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Charlton Athletic v Portsmouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Charlton Athletic win
40.3%
model 35.8%
Draw
29.4%
model 29.7%
Portsmouth win
30.3%
model 34.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 14.2%
  2. 0-0 9.3%
  3. 1-0 8.6%
  4. 0-1 8.3%
  5. 2-1 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.546.9% Under 2.553.1%
BTTS yes53.5% BTTS no46.5%
Charlton Athletic 1+72.5% Charlton Athletic 2+37.0%
Portsmouth 1+71.7% Portsmouth 2+36.0%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.26. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
44/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
1-4 goals
Multi goal · usually 83%
78.9% fair odds 1.27
moderate signal · 2094 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Charlton Athletic (2:0)
Handicap 2:0 · usually 88%
83.3% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 326 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Charlton Athletic carry the stronger rating, 1438 Elo against 1409.
  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Charlton Athletic have an estimated 40.3% win probability, against 30.3% for Portsmouth and 29.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.29 for Charlton Athletic and 1.26 for Portsmouth.

Why Charlton Athletic

Charlton Athletic carry the stronger rating, 1438 Elo against 1409. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.29 to 1.26. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Portsmouth can win

Nothing in the data singles out Portsmouth.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Charlton Athletic, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Portsmouth, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Charlton Athletic: 36% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Portsmouth: 57% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Charlton Athletic are the model's most likely outcome at 40.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.2%. Confidence 44/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.29–1.26 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.26–1.15 1-1 15% 43% 51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic to win 37.3% 36.4% 43.5% 0.84× 2.74
Portsmouth to win 32.1% 30.4% 29.0% 1.05× 3.29
Draw 30.6% 30.4% 27.6% 1.10× 3.29
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic & not both score 21.1% 21.9% 23.4% 0.94× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 20.1% 21.9% 20.4% 1.07× 4.57
Portsmouth & not both score 17.9% 17.9% 15.3% 1.17× 5.58
Charlton Athletic & both teams score 16.2% 17.9% 20.2% 0.89× 5.58
Portsmouth & both teams score 14.2% 13.3% 13.8% 0.96× 7.55
Draw & not both score 10.5% 13.2% 7.3% 1.81× 7.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic & under 3.5 28.0% 26.0% 32.5% 0.80× 3.84
Charlton Athletic & over 1.5 27.5% 26.0% 32.5% 0.80× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 25.0% 26.0% 21.6% 1.20× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 25.0% 26.0% 21.6% 1.20× 3.84
Portsmouth & under 3.5 24.6% 21.6% 22.3% 0.97× 4.62
Portsmouth & over 1.5 23.3% 21.6% 21.4% 1.01× 4.62
Charlton Athletic & over 2.5 20.4% 21.6% 26.4% 0.82× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 20.1% 21.6% 20.4% 1.06× 4.62
Charlton Athletic & under 2.5 16.9% 18.0% 17.2% 1.05× 5.56
Portsmouth & over 2.5 17.4% 18.0% 16.2% 1.11× 5.56
Portsmouth & under 2.5 14.8% 12.9% 13.0% 0.99× 7.77
Draw & under 1.5 10.5% 12.9% 7.3% 1.76× 7.78
Charlton Athletic & under 1.5 9.8% 7.9% 11.1% 0.71× 12.69
Charlton Athletic & over 3.5 9.2% 7.9% 11.1% 0.71× 12.69
Portsmouth & under 1.5 8.8% 7.9% 7.7% 1.02× 12.69
Portsmouth & over 3.5 7.6% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 5.6% 7.9% 6.0% 1.31× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 5.6% 7.9% 6.0% 1.31× 12.69
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic (1UP) 53.1% 52.8% 1.89
Portsmouth (1UP) 48.5% 43.0% 2.33
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic (2UP) 37.3% 37.0% 2.70
Portsmouth (2UP) 32.1% 31.0% 3.22
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 39.2% 36.1% 2.77
Charlton Athletic to win 2nd half 31.2% 34.4% 2.91
Portsmouth to win 2nd half 29.6% 26.3% 3.80
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth (+2.5) 94.1% 92.1% 91.9% 1.00× 1.09
Portsmouth (+1.5) 82.9% 82.4% 80.7% 1.02× 1.21
Charlton Athletic (+0.5) 67.9% 68.7% 71.0% 0.97× 1.46
Portsmouth (+0.5) 62.7% 62.9% 56.5% 1.11× 1.59
Charlton Athletic (-0.5) 37.3% 37.1% 43.5% 0.85× 2.69
Portsmouth (-0.5) 32.1% 31.3% 29.0% 1.08× 3.20
Charlton Athletic (-1.5) 17.1% 17.6% 19.3% 0.91× 5.68
Charlton Athletic (-2.5) 5.9% 7.9% 8.1% 0.98× 12.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth to concede 71.6% 76.5% 77.5% 0.99× 1.31
Portsmouth clean sheet 28.4% 23.5% 22.5% 1.04× 4.26
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth clean sheet in 1st half 58.2% 57.7% 1.73
Portsmouth to concede in 1st half 41.8% 42.3% 2.37
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth over 2.5 corners 89.0% 84.9% 1.18
Portsmouth over 3.5 corners 78.5% 75.8% 1.32
Portsmouth over 4.5 corners 65.5% 68.2% 1.47
Portsmouth under 6.5 corners 61.3% 61.4% 1.63
Portsmouth over 5.5 corners 51.7% 52.4% 1.91
Portsmouth under 5.5 corners 48.3% 47.6% 2.10
Portsmouth over 6.5 corners 38.7% 38.6% 2.59
Portsmouth under 4.5 corners 34.5% 31.8% 3.15
Portsmouth under 3.5 corners 21.5% 24.2% 4.14
Portsmouth under 2.5 corners 11.0% 15.1% 6.64
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth under 3.5 goals 97.0% 97.6% 97.8% 1.00× 1.03
Portsmouth under 2.5 goals 89.0% 87.9% 90.6% 0.97× 1.14
Portsmouth over 0.5 goals 68.4% 68.0% 69.4% 0.98× 1.47
Portsmouth under 1.5 goals 68.0% 68.0% 69.9% 0.97× 1.47
Portsmouth over 1.5 goals 32.0% 32.0% 30.1% 1.07× 3.12
Portsmouth under 0.5 goals 31.6% 32.0% 30.6% 1.05× 3.12
Portsmouth over 2.5 goals 11.0% 12.1% 9.5% 1.28× 8.26
Portsmouth over 3.5 goals 3.0% 2.4% 2.2% 1.09× 41.04
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth under 1.5 in 1st half 92.1% 94.1% 1.06
Portsmouth under 0.5 in 1st half 63.1% 64.5% 1.55
Portsmouth over 0.5 in 1st half 36.9% 35.5% 2.81
Portsmouth over 1.5 in 1st half 7.9% 5.9% 17.03
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic (away no bet) 54.9% 51.3% 61.2% 0.84× 1.95
Draw (away no bet) 45.1% 48.7% 38.8% 1.25× 2.05
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth even goals 55.0% 52.8% 52.6% 1.00× 1.90
Portsmouth odd goals 45.0% 47.2% 47.4% 1.00× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 89.1% 88.0% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 10.9% 12.0% 8.36
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 57.5% 59.7% 1.68
Both halves under 1.5 goals 42.5% 40.3% 2.48
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 49.1% 46.1% 2.17
Charlton Athletic to score 2+ in a row 28.8% 25.2% 3.97
Portsmouth to score 2+ in a row 25.0% 19.4% 5.16
Either team to score 3+ in a row 15.4% 16.4% 6.11
Charlton Athletic to score 3+ in a row 8.7% 5.6% 17.83
Portsmouth to score 3+ in a row 6.9% 5.6% 17.98
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth corners (+3.5) 89.4% 84.2% 1.19
Portsmouth corners (+2.5) 83.8% 80.0% 1.25
Portsmouth corners (+1.5) 76.5% 75.5% 1.33
Charlton Athletic corners (+3.5) 72.2% 69.9% 1.43
Charlton Athletic corners (+2.5) 63.1% 61.7% 1.62
Charlton Athletic corners (+1.5) 52.9% 52.3% 1.91
Portsmouth corners (-1.5) 47.1% 47.7% 2.10
Portsmouth corners (-2.5) 36.9% 38.3% 2.61
Portsmouth corners (-3.5) 27.8% 30.1% 3.32
Charlton Athletic corners (-1.5) 23.5% 24.5% 4.08
Charlton Athletic corners (-2.5) 16.2% 20.0% 5.00
Charlton Athletic corners (-3.5) 10.6% 15.8% 6.32
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 38.4% 35.1% 2.85
0-8 corners 31.5% 32.0% 3.13
9-11 corners 30.1% 32.0% 3.13
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 77.8% 76.6% 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 70.3% 72.5% 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 68.5% 67.9% 1.47
Under 11.5 corners 61.6% 62.7% 1.60
Over 9.5 corners 58.3% 57.8% 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 51.9% 52.2% 1.91
Over 10.5 corners 48.1% 47.8% 2.09
Under 9.5 corners 41.7% 42.2% 2.37
Over 11.5 corners 38.4% 37.3% 2.68
Under 8.5 corners 31.5% 32.1% 3.12
Over 12.5 corners 29.7% 27.5% 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 22.2% 23.4% 4.28
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 14.5% 11.5% 14.4% 0.79× 8.73
0-0 10.5% 11.4% 7.3% 1.57× 8.73
0-1 8.8% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.46
1-0 9.8% 7.4% 11.1% 0.67× 13.46
1-2 7.5% 7.4% 7.9% 0.94× 13.46
2-0 7.1% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.46
2-1 8.2% 7.4% 11.4% 0.65× 13.46
0-2 6.0% 7.4% 5.3% 1.39× 13.46
2-2 4.7% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 58.57
0-3 2.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.58
0-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.4% 3.97× 58.59
1-3 2.9% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.58
1-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.6% 2.84× 58.59
2-3 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.58
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.3% 6.62× 58.59
3-0 3.0% 1.7% 4.0% 0.42× 58.58
3-1 3.4% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.57
3-2 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 0.95× 58.58
3-3 0.8% 1.7% 0.9% 1.99× 58.59
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 6.62× 58.59
4-0 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 0.99× 58.59
4-1 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.99× 58.59
4-2 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.21× 58.59
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 9.93× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 19.87× 58.59
Any other score 1.6% 1.7% 2.9% 0.58× 58.58
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic leading at HT (DNB) 55.1% 57.3% 1.75
Portsmouth leading at HT (DNB) 44.9% 42.7% 2.34
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic or Portsmouth (12) 69.4% 69.6% 72.4% 0.96× 1.44
Charlton Athletic or draw (1X) 67.9% 69.6% 71.0% 0.98× 1.44
Portsmouth or draw (X2) 62.7% 63.6% 56.5% 1.12× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic or draw at HT 76.2% 80.0% 1.25
Portsmouth or draw at HT 70.8% 74.6% 1.34
Charlton Athletic or Portsmouth at HT 53.0% 47.6% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic or draw (1UP) 67.9% 76.0% 1.32
Portsmouth or draw (1UP) 62.7% 71.3% 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic or draw in 2nd half 70.4% 73.7% 1.36
Portsmouth or draw in 2nd half 68.8% 65.6% 1.53
Charlton Athletic or Portsmouth in 2nd half 60.8% 63.9% 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 66.1% 69.7% 1.43
Neither half drawn 33.9% 30.3% 3.30
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic (DNB) 53.7% 51.0% 60.0% 0.85× 1.96
Portsmouth (DNB) 46.3% 49.0% 40.0% 1.22× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic to score first 46.7% 45.5% 2.20
Portsmouth to score first 42.8% 41.7% 2.40
No goal scored 10.5% 9.7% 10.35
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 50.5% 51.4% 54.2% 0.95× 1.94
Not both teams to score 49.5% 48.6% 45.8% 1.06× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 42.1% 41.5% 37.3% 1.11× 2.41
Both score & over 2.5 36.0% 38.5% 39.9% 0.97× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 14.5% 12.3% 14.4% 0.85× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 7.4% 8.4% 8.6% 0.97× 11.97
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 88.5% 85.7% 89.0% 0.96× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 11.5% 14.3% 11.0% 1.30× 6.99
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 73.9% 74.6% 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 26.1% 25.4% 3.94
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 62.1% 66.6% 1.50
Both score 2nd half only 22.1% 21.1% 4.74
Both score 1st half only 11.8% 10.5% 9.55
Both score in both halves 3.9% 5.0% 20.12
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 84.3% 82.9% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 15.7% 17.1% 5.86
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 51.4% 53.3% 1.88
A goal in each half 48.6% 46.7% 2.14
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.6% 47.4% 50.4% 0.94× 2.11
0-1 goals 29.1% 26.4% 25.9% 1.02× 3.78
4-6 goals 21.2% 22.8% 22.4% 1.02× 4.38
7+ goals 1.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.32× 55.32
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth to score exactly 1 36.4% 36.0% 39.4% 0.91× 2.78
Portsmouth to score exactly 0 31.6% 33.9% 30.6% 1.11× 2.95
Portsmouth to score exactly 2 21.0% 22.4% 20.7% 1.08× 4.47
Portsmouth to score 3+ 11.0% 12.8% 9.5% 1.36× 7.81
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic to score exactly 1 35.7% 35.6% 36.9% 0.96× 2.81
Charlton Athletic to score exactly 0 28.4% 26.5% 22.5% 1.18× 3.77
Charlton Athletic to score exactly 2 22.5% 23.3% 24.6% 0.95× 4.30
Charlton Athletic to score 3+ 13.4% 14.4% 16.2% 0.89× 6.97
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.0% 52.4% 1.91
Charlton Athletic leading at HT 29.2% 25.4% 3.93
Portsmouth leading at HT 23.8% 20.0% 4.99
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic -1: 2 62.7% 62.4% 1.60
Charlton Athletic -1: X 20.2% 23.6% 4.24
Charlton Athletic -1: 1 17.1% 17.5% 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth (0:1) 62.7% 61.3% 56.5% 1.08× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 20.2% 24.3% 24.2% 1.00× 4.12
Charlton Athletic (0:1) 17.1% 17.8% 19.3% 0.92× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth (0:2) 82.9% 82.8% 80.7% 1.03× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.2% 11.0% 11.3% 0.97× 9.09
Charlton Athletic (0:2) 5.9% 7.7% 8.1% 0.95× 12.99
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth (0:3) 94.1% 92.7% 91.9% 1.01× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.2% 2.4% 4.8% 0.50× 41.95
Charlton Athletic (0:3) 1.6% 2.4% 3.4% 0.71× 42.07
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth (0:4) 98.4% 98.1% 96.6% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.2% 1.2% 2.4% 0.50× 83.33
Charlton Athletic (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.16× 83.43
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic (1:0) 67.9% 69.9% 71.0% 0.98× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 18.4% 17.0% 17.3% 0.99× 5.87
Portsmouth (1:0) 13.8% 12.8% 11.9% 1.08× 7.80
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic (2:0) 86.2% 88.3% 88.1% 1.00× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 9.4% 6.5% 8.7% 0.75× 15.46
Portsmouth (2:0) 4.4% 2.3% 3.3% 0.69× 44.13
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.1% 48.2% 2.08
Halves equal 29.1% 26.6% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 25.8% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic to concede 68.4% 66.5% 69.4% 0.96× 1.50
Charlton Athletic clean sheet 31.6% 33.5% 30.6% 1.09× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic clean sheet in 1st half 63.1% 64.5% 1.55
Charlton Athletic to concede in 1st half 36.9% 35.5% 2.82
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic over 2.5 corners 79.5% 76.1% 1.31
Charlton Athletic under 6.5 corners 78.1% 76.1% 1.31
Charlton Athletic under 5.5 corners 66.6% 67.7% 1.48
Charlton Athletic over 3.5 corners 64.0% 62.0% 1.61
Charlton Athletic under 4.5 corners 52.2% 53.0% 1.89
Charlton Athletic over 4.5 corners 47.8% 47.0% 2.13
Charlton Athletic under 3.5 corners 36.0% 38.0% 2.63
Charlton Athletic over 5.5 corners 33.4% 32.3% 3.10
Charlton Athletic over 6.5 corners 21.9% 23.9% 4.19
Charlton Athletic under 2.5 corners 20.5% 23.9% 4.19
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic under 3.5 goals 96.1% 96.3% 94.8% 1.02× 1.04
Charlton Athletic under 2.5 goals 86.6% 87.2% 83.8% 1.04× 1.15
Charlton Athletic over 0.5 goals 71.6% 74.2% 77.5% 0.96× 1.35
Charlton Athletic under 1.5 goals 64.1% 63.4% 59.4% 1.07× 1.58
Charlton Athletic over 1.5 goals 35.9% 36.6% 40.6% 0.90× 2.73
Charlton Athletic under 0.5 goals 28.4% 25.8% 22.5% 1.15× 3.88
Charlton Athletic over 2.5 goals 13.4% 12.8% 16.2% 0.79× 7.83
Charlton Athletic over 3.5 goals 3.9% 3.7% 5.2% 0.71× 27.39
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic under 1.5 in 1st half 89.7% 90.1% 1.11
Charlton Athletic under 0.5 in 1st half 58.2% 57.3% 1.75
Charlton Athletic over 0.5 in 1st half 41.8% 42.7% 2.34
Charlton Athletic over 1.5 in 1st half 10.3% 9.9% 10.06
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth (home no bet) 51.2% 51.5% 51.3% 1.01× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 48.8% 48.5% 48.7% 0.99× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic even goals 54.0% 50.7% 50.5% 1.00× 1.97
Charlton Athletic odd goals 46.0% 49.3% 49.5% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 37.0% 38.4% 2.60
HT 1-0 19.6% 18.9% 5.29
HT 0-1 16.7% 18.9% 5.30
HT 1-1 9.4% 7.1% 14.07
HT 2-0 5.4% 7.1% 14.13
HT 0-2 3.9% 2.2% 44.63
Any other HT score 2.9% 2.2% 44.71
HT 2-1 2.5% 2.2% 44.74
HT 1-2 2.1% 2.2% 44.77
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.2% 44.90
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic at HT / Charlton Athletic at FT 21.5% 22.1% 4.52
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 20.0% 22.1% 4.53
Portsmouth at HT / Portsmouth at FT 17.0% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Charlton Athletic at FT 13.9% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Portsmouth at FT 13.1% 12.7% 7.89
Charlton Athletic at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.0% 16.63
Portsmouth at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.4% 29.09
Charlton Athletic at HT / Portsmouth at FT 2.1% 3.4% 29.20
Portsmouth at HT / Charlton Athletic at FT 1.9% 3.4% 29.21
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic to score last 46.8% 46.9% 2.13
Portsmouth to score last 42.8% 40.2% 2.49
No goal scored 10.5% 9.0% 11.06
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 89.5% 90.9% 1.10
Charlton Athletic to lead by 1 at any time 53.1% 50.6% 1.98
Portsmouth to lead by 1 at any time 48.5% 44.0% 2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 40.8% 39.0% 2.57
Charlton Athletic to lead by 2 at any time 22.3% 19.6% 5.10
Portsmouth to lead by 2 at any time 18.7% 15.0% 6.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 12.9% 10.5% 9.55
Charlton Athletic to lead by 3 at any time 7.3% 6.5% 15.33
Portsmouth to lead by 3 at any time 5.6% 6.5% 15.42
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth most corners 57.6% 55.4% 1.81
Charlton Athletic most corners 32.3% 33.8% 2.96
Corners level 10.0% 10.6% 9.40
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.9% 87.4% 88.8% 0.98× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.8% 78.6% 83.4% 0.94× 1.27
2-6 goals 69.8% 69.0% 72.8% 0.95× 1.45
1-3 goals 67.1% 69.0% 69.1% 1.00× 1.45
2-5 goals 67.3% 69.0% 70.2% 0.98× 1.45
2-4 goals 61.2% 63.5% 64.8% 0.98× 1.58
2-3 goals 48.6% 48.7% 50.4% 0.96× 2.06
1-2 goals 46.2% 48.7% 44.4% 1.10× 2.06
3-6 goals 42.2% 43.6% 47.1% 0.93× 2.29
3-5 goals 39.7% 39.2% 44.5% 0.88× 2.55
3-4 goals 33.6% 35.4% 39.1% 0.90× 2.83
4-6 goals 21.2% 24.4% 22.4% 1.09× 4.09
4-5 goals 18.7% 18.6% 19.8% 0.94× 5.37
5-6 goals 8.6% 8.7% 8.1% 1.08× 11.43
7+ goals 1.2% 2.5% 1.4% 1.84× 39.53
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic never behind 41.0% 48.1% 2.08
Portsmouth never behind 36.4% 44.8% 2.23
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 46.5% 50.8% 49.4% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 53.5% 49.2% 50.6% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.3% 57.9% 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 42.7% 42.1% 2.38
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.0% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.0% 48.0% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.4% 95.5% 96.0% 0.99× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 90.3% 92.3% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 89.5% 87.7% 92.7% 0.95× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 77.6% 77.4% 76.3% 1.01× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 70.9% 72.5% 74.1% 0.98× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 56.7% 58.8% 51.6% 1.14× 1.70
Over 2.5 goals 43.3% 41.2% 48.4% 0.85× 2.43
Under 1.5 goals 29.1% 27.5% 25.9% 1.06× 3.64
Over 3.5 goals 22.4% 22.6% 23.7% 0.95× 4.42
Under 0.5 goals 10.5% 12.3% 7.3% 1.69× 8.12
Over 4.5 goals 9.7% 7.7% 9.4% 0.83× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 3.6% 4.5% 4.0% 1.14× 22.19
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.8% 97.3% 98.6% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.1% 97.2% 95.8% 1.01× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 88.9% 86.7% 89.1% 0.97× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 71.7% 72.6% 68.5% 1.06× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 59.9% 55.6% 65.1% 0.85× 1.80
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 40.1% 44.4% 34.9% 1.27× 2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 28.3% 27.4% 31.5% 0.87× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 11.1% 13.3% 10.9% 1.21× 7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.9% 2.8% 4.2% 0.66× 36.33
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.2% 2.7% 1.4% 1.95× 36.41
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 91.9% 92.8% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 73.2% 71.1% 1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half 63.0% 63.7% 1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half 37.0% 36.3% 2.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half 26.8% 28.9% 3.46
Over 2.5 in 1st half 8.1% 7.2% 13.92
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 83.1% 82.9% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 75.0% 79.9% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 58.3% 54.9% 1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 41.7% 45.1% 2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 25.0% 20.1% 4.97
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 16.9% 17.1% 5.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth not to score in both halves 81.6% 84.2% 1.19
Charlton Athletic not to score in both halves 78.6% 78.4% 1.28
Charlton Athletic to score in both halves 21.4% 21.6% 4.64
Portsmouth to score in both halves 18.4% 15.8% 6.34
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 50.5% 53.9% 54.2% 0.99× 1.85
Only Charlton Athletic scores 21.1% 22.4% 23.4% 0.96× 4.47
Only Portsmouth scores 17.9% 16.1% 15.3% 1.05× 6.20
Neither team scores 10.5% 10.9% 7.3% 1.50× 9.15
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.6% 25.0% 25.8% 0.97× 4.01
Exactly 3 goals 21.0% 22.6% 24.7% 0.92× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 18.6% 17.5% 18.7% 0.93× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 12.6% 12.1% 14.4% 0.84× 8.29
Exactly 0 goals 10.5% 12.1% 7.3% 1.65× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 6.1% 7.6% 5.5% 1.38× 13.14
6 or more goals 3.6% 4.4% 4.0% 1.12× 22.62
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 41.7% 44.3% 2.26
1 goal in 2nd half 33.4% 33.8% 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 25.0% 23.6% 4.24
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth not to win both halves 92.7% 94.0% 1.06
Charlton Athletic not to win both halves 90.7% 93.9% 1.07
Charlton Athletic to win both halves 9.3% 6.1% 16.43
Portsmouth to win both halves 7.3% 6.0% 16.58
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth to win neither half 53.8% 54.8% 1.83
Charlton Athletic to win either half 51.0% 54.7% 1.83
Charlton Athletic to win neither half 49.0% 45.3% 2.21
Portsmouth to win either half 46.2% 45.2% 2.21
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth not to win to nil 82.1% 83.0% 84.7% 0.98× 1.21
Charlton Athletic not to win to nil 78.9% 78.0% 76.6% 1.02× 1.28
Charlton Athletic to win to nil 21.1% 22.0% 23.4% 0.94× 4.55
Portsmouth to win to nil 17.9% 17.0% 15.3% 1.11× 5.87
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 30.6% 27.6% 27.6% 1.00× 3.62
Charlton Athletic by 1 20.2% 24.1% 24.2% 1.00× 4.14
Portsmouth by 1 18.4% 16.9% 17.3% 0.98× 5.90
Charlton Athletic by 2 11.2% 11.8% 11.3% 1.04× 8.47
Portsmouth by 2 9.4% 7.2% 8.7% 0.84× 13.80
Charlton Athletic by 3+ 5.9% 7.2% 8.1% 0.90× 13.81
Portsmouth by 3+ 4.4% 2.7% 3.3% 0.83× 36.93
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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