Bologna v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 7
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.84 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.21 – +0.21
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bologna win
50.5%
Draw
27.9%
Genoa win
21.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLLDWWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 13.3 xG
conceded 12
from 10.3 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.56–0.95 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.52–0.97 | 1-0 13% | 45% | 49% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bologna 1.79 xGGenoa 0.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bologna attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Bologna |
Nikola Moro | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamín Domínguez |
| 4' |
 Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 17' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 23' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 29' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Bologna |
Nikola Moro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Remo Freuler |
| 32' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 34' |
Genoa |
Aarón Martín | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Bologna |
Torbjørn Heggem | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 40' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 57' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Vitík |
| 61' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.22 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 62' |
Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 66' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Nadir Zortea |
| 67' |
Bologna |
Martin Vitík | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 67' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Martin Vitík |
| 67' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Caleb Ekuban |
| 72' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolò Cambiaghi |
| 80' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nadir Zortea |
| 89' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.38 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Lewis Ferguson |
| 98' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Ellertsson AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.48 |
| Aarón Martín DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Patrizio Masini DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Morten Frendrup DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitinha AML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy AMC | 74 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.40 | 0.64 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 58 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentín Carboni Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riccardo Orsolini AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.40 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Santiago Castro FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Torbjørn Heggem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Martin Vitík DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Lukasz Skorupski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Remo Freuler DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.21 |
| Federico Bernardeschi AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| Nikola Moro DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Benjamín Domínguez AML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Lorenzo De Silvestri DR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi Sub | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.51 |
| Nadir Zortea Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Thijs Dallinga Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Lewis Ferguson Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| Jhon Lucumí Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |