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AZ Alkmaar v Telstar — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
AZ Alkmaar win
69.4%
model 68.7%
Draw
20.1%
model 19.3%
Telstar win
10.5%
model 12.0%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (147 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 10.4%
  2. 2-1 9.6%
  3. 1-1 9.0%
  4. 3-0 8.2%
  5. 1-0 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.564.1% Under 2.535.9%
BTTS yes55.7% BTTS no44.3%
AZ Alkmaar 1+90.7% AZ Alkmaar 2+68.7%
Telstar 1+60.3% Telstar 2+23.7%

Expected goals 2.38 – 0.93. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
81/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
AZ Alkmaar (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 45%
69.2% fair odds 1.45
strong signal · 931 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Telstar not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.4% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger rating, 1667 Elo against 1509.
  • Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

AZ Alkmaar have an estimated 69.4% win probability, against 20.1% for the draw and 10.5% for Telstar. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.38 for AZ Alkmaar and 0.93 for Telstar.

Why AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger rating, 1667 Elo against 1509. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 20.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Telstar can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for AZ Alkmaar, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Telstar, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

AZ Alkmaar: 57% possession, 19.6 shots a match, 9.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Telstar: 45% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. AZ Alkmaar's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

AZ Alkmaar are the model's most likely outcome at 69.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.4%. Confidence 81/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.38–0.93 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.14–1.01 1-1 10% 61% 57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar to win 62.2% 58.1% 44.6% 1.30× 1.72
Draw 22.1% 24.4% 25.3% 0.97× 4.09
Telstar to win 15.7% 19.3% 30.3% 0.64× 5.17
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar & not both score 31.2% 29.7% 23.4% 1.27× 3.37
AZ Alkmaar & both teams score 31.0% 29.7% 21.3% 1.39× 3.37
Draw & both teams score 16.7% 17.9% 21.9% 0.82× 5.58
Telstar & both teams score 9.3% 8.4% 17.3% 0.48× 11.92
Telstar & not both score 6.4% 8.4% 13.2% 0.64× 11.93
Draw & not both score 5.4% 8.4% 3.5% 2.38× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar & over 1.5 54.0% 48.7% 36.4% 1.34× 2.05
AZ Alkmaar & over 2.5 44.2% 40.3% 29.1% 1.39× 2.48
AZ Alkmaar & under 3.5 35.0% 30.9% 27.6% 1.12× 3.24
AZ Alkmaar & over 3.5 27.2% 26.0% 17.2% 1.52× 3.84
AZ Alkmaar & under 2.5 18.0% 18.0% 15.6% 1.15× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 16.7% 18.0% 21.9% 0.82× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 15.7% 18.0% 15.0% 1.20× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 15.7% 18.0% 15.0% 1.20× 5.56
Telstar & over 1.5 12.4% 12.9% 26.3% 0.49× 7.77
Telstar & under 3.5 10.8% 12.9% 20.1% 0.64× 7.77
Telstar & over 2.5 10.3% 12.9% 20.5% 0.63× 7.77
AZ Alkmaar & under 1.5 8.2% 7.9% 8.3% 0.95× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 6.3% 7.9% 10.4% 0.76× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 6.3% 7.9% 10.4% 0.76× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 5.4% 7.9% 3.5% 2.24× 12.70
Telstar & under 2.5 5.5% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.70
Telstar & over 3.5 4.9% 4.8% 10.4% 0.46× 20.92
Telstar & under 1.5 3.3% 4.8% 4.1% 1.16× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar (1UP) 75.0% 78.6% 1.27
Telstar (1UP) 35.0% 33.8% 2.96
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar (2UP) 62.2% 67.7% 1.48
Telstar (2UP) 15.7% 17.3% 5.77
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar to win 2nd half 50.8% 51.9% 1.93
2nd half drawn 31.2% 34.2% 2.92
Telstar to win 2nd half 18.0% 19.2% 5.21
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar (+0.5) 84.3% 82.4% 69.7% 1.18× 1.21
Telstar (+2.5) 79.3% 78.5% 86.7% 0.91× 1.27
AZ Alkmaar (-0.5) 62.2% 62.9% 44.6% 1.41× 1.59
Telstar (+1.5) 60.1% 62.9% 74.6% 0.84× 1.59
AZ Alkmaar (-1.5) 39.9% 37.1% 25.4% 1.46× 2.69
Telstar (+0.5) 37.8% 37.1% 55.4% 0.67× 2.69
AZ Alkmaar (-2.5) 20.7% 21.5% 13.3% 1.62× 4.64
Telstar (-0.5) 15.7% 17.6% 30.3% 0.58× 5.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar to concede 88.2% 86.5% 83.5% 1.04× 1.16
Telstar clean sheet 11.8% 13.5% 16.5% 0.82× 7.39
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar to concede in 1st half 60.1% 64.4% 1.55
Telstar clean sheet in 1st half 39.9% 35.6% 2.81
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar under 6.5 corners 86.7% 85.2% 1.17
Telstar under 5.5 corners 77.7% 75.9% 1.32
Telstar over 2.5 corners 69.5% 67.5% 1.48
Telstar under 4.5 corners 64.9% 61.8% 1.62
Telstar over 3.5 corners 51.5% 53.1% 1.88
Telstar under 3.5 corners 48.5% 46.9% 2.13
Telstar over 4.5 corners 35.1% 38.2% 2.62
Telstar under 2.5 corners 30.5% 32.5% 3.08
Telstar over 5.5 corners 22.3% 24.1% 4.16
Telstar over 6.5 corners 13.3% 14.8% 6.75
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar under 3.5 goals 98.1% 97.6% 94.3% 1.03× 1.03
Telstar under 2.5 goals 91.9% 92.3% 85.0% 1.09× 1.08
Telstar under 1.5 goals 73.4% 72.0% 58.2% 1.24× 1.39
Telstar over 0.5 goals 63.4% 62.9% 73.2% 0.86× 1.59
Telstar under 0.5 goals 36.6% 37.1% 26.8% 1.38× 2.70
Telstar over 1.5 goals 26.6% 28.1% 41.8% 0.67× 3.57
Telstar over 2.5 goals 8.1% 7.7% 15.0% 0.51× 13.06
Telstar over 3.5 goals 1.9% 2.4% 5.7% 0.43× 40.88
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar under 1.5 in 1st half 93.8% 94.2% 1.06
Telstar under 0.5 in 1st half 66.9% 68.2% 1.47
Telstar over 0.5 in 1st half 33.1% 31.8% 3.15
Telstar over 1.5 in 1st half 6.2% 5.8% 17.18
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar (away no bet) 73.8% 68.6% 63.8% 1.07× 1.46
Draw (away no bet) 26.2% 31.4% 36.2% 0.87× 3.18
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar even goals 56.7% 56.9% 57.4% 0.99× 1.76
Telstar odd goals 43.3% 43.1% 42.6% 1.01× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 79.3% 82.5% 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 20.7% 17.5% 5.73
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 72.3% 67.1% 1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals 27.7% 32.9% 3.04
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 65.6% 62.0% 1.61
AZ Alkmaar to score 2+ in a row 55.1% 55.1% 1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row 29.8% 25.2% 3.97
AZ Alkmaar to score 3+ in a row 26.5% 25.1% 3.98
Telstar to score 2+ in a row 17.5% 16.4% 6.09
Telstar to score 3+ in a row 3.7% 2.6% 38.17
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar corners (+3.5) 96.6% 95.8% 1.04
AZ Alkmaar corners (+2.5) 94.3% 89.6% 1.12
AZ Alkmaar corners (+1.5) 90.8% 89.6% 1.12
AZ Alkmaar corners (-1.5) 71.8% 70.7% 1.41
AZ Alkmaar corners (-2.5) 63.0% 61.9% 1.62
AZ Alkmaar corners (-3.5) 53.7% 52.5% 1.91
Telstar corners (+3.5) 46.3% 47.5% 2.11
Telstar corners (+2.5) 37.0% 38.1% 2.63
Telstar corners (+1.5) 28.2% 29.3% 3.41
Telstar corners (-1.5) 9.2% 10.4% 9.57
Telstar corners (-2.5) 5.7% 10.4% 9.59
Telstar corners (-3.5) 3.4% 4.2% 23.56
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 50.3% 45.2% 2.21
9-11 corners 26.6% 31.2% 3.20
0-8 corners 23.2% 25.6% 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 84.1% 80.8% 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 76.8% 76.5% 1.31
Over 9.5 corners 68.4% 67.7% 1.48
Over 10.5 corners 59.4% 57.7% 1.73
Under 12.5 corners 58.5% 57.7% 1.73
Over 11.5 corners 50.3% 53.3% 1.88
Under 11.5 corners 49.7% 46.7% 2.14
Over 12.5 corners 41.5% 42.3% 2.37
Under 10.5 corners 40.6% 42.3% 2.37
Under 9.5 corners 31.6% 32.3% 3.09
Under 8.5 corners 23.2% 23.5% 4.26
Under 7.5 corners 15.9% 19.2% 5.20
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.3% 11.4% 11.6% 0.98× 8.74
2-0 9.9% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.47
2-1 9.9% 7.4% 8.0% 0.93× 13.47
1-0 8.2% 7.4% 8.3% 0.90× 13.47
3-0 7.0% 7.4% 4.3% 1.73× 13.47
3-1 7.1% 7.4% 3.7% 2.02× 13.47
Any other score 6.9% 7.4% 6.6% 1.13× 13.47
0-0 5.4% 7.4% 3.5% 2.11× 13.47
1-2 4.7% 1.7% 8.1% 0.21× 58.50
2-2 5.0% 1.7% 8.6% 0.20× 58.50
0-1 3.3% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.51
0-2 2.2% 1.7% 6.0% 0.29× 58.51
0-3 0.7% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 58.52
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.86× 58.52
1-3 1.6% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.52
1-4 0.4% 1.7% 2.1% 0.80× 58.52
2-3 1.7% 1.7% 2.5% 0.70× 58.51
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.5% 3.72× 58.52
3-2 3.6% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.50
3-3 1.2% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.52
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% 2.79× 58.52
4-0 3.8% 1.7% 1.8% 0.93× 58.50
4-1 3.8% 1.7% 3.2% 0.53× 58.50
4-2 1.9% 1.7% 1.2% 1.40× 58.51
4-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.79× 58.52
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 11.16× 58.52
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar leading at HT (DNB) 75.2% 77.5% 1.29
Telstar leading at HT (DNB) 24.8% 22.5% 4.45
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar or draw (1X) 84.3% 80.7% 69.7% 1.16× 1.24
AZ Alkmaar or Telstar (12) 77.9% 75.6% 74.7% 1.01× 1.32
Telstar or draw (X2) 37.8% 41.9% 55.4% 0.76× 2.39
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar or draw at HT 84.6% 84.5% 1.18
AZ Alkmaar or Telstar at HT 62.1% 62.2% 1.61
Telstar or draw at HT 53.3% 47.7% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar or draw (1UP) 84.3% 88.6% 1.13
Telstar or draw (1UP) 37.8% 42.2% 2.37
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar or draw in 2nd half 82.0% 80.8% 1.24
AZ Alkmaar or Telstar in 2nd half 68.8% 65.8% 1.52
Telstar or draw in 2nd half 49.2% 48.1% 2.08
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 56.0% 58.0% 1.72
Neither half drawn 44.0% 42.0% 2.38
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar (DNB) 79.8% 74.7% 59.5% 1.25× 1.34
Telstar (DNB) 20.2% 25.3% 40.5% 0.63× 3.95
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar to score first 64.4% 64.8% 1.54
Telstar to score first 30.3% 26.7% 3.74
No goal scored 5.4% 7.4% 13.47
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 57.0% 54.8% 60.2% 0.91× 1.82
Not both teams to score 43.0% 45.2% 39.8% 1.13× 2.21
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 46.6% 44.3% 48.7% 0.91× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 28.9% 33.6% 28.8% 1.17× 2.97
Not both score & over 2.5 14.2% 12.3% 11.2% 1.10× 8.11
Both score & under 2.5 10.3% 12.3% 11.6% 1.06× 8.12
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 83.2% 83.1% 80.6% 1.03× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 16.8% 16.9% 19.4% 0.87× 5.91
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 67.7% 67.7% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 32.3% 32.3% 3.10
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 54.0% 56.0% 1.78
Both score 2nd half only 25.9% 26.2% 3.81
Both score 1st half only 13.7% 10.6% 9.46
Both score in both halves 6.3% 6.7% 14.84
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 79.9% 81.4% 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 20.1% 18.6% 5.38
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 62.0% 58.6% 1.71
A half without a goal 38.0% 41.4% 2.42
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.7% 42.1% 46.9% 0.90× 2.38
4-6 goals 34.4% 30.8% 33.7% 0.91× 3.25
0-1 goals 16.8% 20.2% 15.6% 1.29× 4.95
7+ goals 4.1% 1.8% 4.1% 0.44× 54.82
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar to score exactly 0 36.6% 36.0% 26.8% 1.34× 2.78
Telstar to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.0% 31.5% 1.14× 2.78
Telstar to score exactly 2 18.5% 19.5% 27.0% 0.73× 5.12
Telstar to score 3+ 8.1% 8.5% 15.0% 0.56× 11.80
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar to score 3+ 36.0% 35.6% 23.7% 1.50× 2.81
AZ Alkmaar to score exactly 2 27.0% 26.5% 27.0% 0.98× 3.77
AZ Alkmaar to score exactly 1 25.2% 26.5% 33.1% 0.80× 3.77
AZ Alkmaar to score exactly 0 11.8% 14.3% 16.5% 0.87× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar leading at HT 46.7% 52.3% 1.91
Draw at HT 37.9% 37.8% 2.65
Telstar leading at HT 15.4% 15.5% 6.44
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar -1: 1 39.9% 37.4% 2.68
AZ Alkmaar -1: 2 37.8% 37.3% 2.68
AZ Alkmaar -1: X 22.3% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar (0:1) 39.9% 37.4% 25.4% 1.47× 2.68
Telstar (0:1) 37.8% 37.3% 55.4% 0.67× 2.68
Draw (0:1) 22.3% 24.3% 19.3% 1.26× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar (0:2) 60.1% 67.1% 74.6% 0.90× 1.49
AZ Alkmaar (0:2) 20.7% 20.3% 13.3% 1.53× 4.92
Draw (0:2) 19.1% 15.3% 12.3% 1.25× 6.53
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar (0:3) 79.3% 80.5% 86.7% 0.93× 1.24
Draw (0:3) 11.7% 10.0% 7.8% 1.28× 9.99
AZ Alkmaar (0:3) 9.0% 5.8% 5.7% 1.03× 17.15
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar (0:4) 91.0% 94.6% 94.3% 1.00× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 5.7% 4.6% 2.6% 1.78× 21.61
AZ Alkmaar (0:4) 3.3% 1.2% 3.2% 0.37× 83.22
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar (1:0) 84.3% 81.5% 69.7% 1.17× 1.23
Draw (1:0) 9.9% 6.9% 14.9% 0.47× 14.43
Telstar (1:0) 5.8% 6.9% 15.6% 0.44× 14.50
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar (2:0) 94.2% 94.0% 84.4% 1.11× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 4.2% 2.3% 8.9% 0.25× 44.24
Telstar (2:0) 1.6% 2.3% 6.9% 0.33× 44.41
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.3% 48.1% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 27.2% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 24.5% 24.3% 4.12
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar to concede 63.4% 63.4% 73.2% 0.87× 1.58
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet 36.6% 36.6% 26.8% 1.37× 2.73
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet in 1st half 66.9% 68.5% 1.46
AZ Alkmaar to concede in 1st half 33.1% 31.5% 3.17
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar over 2.5 corners 95.4% 94.9% 1.05
AZ Alkmaar over 3.5 corners 90.0% 89.3% 1.12
AZ Alkmaar over 4.5 corners 82.3% 80.9% 1.24
AZ Alkmaar over 5.5 corners 72.6% 71.9% 1.39
AZ Alkmaar over 6.5 corners 61.9% 62.3% 1.61
AZ Alkmaar under 6.5 corners 38.1% 37.7% 2.65
AZ Alkmaar under 5.5 corners 27.4% 28.1% 3.56
AZ Alkmaar under 4.5 corners 17.8% 19.1% 5.25
AZ Alkmaar under 3.5 corners 10.0% 10.7% 9.35
AZ Alkmaar under 2.5 corners 4.6% 5.1% 19.47
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar over 0.5 goals 88.2% 87.2% 83.5% 1.05× 1.15
AZ Alkmaar under 3.5 goals 83.2% 82.1% 89.1% 0.92× 1.22
AZ Alkmaar under 2.5 goals 64.0% 63.4% 76.3% 0.83× 1.58
AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 goals 63.0% 63.4% 50.5% 1.26× 1.58
AZ Alkmaar under 1.5 goals 37.0% 36.6% 49.5% 0.74× 2.74
AZ Alkmaar over 2.5 goals 36.0% 36.6% 23.7% 1.54× 2.74
AZ Alkmaar over 3.5 goals 16.8% 17.9% 10.9% 1.64× 5.60
AZ Alkmaar under 0.5 goals 11.8% 12.8% 16.5% 0.77× 7.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar under 1.5 in 1st half 76.5% 76.9% 1.30
AZ Alkmaar over 0.5 in 1st half 60.1% 64.2% 1.56
AZ Alkmaar under 0.5 in 1st half 39.9% 35.8% 2.79
AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 in 1st half 23.5% 23.1% 4.33
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 58.4% 56.7% 45.5% 1.25× 1.76
Telstar (home no bet) 41.6% 43.3% 54.5% 0.79× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar even goals 50.7% 50.6% 51.1% 0.99× 1.98
AZ Alkmaar odd goals 49.3% 49.4% 48.9% 1.01× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 26.9% 29.0% 3.44
HT 1-0 24.3% 24.2% 4.13
HT 2-0 11.3% 11.0% 9.12
HT 0-1 10.5% 11.0% 9.13
HT 1-1 10.0% 11.0% 9.13
Any other HT score 7.4% 7.1% 14.17
HT 2-1 4.5% 2.3% 43.73
HT 0-2 2.2% 2.3% 43.91
HT 1-2 2.0% 2.3% 43.92
HT 2-2 0.9% 2.3% 44.00
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar at HT / AZ Alkmaar at FT 40.4% 43.9% 2.28
Draw at HT / AZ Alkmaar at FT 18.6% 16.8% 5.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.0% 12.7% 7.90
Telstar at HT / Telstar at FT 8.0% 6.0% 16.56
Draw at HT / Telstar at FT 6.2% 6.0% 16.62
AZ Alkmaar at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.5% 28.80
Telstar at HT / Draw at FT 4.2% 3.5% 28.82
Telstar at HT / AZ Alkmaar at FT 3.2% 3.5% 28.86
AZ Alkmaar at HT / Telstar at FT 1.4% 3.5% 28.93
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar to score last 64.5% 62.3% 1.60
Telstar to score last 30.1% 32.9% 3.04
No goal scored 5.4% 7.4% 13.47
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.6% 92.7% 1.08
AZ Alkmaar to lead by 1 at any time 75.0% 78.0% 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 57.0% 55.1% 1.81
AZ Alkmaar to lead by 2 at any time 46.9% 44.0% 2.27
Telstar to lead by 1 at any time 35.0% 34.7% 2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 26.5% 25.3% 3.96
AZ Alkmaar to lead by 3 at any time 24.0% 19.6% 5.10
Telstar to lead by 2 at any time 10.4% 10.4% 9.65
Telstar to lead by 3 at any time 2.5% 1.6% 64.02
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar most corners 79.5% 73.9% 1.35
Telstar most corners 14.1% 10.4% 9.60
Corners level 6.4% 8.5% 11.82
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.7% 83.5% 87.6% 0.95× 1.20
2-6 goals 79.1% 78.6% 80.4% 0.98× 1.27
1-4 goals 73.7% 72.4% 75.8% 0.96× 1.38
2-5 goals 73.3% 72.4% 75.5% 0.96× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.3% 63.4% 63.7% 1.00× 1.58
3-6 goals 56.7% 59.2% 55.7% 1.06× 1.69
1-3 goals 56.2% 59.2% 59.0% 1.00× 1.69
3-5 goals 50.9% 53.2% 50.8% 1.05× 1.88
2-3 goals 44.7% 43.6% 46.9% 0.93× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.9% 39.2% 39.1% 1.00× 2.55
4-6 goals 34.4% 35.4% 33.7% 1.05× 2.83
1-2 goals 33.8% 35.4% 36.9% 0.96× 2.83
4-5 goals 28.6% 30.2% 28.8% 1.05× 3.31
5-6 goals 16.8% 18.6% 16.8% 1.11× 5.37
7+ goals 4.1% 2.5% 4.1% 0.62× 39.33
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar never behind 59.6% 62.8% 1.59
Telstar never behind 19.6% 18.9% 5.29
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.8% 50.8% 49.0% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.2% 49.2% 51.0% 0.96× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.9% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.1% 48.4% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.0% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.0% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.6% 92.3% 96.5% 0.96× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 90.1% 92.3% 91.0% 1.01× 1.08
Over 1.5 goals 83.2% 82.4% 84.4% 0.98× 1.21
Under 4.5 goals 79.1% 77.4% 79.2% 0.98× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 61.5% 61.7% 62.3% 0.99× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 60.8% 61.7% 59.7% 1.03× 1.62
Under 2.5 goals 39.2% 38.3% 40.3% 0.95× 2.61
Over 3.5 goals 38.5% 38.3% 37.7% 1.02× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 20.9% 22.6% 20.8% 1.09× 4.42
Under 1.5 goals 16.8% 17.6% 15.6% 1.13× 5.68
Over 5.5 goals 9.9% 7.7% 9.0% 0.86× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 5.4% 7.7% 3.5% 2.19× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.7% 97.2% 95.7% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 88.9% 86.8% 89.8% 0.97× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 78.3% 75.9% 79.3% 0.96× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 74.6% 72.6% 75.0% 0.97× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 50.5% 51.8% 51.7% 1.00× 1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 49.5% 48.2% 48.3% 1.00× 2.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 25.4% 27.4% 25.0% 1.09× 3.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 21.7% 24.1% 20.7% 1.16× 4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 11.1% 13.2% 10.2% 1.29× 7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 4.3% 2.8% 4.3% 0.63× 36.29
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 85.2% 89.0% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 73.1% 70.9% 1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half 61.7% 63.6% 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 38.3% 36.4% 2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half 26.9% 29.1% 3.44
Over 2.5 in 1st half 14.8% 11.0% 9.07
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.5% 82.9% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 72.5% 77.7% 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 54.7% 53.5% 1.87
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 45.3% 46.5% 2.15
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 27.5% 22.3% 4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.5% 17.1% 5.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar not to score in both halves 85.0% 85.8% 1.17
AZ Alkmaar not to score in both halves 57.7% 57.7% 1.73
AZ Alkmaar to score in both halves 42.3% 42.3% 2.37
Telstar to score in both halves 15.0% 14.2% 7.07
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 57.0% 58.3% 60.2% 0.97× 1.72
Only AZ Alkmaar scores 31.2% 33.4% 23.4% 1.42× 3.00
Only Telstar scores 6.4% 7.2% 13.2% 0.55× 13.92
Neither team scores 5.4% 7.2% 3.5% 2.04× 13.93
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 22.4% 22.6% 24.8% 0.91× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 22.2% 1.02× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 17.6% 17.4% 17.0% 1.03× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 11.4% 12.1% 12.3% 0.98× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 11.0% 12.1% 11.9% 1.01× 8.29
6 or more goals 9.9% 7.6% 9.0% 0.85× 13.08
Exactly 0 goals 5.4% 7.6% 3.5% 2.17× 13.10
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 54.7% 51.8% 1.93
1 goal in 2nd half 28.7% 29.9% 3.35
No goals in 2nd half 16.5% 17.0% 5.87
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar not to win both halves 97.1% 97.2% 1.03
AZ Alkmaar not to win both halves 76.0% 75.2% 1.33
AZ Alkmaar to win both halves 24.0% 24.8% 4.03
Telstar to win both halves 2.9% 2.8% 35.85
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar to win either half 73.5% 73.1% 1.37
Telstar to win neither half 69.4% 68.0% 1.47
Telstar to win either half 30.6% 32.0% 3.12
AZ Alkmaar to win neither half 26.5% 26.9% 3.72
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar not to win to nil 93.6% 92.0% 86.8% 1.06× 1.09
AZ Alkmaar not to win to nil 68.8% 69.7% 76.6% 0.91× 1.44
AZ Alkmaar to win to nil 31.2% 30.3% 23.4% 1.30× 3.30
Telstar to win to nil 6.4% 8.0% 13.2% 0.60× 12.58
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AZ Alkmaar by 1 22.3% 24.2% 19.3% 1.25× 4.14
Draw 22.1% 24.1% 25.3% 0.96× 4.14
AZ Alkmaar by 3+ 20.7% 24.1% 13.3% 1.81× 4.14
AZ Alkmaar by 2 19.1% 17.0% 12.3% 1.38× 5.90
Telstar by 1 9.9% 7.3% 14.9% 0.49× 13.79
Telstar by 2 4.2% 2.7% 8.9% 0.30× 37.00
Telstar by 3+ 1.6% 2.7% 6.9% 0.39× 37.09
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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