Barcelona v Real Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 8
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.13
Goals − xG
+0.28 – -0.56
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Barcelona win
62.0%
Draw
19.2%
Real Madrid win
18.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Barcelona have scored 23 from 21.3 expected and conceded 8 from 9.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWWWLWLWWW last 10
scored 23
from 21.3 xG
conceded 8
from 9.8 xG
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.30–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.55–1.61 | 2-1 8% | 78% | 74% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Barcelona 1.72 xGReal Madrid 0.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Barcelona attacking right
Real Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brahim Diaz |
| 8' |
 Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 11' |
Real Madrid |
Gonzalo García | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 12' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 17' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dani Olmo |
| 21' |
Real Madrid |
Gonzalo García | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raúl |
| 32' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 37' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.17 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ferrán Torres |
| 38' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Real Madrid |
Fran García | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Eduardo Camavinga |
| 47' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pedri |
| 55' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | João Cancelo |
| 67' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Frenkie de Jong |
| 67' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Frenkie de Jong |
| 73' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 81' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Robert Lewandowski |
| 83' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Frenkie de Jong |
| 85' |
Real Madrid |
César Palacios | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
Players
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fermín López AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Eric Garcia DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.24 |
| Pedri DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1.11 |
| João Cancelo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.59 |
| Gerard Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.15 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Ferrán Torres FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.85 | 0.17 | 1.02 |
| Gavi DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Marcus Rashford AMR | 66 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 1.02 |
| Dani Olmo AMC | 66 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.43 | 0.85 |
| Raphinha Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Frenkie de Jong Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| Robert Lewandowski Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| Marc Bernal Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Álex Balde Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurelien Tchouameni DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Fran García DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Vinícius Júnior AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raúl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| Jude Bellingham AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Antonio Rüdiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Gonzalo García FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Brahim Diaz AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Eduardo Camavinga DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.32 |
| Thiago Pitarch Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| César Palacios Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Franco Mastantuono Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |