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Blackburn Rovers v Millwall — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Blackburn Rovers win
33.4%
model 35.0%
Draw
33.2%
model 31.0%
Millwall win
33.4%
model 34.0%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (767 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 14.7%
  2. 0-0 10.9%
  3. 1-0 9.6%
  4. 0-1 9.5%
  5. 2-1 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.542.2% Under 2.557.8%
BTTS yes49.7% BTTS no50.3%
Blackburn Rovers 1+69.7% Blackburn Rovers 2+33.5%
Millwall 1+69.1% Millwall 2+32.8%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
46/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
2-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 73%
69.1% fair odds 1.45
moderate signal · 2188 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Millwall (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 81%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 390 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Blackburn Rovers.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Blackburn Rovers have an estimated 33.4% win probability, against 33.4% for Millwall and 33.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.19 for Blackburn Rovers and 1.17 for Millwall.

Why Blackburn Rovers

Nothing in the data singles out Blackburn Rovers.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 33.2%. A combined 2.37 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.19 to 1.17. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Millwall can win

Millwall carry the stronger rating, 1534 Elo against 1424.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Blackburn Rovers, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Millwall, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Blackburn Rovers: 48% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 19.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Millwall: 54% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Blackburn Rovers are the model's most likely outcome at 33.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.7%. Confidence 46/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.19–1.17 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.14–0.99 1-1 15% 36% 44%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers to win 37.5% 36.4% 43.5% 0.84× 2.74
Draw 32.8% 30.4% 27.6% 1.10× 3.29
Millwall to win 29.7% 27.9% 29.0% 0.96× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers & not both score 23.8% 21.9% 23.4% 0.94× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 19.3% 17.9% 20.4% 0.88× 5.58
Millwall & not both score 18.5% 17.9% 15.3% 1.17× 5.58
Blackburn Rovers & both teams score 13.7% 13.3% 20.2% 0.66× 7.55
Draw & not both score 13.5% 13.3% 7.3% 1.81× 7.55
Millwall & both teams score 11.2% 13.2% 13.8% 0.96× 7.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers & under 3.5 30.4% 30.9% 32.5% 0.95× 3.24
Draw & under 2.5 28.5% 26.0% 21.6% 1.20× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 28.5% 26.0% 21.6% 1.20× 3.84
Blackburn Rovers & over 1.5 25.5% 26.0% 32.5% 0.80× 3.84
Millwall & under 3.5 24.5% 21.6% 22.3% 0.97× 4.62
Blackburn Rovers & under 2.5 19.8% 18.0% 17.2% 1.05× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 19.3% 18.0% 20.4% 0.88× 5.56
Millwall & over 1.5 19.5% 18.0% 21.4% 0.84× 5.56
Blackburn Rovers & over 2.5 17.7% 18.0% 26.4% 0.68× 5.56
Millwall & under 2.5 16.0% 18.0% 13.0% 1.39× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 13.5% 12.9% 7.3% 1.76× 7.77
Millwall & over 2.5 13.7% 12.9% 16.2% 0.80× 7.77
Blackburn Rovers & under 1.5 12.0% 12.9% 11.1% 1.16× 7.78
Millwall & under 1.5 10.2% 12.9% 7.7% 1.66× 7.78
Blackburn Rovers & over 3.5 7.1% 7.9% 11.1% 0.71× 12.69
Millwall & over 3.5 5.2% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 4.3% 4.8% 6.0% 0.79× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 4.3% 4.8% 6.0% 0.79× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers (1UP) 51.6% 52.7% 1.90
Millwall (1UP) 44.6% 39.0% 2.57
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers (2UP) 37.5% 37.0% 2.70
Millwall (2UP) 29.7% 24.8% 4.04
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 42.2% 41.2% 2.43
Blackburn Rovers to win 2nd half 30.7% 34.4% 2.91
Millwall to win 2nd half 27.1% 26.3% 3.81
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall (+2.5) 94.8% 92.1% 91.9% 1.00× 1.09
Millwall (+1.5) 83.7% 82.4% 80.7% 1.02× 1.21
Blackburn Rovers (+0.5) 70.3% 73.7% 71.0% 1.04× 1.36
Millwall (+0.5) 62.5% 62.9% 56.5% 1.11× 1.59
Blackburn Rovers (-0.5) 37.5% 37.1% 43.5% 0.85× 2.69
Millwall (-0.5) 29.7% 26.3% 29.0% 0.91× 3.80
Blackburn Rovers (-1.5) 16.3% 17.6% 19.3% 0.91× 5.69
Blackburn Rovers (-2.5) 5.2% 7.9% 8.1% 0.98× 12.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall to concede 68.0% 72.5% 77.5% 0.94× 1.38
Millwall clean sheet 32.0% 27.5% 22.5% 1.22× 3.64
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall clean sheet in 1st half 61.3% 64.7% 1.55
Millwall to concede in 1st half 38.7% 35.3% 2.83
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall over 2.5 corners 84.4% 81.0% 1.24
Millwall over 3.5 corners 71.2% 72.3% 1.38
Millwall under 6.5 corners 70.8% 72.3% 1.38
Millwall under 5.5 corners 58.3% 56.9% 1.76
Millwall over 4.5 corners 56.2% 56.9% 1.76
Millwall under 4.5 corners 43.8% 43.1% 2.32
Millwall over 5.5 corners 41.7% 43.1% 2.32
Millwall over 6.5 corners 29.2% 27.7% 3.61
Millwall under 3.5 corners 28.8% 27.7% 3.61
Millwall under 2.5 corners 15.6% 19.0% 5.25
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall under 3.5 goals 98.2% 97.6% 97.8% 1.00× 1.03
Millwall under 2.5 goals 92.2% 92.3% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
Millwall under 1.5 goals 74.1% 71.9% 69.9% 1.03× 1.39
Millwall over 0.5 goals 62.7% 62.9% 69.4% 0.91× 1.59
Millwall under 0.5 goals 37.3% 37.1% 30.6% 1.21× 2.70
Millwall over 1.5 goals 25.9% 28.1% 30.1% 0.93× 3.56
Millwall over 2.5 goals 7.8% 7.7% 9.5% 0.81× 13.07
Millwall over 3.5 goals 1.8% 2.4% 2.2% 1.09× 41.10
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall under 1.5 in 1st half 94.0% 94.2% 1.06
Millwall under 0.5 in 1st half 67.4% 67.9% 1.47
Millwall over 0.5 in 1st half 32.6% 32.1% 3.12
Millwall over 1.5 in 1st half 6.0% 5.8% 17.24
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers (away no bet) 53.3% 51.3% 61.2% 0.84× 1.95
Draw (away no bet) 46.7% 48.7% 38.8% 1.26× 2.05
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall even goals 57.0% 56.9% 52.6% 1.08× 1.76
Millwall odd goals 43.0% 43.1% 47.4% 0.91× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 92.2% 92.4% 1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals 7.8% 7.6% 13.12
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 50.3% 50.1% 2.00
Both halves under 1.5 goals 49.7% 49.9% 2.00
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 42.9% 38.2% 2.62
Blackburn Rovers to score 2+ in a row 25.8% 25.1% 3.98
Millwall to score 2+ in a row 20.3% 19.3% 5.19
Either team to score 3+ in a row 12.2% 12.0% 8.34
Blackburn Rovers to score 3+ in a row 7.3% 5.6% 17.94
Millwall to score 3+ in a row 4.9% 2.7% 37.11
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers corners (+3.5) 85.6% 84.2% 1.19
Blackburn Rovers corners (+2.5) 79.2% 75.5% 1.33
Millwall corners (+3.5) 76.0% 75.5% 1.33
Blackburn Rovers corners (+1.5) 71.2% 69.9% 1.43
Millwall corners (+2.5) 67.7% 66.8% 1.50
Millwall corners (+1.5) 58.2% 56.8% 1.76
Blackburn Rovers corners (-1.5) 41.8% 43.2% 2.31
Blackburn Rovers corners (-2.5) 32.3% 33.2% 3.01
Millwall corners (-1.5) 28.8% 30.1% 3.32
Blackburn Rovers corners (-3.5) 24.0% 24.5% 4.08
Millwall corners (-2.5) 20.8% 24.5% 4.08
Millwall corners (-3.5) 14.4% 15.8% 6.31
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 43.9% 37.1% 2.70
9-11 corners 29.2% 31.8% 3.15
0-8 corners 26.9% 31.8% 3.15
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 81.5% 79.8% 1.25
Over 8.5 corners 73.1% 72.5% 1.38
Under 12.5 corners 65.1% 67.9% 1.47
Over 9.5 corners 63.6% 62.7% 1.60
Under 11.5 corners 56.1% 57.8% 1.73
Over 10.5 corners 53.7% 52.2% 1.91
Under 10.5 corners 46.3% 47.8% 2.09
Over 11.5 corners 43.9% 42.2% 2.37
Under 9.5 corners 36.4% 37.3% 2.68
Over 12.5 corners 34.9% 32.1% 3.12
Under 8.5 corners 26.9% 27.5% 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 18.5% 20.2% 4.96
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 15.0% 11.5% 14.4% 0.79× 8.73
0-0 13.5% 11.5% 7.3% 1.57× 8.73
1-0 12.0% 11.5% 11.1% 1.03× 8.73
0-1 10.2% 11.4% 7.7% 1.48× 8.73
1-2 6.6% 7.4% 7.9% 0.94× 13.46
2-0 7.7% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.46
2-1 7.6% 7.4% 11.4% 0.65× 13.46
0-2 5.8% 7.4% 5.3% 1.39× 13.46
0-3 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.58
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.4% 3.97× 58.59
1-3 2.2% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.58
1-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 2.84× 58.59
2-2 3.8% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 58.57
2-3 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.59
2-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 6.62× 58.59
3-0 2.9% 1.7% 4.0% 0.42× 58.58
3-1 2.9% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.58
3-2 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% 0.95× 58.58
3-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.99× 58.59
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 6.62× 58.59
4-0 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 0.99× 58.59
4-1 0.8% 1.7% 0.9% 1.99× 58.59
4-2 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.21× 58.59
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 9.93× 58.59
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 19.87× 58.59
Any other score 1.0% 1.7% 2.9% 0.58× 58.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers leading at HT (DNB) 56.7% 57.5% 1.74
Millwall leading at HT (DNB) 43.3% 42.5% 2.35
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers or draw (1X) 70.3% 72.1% 71.0% 1.02× 1.39
Blackburn Rovers or Millwall (12) 67.2% 69.6% 72.4% 0.96× 1.44
Millwall or draw (X2) 62.5% 63.6% 56.5% 1.12× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers or draw at HT 78.5% 80.1% 1.25
Millwall or draw at HT 71.8% 74.6% 1.34
Blackburn Rovers or Millwall at HT 49.8% 52.9% 1.89
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers or draw (1UP) 70.3% 79.8% 1.25
Millwall or draw (1UP) 62.5% 71.3% 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers or draw in 2nd half 72.9% 73.7% 1.36
Millwall or draw in 2nd half 69.3% 65.6% 1.53
Blackburn Rovers or Millwall in 2nd half 57.8% 58.8% 1.70
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 69.6% 70.1% 1.43
Neither half drawn 30.4% 29.9% 3.35
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers (DNB) 55.8% 58.1% 60.0% 0.97× 1.72
Millwall (DNB) 44.2% 41.9% 40.0% 1.05× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers to score first 46.3% 45.5% 2.20
Millwall to score first 40.1% 41.5% 2.41
No goal scored 13.5% 10.5% 9.53
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 55.8% 54.7% 45.8% 1.20× 1.83
Both teams to score 44.2% 45.3% 54.2% 0.83× 2.21
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 49.4% 44.2% 37.3% 1.19× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 29.2% 33.6% 39.9% 0.84× 2.97
Both score & under 2.5 15.0% 12.3% 14.4% 0.85× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 6.5% 8.4% 8.6% 0.97× 11.97
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 91.9% 89.1% 89.0% 1.00× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 8.1% 10.9% 11.0% 0.99× 9.17
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 78.2% 75.2% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 21.8% 24.8% 4.03
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 68.0% 62.9% 1.59
Both score 2nd half only 19.2% 15.7% 6.35
Both score 1st half only 10.2% 10.4% 9.58
Both score in both halves 2.7% 4.9% 20.40
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 87.1% 85.5% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 12.9% 14.5% 6.89
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 57.6% 57.3% 1.75
A goal in each half 42.4% 42.7% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.6% 47.4% 50.4% 0.94× 2.11
0-1 goals 35.8% 35.0% 25.9% 1.35× 2.86
4-6 goals 16.0% 20.2% 22.4% 0.90× 4.95
7+ goals 0.6% 1.8% 1.4% 1.31× 55.38
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall to score exactly 0 37.3% 36.0% 30.6% 1.18× 2.78
Millwall to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.0% 39.4% 0.91× 2.78
Millwall to score exactly 2 18.1% 19.5% 20.7% 0.94× 5.12
Millwall to score 3+ 7.8% 8.5% 9.5% 0.90× 11.79
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers to score exactly 1 36.5% 35.6% 36.9% 0.96× 2.81
Blackburn Rovers to score exactly 0 32.0% 32.6% 22.5% 1.45× 3.06
Blackburn Rovers to score exactly 2 20.8% 23.3% 24.6% 0.95× 4.30
Blackburn Rovers to score 3+ 10.7% 14.3% 16.2% 0.89× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 50.2% 47.1% 2.12
Blackburn Rovers leading at HT 28.2% 25.4% 3.94
Millwall leading at HT 21.5% 19.9% 5.02
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers -1: 2 62.5% 62.4% 1.60
Blackburn Rovers -1: X 21.2% 23.6% 4.24
Blackburn Rovers -1: 1 16.3% 17.5% 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall (0:1) 62.5% 61.3% 56.5% 1.08× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 21.2% 24.3% 24.2% 1.00× 4.12
Blackburn Rovers (0:1) 16.3% 17.8% 19.3% 0.92× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall (0:2) 83.7% 82.8% 80.7% 1.03× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.1% 11.0% 11.3% 0.97× 9.09
Blackburn Rovers (0:2) 5.2% 7.7% 8.1% 0.95× 13.00
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall (0:3) 94.8% 92.7% 91.9% 1.01× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 3.9% 2.4% 4.8% 0.50× 41.97
Blackburn Rovers (0:3) 1.3% 2.4% 3.4% 0.71× 42.08
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall (0:4) 98.7% 98.1% 96.6% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.0% 1.2% 2.4% 0.50× 83.35
Blackburn Rovers (0:4) 0.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.16× 83.44
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers (1:0) 70.3% 72.5% 71.0% 1.02× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 18.2% 17.0% 17.3% 0.99× 5.87
Millwall (1:0) 11.5% 12.8% 11.9% 1.08× 7.81
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers (2:0) 88.5% 88.4% 88.1% 1.00× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.3% 6.5% 8.7% 0.74× 15.48
Millwall (2:0) 3.2% 2.3% 3.3% 0.69× 44.20
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 43.2% 46.4% 2.16
Halves equal 31.5% 29.9% 3.35
1st half highest scoring 25.3% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers to concede 62.7% 63.4% 69.4% 0.91× 1.58
Blackburn Rovers clean sheet 37.3% 36.6% 30.6% 1.20× 2.73
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers clean sheet in 1st half 67.4% 68.3% 1.47
Blackburn Rovers to concede in 1st half 32.6% 31.7% 3.15
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers over 2.5 corners 89.0% 85.2% 1.17
Blackburn Rovers over 3.5 corners 78.5% 76.1% 1.31
Blackburn Rovers over 4.5 corners 65.4% 67.7% 1.48
Blackburn Rovers under 6.5 corners 61.3% 62.0% 1.61
Blackburn Rovers over 5.5 corners 51.6% 53.0% 1.89
Blackburn Rovers under 5.5 corners 48.4% 47.0% 2.13
Blackburn Rovers over 6.5 corners 38.7% 38.0% 2.63
Blackburn Rovers under 4.5 corners 34.6% 32.3% 3.10
Blackburn Rovers under 3.5 corners 21.5% 23.9% 4.19
Blackburn Rovers under 2.5 corners 11.0% 14.8% 6.77
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers under 3.5 goals 97.1% 96.4% 94.8% 1.02× 1.04
Blackburn Rovers under 2.5 goals 89.3% 87.2% 83.8% 1.04× 1.15
Blackburn Rovers under 1.5 goals 68.5% 67.9% 59.4% 1.14× 1.47
Blackburn Rovers over 0.5 goals 68.0% 67.9% 77.5% 0.88× 1.47
Blackburn Rovers under 0.5 goals 32.0% 32.1% 22.5% 1.42× 3.12
Blackburn Rovers over 1.5 goals 31.5% 32.1% 40.6% 0.79× 3.12
Blackburn Rovers over 2.5 goals 10.7% 12.8% 16.2% 0.79× 7.84
Blackburn Rovers over 3.5 goals 2.9% 3.6% 5.2% 0.71× 27.43
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers under 1.5 in 1st half 91.3% 95.4% 1.05
Blackburn Rovers under 0.5 in 1st half 61.3% 64.5% 1.55
Blackburn Rovers over 0.5 in 1st half 38.7% 35.5% 2.82
Blackburn Rovers over 1.5 in 1st half 8.7% 4.6% 21.80
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 52.5% 51.6% 48.7% 1.06× 1.94
Millwall (home no bet) 47.5% 48.4% 51.3% 0.94× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers even goals 55.1% 55.4% 50.5% 1.10× 1.80
Blackburn Rovers odd goals 44.9% 44.6% 49.5% 0.90× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 41.6% 39.8% 2.51
HT 1-0 20.0% 18.9% 5.28
HT 0-1 16.0% 18.9% 5.31
HT 1-1 8.2% 7.1% 14.09
HT 2-0 5.0% 2.2% 44.55
HT 0-2 3.2% 2.2% 44.69
Any other HT score 2.1% 2.2% 44.77
HT 2-1 2.0% 2.2% 44.79
HT 1-2 1.6% 2.2% 44.82
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.2% 44.91
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 22.8% 22.1% 4.52
Blackburn Rovers at HT / Blackburn Rovers at FT 21.3% 22.1% 4.53
Millwall at HT / Millwall at FT 15.3% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Blackburn Rovers at FT 14.6% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Millwall at FT 12.8% 12.7% 7.89
Blackburn Rovers at HT / Draw at FT 5.3% 6.0% 16.64
Millwall at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.4% 29.10
Blackburn Rovers at HT / Millwall at FT 1.6% 3.4% 29.22
Millwall at HT / Blackburn Rovers at FT 1.6% 3.4% 29.22
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers to score last 46.4% 46.9% 2.13
Millwall to score last 40.1% 40.0% 2.50
No goal scored 13.5% 9.9% 10.13
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 86.5% 90.3% 1.11
Blackburn Rovers to lead by 1 at any time 51.6% 50.5% 1.98
Millwall to lead by 1 at any time 44.6% 39.1% 2.56
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 35.9% 34.7% 2.88
Blackburn Rovers to lead by 2 at any time 20.6% 19.6% 5.11
Millwall to lead by 2 at any time 15.4% 14.9% 6.72
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 10.4% 10.4% 9.61
Blackburn Rovers to lead by 3 at any time 6.3% 6.5% 15.38
Millwall to lead by 3 at any time 4.1% 1.6% 61.75
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers most corners 51.9% 52.9% 1.89
Millwall most corners 38.1% 38.6% 2.59
Corners level 10.0% 10.6% 9.40
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.3% 83.5% 88.8% 0.94× 1.20
1-4 goals 80.0% 83.5% 83.4% 1.00× 1.20
1-3 goals 69.9% 69.0% 69.1% 1.00× 1.45
2-6 goals 63.6% 63.5% 72.8% 0.87× 1.58
2-5 goals 62.1% 63.5% 70.2% 0.90× 1.58
2-4 goals 57.8% 59.2% 64.8% 0.91× 1.69
1-2 goals 50.8% 53.1% 44.4% 1.20× 1.88
2-3 goals 47.6% 48.7% 50.4% 0.96× 2.06
3-6 goals 35.0% 39.2% 47.1% 0.83× 2.55
3-5 goals 33.5% 35.4% 44.5% 0.79× 2.83
3-4 goals 29.2% 30.2% 39.1% 0.77× 3.31
4-6 goals 16.0% 18.6% 22.4% 0.83× 5.38
4-5 goals 14.4% 14.9% 19.8% 0.75× 6.73
5-6 goals 5.8% 8.7% 8.1% 1.08× 11.46
7+ goals 0.6% 2.5% 1.4% 1.84× 39.56
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers never behind 41.9% 48.2% 2.08
Millwall never behind 34.8% 35.6% 2.81
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 46.1% 50.8% 49.4% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 53.9% 49.2% 50.6% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 59.1% 58.0% 1.72
Odd goals in 1st half 40.9% 42.0% 2.38
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 55.3% 58.9% 1.70
Odd goals in 2nd half 44.7% 41.1% 2.44
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.9% 95.5% 96.0% 0.99× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 93.6% 92.3% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 86.5% 87.7% 92.7% 0.95× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 83.4% 82.4% 76.3% 1.08× 1.21
Under 2.5 goals 64.3% 61.8% 51.6% 1.20× 1.62
Over 1.5 goals 64.2% 61.8% 74.1% 0.83× 1.62
Under 1.5 goals 35.8% 38.2% 25.9% 1.47× 2.62
Over 2.5 goals 35.7% 38.2% 48.4% 0.79× 2.62
Over 3.5 goals 16.6% 17.6% 23.7% 0.74× 5.67
Under 0.5 goals 13.5% 12.3% 7.3% 1.69× 8.11
Over 4.5 goals 6.4% 7.7% 9.4% 0.82× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 2.1% 4.5% 4.0% 1.14× 22.22
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.4% 97.3% 98.6% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.8% 97.3% 95.8% 1.01× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 92.8% 92.5% 89.1% 1.04× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 79.5% 76.0% 68.5% 1.11× 1.32
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 50.1% 51.8% 34.9% 1.48× 1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 49.9% 48.2% 65.1% 0.74× 2.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 20.5% 24.0% 31.5% 0.76× 4.16
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 7.2% 7.5% 10.9% 0.69× 13.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.2% 2.7% 4.2% 0.66× 36.38
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.6% 2.7% 1.4% 1.95× 36.43
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 94.0% 93.0% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 77.6% 78.7% 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 58.4% 64.0% 1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half 41.6% 36.0% 2.78
Over 1.5 in 1st half 22.4% 21.3% 4.69
Over 2.5 in 1st half 6.0% 7.0% 14.22
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 87.1% 85.4% 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 70.5% 77.8% 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 64.3% 62.0% 1.61
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 35.7% 38.0% 2.63
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 29.5% 22.2% 4.51
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 12.9% 14.6% 6.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall not to score in both halves 85.5% 85.7% 1.17
Blackburn Rovers not to score in both halves 81.5% 84.2% 1.19
Blackburn Rovers to score in both halves 18.5% 15.8% 6.34
Millwall to score in both halves 14.5% 14.3% 7.02
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 44.2% 46.6% 54.2% 0.86× 2.15
Only Blackburn Rovers scores 23.8% 22.4% 23.4% 0.96× 4.47
Only Millwall scores 18.5% 16.1% 15.3% 1.05× 6.20
Neither team scores 13.5% 10.9% 7.3% 1.50× 9.13
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 28.5% 25.0% 25.8% 0.97× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 22.2% 22.6% 18.7% 1.21× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 19.1% 17.5% 24.7% 0.71× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 13.5% 12.1% 7.3% 1.65× 8.29
Exactly 4 goals 10.1% 12.1% 14.4% 0.84× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 4.3% 4.4% 5.5% 0.80× 22.61
6 or more goals 2.1% 4.4% 4.0% 1.12× 22.64
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 35.7% 39.7% 2.52
1 goal in 2nd half 34.8% 33.9% 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 29.5% 29.7% 3.37
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall not to win both halves 94.0% 94.0% 1.06
Blackburn Rovers not to win both halves 91.1% 93.9% 1.07
Blackburn Rovers to win both halves 8.9% 6.1% 16.46
Millwall to win both halves 6.0% 6.0% 16.68
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall to win neither half 57.4% 59.4% 1.68
Blackburn Rovers to win either half 50.0% 54.7% 1.83
Blackburn Rovers to win neither half 50.0% 45.3% 2.21
Millwall to win either half 42.6% 40.6% 2.46
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall not to win to nil 81.5% 83.0% 84.7% 0.98× 1.21
Blackburn Rovers not to win to nil 76.2% 78.0% 76.6% 1.02× 1.28
Blackburn Rovers to win to nil 23.8% 22.0% 23.4% 0.94× 4.55
Millwall to win to nil 18.5% 17.0% 15.3% 1.11× 5.87
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 32.8% 27.6% 27.6% 1.00× 3.62
Blackburn Rovers by 1 21.2% 24.1% 24.2% 1.00× 4.14
Millwall by 1 18.2% 16.9% 17.3% 0.98× 5.90
Blackburn Rovers by 2 11.1% 11.8% 11.3% 1.04× 8.47
Millwall by 2 8.3% 7.2% 8.7% 0.84× 13.80
Blackburn Rovers by 3+ 5.2% 7.2% 8.1% 0.90× 13.81
Millwall by 3+ 3.2% 2.7% 3.3% 0.83× 36.97
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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