× | 12.70 |
| Telstar & under 2.5 | 5.5% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 0.79× | 12.70 |
| Telstar & over 3.5 | 4.9% | 4.8% | 10.4% | 0.46× | 20.92 |
| Telstar & under 1.5 | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 1.16× | 20.93 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar (1UP) | 75.0% | 78.6% | — | — | 1.27 |
| Telstar (1UP) | 35.0% | 33.8% | — | — | 2.96 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar (2UP) | 62.2% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Telstar (2UP) | 15.7% | 17.3% | — | — | 5.77 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar to win 2nd half | 50.8% | 51.9% | — | — | 1.93 |
| 2nd half drawn | 31.2% | 34.2% | — | — | 2.92 |
| Telstar to win 2nd half | 18.0% | 19.2% | — | — | 5.21 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar (+0.5) | 84.3% | 82.4% | 69.7% | 1.18× | 1.21 |
| Telstar (+2.5) | 79.3% | 78.5% | 86.7% | 0.91× | 1.27 |
| AZ Alkmaar (-0.5) | 62.2% | 62.9% | 44.6% | 1.41× | 1.59 |
| Telstar (+1.5) | 60.1% | 62.9% | 74.6% | 0.84× | 1.59 |
| AZ Alkmaar (-1.5) | 39.9% | 37.1% | 25.4% | 1.46× | 2.69 |
| Telstar (+0.5) | 37.8% | 37.1% | 55.4% | 0.67× | 2.69 |
| AZ Alkmaar (-2.5) | 20.7% | 21.5% | 13.3% | 1.62× | 4.64 |
| Telstar (-0.5) | 15.7% | 17.6% | 30.3% | 0.58× | 5.69 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar to concede | 88.2% | 86.5% | 83.5% | 1.04× | 1.16 |
| Telstar clean sheet | 11.8% | 13.5% | 16.5% | 0.82× | 7.39 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar to concede in 1st half | 60.1% | 64.4% | — | — | 1.55 |
| Telstar clean sheet in 1st half | 39.9% | 35.6% | — | — | 2.81 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar under 6.5 corners | 86.7% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Telstar under 5.5 corners | 77.7% | 75.9% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Telstar over 2.5 corners | 69.5% | 67.5% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Telstar under 4.5 corners | 64.9% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Telstar over 3.5 corners | 51.5% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Telstar under 3.5 corners | 48.5% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Telstar over 4.5 corners | 35.1% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Telstar under 2.5 corners | 30.5% | 32.5% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Telstar over 5.5 corners | 22.3% | 24.1% | — | — | 4.16 |
| Telstar over 6.5 corners | 13.3% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.75 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar under 3.5 goals | 98.1% | 97.6% | 94.3% | 1.03× | 1.03 |
| Telstar under 2.5 goals | 91.9% | 92.3% | 85.0% | 1.09× | 1.08 |
| Telstar under 1.5 goals | 73.4% | 72.0% | 58.2% | 1.24× | 1.39 |
| Telstar over 0.5 goals | 63.4% | 62.9% | 73.2% | 0.86× | 1.59 |
| Telstar under 0.5 goals | 36.6% | 37.1% | 26.8% | 1.38× | 2.70 |
| Telstar over 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 28.1% | 41.8% | 0.67× | 3.57 |
| Telstar over 2.5 goals | 8.1% | 7.7% | 15.0% | 0.51× | 13.06 |
| Telstar over 3.5 goals | 1.9% | 2.4% | 5.7% | 0.43× | 40.88 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar under 1.5 in 1st half | 93.8% | 94.2% | — | — | 1.06 |
| Telstar under 0.5 in 1st half | 66.9% | 68.2% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Telstar over 0.5 in 1st half | 33.1% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
| Telstar over 1.5 in 1st half | 6.2% | 5.8% | — | — | 17.18 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar (away no bet) | 73.8% | 68.6% | 63.8% | 1.07× | 1.46 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 26.2% | 31.4% | 36.2% | 0.87× | 3.18 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar even goals | 56.7% | 56.9% | 57.4% | 0.99× | 1.76 |
| Telstar odd goals | 43.3% | 43.1% | 42.6% | 1.01× | 2.32 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 79.3% | 82.5% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 20.7% | 17.5% | — | — | 5.73 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 72.3% | 67.1% | — | — | 1.49 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 32.9% | — | — | 3.04 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 65.6% | 62.0% | — | — | 1.61 |
| AZ Alkmaar to score 2+ in a row | 55.1% | 55.1% | — | — | 1.81 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 29.8% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.97 |
| AZ Alkmaar to score 3+ in a row | 26.5% | 25.1% | — | — | 3.98 |
| Telstar to score 2+ in a row | 17.5% | 16.4% | — | — | 6.09 |
| Telstar to score 3+ in a row | 3.7% | 2.6% | — | — | 38.17 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar corners (+3.5) | 96.6% | 95.8% | — | — | 1.04 |
| AZ Alkmaar corners (+2.5) | 94.3% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| AZ Alkmaar corners (+1.5) | 90.8% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| AZ Alkmaar corners (-1.5) | 71.8% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| AZ Alkmaar corners (-2.5) | 63.0% | 61.9% | — | — | 1.62 |
| AZ Alkmaar corners (-3.5) | 53.7% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Telstar corners (+3.5) | 46.3% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Telstar corners (+2.5) | 37.0% | 38.1% | — | — | 2.63 |
| Telstar corners (+1.5) | 28.2% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.41 |
| Telstar corners (-1.5) | 9.2% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.57 |
| Telstar corners (-2.5) | 5.7% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.59 |
| Telstar corners (-3.5) | 3.4% | 4.2% | — | — | 23.56 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12+ corners | 50.3% | 45.2% | — | — | 2.21 |
| 9-11 corners | 26.6% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
| 0-8 corners | 23.2% | 25.6% | — | — | 3.90 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 corners | 84.1% | 80.8% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 76.8% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 68.4% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 59.4% | 57.7% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 12.5 corners | 58.5% | 57.7% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 50.3% | 53.3% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 49.7% | 46.7% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 41.5% | 42.3% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 40.6% | 42.3% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 31.6% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 23.2% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 15.9% | 19.2% | — | — | 5.20 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.2% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 0.98× | 8.74 |
| 2-0 | 9.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 0.99× | 13.47 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 0.93× | 13.47 |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 0.90× | 13.47 |
| 3-0 | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.73× | 13.47 |
| 3-1 | 7.1% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 2.02× | 13.47 |
| Any other score | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 1.13× | 13.47 |
| 0-0 | 5.4% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 2.11× | 13.47 |
| 1-2 | 4.7% | 1.7% | 8.1% | 0.21× | 58.50 |
| 2-2 | 5.0% | 1.7% | 8.6% | 0.20× | 58.50 |
| 0-1 | 3.3% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 0.41× | 58.51 |
| 0-2 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 6.0% | 0.29× | 58.51 |
| 0-3 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.74× | 58.52 |
| 0-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.86× | 58.52 |
| 1-3 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 0.66× | 58.52 |
| 1-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.80× | 58.52 |
| 2-3 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 0.70× | 58.51 |
| 2-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.72× | 58.52 |
| 3-2 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.59× | 58.50 |
| 3-3 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.86× | 58.52 |
| 3-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.79× | 58.52 |
| 4-0 | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.93× | 58.50 |
| 4-1 | 3.8% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 0.53× | 58.50 |
| 4-2 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.40× | 58.51 |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.79× | 58.52 |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 11.16× | 58.52 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar leading at HT (DNB) | 75.2% | 77.5% | — | — | 1.29 |
| Telstar leading at HT (DNB) | 24.8% | 22.5% | — | — | 4.45 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar or draw (1X) | 84.3% | 80.7% | 69.7% | 1.16× | 1.24 |
| AZ Alkmaar or Telstar (12) | 77.9% | 75.6% | 74.7% | 1.01× | 1.32 |
| Telstar or draw (X2) | 37.8% | 41.9% | 55.4% | 0.76× | 2.39 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar or draw at HT | 84.6% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| AZ Alkmaar or Telstar at HT | 62.1% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Telstar or draw at HT | 53.3% | 47.7% | — | — | 2.10 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar or draw (1UP) | 84.3% | 88.6% | — | — | 1.13 |
| Telstar or draw (1UP) | 37.8% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar or draw in 2nd half | 82.0% | 80.8% | — | — | 1.24 |
| AZ Alkmaar or Telstar in 2nd half | 68.8% | 65.8% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Telstar or draw in 2nd half | 49.2% | 48.1% | — | — | 2.08 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 56.0% | 58.0% | — | — | 1.72 |
| Neither half drawn | 44.0% | 42.0% | — | — | 2.38 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar (DNB) | 79.8% | 74.7% | 59.5% | 1.25× | 1.34 |
| Telstar (DNB) | 20.2% | 25.3% | 40.5% | 0.63× | 3.95 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar to score first | 64.4% | 64.8% | — | — | 1.54 |
| Telstar to score first | 30.3% | 26.7% | — | — | 3.74 |
| No goal scored | 5.4% | 7.4% | — | — | 13.47 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 54.8% | 60.2% | 0.91× | 1.82 |
| Not both teams to score | 43.0% | 45.2% | 39.8% | 1.13× | 2.21 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 46.6% | 44.3% | 48.7% | 0.91× | 2.26 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 28.9% | 33.6% | 28.8% | 1.17× | 2.97 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 14.2% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 1.10× | 8.11 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 10.3% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 1.06× | 8.12 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 83.2% | 83.1% | 80.6% | 1.03× | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 16.8% | 16.9% | 19.4% | 0.87× | 5.91 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 67.7% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 32.3% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.10 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 54.0% | 56.0% | — | — | 1.78 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 25.9% | 26.2% | — | — | 3.81 |
| Both score 1st half only | 13.7% | 10.6% | — | — | 9.46 |
| Both score in both halves | 6.3% | 6.7% | — | — | 14.84 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 79.9% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 20.1% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.38 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 62.0% | 58.6% | — | — | 1.71 |
| A half without a goal | 38.0% | 41.4% | — | — | 2.42 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 44.7% | 42.1% | 46.9% | 0.90× | 2.38 |
| 4-6 goals | 34.4% | 30.8% | 33.7% | 0.91× | 3.25 |
| 0-1 goals | 16.8% | 20.2% | 15.6% | 1.29× | 4.95 |
| 7+ goals | 4.1% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 0.44× | 54.82 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar to score exactly 0 | 36.6% | 36.0% | 26.8% | 1.34× | 2.78 |
| Telstar to score exactly 1 | 36.8% | 36.0% | 31.5% | 1.14× | 2.78 |
| Telstar to score exactly 2 | 18.5% | 19.5% | 27.0% | 0.73× | 5.12 |
| Telstar to score 3+ | 8.1% | 8.5% | 15.0% | 0.56× | 11.80 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar to score 3+ | 36.0% | 35.6% | 23.7% | 1.50× | 2.81 |
| AZ Alkmaar to score exactly 2 | 27.0% | 26.5% | 27.0% | 0.98× | 3.77 |
| AZ Alkmaar to score exactly 1 | 25.2% | 26.5% | 33.1% | 0.80× | 3.77 |
| AZ Alkmaar to score exactly 0 | 11.8% | 14.3% | 16.5% | 0.87× | 6.98 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar leading at HT | 46.7% | 52.3% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Draw at HT | 37.9% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Telstar leading at HT | 15.4% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.44 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar -1: 1 | 39.9% | 37.4% | — | — | 2.68 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1: 2 | 37.8% | 37.3% | — | — | 2.68 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1: X | 22.3% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar (0:1) | 39.9% | 37.4% | 25.4% | 1.47× | 2.68 |
| Telstar (0:1) | 37.8% | 37.3% | 55.4% | 0.67× | 2.68 |
| Draw (0:1) | 22.3% | 24.3% | 19.3% | 1.26× | 4.12 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar (0:2) | 60.1% | 67.1% | 74.6% | 0.90× | 1.49 |
| AZ Alkmaar (0:2) | 20.7% | 20.3% | 13.3% | 1.53× | 4.92 |
| Draw (0:2) | 19.1% | 15.3% | 12.3% | 1.25× | 6.53 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar (0:3) | 79.3% | 80.5% | 86.7% | 0.93× | 1.24 |
| Draw (0:3) | 11.7% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 1.28× | 9.99 |
| AZ Alkmaar (0:3) | 9.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 1.03× | 17.15 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar (0:4) | 91.0% | 94.6% | 94.3% | 1.00× | 1.06 |
| Draw (0:4) | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.78× | 21.61 |
| AZ Alkmaar (0:4) | 3.3% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 0.37× | 83.22 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar (1:0) | 84.3% | 81.5% | 69.7% | 1.17× | 1.23 |
| Draw (1:0) | 9.9% | 6.9% | 14.9% | 0.47× | 14.43 |
| Telstar (1:0) | 5.8% | 6.9% | 15.6% | 0.44× | 14.50 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar (2:0) | 94.2% | 94.0% | 84.4% | 1.11× | 1.06 |
| Draw (2:0) | 4.2% | 2.3% | 8.9% | 0.25× | 44.24 |
| Telstar (2:0) | 1.6% | 2.3% | 6.9% | 0.33× | 44.41 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 48.3% | 48.1% | — | — | 2.08 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 27.2% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Halves equal | 24.5% | 24.3% | — | — | 4.12 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar to concede | 63.4% | 63.4% | 73.2% | 0.87× | 1.58 |
| AZ Alkmaar clean sheet | 36.6% | 36.6% | 26.8% | 1.37× | 2.73 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar clean sheet in 1st half | 66.9% | 68.5% | — | — | 1.46 |
| AZ Alkmaar to concede in 1st half | 33.1% | 31.5% | — | — | 3.17 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar over 2.5 corners | 95.4% | 94.9% | — | — | 1.05 |
| AZ Alkmaar over 3.5 corners | 90.0% | 89.3% | — | — | 1.12 |
| AZ Alkmaar over 4.5 corners | 82.3% | 80.9% | — | — | 1.24 |
| AZ Alkmaar over 5.5 corners | 72.6% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| AZ Alkmaar over 6.5 corners | 61.9% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| AZ Alkmaar under 6.5 corners | 38.1% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| AZ Alkmaar under 5.5 corners | 27.4% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| AZ Alkmaar under 4.5 corners | 17.8% | 19.1% | — | — | 5.25 |
| AZ Alkmaar under 3.5 corners | 10.0% | 10.7% | — | — | 9.35 |
| AZ Alkmaar under 2.5 corners | 4.6% | 5.1% | — | — | 19.47 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar over 0.5 goals | 88.2% | 87.2% | 83.5% | 1.05× | 1.15 |
| AZ Alkmaar under 3.5 goals | 83.2% | 82.1% | 89.1% | 0.92× | 1.22 |
| AZ Alkmaar under 2.5 goals | 64.0% | 63.4% | 76.3% | 0.83× | 1.58 |
| AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 goals | 63.0% | 63.4% | 50.5% | 1.26× | 1.58 |
| AZ Alkmaar under 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 36.6% | 49.5% | 0.74× | 2.74 |
| AZ Alkmaar over 2.5 goals | 36.0% | 36.6% | 23.7% | 1.54× | 2.74 |
| AZ Alkmaar over 3.5 goals | 16.8% | 17.9% | 10.9% | 1.64× | 5.60 |
| AZ Alkmaar under 0.5 goals | 11.8% | 12.8% | 16.5% | 0.77× | 7.84 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar under 1.5 in 1st half | 76.5% | 76.9% | — | — | 1.30 |
| AZ Alkmaar over 0.5 in 1st half | 60.1% | 64.2% | — | — | 1.56 |
| AZ Alkmaar under 0.5 in 1st half | 39.9% | 35.8% | — | — | 2.79 |
| AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 in 1st half | 23.5% | 23.1% | — | — | 4.33 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 58.4% | 56.7% | 45.5% | 1.25× | 1.76 |
| Telstar (home no bet) | 41.6% | 43.3% | 54.5% | 0.79× | 2.31 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar even goals | 50.7% | 50.6% | 51.1% | 0.99× | 1.98 |
| AZ Alkmaar odd goals | 49.3% | 49.4% | 48.9% | 1.01× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 26.9% | 29.0% | — | — | 3.44 |
| HT 1-0 | 24.3% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.13 |
| HT 2-0 | 11.3% | 11.0% | — | — | 9.12 |
| HT 0-1 | 10.5% | 11.0% | — | — | 9.13 |
| HT 1-1 | 10.0% | 11.0% | — | — | 9.13 |
| Any other HT score | 7.4% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.17 |
| HT 2-1 | 4.5% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.73 |
| HT 0-2 | 2.2% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.91 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.0% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.92 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.9% | 2.3% | — | — | 44.00 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar at HT / AZ Alkmaar at FT | 40.4% | 43.9% | — | — | 2.28 |
| Draw at HT / AZ Alkmaar at FT | 18.6% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.94 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 13.0% | 12.7% | — | — | 7.90 |
| Telstar at HT / Telstar at FT | 8.0% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.56 |
| Draw at HT / Telstar at FT | 6.2% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.62 |
| AZ Alkmaar at HT / Draw at FT | 4.8% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.80 |
| Telstar at HT / Draw at FT | 4.2% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.82 |
| Telstar at HT / AZ Alkmaar at FT | 3.2% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.86 |
| AZ Alkmaar at HT / Telstar at FT | 1.4% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.93 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar to score last | 64.5% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Telstar to score last | 30.1% | 32.9% | — | — | 3.04 |
| No goal scored | 5.4% | 7.4% | — | — | 13.47 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 94.6% | 92.7% | — | — | 1.08 |
| AZ Alkmaar to lead by 1 at any time | 75.0% | 78.0% | — | — | 1.28 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 57.0% | 55.1% | — | — | 1.81 |
| AZ Alkmaar to lead by 2 at any time | 46.9% | 44.0% | — | — | 2.27 |
| Telstar to lead by 1 at any time | 35.0% | 34.7% | — | — | 2.88 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 26.5% | 25.3% | — | — | 3.96 |
| AZ Alkmaar to lead by 3 at any time | 24.0% | 19.6% | — | — | 5.10 |
| Telstar to lead by 2 at any time | 10.4% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.65 |
| Telstar to lead by 3 at any time | 2.5% | 1.6% | — | — | 64.02 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar most corners | 79.5% | 73.9% | — | — | 1.35 |
| Telstar most corners | 14.1% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.60 |
| Corners level | 6.4% | 8.5% | — | — | 11.82 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 84.7% | 83.5% | 87.6% | 0.95× | 1.20 |
| 2-6 goals | 79.1% | 78.6% | 80.4% | 0.98× | 1.27 |
| 1-4 goals | 73.7% | 72.4% | 75.8% | 0.96× | 1.38 |
| 2-5 goals | 73.3% | 72.4% | 75.5% | 0.96× | 1.38 |
| 2-4 goals | 62.3% | 63.4% | 63.7% | 1.00× | 1.58 |
| 3-6 goals | 56.7% | 59.2% | 55.7% | 1.06× | 1.69 |
| 1-3 goals | 56.2% | 59.2% | 59.0% | 1.00× | 1.69 |
| 3-5 goals | 50.9% | 53.2% | 50.8% | 1.05× | 1.88 |
| 2-3 goals | 44.7% | 43.6% | 46.9% | 0.93× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 39.9% | 39.2% | 39.1% | 1.00× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 34.4% | 35.4% | 33.7% | 1.05× | 2.83 |
| 1-2 goals | 33.8% | 35.4% | 36.9% | 0.96× | 2.83 |
| 4-5 goals | 28.6% | 30.2% | 28.8% | 1.05× | 3.31 |
| 5-6 goals | 16.8% | 18.6% | 16.8% | 1.11× | 5.37 |
| 7+ goals | 4.1% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 0.62× | 39.33 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar never behind | 59.6% | 62.8% | — | — | 1.59 |
| Telstar never behind | 19.6% | 18.9% | — | — | 5.29 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 47.8% | 50.8% | 49.0% | 1.04× | 1.97 |
| Even number of goals | 52.2% | 49.2% | 51.0% | 0.96× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 53.9% | 51.6% | — | — | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 46.1% | 48.4% | — | — | 2.07 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 52.0% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 48.0% | 47.9% | — | — | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94.6% | 92.3% | 96.5% | 0.96× | 1.08 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 90.1% | 92.3% | 91.0% | 1.01× | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | 82.4% | 84.4% | 0.98× | 1.21 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 79.1% | 77.4% | 79.2% | 0.98× | 1.29 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61.5% | 61.7% | 62.3% | 0.99× | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | 61.7% | 59.7% | 1.03× | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.2% | 38.3% | 40.3% | 0.95× | 2.61 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.5% | 38.3% | 37.7% | 1.02× | 2.61 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20.9% | 22.6% | 20.8% | 1.09× | 4.42 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.8% | 17.6% | 15.6% | 1.13× | 5.68 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 9.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 0.86× | 12.93 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 5.4% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 2.19× | 12.95 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 95.7% | 97.2% | 95.7% | 1.02× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 88.9% | 86.8% | 89.8% | 0.97× | 1.15 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 78.3% | 75.9% | 79.3% | 0.96× | 1.32 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 74.6% | 72.6% | 75.0% | 0.97× | 1.38 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 50.5% | 51.8% | 51.7% | 1.00× | 1.93 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 49.5% | 48.2% | 48.3% | 1.00× | 2.07 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 25.4% | 27.4% | 25.0% | 1.09× | 3.65 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 21.7% | 24.1% | 20.7% | 1.16× | 4.16 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 11.1% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 1.29× | 7.55 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 4.3% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 0.63× | 36.29 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 85.2% | 89.0% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 73.1% | 70.9% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 61.7% | 63.6% | — | — | 1.57 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 38.3% | 36.4% | — | — | 2.75 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 26.9% | 29.1% | — | — | 3.44 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 14.8% | 11.0% | — | — | 9.07 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 83.5% | 82.9% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 72.5% | 77.7% | — | — | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 54.7% | 53.5% | — | — | 1.87 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 45.3% | 46.5% | — | — | 2.15 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 27.5% | 22.3% | — | — | 4.49 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 16.5% | 17.1% | — | — | 5.86 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar not to score in both halves | 85.0% | 85.8% | — | — | 1.17 |
| AZ Alkmaar not to score in both halves | 57.7% | 57.7% | — | — | 1.73 |
| AZ Alkmaar to score in both halves | 42.3% | 42.3% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Telstar to score in both halves | 15.0% | 14.2% | — | — | 7.07 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 57.0% | 58.3% | 60.2% | 0.97× | 1.72 |
| Only AZ Alkmaar scores | 31.2% | 33.4% | 23.4% | 1.42× | 3.00 |
| Only Telstar scores | 6.4% | 7.2% | 13.2% | 0.55× | 13.92 |
| Neither team scores | 5.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 2.04× | 13.93 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 22.4% | 22.6% | 24.8% | 0.91× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.3% | 22.6% | 22.2% | 1.02× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 17.6% | 17.4% | 17.0% | 1.03× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 11.4% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 0.98× | 8.29 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 11.0% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 1.01× | 8.29 |
| 6 or more goals | 9.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 0.85× | 13.08 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 5.4% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 2.17× | 13.10 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 54.7% | 51.8% | — | — | 1.93 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 28.7% | 29.9% | — | — | 3.35 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 16.5% | 17.0% | — | — | 5.87 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar not to win both halves | 97.1% | 97.2% | — | — | 1.03 |
| AZ Alkmaar not to win both halves | 76.0% | 75.2% | — | — | 1.33 |
| AZ Alkmaar to win both halves | 24.0% | 24.8% | — | — | 4.03 |
| Telstar to win both halves | 2.9% | 2.8% | — | — | 35.85 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar to win either half | 73.5% | 73.1% | — | — | 1.37 |
| Telstar to win neither half | 69.4% | 68.0% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Telstar to win either half | 30.6% | 32.0% | — | — | 3.12 |
| AZ Alkmaar to win neither half | 26.5% | 26.9% | — | — | 3.72 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar not to win to nil | 93.6% | 92.0% | 86.8% | 1.06× | 1.09 |
| AZ Alkmaar not to win to nil | 68.8% | 69.7% | 76.6% | 0.91× | 1.44 |
| AZ Alkmaar to win to nil | 31.2% | 30.3% | 23.4% | 1.30× | 3.30 |
| Telstar to win to nil | 6.4% | 8.0% | 13.2% | 0.60× | 12.58 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar by 1 | 22.3% | 24.2% | 19.3% | 1.25× | 4.14 |
| Draw | 22.1% | 24.1% | 25.3% | 0.96× | 4.14 |
| AZ Alkmaar by 3+ | 20.7% | 24.1% | 13.3% | 1.81× | 4.14 |
| AZ Alkmaar by 2 | 19.1% | 17.0% | 12.3% | 1.38× | 5.90 |
| Telstar by 1 | 9.9% | 7.3% | 14.9% | 0.49× | 13.79 |
| Telstar by 2 | 4.2% | 2.7% | 8.9% | 0.30× | 37.00 |
| Telstar by 3+ | 1.6% | 2.7% | 6.9% | 0.39× | 37.09 |