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Crawley Town v Cheltenham Town — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · ENG-League Two · 2627

ENG-League Two results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Crawley Town win
35.1%
Draw
25.4%
Cheltenham Town win
39.6%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.31–1.41 1-1 12% 51% 55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town to win 39.5% 36.5% 31.3% 1.16× 2.74
Crawley Town to win 35.1% 36.4% 42.6% 0.85× 2.75
Draw 25.4% 27.9% 26.2% 1.06× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town & not both score 20.6% 21.9% 17.1% 1.28× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 18.9% 17.9% 19.4% 0.92× 5.58
Cheltenham Town & both teams score 19.0% 17.9% 14.4% 1.25× 5.58
Crawley Town & not both score 18.1% 17.9% 23.4% 0.77× 5.58
Crawley Town & both teams score 17.0% 17.9% 19.4% 0.92× 5.58
Draw & not both score 6.5% 8.4% 6.9% 1.20× 11.95
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town & over 1.5 30.1% 30.9% 23.1% 1.34× 3.24
Cheltenham Town & under 3.5 27.7% 26.0% 23.9% 1.09× 3.84
Crawley Town & over 1.5 26.2% 26.0% 30.5% 0.85× 3.84
Crawley Town & under 3.5 25.0% 21.6% 29.9% 0.72× 4.62
Cheltenham Town & over 2.5 23.5% 21.6% 17.4% 1.24× 4.62
Crawley Town & over 2.5 20.6% 21.6% 23.9% 0.90× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 18.9% 18.0% 19.4% 0.93× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 18.5% 18.0% 18.9% 0.95× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.5% 18.0% 18.9% 0.95× 5.56
Cheltenham Town & under 2.5 16.0% 18.0% 14.1% 1.28× 5.56
Crawley Town & under 2.5 14.5% 12.9% 18.9% 0.68× 7.77
Cheltenham Town & over 3.5 11.9% 12.9% 7.6% 1.69× 7.78
Crawley Town & over 3.5 10.1% 12.9% 12.9% 1.00× 7.78
Crawley Town & under 1.5 8.8% 7.9% 12.3% 0.64× 12.69
Cheltenham Town & under 1.5 9.5% 7.9% 8.4% 0.94× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 6.5% 7.9% 6.9% 1.13× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 6.9% 7.9% 7.4% 1.06× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 6.9% 7.9% 7.4% 1.06× 12.69
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town (1UP) 56.0% 57.9% 1.73
Crawley Town (1UP) 52.2% 52.7% 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town (2UP) 39.5% 37.1% 2.69
Crawley Town (2UP) 35.1% 36.8% 2.72
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 35.3% 36.0% 2.78
Cheltenham Town to win 2nd half 35.1% 36.0% 2.78
Crawley Town to win 2nd half 29.6% 26.3% 3.80
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town (+2.5) 94.6% 92.1% 93.4% 0.99× 1.09
Cheltenham Town (+1.5) 84.6% 82.4% 81.3% 1.01× 1.21
Cheltenham Town (+0.5) 64.9% 62.9% 57.4% 1.10× 1.59
Crawley Town (+0.5) 60.5% 62.9% 68.7% 0.92× 1.59
Cheltenham Town (-0.5) 39.5% 37.1% 31.3% 1.19× 2.69
Crawley Town (-0.5) 35.1% 37.1% 42.6% 0.87× 2.70
Crawley Town (-1.5) 15.4% 17.6% 18.7% 0.94× 5.69
Crawley Town (-2.5) 5.4% 7.9% 6.6% 1.19× 12.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town to concede 73.0% 76.5% 76.1% 1.01× 1.31
Cheltenham Town clean sheet 27.0% 23.5% 23.9% 0.98× 4.26
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town clean sheet in 1st half 57.0% 57.7% 1.73
Cheltenham Town to concede in 1st half 43.0% 42.3% 2.36
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town under 3.5 goals 94.6% 92.4% 97.3% 0.95× 1.08
Cheltenham Town under 2.5 goals 83.2% 81.5% 88.5% 0.92× 1.23
Cheltenham Town over 0.5 goals 75.5% 76.2% 69.8% 1.09× 1.31
Cheltenham Town under 1.5 goals 59.0% 59.6% 65.1% 0.92× 1.68
Cheltenham Town over 1.5 goals 41.0% 40.4% 34.9% 1.16× 2.48
Cheltenham Town under 0.5 goals 24.5% 23.8% 30.2% 0.79× 4.20
Cheltenham Town over 2.5 goals 16.8% 18.5% 11.5% 1.61× 5.40
Cheltenham Town over 3.5 goals 5.4% 7.6% 2.7% 2.78× 13.09
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town under 1.5 in 1st half 89.0% 89.6% 1.12
Cheltenham Town under 0.5 in 1st half 57.0% 62.9% 1.59
Cheltenham Town over 0.5 in 1st half 43.0% 37.1% 2.70
Cheltenham Town over 1.5 in 1st half 11.0% 10.4% 9.65
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crawley Town (away no bet) 58.0% 57.5% 62.0% 0.93× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 42.0% 42.5% 38.0% 1.12× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town even goals 53.0% 52.7% 55.9% 0.94× 1.90
Cheltenham Town odd goals 47.0% 47.3% 44.1% 1.07× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 85.4% 87.8% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 14.6% 12.2% 8.18
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 63.4% 57.8% 1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals 36.6% 42.2% 2.37
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 55.1% 55.3% 1.81
Cheltenham Town to score 2+ in a row 32.5% 28.5% 3.51
Crawley Town to score 2+ in a row 29.0% 25.2% 3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row 18.9% 16.4% 6.08
Cheltenham Town to score 3+ in a row 10.5% 11.9% 8.38
Crawley Town to score 3+ in a row 8.7% 5.6% 17.83
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.0% 11.5% 12.1% 0.95× 8.73
0-1 9.5% 7.4% 8.4% 0.88× 13.46
1-0 8.8% 7.4% 12.3% 0.61× 13.46
1-2 8.6% 7.4% 7.8% 0.96× 13.46
0-2 6.5% 7.4% 5.8% 1.28× 13.46
2-1 8.0% 7.4% 8.6% 0.87× 13.46
0-0 6.5% 7.4% 6.9% 1.07× 13.46
2-0 5.7% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.46
2-2 5.6% 7.4% 6.3% 1.18× 13.46
0-3 3.1% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.57
0-4 1.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.59
1-3 4.0% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.57
1-4 1.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.17× 58.58
2-3 2.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 58.58
2-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.3% 5.28× 58.59
3-0 2.5% 1.7% 2.7% 0.62× 58.58
3-1 3.5% 1.7% 5.0% 0.34× 58.57
3-2 2.4% 1.7% 3.2% 0.53× 58.58
3-3 1.1% 1.7% 1.3% 1.32× 58.59
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 10.56× 58.59
4-0 0.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.17× 58.59
4-1 1.1% 1.7% 1.3% 1.32× 58.59
4-2 0.8% 1.7% 0.6% 2.64× 58.59
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.5% 3.52× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 10.56× 58.59
Any other score 2.5% 1.7% 2.1% 0.81× 58.58
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crawley Town leading at HT (DNB) 50.0% 55.4% 1.81
Cheltenham Town leading at HT (DNB) 50.0% 44.6% 2.24
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crawley Town or Cheltenham Town (12) 74.6% 72.1% 73.8% 0.98× 1.39
Cheltenham Town or draw (X2) 64.9% 63.6% 57.4% 1.11× 1.57
Crawley Town or draw (1X) 60.5% 63.5% 68.7% 0.93× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crawley Town or draw at HT 71.8% 74.6% 1.34
Cheltenham Town or draw at HT 71.8% 74.6% 1.34
Crawley Town or Cheltenham Town at HT 56.5% 56.8% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town or draw (1UP) 64.9% 71.5% 1.40
Crawley Town or draw (1UP) 60.5% 71.2% 1.41
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town or draw in 2nd half 70.4% 73.7% 1.36
Crawley Town or draw in 2nd half 64.9% 64.0% 1.56
Crawley Town or Cheltenham Town in 2nd half 64.7% 64.0% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 63.7% 61.6% 1.62
Neither half drawn 36.3% 38.4% 2.61
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town (DNB) 53.0% 50.9% 42.4% 1.20× 1.96
Crawley Town (DNB) 47.0% 49.1% 57.6% 0.85× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town to score first 48.4% 45.6% 2.19
Crawley Town to score first 45.1% 45.4% 2.20
No goal scored 6.5% 7.4% 13.59
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 54.9% 51.5% 52.8% 0.97× 1.94
Not both teams to score 45.1% 48.5% 47.2% 1.03× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 42.9% 41.5% 40.9% 1.02× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 37.0% 38.5% 39.6% 0.97× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.0% 12.3% 12.1% 1.02× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.1% 8.4% 7.8% 1.08× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 84.6% 83.2% 86.3% 0.96× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 15.4% 16.8% 13.7% 1.22× 5.95
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.1% 74.4% 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.9% 25.6% 3.91
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 57.2% 59.8% 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 24.3% 21.2% 4.72
Both score 1st half only 12.9% 10.5% 9.53
Both score in both halves 5.5% 6.7% 15.03
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.5% 82.8% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 18.5% 17.2% 5.82
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 53.6% 53.4% 1.87
A half without a goal 46.4% 46.6% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.3% 47.4% 45.2% 1.05× 2.11
4-6 goals 26.8% 26.4% 26.3% 1.00× 3.79
0-1 goals 24.8% 22.8% 27.3% 0.84× 4.38
7+ goals 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.25× 55.22
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town to score exactly 1 34.5% 33.9% 35.1% 0.97× 2.95
Cheltenham Town to score exactly 0 24.5% 22.4% 30.2% 0.74× 4.47
Cheltenham Town to score exactly 2 24.2% 22.4% 23.6% 0.95× 4.47
Cheltenham Town to score 3+ 16.8% 19.5% 11.5% 1.70× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crawley Town to score exactly 1 35.4% 35.6% 36.7% 0.97× 2.81
Crawley Town to score exactly 0 27.0% 26.5% 23.9% 1.11× 3.77
Crawley Town to score exactly 2 23.1% 23.3% 23.1% 1.01× 4.30
Crawley Town to score 3+ 14.5% 14.4% 16.6% 0.86× 6.96
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.5% 43.2% 2.31
Crawley Town leading at HT 28.2% 25.4% 3.94
Cheltenham Town leading at HT 28.2% 25.4% 3.94
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town -1: 1 60.5% 62.4% 1.60
Cheltenham Town -1: X 21.1% 23.6% 4.24
Cheltenham Town -1: 2 18.4% 17.5% 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town (0:1) 64.9% 61.4% 57.4% 1.07× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 19.7% 17.8% 24.1% 0.74× 5.62
Crawley Town (0:1) 15.4% 17.8% 18.7% 0.95× 5.63
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town (0:2) 84.6% 82.8% 81.3% 1.02× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 10.1% 11.0% 12.3% 0.90× 9.10
Crawley Town (0:2) 5.4% 7.7% 6.6% 1.16× 13.00
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town (0:3) 94.6% 92.7% 93.4% 0.99× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 3.8% 2.4% 4.0% 0.59× 41.97
Crawley Town (0:3) 1.5% 2.4% 2.7% 0.87× 42.07
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town (0:4) 98.5% 98.1% 97.3% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.2% 1.2% 1.9% 0.62× 83.34
Crawley Town (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.24× 83.43
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crawley Town (1:0) 60.5% 65.1% 68.7% 0.95× 1.54
Draw (1:0) 21.1% 21.7% 17.4% 1.24× 4.61
Cheltenham Town (1:0) 18.4% 17.0% 14.1% 1.21× 5.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crawley Town (2:0) 81.6% 84.5% 85.9% 0.98× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 11.6% 10.4% 9.4% 1.11× 9.62
Cheltenham Town (2:0) 6.8% 6.5% 4.8% 1.33× 15.50
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.2% 48.2% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 27.1% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 24.7% 24.3% 4.12
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crawley Town to concede 75.5% 75.8% 69.8% 1.09× 1.32
Crawley Town clean sheet 24.5% 24.2% 30.2% 0.80× 4.14
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crawley Town clean sheet in 1st half 57.0% 62.9% 1.59
Crawley Town to concede in 1st half 43.0% 37.1% 2.70
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crawley Town under 3.5 goals 95.6% 96.3% 95.0% 1.01× 1.04
Crawley Town under 2.5 goals 85.5% 87.2% 83.4% 1.05× 1.15
Crawley Town over 0.5 goals 73.0% 74.2% 76.1% 0.98× 1.35
Crawley Town under 1.5 goals 62.4% 63.4% 60.4% 1.05× 1.58
Crawley Town over 1.5 goals 37.6% 36.6% 39.6% 0.92× 2.73
Crawley Town under 0.5 goals 27.0% 25.8% 23.9% 1.08× 3.88
Crawley Town over 2.5 goals 14.5% 12.8% 16.6% 0.77× 7.83
Crawley Town over 3.5 goals 4.4% 3.7% 5.0% 0.73× 27.37
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crawley Town under 1.5 in 1st half 89.0% 90.0% 1.11
Crawley Town under 0.5 in 1st half 57.0% 57.3% 1.75
Crawley Town over 0.5 in 1st half 43.0% 42.7% 2.34
Crawley Town over 1.5 in 1st half 11.0% 10.0% 10.03
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town (home no bet) 60.9% 60.1% 54.5% 1.10× 1.66
Draw (home no bet) 39.1% 39.9% 45.5% 0.88× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crawley Town even goals 53.7% 50.7% 50.4% 1.00× 1.97
Crawley Town odd goals 46.3% 49.3% 49.6% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 32.5% 32.5% 3.08
HT 0-1 18.3% 18.9% 5.29
HT 1-0 18.3% 18.9% 5.29
HT 1-1 10.2% 11.0% 9.07
HT 0-2 5.1% 7.1% 14.14
HT 2-0 5.1% 7.1% 14.14
Any other HT score 3.9% 2.2% 44.63
HT 1-2 2.9% 2.2% 44.71
HT 2-1 2.9% 2.2% 44.71
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.2% 44.88
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town at HT / Cheltenham Town at FT 21.4% 22.1% 4.53
Crawley Town at HT / Crawley Town at FT 20.1% 22.1% 4.53
Draw at HT / Cheltenham Town at FT 15.4% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.2% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Crawley Town at FT 13.0% 12.7% 7.89
Crawley Town at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.0% 16.63
Cheltenham Town at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.4% 29.09
Crawley Town at HT / Cheltenham Town at FT 2.7% 3.4% 29.18
Cheltenham Town at HT / Crawley Town at FT 2.0% 3.4% 29.20
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town to score last 48.4% 47.0% 2.13
Crawley Town to score last 45.1% 46.8% 2.14
No goal scored 6.5% 7.4% 13.59
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.5% 92.7% 1.08
Cheltenham Town to lead by 1 at any time 56.0% 55.0% 1.82
Crawley Town to lead by 1 at any time 52.2% 50.6% 1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 45.7% 44.0% 2.28
Cheltenham Town to lead by 2 at any time 24.6% 19.7% 5.09
Crawley Town to lead by 2 at any time 21.3% 19.6% 5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 15.7% 14.9% 6.71
Cheltenham Town to lead by 3 at any time 8.7% 6.6% 15.26
Crawley Town to lead by 3 at any time 7.0% 6.5% 15.35
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.8% 87.4% 89.7% 0.98× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.6% 78.6% 82.1% 0.96× 1.27
2-6 goals 73.1% 72.4% 71.4% 1.01× 1.38
2-5 goals 69.4% 69.0% 69.3% 1.00× 1.45
1-3 goals 64.7% 63.5% 65.6% 0.97× 1.58
2-4 goals 61.3% 63.5% 61.7% 1.03× 1.58
3-6 goals 48.9% 48.7% 47.2% 1.03× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.3% 48.7% 45.2% 1.08× 2.06
3-5 goals 45.2% 48.7% 45.1% 1.08× 2.06
1-2 goals 42.6% 43.6% 44.8% 0.97× 2.29
3-4 goals 37.1% 39.2% 37.5% 1.04× 2.55
4-6 goals 26.8% 30.2% 26.3% 1.15× 3.31
4-5 goals 23.1% 24.5% 24.2% 1.01× 4.09
5-6 goals 11.8% 14.8% 9.9% 1.51× 6.74
7+ goals 2.1% 2.5% 1.5% 1.74× 39.48
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town never behind 41.4% 48.1% 2.08
Crawley Town never behind 37.5% 44.8% 2.23
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.9% 50.8% 50.4% 1.01× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.1% 49.2% 49.6% 0.99× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.2% 57.8% 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.8% 42.2% 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.0% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.0% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.2% 92.3% 96.4% 0.96× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 93.5% 92.3% 93.1% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 86.1% 87.7% 88.9% 0.99× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 75.2% 77.4% 72.7% 1.06× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 71.1% 72.5% 72.4% 1.00× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 51.0% 52.4% 48.5% 1.08× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 49.0% 47.6% 51.5% 0.92× 2.10
Over 3.5 goals 28.9% 27.5% 27.6% 0.99× 3.64
Under 1.5 goals 24.8% 22.6% 27.3% 0.83× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 13.9% 12.3% 11.1% 1.11× 8.11
Under 0.5 goals 6.5% 7.7% 6.9% 1.11× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 5.8% 7.7% 3.6% 2.17× 12.96
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.8% 97.3% 98.5% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.7% 92.5% 96.2% 0.96× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 83.7% 81.1% 86.7% 0.94× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 67.3% 67.3% 64.0% 1.05× 1.49
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 62.9% 62.1% 65.1% 0.95× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 37.1% 37.9% 34.9% 1.09× 2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 32.7% 32.7% 36.0% 0.91× 3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 16.3% 18.9% 13.3% 1.41× 5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.3% 7.5% 3.8% 1.96× 13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.2% 2.7% 1.5% 1.85× 36.38
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.5% 89.4% 1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half 69.0% 69.1% 1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half 67.5% 69.0% 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 32.5% 31.0% 3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half 31.0% 30.9% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.5% 10.6% 9.41
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.6% 80.0% 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 78.6% 80.0% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 52.9% 53.1% 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 47.1% 46.9% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 21.4% 20.0% 4.99
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.4% 20.0% 5.00
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crawley Town not to score in both halves 77.4% 78.4% 1.28
Cheltenham Town not to score in both halves 75.5% 78.3% 1.28
Cheltenham Town to score in both halves 24.5% 21.7% 4.61
Crawley Town to score in both halves 22.6% 21.6% 4.63
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 54.9% 54.0% 52.8% 1.02× 1.85
Only Cheltenham Town scores 20.6% 22.3% 17.1% 1.30× 4.48
Only Crawley Town scores 18.1% 16.1% 23.4% 0.69× 6.20
Neither team scores 6.5% 7.2% 6.9% 1.03× 13.95
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.2% 22.7% 24.4% 0.93× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 22.6% 21.0% 1.08× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 18.3% 17.5% 20.5% 0.85× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 15.0% 12.1% 16.6% 0.73× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 8.1% 7.6% 7.8% 0.98× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 6.5% 7.6% 6.9% 1.10× 13.14
6 or more goals 5.8% 7.6% 3.6% 2.14× 13.14
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 47.1% 44.7% 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 32.6% 33.8% 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 20.4% 23.4% 4.28
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crawley Town not to win both halves 91.7% 93.9% 1.06
Cheltenham Town not to win both halves 90.1% 93.9% 1.07
Cheltenham Town to win both halves 9.9% 6.1% 16.39
Crawley Town to win both halves 8.3% 6.1% 16.51
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cheltenham Town to win either half 53.5% 54.8% 1.83
Crawley Town to win neither half 50.5% 54.7% 1.83
Crawley Town to win either half 49.5% 45.3% 2.21
Cheltenham Town to win neither half 46.5% 45.2% 2.21
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crawley Town not to win to nil 81.9% 83.0% 76.6% 1.08× 1.21
Cheltenham Town not to win to nil 79.4% 78.0% 82.9% 0.94× 1.28
Cheltenham Town to win to nil 20.6% 22.0% 17.1% 1.28× 4.55
Crawley Town to win to nil 18.1% 17.0% 23.4% 0.73× 5.87
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.4% 27.8% 26.2% 1.06× 3.59
Cheltenham Town by 1 21.1% 24.1% 17.4% 1.38× 4.14
Crawley Town by 1 19.7% 16.9% 24.1% 0.70× 5.90
Cheltenham Town by 2 11.6% 11.8% 9.4% 1.26× 8.46
Crawley Town by 2 10.1% 11.8% 12.3% 0.96× 8.47
Cheltenham Town by 3+ 6.8% 7.2% 4.8% 1.49× 13.81
Crawley Town by 3+ 5.4% 7.2% 6.6% 1.09× 13.81
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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