Deportivo La Guaira v UCV FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 September 2026 · FIFA:2000000073 · 2627
FIFA:2000000073 results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.2%
- 1-0 10.9%
- 2-1 9.2%
- 2-0 8.2%
- 0-1 8.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 48.9% | Under 2.5 | 51.1% |
| BTTS yes | 52.5% | BTTS no | 47.5% |
| Deportivo La Guaira 1+ | 77.8% | Deportivo La Guaira 2+ | 44.4% |
| UCV FC 1+ | 67.5% | UCV FC 2+ | 31.0% |
Expected goals 1.51 – 1.12. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Deportivo La Guaira.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 15/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Deportivo La Guaira have only 6 matches on record.
- UCV FC have only 8 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Deportivo La Guaira have an estimated 46.0% win probability, against 28.3% for UCV FC and 25.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.50 for Deportivo La Guaira and 1.12 for UCV FC.
Why Deportivo La Guaira
Nothing in the data singles out Deportivo La Guaira.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 25.7%.
Why UCV FC can win
UCV FC carry the stronger rating, 1515 Elo against 1462.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Deportivo La Guaira, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for UCV FC, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Deportivo La Guaira: 45% possession, 9.2 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. UCV FC: 38% possession, 10.0 shots a match, 20.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Deportivo La Guaira are the model's most likely outcome at 46.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%. Confidence 16/100, data quality 15/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.51–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.