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Cusco FC v Deportivo Moquegua — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Cusco FC win
59.2%
model 63.3%
Draw
22.5%
model 20.9%
Deportivo Moquegua win
18.3%
model 15.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (1,523 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 12.4%
  2. 2-0 11.8%
  3. 1-1 9.9%
  4. 2-1 9.8%
  5. 3-0 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.552.1% Under 2.547.9%
BTTS yes48.0% BTTS no52.0%
Cusco FC 1+85.4% Cusco FC 2+57.4%
Deportivo Moquegua 1+56.5% Deportivo Moquegua 2+20.3%

Expected goals 1.93 – 0.83. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Cusco FC (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 50%
63.5% fair odds 1.58
moderate signal · 877 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Cusco FC or draw (1UP)
Double chance 1UP
84.3% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 419 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Cusco FC carry the stronger rating, 1547 Elo against 1446.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Cusco FC have an estimated 59.2% win probability, against 22.5% for the draw and 18.3% for Deportivo Moquegua. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.93 for Cusco FC and 0.83 for Deportivo Moquegua.

Why Cusco FC

Cusco FC carry the stronger rating, 1547 Elo against 1446. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.5%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Deportivo Moquegua can win

Nothing in the data singles out Deportivo Moquegua.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Cusco FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Deportivo Moquegua, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cusco FC: 55% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Deportivo Moquegua: 41% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 19.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Cusco FC are the model's most likely outcome at 59.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 12.4%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.93–0.83 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.96–0.77 1-0 13% 52% 46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC to win 65.6% 64.9% 50.0% 1.30× 1.54
Draw 20.3% 24.4% 25.1% 0.97× 4.09
Deportivo Moquegua to win 14.1% 13.3% 25.1% 0.53× 7.49
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC & not both score 39.9% 33.3% 26.5% 1.25× 3.01
Cusco FC & both teams score 25.7% 25.2% 23.6% 1.06× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 14.1% 13.3% 17.5% 0.76× 7.54
Deportivo Moquegua & not both score 7.8% 8.4% 12.2% 0.69× 11.93
Draw & not both score 6.3% 8.4% 7.8% 1.07× 11.93
Deportivo Moquegua & both teams score 6.3% 8.4% 13.1% 0.64× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC & over 1.5 52.6% 48.7% 38.2% 1.28× 2.05
Cusco FC & under 3.5 43.3% 40.3% 33.8% 1.19× 2.48
Cusco FC & over 2.5 40.1% 40.3% 30.9% 1.30× 2.48
Cusco FC & under 2.5 25.4% 26.0% 19.3% 1.35× 3.84
Cusco FC & over 3.5 22.3% 21.6% 16.4% 1.32× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 15.9% 18.0% 18.9% 0.95× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 15.9% 18.0% 18.9% 0.95× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 14.1% 12.9% 17.5% 0.74× 7.77
Cusco FC & under 1.5 12.9% 12.9% 12.0% 1.07× 7.77
Deportivo Moquegua & under 3.5 11.5% 12.9% 19.1% 0.67× 7.77
Deportivo Moquegua & over 1.5 8.9% 7.9% 17.3% 0.46× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 6.3% 7.9% 7.8% 1.01× 12.70
Deportivo Moquegua & over 2.5 7.0% 7.9% 14.4% 0.55× 12.70
Deportivo Moquegua & under 2.5 7.2% 7.9% 10.9% 0.72× 12.70
Deportivo Moquegua & under 1.5 5.2% 7.9% 8.0% 0.98× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 4.4% 4.8% 6.4% 0.75× 20.92
Draw & over 3.5 4.4% 4.8% 6.4% 0.75× 20.92
Deportivo Moquegua & over 3.5 2.7% 4.8% 6.2% 0.77× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (1UP) 75.6% 78.7% 1.27
Deportivo Moquegua (1UP) 29.8% 27.3% 3.66
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (2UP) 65.6% 68.4% 1.46
Deportivo Moquegua (2UP) 14.1% 13.6% 7.34
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC to win 2nd half 52.1% 52.1% 1.92
2nd half drawn 32.5% 34.3% 2.92
Deportivo Moquegua to win 2nd half 15.4% 19.0% 5.27
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (+0.5) 85.9% 88.5% 74.9% 1.18× 1.13
Deportivo Moquegua (+2.5) 80.0% 78.5% 88.5% 0.89× 1.27
Cusco FC (-0.5) 65.6% 68.7% 50.0% 1.37× 1.46
Deportivo Moquegua (+1.5) 59.8% 57.0% 75.3% 0.76× 1.75
Cusco FC (-1.5) 40.2% 43.0% 24.7% 1.74× 2.33
Deportivo Moquegua (+0.5) 34.4% 31.3% 50.0% 0.63× 3.19
Cusco FC (-2.5) 20.0% 21.5% 11.5% 1.88× 4.65
Deportivo Moquegua (-0.5) 14.1% 11.5% 25.1% 0.46× 8.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportivo Moquegua to concede 86.0% 86.4% 80.2% 1.08× 1.16
Deportivo Moquegua clean sheet 14.0% 13.6% 19.8% 0.69× 7.36
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportivo Moquegua to concede in 1st half 57.0% 57.9% 1.73
Deportivo Moquegua clean sheet in 1st half 43.0% 42.1% 2.37
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportivo Moquegua under 6.5 corners 93.6% 89.3% 1.12
Deportivo Moquegua under 5.5 corners 87.9% 84.9% 1.18
Deportivo Moquegua under 4.5 corners 78.5% 75.8% 1.32
Deportivo Moquegua under 3.5 corners 64.2% 61.4% 1.63
Deportivo Moquegua over 2.5 corners 54.7% 52.4% 1.91
Deportivo Moquegua under 2.5 corners 45.3% 47.6% 2.10
Deportivo Moquegua over 3.5 corners 35.8% 38.6% 2.59
Deportivo Moquegua over 4.5 corners 21.5% 24.2% 4.14
Deportivo Moquegua over 5.5 corners 12.1% 15.1% 6.63
Deportivo Moquegua over 6.5 corners 6.4% 10.7% 9.31
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportivo Moquegua under 3.5 goals 99.2% 97.6% 97.5% 1.00× 1.03
Deportivo Moquegua under 2.5 goals 95.6% 97.5% 92.0% 1.06× 1.03
Deportivo Moquegua under 1.5 goals 81.8% 81.4% 71.6% 1.14× 1.23
Deportivo Moquegua over 0.5 goals 53.8% 53.7% 65.8% 0.82× 1.86
Deportivo Moquegua under 0.5 goals 46.2% 46.3% 34.2% 1.36× 2.16
Deportivo Moquegua over 1.5 goals 18.2% 18.6% 28.4% 0.65× 5.38
Deportivo Moquegua over 2.5 goals 4.4% 2.5% 8.0% 0.31× 40.75
Deportivo Moquegua over 3.5 goals 0.8% 2.4% 2.5% 0.96× 40.94
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportivo Moquegua under 1.5 in 1st half 96.1% 95.7% 1.05
Deportivo Moquegua under 0.5 in 1st half 73.4% 68.7% 1.46
Deportivo Moquegua over 0.5 in 1st half 26.6% 31.3% 3.19
Deportivo Moquegua over 1.5 in 1st half 3.9% 4.3% 23.18
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (away no bet) 76.3% 73.6% 66.6% 1.11× 1.36
Draw (away no bet) 23.7% 26.4% 33.4% 0.79× 3.79
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportivo Moquegua even goals 60.7% 59.0% 56.9% 1.04× 1.70
Deportivo Moquegua odd goals 39.3% 41.0% 43.1% 0.95× 2.44
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 85.0% 83.2% 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 15.0% 16.8% 5.94
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 63.8% 58.0% 1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals 36.2% 42.0% 2.38
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 59.8% 55.4% 1.81
Cusco FC to score 2+ in a row 52.1% 51.4% 1.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row 26.2% 25.1% 3.98
Cusco FC to score 3+ in a row 24.4% 19.5% 5.12
Deportivo Moquegua to score 2+ in a row 11.9% 12.1% 8.27
Deportivo Moquegua to score 3+ in a row 2.0% 2.6% 39.19
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC corners (+3.5) 95.1% 93.9% 1.06
Cusco FC corners (+2.5) 91.3% 88.6% 1.13
Cusco FC corners (+1.5) 85.4% 84.2% 1.19
Deportivo Moquegua corners (+3.5) 67.1% 66.8% 1.50
Deportivo Moquegua corners (+2.5) 56.4% 56.8% 1.76
Cusco FC corners (-1.5) 55.3% 56.8% 1.76
Deportivo Moquegua corners (+1.5) 44.7% 43.2% 2.31
Cusco FC corners (-2.5) 43.6% 43.2% 2.31
Cusco FC corners (-3.5) 32.9% 33.2% 3.01
Deportivo Moquegua corners (-1.5) 14.6% 15.8% 6.31
Deportivo Moquegua corners (-2.5) 8.7% 11.4% 8.81
Deportivo Moquegua corners (-3.5) 4.9% 6.1% 16.51
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 57.3% 47.9% 2.09
9-11 corners 25.4% 31.8% 3.15
12+ corners 17.3% 21.7% 4.61
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 87.9% 82.8% 1.21
Under 11.5 corners 82.7% 79.8% 1.25
Under 10.5 corners 75.8% 76.6% 1.31
Under 9.5 corners 67.3% 67.9% 1.47
Under 8.5 corners 57.3% 57.8% 1.73
Over 7.5 corners 53.8% 52.3% 1.91
Under 7.5 corners 46.2% 47.8% 2.09
Over 8.5 corners 42.7% 42.2% 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 32.7% 32.1% 3.12
Over 10.5 corners 24.2% 23.4% 4.27
Over 11.5 corners 17.3% 20.2% 4.96
Over 12.5 corners 12.1% 17.2% 5.81
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 12.9% 11.4% 12.0% 0.95× 8.73
2-0 12.5% 11.4% 7.5% 1.54× 8.74
1-1 9.6% 7.4% 11.3% 0.66× 13.47
2-1 9.7% 7.4% 9.8% 0.76× 13.47
3-0 8.2% 7.4% 5.1% 1.46× 13.47
0-0 6.3% 7.4% 7.8% 0.95× 13.47
0-1 5.2% 7.4% 8.0% 0.93× 13.47
3-1 6.3% 7.4% 5.3% 1.41× 13.47
Any other score 5.0% 7.4% 2.7% 2.72× 13.47
0-2 1.9% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.51
0-3 0.5% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 58.52
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.13× 58.52
1-2 3.8% 1.7% 7.5% 0.23× 58.50
1-3 1.0% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.52
1-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.88× 58.52
2-2 3.7% 1.7% 5.6% 0.30× 58.50
2-3 1.0% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.52
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.88× 58.52
3-2 2.4% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.51
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.88× 58.52
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.35× 58.52
4-0 4.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.04× 58.50
4-1 3.1% 1.7% 2.5% 0.67× 58.51
4-2 1.2% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 58.52
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.4% 4.70× 58.52
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 9.40× 58.52
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC leading at HT (DNB) 78.3% 78.2% 1.28
Deportivo Moquegua leading at HT (DNB) 21.7% 21.8% 4.59
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC or draw (1X) 85.9% 86.7% 74.9% 1.16× 1.15
Cusco FC or Deportivo Moquegua (12) 79.7% 75.6% 74.9% 1.01× 1.32
Deportivo Moquegua or draw (X2) 34.4% 35.1% 50.0% 0.70× 2.85
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC or draw at HT 87.1% 88.2% 1.13
Cusco FC or Deportivo Moquegua at HT 59.7% 56.6% 1.77
Deportivo Moquegua or draw at HT 53.2% 47.7% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC or draw (1UP) 85.9% 91.5% 1.09
Deportivo Moquegua or draw (1UP) 34.4% 39.2% 2.55
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC or draw in 2nd half 84.7% 81.0% 1.23
Cusco FC or Deportivo Moquegua in 2nd half 67.5% 65.7% 1.52
Deportivo Moquegua or draw in 2nd half 47.9% 47.9% 2.09
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 59.9% 58.2% 1.72
Neither half drawn 40.1% 41.8% 2.39
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (DNB) 82.3% 80.5% 66.6% 1.21× 1.24
Deportivo Moquegua (DNB) 17.7% 19.5% 33.4% 0.58× 5.13
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC to score first 67.2% 69.5% 1.44
Deportivo Moquegua to score first 26.5% 28.1% 3.56
No goal scored 6.3% 7.5% 13.41
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 53.9% 51.5% 46.2% 1.11× 1.94
Both teams to score 46.1% 48.5% 53.8% 0.90× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 38.9% 38.5% 37.6% 1.02× 2.60
Both score & over 2.5 36.4% 38.5% 42.7% 0.90× 2.60
Not both score & over 2.5 15.1% 21.7% 8.7% 2.49× 4.61
Both score & under 2.5 9.6% 8.4% 11.3% 0.74× 11.94
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.4% 85.7% 85.6% 1.00× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.6% 14.3% 14.4% 1.00× 6.99
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 75.1% 75.3% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 24.9% 24.7% 4.05
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 63.7% 66.9% 1.49
Both score 2nd half only 21.1% 20.9% 4.79
Both score 1st half only 11.3% 10.5% 9.50
Both score in both halves 3.8% 4.9% 20.32
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 84.9% 82.9% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 15.1% 17.1% 5.85
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 54.3% 53.5% 1.87
A half without a goal 45.7% 46.5% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.2% 47.4% 44.2% 1.07× 2.11
4-6 goals 27.2% 26.4% 26.9% 0.98× 3.78
0-1 goals 24.4% 22.8% 27.5% 0.83× 4.38
7+ goals 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.00× 55.03
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportivo Moquegua to score exactly 0 46.2% 42.9% 34.2% 1.25× 2.33
Deportivo Moquegua to score exactly 1 35.7% 36.0% 37.6% 0.96× 2.78
Deportivo Moquegua to score exactly 2 13.8% 12.8% 20.5% 0.62× 7.80
Deportivo Moquegua to score 3+ 4.4% 4.5% 8.0% 0.57× 22.01
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC to score 3+ 31.3% 32.6% 22.5% 1.45× 3.06
Cusco FC to score exactly 1 27.6% 26.5% 32.9% 0.81× 3.77
Cusco FC to score exactly 2 27.1% 26.5% 25.1% 1.06× 3.77
Cusco FC to score exactly 0 14.0% 14.4% 19.8% 0.72× 6.97
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC leading at HT 46.8% 52.3% 1.91
Draw at HT 40.3% 43.4% 2.31
Deportivo Moquegua leading at HT 12.9% 11.8% 8.46
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC -1: 1 40.2% 42.7% 2.34
Cusco FC -1: 2 34.4% 30.1% 3.32
Cusco FC -1: X 25.4% 26.5% 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (0:1) 40.2% 42.6% 24.7% 1.72× 2.35
Deportivo Moquegua (0:1) 34.4% 30.1% 50.0% 0.60× 3.33
Draw (0:1) 25.4% 27.0% 25.5% 1.06× 3.70
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportivo Moquegua (0:2) 59.8% 63.0% 75.3% 0.84× 1.59
Draw (0:2) 20.1% 20.3% 13.5% 1.51× 4.92
Cusco FC (0:2) 20.0% 20.3% 11.5% 1.77× 4.92
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportivo Moquegua (0:3) 80.0% 80.6% 88.5% 0.91× 1.24
Draw (0:3) 11.8% 10.0% 7.6% 1.31× 9.99
Cusco FC (0:3) 8.3% 5.8% 4.0% 1.46× 17.16
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportivo Moquegua (0:4) 91.7% 94.6% 96.0% 0.99× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 5.4% 4.6% 2.5% 1.82× 21.64
Cusco FC (0:4) 2.9% 1.2% 1.6% 0.73× 83.27
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (1:0) 85.9% 86.3% 74.9% 1.15× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 10.1% 12.8% 17.6% 0.73× 7.81
Deportivo Moquegua (1:0) 4.0% 3.2% 7.6% 0.42× 31.46
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (2:0) 96.0% 96.9% 92.4% 1.05× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 3.1% 2.3% 5.6% 0.40× 44.31
Deportivo Moquegua (2:0) 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 1.03× 44.46
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.5% 48.1% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 27.9% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 24.6% 24.3% 4.11
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC to concede 53.8% 53.1% 65.8% 0.81× 1.88
Cusco FC clean sheet 46.2% 46.9% 34.2% 1.37× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC clean sheet in 1st half 73.4% 68.4% 1.46
Cusco FC to concede in 1st half 26.6% 31.6% 3.16
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC over 2.5 corners 81.5% 81.3% 1.23
Cusco FC under 6.5 corners 71.3% 71.5% 1.40
Cusco FC over 3.5 corners 68.1% 67.8% 1.48
Cusco FC under 5.5 corners 59.8% 57.4% 1.74
Cusco FC over 4.5 corners 53.7% 53.1% 1.89
Cusco FC under 4.5 corners 46.3% 46.9% 2.13
Cusco FC over 5.5 corners 40.2% 42.6% 2.35
Cusco FC under 3.5 corners 31.9% 32.2% 3.10
Cusco FC over 6.5 corners 28.7% 28.5% 3.51
Cusco FC under 2.5 corners 18.5% 18.7% 5.36
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC under 3.5 goals 86.4% 87.2% 92.4% 0.94× 1.15
Cusco FC over 0.5 goals 86.0% 87.2% 80.2% 1.09× 1.15
Cusco FC under 2.5 goals 68.7% 67.9% 77.5% 0.88× 1.47
Cusco FC over 1.5 goals 58.4% 58.8% 47.5% 1.24× 1.70
Cusco FC under 1.5 goals 41.6% 41.2% 52.5% 0.78× 2.43
Cusco FC over 2.5 goals 31.3% 32.1% 22.5% 1.43× 3.11
Cusco FC under 0.5 goals 14.0% 12.8% 19.8% 0.64× 7.83
Cusco FC over 3.5 goals 13.6% 12.8% 7.6% 1.67× 7.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC under 1.5 in 1st half 79.3% 77.2% 1.30
Cusco FC over 0.5 in 1st half 57.0% 57.5% 1.74
Cusco FC under 0.5 in 1st half 43.0% 42.5% 2.35
Cusco FC over 1.5 in 1st half 20.7% 22.8% 4.38
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 59.0% 56.7% 50.0% 1.13× 1.76
Deportivo Moquegua (home no bet) 41.0% 43.3% 50.0% 0.87× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC even goals 51.0% 50.6% 50.5% 1.00× 1.98
Cusco FC odd goals 49.0% 49.4% 49.5% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.5% 32.1% 3.12
HT 1-0 26.7% 29.0% 3.44
HT 2-0 11.2% 11.0% 9.12
HT 0-1 9.8% 7.1% 14.13
HT 1-1 8.2% 7.1% 14.16
Any other HT score 5.8% 7.0% 14.20
HT 2-1 3.5% 2.3% 43.81
HT 0-2 1.5% 2.3% 43.96
HT 1-2 1.3% 2.3% 43.97
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.3% 44.03
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC at HT / Cusco FC at FT 41.8% 44.1% 2.27
Draw at HT / Cusco FC at FT 21.1% 21.7% 4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.9% 12.7% 7.90
Deportivo Moquegua at HT / Deportivo Moquegua at FT 6.8% 6.0% 16.60
Draw at HT / Deportivo Moquegua at FT 6.3% 6.0% 16.61
Cusco FC at HT / Draw at FT 4.0% 3.5% 28.83
Deportivo Moquegua at HT / Draw at FT 3.5% 3.5% 28.85
Deportivo Moquegua at HT / Cusco FC at FT 2.6% 3.5% 28.89
Cusco FC at HT / Deportivo Moquegua at FT 1.0% 3.5% 28.95
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC to score last 67.2% 70.1% 1.43
Deportivo Moquegua to score last 26.5% 26.9% 3.72
No goal scored 6.3% 7.5% 13.41
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.7% 92.7% 1.08
Cusco FC to lead by 1 at any time 75.6% 78.1% 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 52.7% 50.7% 1.97
Cusco FC to lead by 2 at any time 45.8% 44.0% 2.27
Deportivo Moquegua to lead by 1 at any time 29.8% 25.4% 3.94
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 23.9% 19.6% 5.10
Cusco FC to lead by 3 at any time 22.5% 19.6% 5.11
Deportivo Moquegua to lead by 2 at any time 7.1% 6.6% 15.25
Deportivo Moquegua to lead by 3 at any time 1.4% 1.5% 65.24
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC most corners 66.9% 64.5% 1.55
Deportivo Moquegua most corners 22.8% 27.1% 3.69
Corners level 10.3% 10.6% 9.40
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.8% 87.4% 87.1% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.5% 78.6% 78.0% 1.01× 1.27
2-6 goals 73.4% 72.4% 70.9% 1.02× 1.38
2-5 goals 69.6% 69.0% 67.5% 1.02× 1.45
1-3 goals 64.4% 63.4% 63.8% 0.99× 1.58
2-4 goals 61.3% 63.4% 58.4% 1.09× 1.58
3-6 goals 49.3% 48.7% 49.6% 0.98× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.2% 48.7% 44.2% 1.10× 2.06
3-5 goals 45.6% 48.7% 46.2% 1.05× 2.06
1-2 goals 42.2% 43.6% 41.1% 1.06× 2.30
3-4 goals 37.3% 39.2% 37.1% 1.06× 2.55
4-6 goals 27.2% 30.2% 26.9% 1.12× 3.31
4-5 goals 23.4% 24.5% 23.5% 1.04× 4.09
5-6 goals 12.1% 14.9% 12.7% 1.17× 6.73
7+ goals 2.2% 2.5% 1.8% 1.40× 39.42
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC never behind 63.9% 68.0% 1.47
Deportivo Moquegua never behind 18.1% 18.7% 5.34
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.8% 50.8% 46.9% 1.08× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.2% 49.2% 53.1% 0.93× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.9% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 45.1% 48.4% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.0% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.0% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.1% 92.3% 94.7% 0.97× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 93.7% 92.3% 92.2% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 85.8% 87.6% 85.6% 1.02× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 75.6% 77.4% 72.5% 1.07× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 70.6% 72.5% 71.5% 1.01× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 51.5% 52.4% 51.3% 1.02× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 48.5% 47.6% 48.7% 0.98× 2.10
Over 3.5 goals 29.4% 27.5% 28.5% 0.96× 3.64
Under 1.5 goals 24.4% 22.6% 27.5% 0.82× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 14.2% 12.4% 14.4% 0.86× 8.09
Under 0.5 goals 6.3% 7.7% 7.8% 0.99× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 5.9% 7.7% 5.3% 1.46× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.7% 97.2% 98.1% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.5% 92.5% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 83.2% 81.1% 83.3% 0.97× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 67.8% 67.4% 65.1% 1.03× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 62.3% 62.1% 63.1% 0.98× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 37.7% 37.9% 36.9% 1.03× 2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 32.2% 32.6% 34.9% 0.94× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 16.8% 18.9% 16.7% 1.13× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.5% 7.5% 5.8% 1.30× 13.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.3% 2.8% 1.9% 1.46× 36.35
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.9% 89.1% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.5% 69.2% 1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half 68.0% 69.1% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.0% 30.9% 3.24
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.5% 30.8% 3.24
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.1% 10.9% 9.18
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.5% 80.0% 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 78.8% 80.0% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 53.1% 53.4% 1.87
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 46.9% 46.6% 2.15
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 21.2% 20.0% 4.99
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.5% 20.0% 5.00
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportivo Moquegua not to score in both halves 90.1% 89.7% 1.11
Cusco FC not to score in both halves 61.6% 63.4% 1.58
Cusco FC to score in both halves 38.4% 36.6% 2.73
Deportivo Moquegua to score in both halves 9.9% 10.3% 9.74
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 46.1% 50.4% 53.8% 0.94× 1.99
Only Cusco FC scores 39.9% 39.9% 26.5% 1.50× 2.51
Only Deportivo Moquegua scores 7.8% 7.2% 12.2% 0.59× 13.91
Neither team scores 6.3% 7.2% 7.8% 0.92× 13.92
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.1% 22.6% 21.5% 1.06× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 22.6% 22.9% 0.99× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 18.2% 17.4% 19.8% 0.88× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 15.1% 17.4% 14.4% 1.21× 5.74
Exactly 5 goals 8.3% 7.6% 9.3% 0.82× 13.09
Exactly 0 goals 6.3% 7.6% 7.8% 0.98× 13.10
6 or more goals 5.9% 7.6% 5.3% 1.45× 13.10
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 46.9% 44.7% 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 32.7% 33.6% 2.97
No goals in 2nd half 20.5% 23.0% 4.36
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportivo Moquegua not to win both halves 98.0% 97.2% 1.03
Cusco FC not to win both halves 75.7% 75.1% 1.33
Cusco FC to win both halves 24.3% 24.9% 4.02
Deportivo Moquegua to win both halves 2.0% 2.8% 36.24
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC to win either half 74.6% 73.2% 1.37
Deportivo Moquegua to win neither half 73.7% 73.1% 1.37
Deportivo Moquegua to win either half 26.3% 26.9% 3.72
Cusco FC to win neither half 25.4% 26.8% 3.73
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportivo Moquegua not to win to nil 92.2% 92.0% 87.8% 1.05× 1.09
Cusco FC not to win to nil 60.1% 66.7% 73.5% 0.91× 1.50
Cusco FC to win to nil 39.9% 33.3% 26.5% 1.25× 3.00
Deportivo Moquegua to win to nil 7.8% 8.0% 12.2% 0.65× 12.55
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC by 1 25.4% 27.8% 25.5% 1.09× 3.60
Draw 20.3% 24.1% 25.1% 0.96× 4.14
Cusco FC by 2 20.1% 24.1% 13.5% 1.79× 4.14
Cusco FC by 3+ 20.0% 24.1% 11.5% 2.11× 4.14
Deportivo Moquegua by 1 10.1% 11.8% 17.6% 0.67× 8.47
Deportivo Moquegua by 2 3.1% 2.7% 5.6% 0.48× 37.04
Deportivo Moquegua by 3+ 0.9% 2.7% 2.2% 1.24× 37.11
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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