Brest v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Brest

14:45

Paris Saint Germain

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 179h before kick-off

Brest win

18.8%

model 17.6%

Draw

18.8%

model 19.0%

Paris Saint Germain win

62.4%

model 63.4%

191962

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (222 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-2 9.7%
0-2 8.5%
1-1 8.4%
1-3 7.4%
0-1 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	66.8%	Under 2.5	33.2%
BTTS yes	61.1%	BTTS no	38.9%
Brest 1+	67.9%	Brest 2+	31.4%
Paris Saint Germain 1+	90.0%	Paris Saint Germain 2+	66.9%

Expected goals 1.14 – 2.30. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

98/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Paris Saint Germain (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 31%

63.5% fair odds 1.58

strong signal · 877 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Paris Saint Germain or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP · usually 62%

84.1% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 419 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger rating, 1808 Elo against 1484.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Paris Saint Germain have an estimated 62.4% win probability, against 18.8% for the draw and 18.8% for Brest. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.14 for Brest and 2.30 for Paris Saint Germain.

Why Brest

At home Brest average 2.18 xG a match. They have had 15 days' rest to Paris Saint Germain's 9. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Paris Saint Germain were missing 1.60 expected goal involvements a match against 0.40.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.8%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Paris Saint Germain can win

Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger rating, 1808 Elo against 1484.

Key players

Brest's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ludovic Ajorque (0.46), Kamory Doumbia (0.36), Romain Del Castillo (0.34). Paris Saint Germain's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bradley Barcola (0.47), Ousmane Dembélé (0.46), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (0.46).

Availability

27% of Brest's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Paris Saint Germain's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Brest: 48% possession, 18.8 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 1.34 xG a match from set pieces. Paris Saint Germain: 68% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.44 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Paris Saint Germain are the model's most likely outcome at 62.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 9.7%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Brest are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLDDLLLDDD last 10 scored 13 from 15.9 xG conceded 23 from 18.4 xG

Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWDWWLDDL last 10 scored 16 from 19.8 xG conceded 10 from 12.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	181963	1.14–2.30	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	161965	1.08–2.33	1-2 10%	66%	59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win	54.4%	51.5%	31.3%	1.64×	1.94
Brest to win	23.7%	24.4%	46.0%	0.53×	4.09
Draw	21.9%	24.4%	22.8%	1.07×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain & both teams score	29.2%	25.2%	15.4%	1.63×	3.97
Paris Saint Germain & not both score	25.2%	25.2%	16.1%	1.57×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	17.8%	17.9%	16.4%	1.09×	5.58
Brest & both teams score	13.7%	13.3%	22.2%	0.60×	7.55
Brest & not both score	10.0%	8.4%	23.9%	0.35×	11.94
Draw & not both score	4.1%	4.9%	6.6%	0.74×	20.48

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain & over 1.5	46.3%	45.2%	25.2%	1.79×	2.21
Paris Saint Germain & over 2.5	38.3%	34.9%	19.5%	1.79×	2.86
Paris Saint Germain & under 3.5	31.0%	30.9%	20.5%	1.51×	3.24
Paris Saint Germain & over 3.5	23.4%	21.6%	11.0%	1.96×	4.62
Brest & over 1.5	18.6%	18.0%	36.1%	0.50×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.8%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Brest & over 2.5	15.5%	18.0%	28.5%	0.63×	5.56
Brest & under 3.5	15.6%	18.0%	29.1%	0.62×	5.56
Paris Saint Germain & under 2.5	16.1%	18.0%	12.0%	1.50×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.1%	12.9%	16.5%	0.78×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	14.1%	12.9%	16.5%	0.78×	7.77
Brest & under 2.5	8.2%	7.9%	17.6%	0.45×	12.69
Brest & over 3.5	8.1%	7.9%	17.0%	0.46×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	7.8%	7.9%	6.5%	1.22×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	7.8%	7.9%	6.5%	1.22×	12.69
Paris Saint Germain & under 1.5	8.1%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.69
Brest & under 1.5	5.1%	7.9%	10.1%	0.78×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	4.1%	4.8%	6.6%	0.72×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (1UP)	69.6%	70.2%	49.1%	1.43×	1.43
Brest (1UP)	43.6%	38.9%	58.4%	0.67×	2.57

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (2UP)	54.4%	55.9%	33.7%	1.66×	1.79
Brest (2UP)	23.7%	23.6%	47.6%	0.50×	4.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win 2nd half	45.1%	45.5%	26.8%	1.70×	2.20
2nd half drawn	33.3%	34.5%	30.9%	1.12×	2.90
Brest to win 2nd half	21.5%	22.9%	42.5%	0.54×	4.36

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (+2.5)	97.0%	96.3%	89.9%	1.07×	1.04
Paris Saint Germain (+1.5)	90.5%	92.1%	74.8%	1.23×	1.09
Paris Saint Germain (+0.5)	76.3%	78.5%	54.0%	1.45×	1.28
Paris Saint Germain (-0.5)	54.4%	52.4%	31.3%	1.67×	1.91
Brest (+0.5)	45.6%	47.6%	68.7%	0.69×	2.10
Brest (-0.5)	23.7%	21.5%	46.0%	0.47×	4.64
Brest (-1.5)	9.5%	7.9%	25.2%	0.31×	12.65
Brest (-2.5)	3.0%	3.7%	10.1%	0.37×	26.81

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to concede	70.6%	76.5%	77.5%	0.99×	1.31
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet	29.4%	23.5%	22.5%	1.04×	4.25

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to concede in 1st half	45.3%	50.8%	47.6%	1.07×	1.97
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet in 1st half	54.7%	49.2%	52.4%	0.94×	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 corners	85.0%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Paris Saint Germain over 3.5 corners	74.0%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Paris Saint Germain over 4.5 corners	61.7%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Paris Saint Germain under 6.5 corners	61.6%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Paris Saint Germain under 5.5 corners	50.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Paris Saint Germain over 5.5 corners	49.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Paris Saint Germain under 4.5 corners	38.3%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Paris Saint Germain over 6.5 corners	38.4%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Paris Saint Germain under 3.5 corners	26.0%	27.7%	—	—	3.62
Paris Saint Germain under 2.5 corners	15.0%	15.1%	—	—	6.62

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain under 3.5 goals	86.5%	87.9%	93.5%	0.94×	1.14
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 goals	85.9%	87.9%	69.6%	1.26×	1.14
Paris Saint Germain under 2.5 goals	68.8%	68.0%	84.7%	0.80×	1.47
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 goals	58.2%	59.6%	36.5%	1.63×	1.68
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 goals	41.8%	40.4%	63.5%	0.64×	2.48
Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 goals	31.2%	32.0%	15.3%	2.10×	3.12
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 goals	14.1%	12.1%	30.4%	0.40×	8.24
Paris Saint Germain over 3.5 goals	13.5%	12.1%	6.5%	1.88×	8.25

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 in 1st half	76.8%	75.7%	87.6%	0.87×	1.32
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 in 1st half	59.8%	63.1%	42.4%	1.49×	1.59
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 in 1st half	40.2%	36.9%	57.6%	0.64×	2.71
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 in 1st half	23.2%	24.3%	12.4%	1.95×	4.12

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest (away no bet)	52.0%	51.2%	66.8%	0.77×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	48.0%	48.8%	33.2%	1.47×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain even goals	51.0%	52.7%	56.4%	0.94×	1.90
Paris Saint Germain odd goals	49.0%	47.3%	43.6%	1.08×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	77.8%	82.2%	83.2%	0.99×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	22.2%	17.8%	16.9%	1.06×	5.61

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	72.2%	66.9%	65.4%	1.02×	1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals	27.8%	33.1%	34.6%	0.96×	3.02

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	64.6%	59.7%	60.3%	0.99×	1.68
Paris Saint Germain to score 2+ in a row	48.9%	46.1%	27.9%	1.66×	2.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	26.9%	25.2%	22.7%	1.11×	3.98
Brest to score 2+ in a row	24.3%	19.4%	38.4%	0.50×	5.17
Paris Saint Germain to score 3+ in a row	21.1%	19.3%	9.1%	2.11×	5.18
Brest to score 3+ in a row	6.2%	5.5%	14.2%	0.39×	18.03

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain corners (+3.5)	93.6%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Paris Saint Germain corners (+2.5)	89.7%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Paris Saint Germain corners (+1.5)	84.1%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Brest corners (+3.5)	62.2%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Paris Saint Germain corners (-1.5)	57.7%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Brest corners (+2.5)	52.5%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Paris Saint Germain corners (-2.5)	47.5%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Brest corners (+1.5)	42.3%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Paris Saint Germain corners (-3.5)	37.8%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Brest corners (-1.5)	15.9%	20.0%	—	—	5.01
Brest corners (-2.5)	10.3%	15.8%	—	—	6.32
Brest corners (-3.5)	6.4%	11.3%	—	—	8.82

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.3%	40.6%	—	—	2.46
12+ corners	28.3%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
9-11 corners	26.4%	31.8%	—	—	3.15

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	78.3%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	71.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	64.6%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 10.5 corners	63.8%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 9.5 corners	54.9%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Over 8.5 corners	54.7%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Under 8.5 corners	45.3%	47.7%	—	—	2.09
Over 9.5 corners	45.1%	47.7%	—	—	2.09
Over 10.5 corners	36.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Under 7.5 corners	35.4%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 11.5 corners	28.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	21.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.28

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.0%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.46
1-2	9.7%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.46
0-1	8.1%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.46
0-2	7.9%	7.4%	5.8%	1.28×	13.46
0-3	5.2%	7.4%	2.5%	2.95×	13.46
1-0	5.1%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.46
1-3	6.4%	7.4%	3.5%	2.14×	13.46
2-1	6.1%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.46
2-2	6.0%	7.4%	4.9%	1.52×	13.46
Any other score	5.7%	7.4%	5.0%	1.47×	13.46
0-0	4.1%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.57
0-4	2.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.58
1-4	3.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.57
2-0	3.1%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.57
2-3	3.9%	1.7%	1.7%	0.99×	58.57
2-4	1.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.58
3-0	1.3%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.59
3-1	2.5%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.58
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.58
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.58
3-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.59
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	1.7%	0.99×	58.59
4-1	0.8%	1.7%	2.0%	0.83×	58.59
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.59
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.42×	58.59
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.42×	58.59

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain leading at HT (DNB)	63.9%	66.5%	46.3%	1.44×	1.50
Brest leading at HT (DNB)	36.1%	33.5%	53.7%	0.62×	2.99

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest or Paris Saint Germain (12)	78.1%	75.6%	77.2%	0.98×	1.32
Paris Saint Germain or draw (X2)	76.3%	75.6%	54.0%	1.40×	1.32
Brest or draw (1X)	45.6%	48.5%	68.7%	0.71×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw at HT	76.9%	80.0%	66.9%	1.20×	1.25
Brest or Paris Saint Germain at HT	64.2%	62.2%	61.4%	1.01×	1.61
Brest or draw at HT	59.0%	56.8%	71.5%	0.80×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw (1UP)	76.3%	83.9%	61.9%	1.36×	1.19
Brest or draw (1UP)	45.6%	52.1%	72.9%	0.71×	1.92

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw in 2nd half	78.5%	77.1%	57.5%	1.34×	1.30
Brest or Paris Saint Germain in 2nd half	66.7%	65.5%	69.1%	0.95×	1.53
Brest or draw in 2nd half	54.9%	54.5%	73.2%	0.74×	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.2%	58.3%	56.5%	1.03×	1.72
Neither half drawn	42.8%	41.7%	43.5%	0.96×	2.40

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (DNB)	69.6%	67.2%	40.5%	1.66×	1.49
Brest (DNB)	30.4%	32.8%	59.5%	0.55×	3.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score first	58.9%	62.3%	43.9%	1.42×	1.61
Brest to score first	36.9%	32.5%	49.6%	0.65×	3.08
No goal scored	4.1%	4.4%	6.6%	0.66×	22.91

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.7%	56.5%	53.7%	1.05×	1.77
Not both teams to score	39.3%	43.5%	46.3%	0.94×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	50.7%	47.0%	43.8%	1.07×	2.13
Not both score & under 2.5	28.4%	33.6%	35.9%	0.94×	2.97
Not both score & over 2.5	10.9%	12.3%	10.6%	1.17×	8.11
Both score & under 2.5	10.0%	8.4%	10.1%	0.83×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.8%	80.1%	84.9%	0.94×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.2%	19.9%	15.1%	1.32×	5.03

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.0%	67.8%	70.1%	0.97×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.0%	32.2%	29.9%	1.08×	3.10

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	51.0%	56.1%	57.8%	0.97×	1.78
Both score 2nd half only	21.9%	21.1%	23.8%	0.89×	4.74
Both score 1st half only	19.0%	15.7%	12.4%	1.26×	6.36
Both score in both halves	8.1%	6.7%	6.3%	1.07×	14.88

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	72.9%	80.0%	81.4%	0.98×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	27.1%	20.0%	18.6%	1.08×	5.00

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	63.3%	59.0%	59.5%	0.99×	1.70
A half without a goal	36.7%	41.0%	40.5%	1.01×	2.44

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.3%	42.1%	43.3%	0.97×	2.37
4-6 goals	35.0%	35.0%	30.9%	1.13×	2.86
0-1 goals	17.4%	20.2%	22.7%	0.89×	4.94
7+ goals	4.3%	1.8%	3.5%	0.53×	54.98

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score 3+	31.2%	33.9%	15.3%	2.22×	2.95
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 1	27.7%	27.4%	33.2%	0.82×	3.65
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 2	27.1%	27.4%	21.4%	1.28×	3.65
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 0	14.1%	12.8%	30.4%	0.42×	7.80

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest to score exactly 1	36.0%	35.6%	31.7%	1.13×	2.81
Brest to score exactly 0	29.4%	26.5%	22.5%	1.18×	3.77
Brest to score exactly 2	22.1%	23.3%	23.0%	1.01×	4.30
Brest to score 3+	12.6%	14.3%	23.2%	0.62×	6.97

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain leading at HT	41.0%	43.2%	28.5%	1.51×	2.32
Draw at HT	35.8%	37.8%	38.6%	0.98×	2.65
Brest leading at HT	23.1%	20.0%	33.1%	0.61×	5.00

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain -1: 1	45.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Paris Saint Germain -1: 2	31.8%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Paris Saint Germain -1: X	22.6%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:1)	76.3%	73.7%	54.0%	1.36×	1.36
Draw (0:1)	14.2%	13.9%	20.9%	0.66×	7.22
Brest (0:1)	9.5%	9.3%	25.2%	0.37×	10.78

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:2)	90.5%	90.7%	74.8%	1.21×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	6.5%	7.7%	15.3%	0.50×	12.99
Brest (0:2)	3.0%	3.8%	10.1%	0.37×	26.51

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:3)	97.0%	96.6%	89.9%	1.07×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.2%	2.4%	6.1%	0.39×	42.04
Brest (0:3)	0.8%	2.4%	4.1%	0.58×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:4)	99.2%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	2.7%	0.45×	83.40
Brest (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.6%	0.76×	83.46

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest (1:0)	45.6%	49.6%	68.7%	0.72×	2.02
Paris Saint Germain (1:0)	31.8%	30.3%	16.9%	1.80×	3.30
Draw (1:0)	22.6%	21.7%	14.6%	1.48×	4.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest (2:0)	68.2%	70.6%	83.2%	0.85×	1.42
Draw (2:0)	16.5%	15.6%	9.9%	1.58×	6.39
Paris Saint Germain (2:0)	15.2%	15.6%	7.1%	2.20×	6.41

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	41.5%	45.9%	47.2%	0.97×	2.18
1st half highest scoring	35.1%	35.1%	26.6%	1.32×	2.85
Halves equal	23.4%	24.2%	26.3%	0.92×	4.13

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest to concede	85.9%	86.0%	69.6%	1.24×	1.16
Brest clean sheet	14.1%	14.0%	30.4%	0.46×	7.13

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest to concede in 1st half	59.8%	63.1%	42.4%	1.49×	1.59
Brest clean sheet in 1st half	40.2%	36.9%	57.6%	0.64×	2.71

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest under 6.5 corners	89.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Brest under 5.5 corners	82.0%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Brest under 4.5 corners	71.3%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Brest over 2.5 corners	60.9%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Brest under 3.5 corners	56.7%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Brest over 3.5 corners	43.3%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Brest under 2.5 corners	39.1%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Brest over 4.5 corners	28.7%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Brest over 5.5 corners	18.0%	18.7%	—	—	5.36
Brest over 6.5 corners	10.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest under 3.5 goals	96.4%	96.4%	91.7%	1.05×	1.04
Brest under 2.5 goals	87.4%	87.2%	76.9%	1.14×	1.15
Brest over 0.5 goals	70.6%	74.2%	77.5%	0.96×	1.35
Brest under 1.5 goals	65.3%	67.9%	54.0%	1.26×	1.47
Brest over 1.5 goals	34.7%	32.1%	46.0%	0.70×	3.12
Brest under 0.5 goals	29.4%	25.8%	22.5%	1.14×	3.88
Brest over 2.5 goals	12.6%	12.8%	23.2%	0.55×	7.83
Brest over 3.5 goals	3.6%	3.7%	8.3%	0.44×	27.40

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest under 1.5 in 1st half	87.7%	90.0%	87.2%	1.03×	1.11
Brest over 0.5 in 1st half	45.3%	50.9%	47.6%	1.07×	1.97
Brest under 0.5 in 1st half	54.7%	49.1%	52.4%	0.94×	2.04
Brest over 1.5 in 1st half	12.3%	10.0%	12.8%	0.79×	9.96

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (home no bet)	71.3%	66.6%	57.8%	1.15×	1.50
Draw (home no bet)	28.7%	33.4%	42.2%	0.79×	2.99

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest even goals	54.3%	50.7%	51.3%	0.99×	1.97
Brest odd goals	45.7%	49.3%	48.7%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	21.9%	24.2%	28.7%	0.84×	4.13
HT 0-1	20.0%	24.2%	16.9%	1.43×	4.14
HT 1-0	13.3%	11.1%	21.3%	0.52×	9.04
HT 1-1	12.1%	11.1%	9.4%	1.17×	9.05
HT 0-2	9.1%	7.1%	5.5%	1.29×	14.08
Any other HT score	8.7%	7.1%	4.7%	1.50×	14.08
HT 1-2	5.5%	7.1%	4.1%	1.73×	14.13
HT 2-0	4.0%	2.2%	6.6%	0.34×	44.62
HT 2-1	3.7%	2.2%	3.3%	0.68×	44.65
HT 2-2	1.7%	2.2%	0.8%	2.83×	44.81

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	34.8%	32.4%	18.9%	1.72×	3.08
Draw at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	16.2%	16.8%	11.0%	1.52×	5.96
Brest at HT / Brest at FT	14.4%	12.7%	27.7%	0.46×	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.9%	12.7%	12.9%	0.98×	7.90
Draw at HT / Brest at FT	7.7%	6.0%	15.0%	0.40×	16.56
Brest at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	3.9%	1.53×	16.64
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.4%	6.3%	0.55×	29.10
Brest at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	3.4%	3.4%	1.7%	1.98×	29.15
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Brest at FT	1.6%	3.4%	3.6%	0.94×	29.22

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score last	58.9%	56.6%	40.5%	1.40×	1.77
Brest to score last	36.9%	38.2%	53.1%	0.72×	2.61
No goal scored	4.1%	4.4%	6.6%	0.66×	22.91

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.9%	95.6%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 1 at any time	69.6%	69.6%	49.1%	1.42×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.6%	50.6%	51.3%	0.99×	1.98
Brest to lead by 1 at any time	43.6%	39.1%	58.4%	0.67×	2.56
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 2 at any time	39.5%	34.8%	21.7%	1.60×	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	23.0%	19.6%	20.2%	0.97×	5.10
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 3 at any time	18.4%	14.9%	8.3%	1.79×	6.69
Brest to lead by 2 at any time	15.5%	14.9%	29.8%	0.50×	6.72
Brest to lead by 3 at any time	4.5%	1.6%	12.0%	0.14×	61.29

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain most corners	67.7%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Brest most corners	23.3%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Corners level	9.0%	8.4%	—	—	11.89

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.5%	87.4%	85.0%	1.03×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.3%	78.6%	74.0%	1.06×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.2%	72.4%	76.5%	0.95×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.3%	72.4%	69.0%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.0%	63.5%	60.5%	1.05×	1.58
3-6 goals	57.3%	59.2%	50.9%	1.16×	1.69
1-3 goals	56.5%	59.2%	59.4%	1.00×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.3%	53.1%	45.8%	1.16×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.3%	43.6%	43.3%	1.01×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.0%	43.6%	37.3%	1.17×	2.29
4-6 goals	35.0%	39.2%	30.9%	1.27×	2.55
1-2 goals	34.2%	35.4%	39.4%	0.90×	2.83
4-5 goals	29.0%	30.2%	25.8%	1.17×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.3%	18.6%	13.7%	1.36×	5.37
7+ goals	4.3%	2.5%	3.5%	0.73×	39.38

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain never behind	52.3%	62.6%	41.6%	1.51×	1.60
Brest never behind	26.3%	29.9%	50.9%	0.59×	3.35

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	47.1%	1.08×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	52.9%	0.93×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.4%	51.5%	51.8%	0.99×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.6%	48.5%	48.2%	1.01×	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.8%	52.0%	49.3%	1.06×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.2%	48.0%	50.7%	0.95×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.9%	95.5%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	89.7%	87.7%	91.5%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	82.6%	82.4%	77.3%	1.07×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	78.4%	77.4%	83.0%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	61.6%	61.7%	54.2%	1.14×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	60.6%	61.7%	65.8%	0.94×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	39.4%	38.3%	34.2%	1.12×	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	38.4%	38.3%	45.8%	0.83×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	21.6%	22.6%	17.0%	1.33×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	17.4%	17.6%	22.7%	0.78×	5.67
Over 5.5 goals	10.3%	12.3%	8.5%	1.45×	8.12
Under 0.5 goals	4.1%	4.5%	6.6%	0.68×	22.18

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.4%	97.2%	96.4%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.4%	86.7%	90.7%	0.96×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	78.0%	75.9%	70.5%	1.08×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	73.7%	72.6%	79.5%	0.91×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.6%	51.8%	42.7%	1.21×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.4%	48.2%	57.3%	0.84×	2.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	26.3%	27.4%	20.5%	1.33×	3.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	22.0%	24.1%	29.5%	0.82×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.6%	13.3%	9.3%	1.43×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.6%	2.8%	3.6%	0.75×	36.31

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	80.5%	86.3%	87.6%	0.99×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	78.1%	78.7%	71.3%	1.10×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	55.2%	63.7%	66.5%	0.96×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	44.8%	36.3%	33.5%	1.08×	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	21.9%	21.3%	28.7%	0.74×	4.70
Over 2.5 in 1st half	19.5%	13.7%	12.4%	1.10×	7.32

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.1%	82.9%	81.6%	1.02×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.6%	79.9%	75.3%	1.06×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	50.4%	53.0%	51.3%	1.03×	1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	49.6%	47.0%	48.7%	0.97×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.4%	20.1%	24.7%	0.81×	4.98
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.9%	17.1%	18.4%	0.93×	5.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest not to score in both halves	79.0%	78.5%	68.0%	1.15×	1.27
Paris Saint Germain not to score in both halves	61.2%	63.4%	77.6%	0.82×	1.58
Paris Saint Germain to score in both halves	38.8%	36.6%	22.4%	1.64×	2.73
Brest to score in both halves	21.0%	21.5%	32.0%	0.67×	4.64

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	60.7%	60.2%	53.7%	1.12×	1.66
Only Paris Saint Germain scores	25.2%	26.1%	16.1%	1.63×	3.83
Only Brest scores	10.0%	7.2%	23.9%	0.30×	13.92
Neither team scores	4.1%	4.6%	6.6%	0.70×	21.71

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	20.2%	1.12×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	21.0%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.7%	17.5%	17.3%	1.01×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.2%	12.1%	16.2%	0.74×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	11.3%	12.1%	8.7%	1.39×	8.29
6 or more goals	10.3%	12.1%	8.5%	1.42×	8.29
Exactly 0 goals	4.1%	4.4%	6.6%	0.67×	22.61

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	49.6%	44.9%	48.7%	0.92×	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	31.5%	33.8%	33.1%	1.02×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	18.9%	16.9%	18.4%	0.92×	5.90

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest not to win both halves	95.0%	97.1%	83.2%	1.17×	1.03
Paris Saint Germain not to win both halves	81.5%	84.1%	90.7%	0.93×	1.19
Paris Saint Germain to win both halves	18.5%	15.9%	9.3%	1.71×	6.30
Brest to win both halves	5.0%	2.9%	16.9%	0.17×	34.65

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win either half	67.7%	67.8%	46.0%	1.47×	1.48
Brest to win neither half	60.3%	65.2%	41.3%	1.58×	1.53
Brest to win either half	39.7%	34.8%	58.7%	0.59×	2.88
Paris Saint Germain to win neither half	32.3%	32.2%	54.0%	0.60×	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest not to win to nil	90.0%	92.0%	76.1%	1.21×	1.09
Paris Saint Germain not to win to nil	74.8%	75.3%	83.9%	0.90×	1.33
Paris Saint Germain to win to nil	25.2%	24.7%	16.1%	1.54×	4.05
Brest to win to nil	10.0%	8.0%	23.9%	0.33×	12.51

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain by 1	22.6%	24.1%	14.6%	1.65×	4.14
Draw	21.9%	24.1%	22.8%	1.06×	4.14
Paris Saint Germain by 2	16.5%	16.9%	9.9%	1.71×	5.90
Paris Saint Germain by 3+	15.2%	16.9%	7.1%	2.39×	5.90
Brest by 1	14.2%	11.8%	20.9%	0.56×	8.46
Brest by 2	6.5%	7.2%	15.3%	0.47×	13.81
Brest by 3+	3.0%	2.7%	10.1%	0.27×	36.97