Barcelona v Alaves — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 9
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 8
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.28
Set-piece xG
0.32 – 1.47
Goals − xG
+0.48 – -1.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Barcelona win
75.4%
Draw
15.2%
Alaves win
9.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Barcelona have scored 23 from 21.3 expected and conceded 8 from 9.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWWWLWLWWW last 10
scored 23
from 21.3 xG
conceded 8
from 9.8 xG
Alaves have scored 14 from 15.5 expected and conceded 11 from 9.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWLDWWLWDW last 10
scored 14
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.45–0.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.36–0.85 | 2-0 11% | 62% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Barcelona 2.52 xGAlaves 2.49 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Barcelona attacking right
Alaves attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.72 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Victor Parada |
| 0' |
Alaves |
Victor Parada | 0.56 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 1' |
Alaves |
Abderrahmane Rebbach | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Denis Suárez |
| 6' |
 Barcelona |
Eric Garcia | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 6' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 6' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Robert Lewandowski |
| 23' |
Alaves |
Jonny | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Abderrahmane Rebbach |
| 24' |
Alaves |
Abderrahmane Rebbach | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Raphinha |
| 27' |
Barcelona |
Marc Bernal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Raphinha |
| 36' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Abderrahmane Rebbach |
| 43' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Robert Lewandowski |
| 45' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Victor Parada |
| 49' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 56' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Raphinha |
| 56' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 64' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 68' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 70' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 73' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ferrán Torres |
| 73' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Barcelona |
Marc Casadó | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 77' |
Alaves |
Jon Pacheco Dozagarat | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Vicente |
| 77' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Vicente |
| 92' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lamine Yamal |
Players
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Boyé FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 1.02 |
| Jonny DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Jon Pacheco Dozagarat DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Antonio Blanco DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Victor Parada DL | 83 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.56 | 1.18 | 0.66 |
| Pablo Ibáñez MC | 71 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Denis Suárez MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.93 |
| Calebe MR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach ML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| Carles Aleñá Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Vicente Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| Jon Guridi Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ander Guevara Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Martínez Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal AMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1.22 | 0.40 | 1.64 |
| Dani Olmo AMC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.89 | 0.28 | 1.41 |
| Marc Casadó DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Gerard Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Álex Balde DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Raphinha AML | 64 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.52 | 0.86 |
| Robert Lewandowski FW | 63 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.92 | 1.38 |
| Eric Garcia DR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Marc Bernal DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Marcus Rashford Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Jules Koundé Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ferrán Torres Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Pedri Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Andreas Christensen Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |