Burnley v Derby County — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627
Championship
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyBurnley win
44.6%
model 44.4%
Draw
27.8%
model 29.1%
Derby County win
27.7%
model 26.5%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.9%
- 1-0 10.0%
- 0-0 9.3%
- 2-1 9.1%
- 2-0 8.4%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 46.8% | Under 2.5 | 53.2% |
| BTTS yes | 52.3% | BTTS no | 47.7% |
| Burnley 1+ | 76.8% | Burnley 2+ | 42.9% |
| Derby County 1+ | 66.1% | Derby County 2+ | 29.5% |
Expected goals 1.46 – 1.08. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
47/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
1-4 goals
Multi goal · usually 83%
78.9% fair odds 1.27
moderate signal · 2094 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
83.0% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1236 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Burnley.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Burnley have an estimated 44.6% win probability, against 27.8% for the draw and 27.7% for Derby County. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.46 for Burnley and 1.08 for Derby County.
Why Burnley
Nothing in the data singles out Burnley.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.8%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.
Why Derby County can win
Derby County carry the stronger rating, 1466 Elo against 1381.
Key players
Burnley's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Zian Flemming (0.35), Jaidon Anthony (0.25), Marcus Edwards (0.16).
Availability
1 of Burnley's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Derby County, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Burnley: 54% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.16 xG a match from set pieces. Derby County: 45% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Burnley's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Burnley are the model's most likely outcome at 44.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.9%. Confidence 47/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.46–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.37–0.95 | 1-1 14% | 41% | 47% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley to win | 45.1% | 47.4% | 43.5% | 1.09× | 2.11 |
| Draw | 30.4% | 30.4% | 27.6% | 1.10× | 3.29 |
| Derby County to win | 24.5% | 24.4% | 29.0% | 0.84× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley & not both score | 27.4% | 25.2% | 23.4% | 1.08× | 3.97 |
| Draw & both teams score | 19.1% | 17.9% | 20.4% | 0.88× | 5.58 |
| Burnley & both teams score | 17.7% | 17.9% | 20.2% | 0.89× | 5.58 |
| Derby County & not both score | 14.0% | 13.3% | 15.3% | 0.87× | 7.55 |
| Draw & not both score | 11.3% | 13.2% | 7.3% | 1.81× | 7.55 |
| Derby County & both teams score | 10.4% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 0.96× | 7.55 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley & under 3.5 | 34.2% | 30.9% | 32.5% | 0.95× | 3.24 |
| Burnley & over 1.5 | 33.2% | 30.9% | 32.5% | 0.95× | 3.24 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 25.6% | 26.0% | 21.6% | 1.20× | 3.84 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 25.6% | 26.0% | 21.6% | 1.20× | 3.84 |
| Burnley & over 2.5 | 23.9% | 21.6% | 26.4% | 0.82× | 4.62 |
| Burnley & under 2.5 | 21.2% | 21.6% | 17.2% | 1.26× | 4.62 |
| Derby County & under 3.5 | 19.7% | 18.0% | 22.3% | 0.81× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 19.1% | 18.0% | 20.4% | 0.88× | 5.56 |
| Derby County & over 1.5 | 16.7% | 18.0% | 21.4% | 0.84× | 5.56 |
| Burnley & under 1.5 | 11.9% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 1.16× | 7.78 |
| Derby County & over 2.5 | 12.3% | 12.9% | 16.2% | 0.80× | 7.78 |
| Derby County & under 2.5 | 12.2% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 0.99× | 7.78 |
| Burnley & over 3.5 | 10.9% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 1.16× | 7.78 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 11.3% | 12.9% | 7.3% | 1.76× | 7.78 |
| Derby County & under 1.5 | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 1.02× | 12.69 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 0.79× | 20.93 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 0.79× | 20.93 |
| Derby County & over 3.5 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 0.70× | 20.93 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley (1UP) | 59.1% | 58.1% | — | — | 1.72 |
| Derby County (1UP) | 40.6% | 38.7% | — | — | 2.59 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley (2UP) | 45.1% | 49.7% | — | — | 2.01 |
| Derby County (2UP) | 24.5% | 23.7% | — | — | 4.22 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half drawn | 39.8% | 36.2% | — | — | 2.77 |
| Burnley to win 2nd half | 36.6% | 36.1% | — | — | 2.77 |
| Derby County to win 2nd half | 23.7% | 23.0% | — | — | 4.34 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County (+2.5) | 91.7% | 92.1% | 91.9% | 1.00× | 1.09 |
| Derby County (+1.5) | 77.7% | 78.5% | 80.7% | 0.97× | 1.27 |
| Burnley (+0.5) | 75.5% | 78.5% | 71.0% | 1.11× | 1.28 |
| Derby County (+0.5) | 54.9% | 52.4% | 56.5% | 0.93× | 1.91 |
| Burnley (-0.5) | 45.1% | 47.6% | 43.5% | 1.10× | 2.10 |
| Derby County (-0.5) | 24.5% | 21.5% | 29.0% | 0.74× | 4.64 |
| Burnley (-1.5) | 22.3% | 21.5% | 19.3% | 1.11× | 4.64 |
| Burnley (-2.5) | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 0.98× | 12.66 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County to concede | 74.7% | 76.6% | 77.5% | 0.99× | 1.31 |
| Derby County clean sheet | 25.3% | 23.4% | 22.5% | 1.04× | 4.27 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County clean sheet in 1st half | 55.4% | 57.6% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Derby County to concede in 1st half | 44.6% | 42.4% | — | — | 2.36 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County under 6.5 corners | 81.3% | 80.9% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Derby County over 2.5 corners | 76.7% | 75.8% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Derby County under 5.5 corners | 70.4% | 72.3% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Derby County over 3.5 corners | 60.3% | 61.4% | — | — | 1.63 |
| Derby County under 4.5 corners | 56.3% | 56.9% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Derby County over 4.5 corners | 43.7% | 43.1% | — | — | 2.32 |
| Derby County under 3.5 corners | 39.7% | 38.6% | — | — | 2.59 |
| Derby County over 5.5 corners | 29.6% | 27.7% | — | — | 3.61 |
| Derby County under 2.5 corners | 23.3% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.13 |
| Derby County over 6.5 corners | 18.7% | 19.1% | — | — | 5.25 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County under 3.5 goals | 98.4% | 97.6% | 97.8% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Derby County under 2.5 goals | 92.9% | 92.4% | 90.6% | 1.02× | 1.08 |
| Derby County under 1.5 goals | 75.4% | 76.2% | 69.9% | 1.09× | 1.31 |
| Derby County over 0.5 goals | 61.3% | 62.9% | 69.4% | 0.91× | 1.59 |
| Derby County under 0.5 goals | 38.7% | 37.1% | 30.6% | 1.21× | 2.70 |
| Derby County over 1.5 goals | 24.6% | 23.8% | 30.1% | 0.79× | 4.20 |
| Derby County over 2.5 goals | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 0.81× | 13.07 |
| Derby County over 3.5 goals | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.09× | 41.11 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County under 1.5 in 1st half | 94.4% | 94.2% | — | — | 1.06 |
| Derby County under 0.5 in 1st half | 68.4% | 68.0% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Derby County over 0.5 in 1st half | 31.6% | 32.0% | — | — | 3.12 |
| Derby County over 1.5 in 1st half | 5.6% | 5.8% | — | — | 17.28 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley (away no bet) | 59.7% | 57.5% | 61.2% | 0.94× | 1.74 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 40.3% | 42.5% | 38.8% | 1.09× | 2.36 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County even goals | 57.5% | 56.9% | 52.6% | 1.08× | 1.76 |
| Derby County odd goals | 42.5% | 43.1% | 47.4% | 0.91× | 2.32 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 90.1% | 91.9% | — | — | 1.09 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 9.9% | 8.1% | — | — | 12.31 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 55.4% | 59.4% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 44.6% | 40.6% | — | — | 2.46 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 47.9% | 46.1% | — | — | 2.17 |
| Burnley to score 2+ in a row | 33.4% | 28.6% | — | — | 3.50 |
| Derby County to score 2+ in a row | 18.4% | 16.4% | — | — | 6.09 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 15.3% | 16.4% | — | — | 6.11 |
| Burnley to score 3+ in a row | 11.3% | 12.0% | — | — | 8.36 |
| Derby County to score 3+ in a row | 4.2% | 2.7% | — | — | 37.57 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley corners (+3.5) | 88.1% | 84.2% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Burnley corners (+2.5) | 81.8% | 80.0% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Derby County corners (+3.5) | 78.2% | 75.5% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Burnley corners (+1.5) | 73.4% | 69.9% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Derby County corners (+2.5) | 69.4% | 66.8% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Derby County corners (+1.5) | 59.0% | 56.8% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Burnley corners (-1.5) | 41.0% | 43.2% | — | — | 2.32 |
| Burnley corners (-2.5) | 30.6% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Derby County corners (-1.5) | 26.6% | 30.1% | — | — | 3.32 |
| Burnley corners (-3.5) | 21.8% | 24.5% | — | — | 4.08 |
| Derby County corners (-2.5) | 18.2% | 20.0% | — | — | 5.00 |
| Derby County corners (-3.5) | 11.9% | 15.8% | — | — | 6.32 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 41.7% | 37.0% | — | — | 2.70 |
| 9-11 corners | 30.4% | 32.0% | — | — | 3.13 |
| 12+ corners | 27.9% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 79.7% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 72.1% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 69.2% | 67.9% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 63.0% | 62.7% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 58.3% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 52.7% | 52.2% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 47.3% | 47.8% | — | — | 2.09 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 41.7% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 37.0% | 37.3% | — | — | 2.68 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 30.8% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.12 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 27.9% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 20.3% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.28 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 50.4% | — | — | 1.98 |
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 49.6% | — | — | 2.02 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 14.3% | 11.5% | 14.4% | 0.79× | 8.73 |
| 1-0 | 11.9% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 1.03× | 8.73 |
| 0-0 | 11.3% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 1.57× | 8.73 |
| 2-0 | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 1.20× | 13.46 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 0.65× | 13.46 |
| 0-1 | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 0.96× | 13.46 |
| 1-2 | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 0.94× | 13.46 |
| 0-2 | 4.4% | 1.7% | 5.3% | 0.32× | 58.57 |
| 0-3 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.05× | 58.58 |
| 0-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 3.97× | 58.59 |
| 1-3 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.55× | 58.58 |
| 1-4 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.84× | 58.59 |
| 2-2 | 4.2% | 1.7% | 5.2% | 0.33× | 58.57 |
| 2-3 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.05× | 58.59 |
| 2-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 6.62× | 58.59 |
| 3-0 | 4.2% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 0.42× | 58.57 |
| 3-1 | 4.0% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 0.40× | 58.57 |
| 3-2 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.95× | 58.58 |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.99× | 58.59 |
| 3-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 6.62× | 58.59 |
| 4-0 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.99× | 58.58 |
| 4-1 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.99× | 58.58 |
| 4-2 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.21× | 58.59 |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 9.93× | 58.59 |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 19.87× | 58.59 |
| Any other score | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.58× | 58.58 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley leading at HT (DNB) | 63.6% | 66.5% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Derby County leading at HT (DNB) | 36.4% | 33.5% | — | — | 2.98 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley or draw (1X) | 75.5% | 75.6% | 71.0% | 1.06× | 1.32 |
| Burnley or Derby County (12) | 69.6% | 69.6% | 72.4% | 0.96× | 1.44 |
| Derby County or draw (X2) | 54.9% | 52.6% | 56.5% | 0.93× | 1.90 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley or draw at HT | 80.8% | 84.0% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Derby County or draw at HT | 66.6% | 66.1% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Burnley or Derby County at HT | 52.6% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.10 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley or draw (1UP) | 75.5% | 83.8% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Derby County or draw (1UP) | 54.9% | 58.9% | — | — | 1.70 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley or draw in 2nd half | 76.3% | 77.0% | — | — | 1.30 |
| Derby County or draw in 2nd half | 63.4% | 63.9% | — | — | 1.56 |
| Burnley or Derby County in 2nd half | 60.2% | 63.8% | — | — | 1.57 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 66.7% | 69.8% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Neither half drawn | 33.3% | 30.2% | — | — | 3.31 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley (DNB) | 64.8% | 62.9% | 60.0% | 1.05× | 1.59 |
| Derby County (DNB) | 35.2% | 37.1% | 40.0% | 0.93× | 2.70 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley to score first | 52.4% | 54.2% | — | — | 1.85 |
| Derby County to score first | 36.3% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.08 |
| No goal scored | 11.3% | 9.9% | — | — | 10.12 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 52.7% | 51.5% | 45.8% | 1.12× | 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | 48.5% | 54.2% | 0.90× | 2.06 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 44.7% | 41.6% | 37.3% | 1.11× | 2.41 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 33.0% | 34.4% | 39.9% | 0.86× | 2.91 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 14.3% | 12.3% | 14.4% | 0.85× | 8.11 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 0.97× | 11.96 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 90.2% | 89.1% | 89.0% | 1.00× | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 9.8% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 0.99× | 9.16 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 75.9% | 74.9% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 24.1% | 25.1% | — | — | 3.98 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 64.9% | 66.9% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 20.8% | 21.1% | — | — | 4.75 |
| Both score 1st half only | 11.0% | 10.5% | — | — | 9.56 |
| Both score in both halves | 3.3% | 4.9% | — | — | 20.26 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 85.6% | 85.3% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 14.4% | 14.7% | — | — | 6.78 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half without a goal | 53.2% | 53.4% | — | — | 1.87 |
| A goal in each half | 46.8% | 46.6% | — | — | 2.15 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 48.4% | 47.4% | 50.4% | 0.94× | 2.11 |
| 0-1 goals | 31.1% | 30.7% | 25.9% | 1.18× | 3.26 |
| 4-6 goals | 19.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 0.90× | 4.94 |
| 7+ goals | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.31× | 55.34 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County to score exactly 0 | 38.7% | 36.0% | 30.6% | 1.18× | 2.78 |
| Derby County to score exactly 1 | 36.7% | 36.0% | 39.4% | 0.91× | 2.78 |
| Derby County to score exactly 2 | 17.5% | 19.5% | 20.7% | 0.94× | 5.12 |
| Derby County to score 3+ | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 0.90× | 11.80 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley to score exactly 1 | 34.8% | 32.7% | 36.9% | 0.88× | 3.06 |
| Burnley to score exactly 0 | 25.3% | 26.5% | 22.5% | 1.18× | 3.77 |
| Burnley to score exactly 2 | 23.9% | 23.3% | 24.6% | 0.95× | 4.30 |
| Burnley to score 3+ | 16.0% | 18.9% | 16.2% | 1.17× | 5.30 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 47.4% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Burnley leading at HT | 33.4% | 33.9% | — | — | 2.95 |
| Derby County leading at HT | 19.2% | 16.0% | — | — | 6.26 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley -1: 2 | 54.9% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Burnley -1: X | 22.9% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
| Burnley -1: 1 | 22.3% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County (0:1) | 54.9% | 51.2% | 56.5% | 0.91× | 1.95 |
| Draw (0:1) | 22.9% | 24.3% | 24.2% | 1.00× | 4.12 |
| Burnley (0:1) | 22.3% | 24.3% | 19.3% | 1.26× | 4.12 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County (0:2) | 77.7% | 79.4% | 80.7% | 0.98× | 1.26 |
| Draw (0:2) | 14.0% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 0.97× | 9.08 |
| Burnley (0:2) | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 0.95× | 12.97 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County (0:3) | 91.7% | 92.6% | 91.9% | 1.01× | 1.08 |
| Draw (0:3) | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 1.20× | 17.26 |
| Burnley (0:3) | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 0.71× | 42.03 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County (0:4) | 97.5% | 98.1% | 96.6% | 1.02× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.50× | 83.25 |
| Burnley (0:4) | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.16× | 83.40 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley (1:0) | 75.5% | 78.4% | 71.0% | 1.11× | 1.28 |
| Draw (1:0) | 15.3% | 17.0% | 17.3% | 0.99× | 5.88 |
| Derby County (1:0) | 9.1% | 6.9% | 11.9% | 0.58× | 14.46 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley (2:0) | 90.9% | 93.9% | 88.1% | 1.07× | 1.07 |
| Draw (2:0) | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 0.74× | 15.50 |
| Derby County (2:0) | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 0.69× | 44.26 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 44.3% | 46.7% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Halves equal | 29.8% | 26.6% | — | — | 3.77 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 25.9% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley to concede | 61.3% | 63.3% | 69.4% | 0.91× | 1.58 |
| Burnley clean sheet | 38.7% | 36.7% | 30.6% | 1.20× | 2.73 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley clean sheet in 1st half | 68.4% | 68.3% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Burnley to concede in 1st half | 31.6% | 31.7% | — | — | 3.16 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley over 2.5 corners | 83.7% | 81.3% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Burnley under 6.5 corners | 72.0% | 71.5% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Burnley over 3.5 corners | 70.1% | 71.5% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Burnley under 5.5 corners | 59.6% | 57.4% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Burnley over 4.5 corners | 54.9% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Burnley under 4.5 corners | 45.1% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Burnley over 5.5 corners | 40.4% | 42.6% | — | — | 2.35 |
| Burnley under 3.5 corners | 29.9% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| Burnley over 6.5 corners | 28.0% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| Burnley under 2.5 corners | 16.3% | 18.7% | — | — | 5.36 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley under 3.5 goals | 94.9% | 92.3% | 94.8% | 0.97× | 1.08 |
| Burnley under 2.5 goals | 84.0% | 82.2% | 83.8% | 0.98× | 1.22 |
| Burnley over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | 74.2% | 77.5% | 0.96× | 1.35 |
| Burnley under 1.5 goals | 60.1% | 63.4% | 59.4% | 1.07× | 1.58 |
| Burnley over 1.5 goals | 39.9% | 36.6% | 40.6% | 0.90× | 2.73 |
| Burnley under 0.5 goals | 25.3% | 25.8% | 22.5% | 1.14× | 3.88 |
| Burnley over 2.5 goals | 16.0% | 17.8% | 16.2% | 1.10× | 5.60 |
| Burnley over 3.5 goals | 5.1% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 1.50× | 12.91 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley under 1.5 in 1st half | 88.1% | 90.0% | — | — | 1.11 |
| Burnley under 0.5 in 1st half | 55.4% | 57.2% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Burnley over 0.5 in 1st half | 44.6% | 42.8% | — | — | 2.34 |
| Burnley over 1.5 in 1st half | 11.9% | 10.0% | — | — | 9.98 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 55.4% | 56.6% | 48.7% | 1.16× | 1.77 |
| Derby County (home no bet) | 44.6% | 43.4% | 51.3% | 0.85× | 2.31 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley even goals | 53.2% | 50.7% | 50.5% | 1.00× | 1.97 |
| Burnley odd goals | 46.8% | 49.4% | 49.5% | 1.00× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 38.2% | 38.6% | — | — | 2.59 |
| HT 1-0 | 22.1% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.13 |
| HT 0-1 | 14.1% | 11.1% | — | — | 9.03 |
| HT 1-1 | 8.8% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.08 |
| HT 2-0 | 6.6% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.11 |
| Any other HT score | 2.9% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.71 |
| HT 0-2 | 2.7% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.72 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.5% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.74 |
| HT 1-2 | 1.6% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.81 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.5% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.90 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley at HT / Burnley at FT | 26.6% | 26.6% | — | — | 3.76 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 20.4% | 22.1% | — | — | 4.53 |
| Draw at HT / Burnley at FT | 16.5% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.96 |
| Derby County at HT / Derby County at FT | 12.5% | 12.7% | — | — | 7.89 |
| Draw at HT / Derby County at FT | 10.4% | 12.6% | — | — | 7.91 |
| Burnley at HT / Draw at FT | 5.3% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.64 |
| Derby County at HT / Draw at FT | 4.7% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.10 |
| Derby County at HT / Burnley at FT | 2.0% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.20 |
| Burnley at HT / Derby County at FT | 1.5% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.22 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley to score last | 52.6% | 51.9% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Derby County to score last | 36.1% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| No goal scored | 11.3% | 9.3% | — | — | 10.80 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 88.7% | 90.7% | — | — | 1.10 |
| Burnley to lead by 1 at any time | 59.1% | 55.1% | — | — | 1.82 |
| Derby County to lead by 1 at any time | 40.6% | 39.0% | — | — | 2.57 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 40.4% | 39.0% | — | — | 2.57 |
| Burnley to lead by 2 at any time | 27.4% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.97 |
| Derby County to lead by 2 at any time | 13.1% | 10.5% | — | — | 9.55 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 13.1% | 10.5% | — | — | 9.55 |
| Burnley to lead by 3 at any time | 9.9% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.20 |
| Derby County to lead by 3 at any time | 3.3% | 1.6% | — | — | 62.57 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley most corners | 52.2% | 52.9% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Derby County most corners | 36.7% | 38.6% | — | — | 2.59 |
| Corners level | 11.1% | 10.6% | — | — | 9.40 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 85.6% | 87.4% | 88.8% | 0.98× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 80.1% | 83.5% | 83.4% | 1.00× | 1.20 |
| 1-3 goals | 68.2% | 69.0% | 69.1% | 1.00× | 1.45 |
| 2-6 goals | 68.0% | 69.0% | 72.8% | 0.95× | 1.45 |
| 2-5 goals | 65.8% | 69.0% | 70.2% | 0.98× | 1.45 |
| 2-4 goals | 60.3% | 63.5% | 64.8% | 0.98× | 1.58 |
| 2-3 goals | 48.4% | 48.7% | 50.4% | 0.96× | 2.06 |
| 1-2 goals | 47.7% | 48.7% | 44.4% | 1.10× | 2.06 |
| 3-6 goals | 40.0% | 43.6% | 47.1% | 0.93× | 2.29 |
| 3-5 goals | 37.9% | 39.2% | 44.5% | 0.88× | 2.55 |
| 3-4 goals | 32.4% | 35.4% | 39.1% | 0.90× | 2.83 |
| 4-6 goals | 19.6% | 18.6% | 22.4% | 0.83× | 5.37 |
| 4-5 goals | 17.4% | 18.6% | 19.8% | 0.94× | 5.37 |
| 5-6 goals | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 1.08× | 11.44 |
| 7+ goals | 1.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.84× | 39.54 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley never behind | 48.1% | 57.2% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Derby County never behind | 29.6% | 30.1% | — | — | 3.32 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 46.5% | 50.8% | 49.4% | 1.03× | 1.97 |
| Even number of goals | 53.5% | 49.2% | 50.6% | 0.97× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 57.7% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 42.3% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 54.4% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 45.6% | 47.9% | — | — | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 96.9% | 95.5% | 96.0% | 0.99× | 1.05 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 91.4% | 92.3% | 90.6% | 1.02× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 88.7% | 87.7% | 92.7% | 0.95× | 1.14 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 79.5% | 77.4% | 76.3% | 1.01× | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.9% | 66.3% | 74.1% | 0.89× | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.0% | 58.8% | 51.6% | 1.14× | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.0% | 41.2% | 48.4% | 0.85× | 2.43 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 33.7% | 25.9% | 1.30× | 2.97 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.5% | 22.6% | 23.7% | 0.95× | 4.42 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 11.3% | 12.3% | 7.3% | 1.69× | 8.12 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 0.83× | 12.94 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.14× | 22.20 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 99.0% | 97.3% | 98.6% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 96.7% | 97.2% | 95.8% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 90.2% | 92.4% | 89.1% | 1.04× | 1.08 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 74.2% | 72.6% | 68.5% | 1.06× | 1.38 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 56.9% | 55.5% | 65.1% | 0.85× | 1.80 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 43.1% | 44.5% | 34.9% | 1.27× | 2.25 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 25.8% | 27.4% | 31.5% | 0.87× | 3.65 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 9.8% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 0.69× | 13.24 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 0.66× | 36.35 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 1.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.95× | 36.42 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 92.5% | 92.9% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 74.4% | 71.2% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 61.8% | 63.6% | — | — | 1.57 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 38.2% | 36.4% | — | — | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 25.6% | 28.9% | — | — | 3.47 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 7.5% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.00 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 84.5% | 83.0% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 73.6% | 78.0% | — | — | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 60.3% | 61.7% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 39.7% | 38.3% | — | — | 2.61 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 26.4% | 22.0% | — | — | 4.54 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 15.5% | 17.0% | — | — | 5.87 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County not to score in both halves | 86.3% | 85.8% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Burnley not to score in both halves | 75.8% | 78.3% | — | — | 1.28 |
| Burnley to score in both halves | 24.2% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.61 |
| Derby County to score in both halves | 13.7% | 14.2% | — | — | 7.05 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 47.3% | 50.4% | 54.2% | 0.93× | 1.99 |
| Only Burnley scores | 27.4% | 26.2% | 23.4% | 1.12× | 3.82 |
| Only Derby County scores | 14.0% | 11.0% | 15.3% | 0.72× | 9.13 |
| Neither team scores | 11.3% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 1.50× | 9.14 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 27.9% | 25.0% | 25.8% | 0.97× | 4.01 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 20.5% | 22.6% | 24.7% | 0.92× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 19.8% | 17.5% | 18.7% | 0.93× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 11.9% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 0.84× | 8.29 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 11.3% | 12.1% | 7.3% | 1.65× | 8.29 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 1.38× | 13.14 |
| 6 or more goals | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 1.12× | 22.62 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 39.7% | 40.2% | — | — | 2.49 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 33.9% | 33.9% | — | — | 2.95 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 26.4% | 29.6% | — | — | 3.38 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County not to win both halves | 95.3% | 97.1% | — | — | 1.03 |
| Burnley not to win both halves | 87.5% | 88.1% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Burnley to win both halves | 12.5% | 11.9% | — | — | 8.38 |
| Derby County to win both halves | 4.7% | 2.9% | — | — | 34.77 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County to win neither half | 61.9% | 65.3% | — | — | 1.53 |
| Burnley to win either half | 57.5% | 59.4% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Burnley to win neither half | 42.5% | 40.6% | — | — | 2.47 |
| Derby County to win either half | 38.1% | 34.7% | — | — | 2.88 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County not to win to nil | 86.0% | 88.2% | 84.7% | 1.04× | 1.13 |
| Burnley not to win to nil | 72.6% | 75.3% | 76.6% | 0.98× | 1.33 |
| Burnley to win to nil | 27.4% | 24.7% | 23.4% | 1.06× | 4.04 |
| Derby County to win to nil | 14.0% | 11.8% | 15.3% | 0.77× | 8.47 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 30.4% | 27.6% | 27.6% | 1.00× | 3.63 |
| Burnley by 1 | 22.9% | 24.1% | 24.2% | 1.00× | 4.14 |
| Derby County by 1 | 15.3% | 16.9% | 17.3% | 0.98× | 5.90 |
| Burnley by 2 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 1.04× | 8.46 |
| Burnley by 3+ | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 0.90× | 13.80 |
| Derby County by 2 | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 0.83× | 13.81 |
| Derby County by 3+ | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 0.83× | 36.99 |