Deportivo Maldonado v Montevideo Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · URU-Primera Division · 2627

URU-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Deportivo Maldonado

17:00

Montevideo Wanderers

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23

Deportivo Maldonado win

53.7%

model 53.0%

Draw

23.2%

model 24.5%

Montevideo Wanderers win

23.1%

model 22.5%

542323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,060 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 13.2%
1-1 11.6%
2-0 10.2%
2-1 9.4%
0-1 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.0%	Under 2.5	54.0%
BTTS yes	47.8%	BTTS no	52.2%
Deportivo Maldonado 1+	79.5%	Deportivo Maldonado 2+	47.0%
Montevideo Wanderers 1+	60.5%	Montevideo Wanderers 2+	23.9%

Expected goals 1.59 – 0.93. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

18/100

Data quality

40/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Deportivo Maldonado (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 41%

51.9% fair odds 1.93

moderate signal · 897 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Montevideo Wanderers not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Deportivo Maldonado carry the stronger rating, 1601 Elo against 1544.

Risk factors

Data quality is 40/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0036 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Deportivo Maldonado have an estimated 53.7% win probability, against 23.2% for the draw and 23.1% for Montevideo Wanderers. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.58 for Deportivo Maldonado and 0.93 for Montevideo Wanderers.

Why Deportivo Maldonado

Deportivo Maldonado carry the stronger rating, 1601 Elo against 1544.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Montevideo Wanderers can win

Nothing in the data singles out Montevideo Wanderers.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Deportivo Maldonado, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Montevideo Wanderers, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Deportivo Maldonado: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Montevideo Wanderers: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Deportivo Maldonado are the model's most likely outcome at 53.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.2%. Confidence 18/100, data quality 40/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	532422	1.59–0.93	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	572320	1.74–0.93	1-0 12%	50%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado to win	56.8%	54.1%	40.6%	1.33×	1.85
Draw	22.9%	24.4%	27.6%	0.88×	4.09
Montevideo Wanderers to win	20.3%	24.4%	32.0%	0.76×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado & not both score	32.7%	29.7%	22.7%	1.31×	3.37
Deportivo Maldonado & both teams score	24.0%	21.9%	18.0%	1.21×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	16.3%	17.9%	17.6%	1.01×	5.58
Montevideo Wanderers & not both score	10.9%	13.3%	18.2%	0.73×	7.55
Montevideo Wanderers & both teams score	9.4%	8.4%	13.9%	0.60×	11.92
Draw & not both score	6.6%	8.4%	10.2%	0.82×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado & over 1.5	44.4%	40.3%	29.4%	1.37×	2.48
Deportivo Maldonado & under 3.5	38.6%	34.9%	31.4%	1.11×	2.86
Deportivo Maldonado & over 2.5	34.0%	30.9%	22.5%	1.37×	3.24
Deportivo Maldonado & under 2.5	22.8%	21.6%	18.2%	1.19×	4.62
Deportivo Maldonado & over 3.5	18.2%	18.0%	9.4%	1.91×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.4%	18.0%	22.7%	0.79×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.4%	18.0%	22.7%	0.79×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.3%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.56
Montevideo Wanderers & under 3.5	15.9%	18.0%	25.7%	0.70×	5.56
Montevideo Wanderers & over 1.5	13.6%	12.9%	19.8%	0.65×	7.77
Deportivo Maldonado & under 1.5	12.3%	12.9%	11.4%	1.13×	7.77
Montevideo Wanderers & over 2.5	10.6%	12.9%	15.7%	0.82×	7.77
Montevideo Wanderers & under 2.5	9.7%	7.9%	16.5%	0.48×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	6.6%	7.9%	10.2%	0.77×	12.70
Montevideo Wanderers & under 1.5	6.7%	7.9%	12.4%	0.64×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.5%	7.9%	5.1%	1.54×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.5%	7.9%	5.1%	1.54×	12.70
Montevideo Wanderers & over 3.5	4.4%	4.8%	6.5%	0.74×	20.92

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado (1UP)	69.2%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Montevideo Wanderers (1UP)	37.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado (2UP)	56.8%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Montevideo Wanderers (2UP)	20.3%	23.3%	—	—	4.30

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado to win 2nd half	45.2%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
2nd half drawn	34.4%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Montevideo Wanderers to win 2nd half	20.4%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers (+2.5)	85.8%	88.5%	92.5%	0.96×	1.13
Deportivo Maldonado (+0.5)	79.7%	78.5%	68.0%	1.15×	1.27
Montevideo Wanderers (+1.5)	68.3%	68.7%	82.2%	0.84×	1.46
Deportivo Maldonado (-0.5)	56.8%	57.0%	40.6%	1.40×	1.75
Montevideo Wanderers (+0.5)	43.2%	43.0%	59.4%	0.72×	2.33
Deportivo Maldonado (-1.5)	31.7%	31.3%	17.8%	1.75×	3.19
Montevideo Wanderers (-0.5)	20.3%	21.5%	32.0%	0.67×	4.65
Deportivo Maldonado (-2.5)	14.2%	11.5%	7.5%	1.55×	8.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers to concede	82.5%	81.3%	71.8%	1.13×	1.23
Montevideo Wanderers clean sheet	17.5%	18.7%	28.2%	0.66×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers clean sheet in 1st half	47.3%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Montevideo Wanderers to concede in 1st half	52.7%	49.5%	—	—	2.02

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers under 3.5 goals	98.5%	97.6%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Montevideo Wanderers under 2.5 goals	93.1%	92.4%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Montevideo Wanderers under 1.5 goals	76.0%	76.2%	72.5%	1.05×	1.31
Montevideo Wanderers over 0.5 goals	60.7%	62.9%	67.3%	0.94×	1.59
Montevideo Wanderers under 0.5 goals	39.3%	37.1%	32.7%	1.13×	2.70
Montevideo Wanderers over 1.5 goals	24.0%	23.8%	27.5%	0.87×	4.21
Montevideo Wanderers over 2.5 goals	6.9%	7.6%	7.6%	1.00×	13.07
Montevideo Wanderers over 3.5 goals	1.5%	2.4%	2.7%	0.89×	40.90

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers under 1.5 in 1st half	94.5%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Montevideo Wanderers under 0.5 in 1st half	68.8%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Montevideo Wanderers over 0.5 in 1st half	31.2%	31.6%	—	—	3.16
Montevideo Wanderers over 1.5 in 1st half	5.5%	5.8%	—	—	17.26

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado (away no bet)	71.3%	68.5%	59.5%	1.15×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	28.7%	31.5%	40.5%	0.78×	3.18

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers even goals	57.7%	56.9%	54.5%	1.04×	1.76
Montevideo Wanderers odd goals	42.3%	43.1%	45.5%	0.95×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.8%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.2%	12.2%	—	—	8.19

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	56.5%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Deportivo Maldonado to score 2+ in a row	44.8%	38.4%	—	—	2.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.8%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Deportivo Maldonado to score 3+ in a row	18.5%	16.4%	—	—	6.08
Montevideo Wanderers to score 2+ in a row	16.7%	16.4%	—	—	6.10
Montevideo Wanderers to score 3+ in a row	3.5%	2.6%	—	—	38.27

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	12.3%	11.4%	11.4%	1.01×	8.74
1-1	10.9%	11.4%	12.7%	0.90×	8.74
2-0	10.4%	11.4%	7.1%	1.62×	8.74
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.47
0-0	6.6%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.47
0-1	6.7%	7.4%	12.4%	0.60×	13.47
1-2	5.2%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.47
3-0	6.1%	7.4%	3.7%	1.99×	13.47
3-1	5.7%	7.4%	3.1%	2.37×	13.47
0-2	3.0%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.51
0-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.18×	58.52
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.45×	58.52
1-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	58.51
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	4.36×	58.52
2-2	4.6%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.50
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.52
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.74×	58.52
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	2.2%	0.79×	58.51
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.18×	58.52
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	8.71×	58.52
4-0	2.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.45×	58.51
4-1	2.5%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.51
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.18×	58.52
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	8.71×	58.52
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.71×	58.52
Any other score	3.5%	1.7%	2.0%	0.87×	58.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado leading at HT (DNB)	70.9%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Montevideo Wanderers leading at HT (DNB)	29.1%	28.7%	—	—	3.49

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado or draw (1X)	79.7%	75.6%	68.0%	1.11×	1.32
Deportivo Maldonado or Montevideo Wanderers (12)	77.1%	75.6%	72.4%	1.04×	1.32
Montevideo Wanderers or draw (X2)	43.2%	45.9%	59.4%	0.77×	2.18

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado or draw at HT	83.2%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Montevideo Wanderers or draw at HT	59.0%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Deportivo Maldonado or Montevideo Wanderers at HT	57.8%	56.6%	—	—	1.77

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado or draw (1UP)	79.7%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Montevideo Wanderers or draw (1UP)	43.2%	52.8%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado or draw in 2nd half	79.6%	77.1%	—	—	1.30
Deportivo Maldonado or Montevideo Wanderers in 2nd half	65.6%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Montevideo Wanderers or draw in 2nd half	54.8%	54.6%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.5%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	37.5%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado (DNB)	73.6%	71.5%	55.9%	1.28×	1.40
Montevideo Wanderers (DNB)	26.4%	28.5%	44.1%	0.65×	3.51

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado to score first	60.8%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Montevideo Wanderers to score first	32.6%	26.9%	—	—	3.71
No goal scored	6.6%	7.5%	—	—	13.40

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.2%	51.4%	50.8%	1.01×	1.94
Both teams to score	49.8%	48.6%	49.2%	0.99×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	39.1%	38.5%	44.5%	0.87×	2.60
Both score & over 2.5	38.9%	38.5%	36.7%	1.05×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	10.9%	12.3%	12.7%	0.97×	8.12
Not both score & over 2.5	11.2%	12.3%	6.5%	1.90×	8.12

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.5%	85.7%	89.6%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.5%	14.3%	10.4%	1.38×	6.98

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.1%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.9%	25.7%	—	—	3.89

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.2%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Both score 2nd half only	22.5%	20.9%	—	—	4.78
Both score 1st half only	11.9%	10.5%	—	—	9.49
Both score in both halves	4.4%	5.0%	—	—	20.18

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.6%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.4%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.0%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
A half without a goal	47.0%	46.6%	—	—	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.3%	47.4%	46.1%	1.03×	2.11
4-6 goals	26.1%	26.4%	19.8%	1.33×	3.78
0-1 goals	25.6%	26.4%	33.5%	0.79×	3.78
7+ goals	2.0%	1.8%	1.0%	1.85×	55.05

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers to score exactly 0	39.3%	36.0%	32.7%	1.10×	2.78
Montevideo Wanderers to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.0%	40.0%	0.90×	2.78
Montevideo Wanderers to score exactly 2	17.1%	19.5%	20.0%	0.98×	5.12
Montevideo Wanderers to score 3+	6.9%	8.5%	7.6%	1.11×	11.82

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado to score exactly 1	30.5%	32.6%	35.1%	0.93×	3.06
Deportivo Maldonado to score exactly 2	26.6%	26.5%	23.5%	1.13×	3.77
Deportivo Maldonado to score 3+	25.4%	26.5%	13.5%	1.96×	3.77
Deportivo Maldonado to score exactly 0	17.5%	18.9%	28.2%	0.67×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.2%	43.4%	—	—	2.30
Deportivo Maldonado leading at HT	41.0%	43.4%	—	—	2.31
Montevideo Wanderers leading at HT	16.8%	15.6%	—	—	6.41

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado -1: 2	43.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Deportivo Maldonado -1: 1	31.7%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Deportivo Maldonado -1: X	25.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers (0:1)	43.2%	42.7%	59.4%	0.72×	2.34
Deportivo Maldonado (0:1)	31.7%	30.0%	17.8%	1.68×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	25.1%	27.0%	22.9%	1.18×	3.70

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers (0:2)	68.3%	72.2%	82.2%	0.88×	1.39
Draw (0:2)	17.4%	15.3%	10.6%	1.45×	6.54
Deportivo Maldonado (0:2)	14.2%	11.0%	7.5%	1.48×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers (0:3)	85.8%	90.7%	92.5%	0.98×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	9.0%	5.8%	5.5%	1.06×	17.15
Deportivo Maldonado (0:3)	5.3%	5.8%	2.2%	2.69×	17.22

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers (0:4)	94.7%	94.7%	97.8%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.6%	1.2%	1.8%	0.68×	83.18
Deportivo Maldonado (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	0.6%	2.04×	83.42

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado (1:0)	79.7%	78.5%	68.0%	1.15×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	13.6%	12.8%	22.5%	0.57×	7.80
Montevideo Wanderers (1:0)	6.7%	6.9%	9.6%	0.72×	14.48

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado (2:0)	93.3%	94.0%	90.4%	1.04×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.0%	2.3%	7.3%	0.31×	44.19
Montevideo Wanderers (2:0)	1.7%	2.3%	2.5%	0.88×	44.40

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.5%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	24.8%	24.3%	—	—	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado to concede	60.7%	63.3%	67.3%	0.94×	1.58
Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet	39.3%	36.7%	32.7%	1.12×	2.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet in 1st half	68.8%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Deportivo Maldonado to concede in 1st half	31.2%	31.3%	—	—	3.19

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado under 3.5 goals	90.0%	92.2%	95.5%	0.97×	1.08
Deportivo Maldonado over 0.5 goals	82.5%	82.1%	71.8%	1.14×	1.22
Deportivo Maldonado under 2.5 goals	74.6%	74.2%	86.5%	0.86×	1.35
Deportivo Maldonado over 1.5 goals	52.0%	53.2%	36.9%	1.44×	1.88
Deportivo Maldonado under 1.5 goals	48.0%	46.8%	63.1%	0.74×	2.14
Deportivo Maldonado over 2.5 goals	25.4%	25.8%	13.5%	1.91×	3.88
Deportivo Maldonado under 0.5 goals	17.5%	17.9%	28.2%	0.63×	5.59
Deportivo Maldonado over 3.5 goals	10.0%	7.8%	4.5%	1.72×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado under 1.5 in 1st half	82.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Deportivo Maldonado under 0.5 in 1st half	47.3%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Deportivo Maldonado over 0.5 in 1st half	52.7%	49.4%	—	—	2.03
Deportivo Maldonado over 1.5 in 1st half	17.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	52.9%	51.6%	46.4%	1.11×	1.94
Montevideo Wanderers (home no bet)	47.1%	48.4%	53.6%	0.90×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado even goals	51.5%	50.6%	55.1%	0.92×	1.98
Deportivo Maldonado odd goals	48.5%	49.4%	44.9%	1.10×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.5%	32.1%	—	—	3.11
HT 1-0	24.4%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 0-1	12.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 2-0	9.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.14
HT 1-1	9.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.15
Any other HT score	4.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.72
HT 2-1	3.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.81
HT 0-2	2.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.90
HT 1-2	1.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.94
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	44.02

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado at HT / Deportivo Maldonado at FT	34.9%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
Draw at HT / Deportivo Maldonado at FT	19.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Montevideo Wanderers at HT / Montevideo Wanderers at FT	10.2%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / Montevideo Wanderers at FT	8.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
Deportivo Maldonado at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
Montevideo Wanderers at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
Montevideo Wanderers at HT / Deportivo Maldonado at FT	2.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Deportivo Maldonado at HT / Montevideo Wanderers at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.93

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado to score last	60.8%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Montevideo Wanderers to score last	32.7%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
No goal scored	6.6%	7.5%	—	—	13.40

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.4%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Deportivo Maldonado to lead by 1 at any time	69.2%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.4%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Deportivo Maldonado to lead by 2 at any time	37.7%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Montevideo Wanderers to lead by 1 at any time	37.1%	34.8%	—	—	2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.2%	15.0%	—	—	6.67
Deportivo Maldonado to lead by 3 at any time	16.6%	15.0%	—	—	6.69
Montevideo Wanderers to lead by 2 at any time	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.65
Montevideo Wanderers to lead by 3 at any time	2.6%	1.6%	—	—	63.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.0%	87.4%	86.3%	1.01×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.1%	83.5%	80.8%	1.03×	1.20
2-6 goals	72.4%	72.4%	65.7%	1.10×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.9%	69.0%	62.9%	1.10×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.4%	69.0%	69.4%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.0%	63.4%	57.5%	1.10×	1.58
3-6 goals	48.1%	48.7%	42.2%	1.15×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.3%	48.7%	46.1%	1.06×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.6%	43.6%	39.4%	1.11×	2.29
1-2 goals	43.4%	43.6%	47.1%	0.93×	2.30
3-4 goals	36.7%	39.2%	33.9%	1.15×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.1%	30.2%	19.8%	1.53×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.6%	24.5%	17.1%	1.43×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.4%	14.9%	8.4%	1.76×	6.73
7+ goals	2.0%	2.5%	1.0%	2.59×	39.43

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado never behind	56.3%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Montevideo Wanderers never behind	24.3%	24.4%	—	—	4.09

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.6%	50.8%	47.8%	1.06×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.4%	49.2%	52.2%	0.94×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.2%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.8%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.5%	92.3%	96.3%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.4%	92.3%	89.8%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.6%	87.6%	90.8%	0.97×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.4%	72.5%	66.5%	1.09×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	71.9%	72.5%	79.4%	0.91×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	50.1%	52.4%	42.9%	1.22×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	49.9%	47.6%	57.1%	0.83×	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	28.1%	27.5%	20.6%	1.33×	3.64
Under 1.5 goals	25.6%	27.5%	33.5%	0.82×	3.64
Over 4.5 goals	13.4%	12.4%	9.2%	1.34×	8.09
Under 0.5 goals	6.6%	7.7%	10.2%	0.76×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	5.5%	7.7%	3.7%	2.07×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.0%	97.3%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.1%	92.5%	96.1%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.3%	81.1%	89.6%	0.91×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.2%	67.4%	56.2%	1.20×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	64.0%	62.1%	73.5%	0.85×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.0%	37.9%	26.5%	1.43×	2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.8%	32.6%	43.8%	0.74×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.7%	18.9%	10.4%	1.82×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.0%	7.5%	3.9%	1.91×	13.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.0%	2.8%	1.0%	2.73×	36.36

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.6%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.1%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.5%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.5%	30.9%	—	—	3.24
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.9%	30.8%	—	—	3.24
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.4%	10.9%	—	—	9.20

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.5%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.0%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.1%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.9%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.0%	20.0%	—	—	4.99
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.5%	20.0%	—	—	5.00

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers not to score in both halves	86.6%	86.0%	—	—	1.16
Deportivo Maldonado not to score in both halves	66.8%	70.2%	—	—	1.43
Deportivo Maldonado to score in both halves	33.2%	29.8%	—	—	3.35
Montevideo Wanderers to score in both halves	13.4%	14.0%	—	—	7.13

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.8%	50.4%	49.2%	1.02×	1.98
Only Deportivo Maldonado scores	32.7%	33.4%	22.7%	1.47×	3.00
Only Montevideo Wanderers scores	10.9%	10.9%	18.2%	0.60×	9.15
Neither team scores	6.6%	7.2%	10.2%	0.70×	13.92

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.3%	22.6%	23.7%	0.95×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	22.5%	1.00×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	19.1%	17.4%	23.5%	0.74×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.7%	12.1%	11.6%	1.04×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	7.9%	7.6%	5.7%	1.34×	13.09
Exactly 0 goals	6.6%	7.6%	10.2%	0.75×	13.10
6 or more goals	5.5%	7.6%	3.7%	2.05×	13.10

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.9%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	33.1%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	21.0%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers not to win both halves	96.6%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Deportivo Maldonado not to win both halves	81.5%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Deportivo Maldonado to win both halves	18.5%	15.9%	—	—	6.27
Montevideo Wanderers to win both halves	3.4%	2.8%	—	—	35.62

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado to win either half	67.7%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Montevideo Wanderers to win neither half	66.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Montevideo Wanderers to win either half	33.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Deportivo Maldonado to win neither half	32.3%	32.1%	—	—	3.12

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers not to win to nil	89.1%	88.2%	81.8%	1.08×	1.13
Deportivo Maldonado not to win to nil	67.3%	69.6%	77.3%	0.90×	1.44
Deportivo Maldonado to win to nil	32.7%	30.4%	22.7%	1.34×	3.29
Montevideo Wanderers to win to nil	10.9%	11.8%	18.2%	0.65×	8.49

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Maldonado by 1	25.1%	27.8%	22.9%	1.21×	3.60
Draw	22.9%	24.2%	27.6%	0.87×	4.14
Deportivo Maldonado by 2	17.4%	17.0%	10.6%	1.60×	5.90
Deportivo Maldonado by 3+	14.2%	11.8%	7.5%	1.59×	8.47
Montevideo Wanderers by 1	13.6%	11.8%	22.5%	0.52×	8.47
Montevideo Wanderers by 2	5.0%	2.7%	7.3%	0.37×	36.98
Montevideo Wanderers by 3+	1.7%	2.7%	2.5%	1.06×	37.08