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Eintracht Frankfurt v Freiburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Eintracht Frankfurt win
49.9%
model 48.5%
Draw
21.9%
model 23.3%
Freiburg win
28.2%
model 28.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.7%
  2. 2-1 9.5%
  3. 1-0 8.2%
  4. 2-0 7.3%
  5. 1-2 6.9%

Goals

Over 2.559.1% Under 2.540.9%
BTTS yes60.3% BTTS no39.7%
Eintracht Frankfurt 1+82.9% Eintracht Frankfurt 2+52.8%
Freiburg 1+72.7% Freiburg 2+37.2%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.30. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
95/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
Under 1.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT · usually 59%
72.5% fair odds 1.38
moderate signal · 1293 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time · usually 79%
83.0% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1236 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Eintracht Frankfurt have created 1.53 xG a match over their last five while Freiburg have allowed 1.55.
  • At home Eintracht Frankfurt average 1.66 xG a match.
  • They have had 21 days' rest to Freiburg's 14.

Risk factors

  • Freiburg have scored 2.40 a match from 1.56 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Eintracht Frankfurt have an estimated 49.9% win probability, against 28.2% for Freiburg and 21.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.77 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.30 for Freiburg.

Why Eintracht Frankfurt

Eintracht Frankfurt have created 1.53 xG a match over their last five while Freiburg have allowed 1.55. At home Eintracht Frankfurt average 1.66 xG a match. They have had 21 days' rest to Freiburg's 14.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.9%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Freiburg can win

Freiburg carry the stronger rating, 1567 Elo against 1475. Freiburg have created 1.56 xG a match over their last five while Eintracht Frankfurt have allowed 1.87. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Freiburg average 1.11 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Eintracht Frankfurt were missing 0.92 expected goal involvements a match against 0.60.

Key players

Eintracht Frankfurt's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Jonathan Burkardt (0.45), Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga (0.33), Ritsu Doan (0.27). Freiburg's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Igor Matanovic (0.38), Yuito Suzuki (0.28), Johan Manzambi (0.25).

Availability

2 of Eintracht Frankfurt's top three contributors did not start their last match. Eintracht Frankfurt changed goalkeeper for their last match. 36% of Eintracht Frankfurt's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Freiburg's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Eintracht Frankfurt: 56% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces. Freiburg: 43% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.47 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Eintracht Frankfurt are the model's most likely outcome at 49.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.7%. Confidence 95/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 16 from 15.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WLDWLDLLDD last 10 scored 16 from 15.3 xG conceded 19 from 18.7 xG

Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

WLWWLDLWWW last 10 scored 19 from 15.6 xG conceded 15 from 15.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.77–1.30 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.90–1.20 1-1 10% 60% 59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt to win 48.4% 47.5% 41.8% 1.14× 2.11
Freiburg to win 27.6% 27.9% 33.5% 0.83× 3.59
Draw 24.0% 24.4% 24.8% 0.99× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt & both teams score 24.2% 21.9% 22.3% 0.98× 4.57
Eintracht Frankfurt & not both score 24.2% 21.9% 19.7% 1.11× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 18.5% 17.9% 19.2% 0.93× 5.58
Freiburg & both teams score 14.6% 13.3% 18.3% 0.72× 7.55
Freiburg & not both score 13.0% 13.2% 15.4% 0.86× 7.55
Draw & not both score 5.5% 8.4% 5.7% 1.46× 11.95
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt & over 1.5 39.1% 34.9% 35.6% 0.98× 2.86
Eintracht Frankfurt & over 2.5 31.3% 30.9% 29.6% 1.04× 3.24
Eintracht Frankfurt & under 3.5 30.9% 30.9% 21.6% 1.43× 3.24
Freiburg & over 1.5 20.9% 21.6% 27.7% 0.78× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 18.5% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
Freiburg & under 3.5 19.2% 18.0% 19.9% 0.91× 5.56
Eintracht Frankfurt & under 2.5 17.1% 18.0% 12.4% 1.45× 5.56
Eintracht Frankfurt & over 3.5 17.4% 18.0% 20.4% 0.88× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 16.8% 18.0% 15.4% 1.17× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 16.8% 18.0% 15.4% 1.17× 5.56
Freiburg & over 2.5 16.9% 18.0% 23.4% 0.77× 5.56
Freiburg & under 2.5 10.7% 12.9% 10.3% 1.24× 7.78
Eintracht Frankfurt & under 1.5 9.3% 7.9% 6.4% 1.24× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 7.3% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 7.3% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.69
Freiburg & over 3.5 8.4% 7.9% 13.8% 0.57× 12.69
Freiburg & under 1.5 6.7% 7.9% 6.0% 1.30× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 5.5% 7.9% 5.7% 1.38× 12.69
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt (1UP) 64.0% 63.3% 59.7% 1.06× 1.58
Freiburg (1UP) 46.2% 42.8% 52.9% 0.81× 2.33
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt (2UP) 48.4% 50.0% 45.2% 1.11× 2.00
Freiburg (2UP) 27.6% 24.6% 36.5% 0.67× 4.06
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt to win 2nd half 44.3% 41.4% 37.3% 1.11× 2.42
2nd half drawn 31.8% 34.4% 33.4% 1.03× 2.90
Freiburg to win 2nd half 23.9% 23.0% 29.5% 0.78× 4.34
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg (+2.5) 88.9% 88.5% 88.2% 1.00× 1.13
Freiburg (+1.5) 74.2% 73.7% 75.2% 0.98× 1.36
Eintracht Frankfurt (+0.5) 72.4% 73.7% 66.5% 1.11× 1.36
Freiburg (+0.5) 51.6% 52.3% 58.2% 0.90× 1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt (-0.5) 48.4% 47.7% 41.8% 1.14× 2.10
Freiburg (-0.5) 27.6% 26.3% 33.5% 0.79× 3.80
Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5) 25.8% 26.3% 24.8% 1.06× 3.80
Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5) 11.1% 11.5% 11.8% 0.98× 8.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg to concede 81.5% 81.3% 79.0% 1.03× 1.23
Freiburg clean sheet 18.5% 18.7% 21.0% 0.89× 5.34
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg clean sheet in 1st half 55.7% 57.6% 48.1% 1.20× 1.74
Freiburg to concede in 1st half 44.3% 42.4% 51.9% 0.82× 2.36
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg under 6.5 corners 86.0% 84.9% 1.18
Freiburg under 5.5 corners 77.3% 75.8% 1.32
Freiburg over 2.5 corners 67.8% 68.2% 1.47
Freiburg under 4.5 corners 65.2% 68.2% 1.47
Freiburg over 3.5 corners 50.4% 52.4% 1.91
Freiburg under 3.5 corners 49.6% 47.6% 2.10
Freiburg over 4.5 corners 34.9% 31.8% 3.15
Freiburg under 2.5 corners 32.2% 31.8% 3.15
Freiburg over 5.5 corners 22.7% 24.2% 4.13
Freiburg over 6.5 corners 14.0% 15.1% 6.62
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg under 3.5 goals 96.5% 97.6% 92.8% 1.05× 1.03
Freiburg under 2.5 goals 87.6% 87.9% 79.2% 1.11× 1.14
Freiburg over 0.5 goals 70.4% 71.9% 74.7% 0.96× 1.39
Freiburg under 1.5 goals 65.7% 67.9% 57.2% 1.19× 1.47
Freiburg over 1.5 goals 34.3% 32.1% 42.8% 0.75× 3.12
Freiburg under 0.5 goals 29.6% 28.1% 25.3% 1.11× 3.56
Freiburg over 2.5 goals 12.4% 12.1% 20.8% 0.58× 8.25
Freiburg over 3.5 goals 3.5% 2.4% 7.2% 0.34× 41.01
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg under 1.5 in 1st half 91.2% 94.1% 85.8% 1.10× 1.06
Freiburg under 0.5 in 1st half 61.1% 64.3% 54.5% 1.18× 1.55
Freiburg over 0.5 in 1st half 38.9% 35.7% 45.5% 0.78× 2.80
Freiburg over 1.5 in 1st half 8.8% 5.9% 14.2% 0.42× 16.92
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt (away no bet) 66.8% 66.5% 62.8% 1.06× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 33.2% 33.5% 37.2% 0.90× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg even goals 54.4% 52.8% 53.1% 0.99× 1.90
Freiburg odd goals 45.6% 47.2% 46.9% 1.01× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.1% 83.3% 76.0% 1.10× 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 15.9% 16.7% 24.0% 0.70× 5.98
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 67.8% 68.4% 72.3% 0.95× 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 32.2% 31.6% 27.7% 1.14× 3.17
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 59.2% 55.5% 66.9% 0.83× 1.80
Eintracht Frankfurt to score 2+ in a row 41.4% 38.2% 42.5% 0.90× 2.62
Freiburg to score 2+ in a row 25.0% 25.1% 34.6% 0.73× 3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row 22.2% 19.3% 29.3% 0.66× 5.18
Eintracht Frankfurt to score 3+ in a row 15.9% 16.4% 17.7% 0.93× 6.11
Freiburg to score 3+ in a row 6.7% 5.6% 12.6% 0.44× 18.00
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt corners (+3.5) 88.5% 84.2% 1.19
Eintracht Frankfurt corners (+2.5) 82.2% 80.0% 1.25
Freiburg corners (+3.5) 78.4% 75.5% 1.33
Eintracht Frankfurt corners (+1.5) 73.8% 69.9% 1.43
Freiburg corners (+2.5) 69.6% 66.8% 1.50
Freiburg corners (+1.5) 59.2% 56.8% 1.76
Eintracht Frankfurt corners (-1.5) 40.8% 43.2% 2.32
Eintracht Frankfurt corners (-2.5) 30.4% 33.2% 3.01
Freiburg corners (-1.5) 26.2% 30.1% 3.32
Eintracht Frankfurt corners (-3.5) 21.6% 24.5% 4.08
Freiburg corners (-2.5) 17.8% 20.0% 5.00
Freiburg corners (-3.5) 11.5% 15.8% 6.32
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 53.9% 46.3% 2.16
9-11 corners 26.3% 31.8% 3.15
12+ corners 19.8% 21.8% 4.59
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 85.9% 82.8% 1.21
Under 11.5 corners 80.2% 79.8% 1.25
Under 10.5 corners 72.9% 72.5% 1.38
Under 9.5 corners 64.1% 62.7% 1.60
Over 7.5 corners 57.1% 57.8% 1.73
Under 8.5 corners 53.9% 52.3% 1.91
Over 8.5 corners 46.1% 47.8% 2.09
Under 7.5 corners 42.9% 42.2% 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 35.9% 37.3% 2.68
Over 10.5 corners 27.1% 27.5% 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 19.8% 20.2% 4.96
Over 12.5 corners 14.1% 17.2% 5.80
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.3% 11.5% 9.9% 1.16× 8.73
1-0 9.3% 7.4% 6.4% 1.17× 13.46
2-1 9.5% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.46
0-1 6.7% 7.4% 6.0% 1.23× 13.46
1-2 6.8% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.46
2-0 7.8% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.46
0-0 5.5% 7.4% 5.7% 1.30× 13.46
2-2 5.8% 7.4% 6.4% 1.17× 13.46
3-1 5.3% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.46
0-2 4.1% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.57
0-3 1.6% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.58
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.59
1-3 2.8% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.58
1-4 0.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.59
2-3 2.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.58
2-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.1% 1.53× 58.59
3-0 4.4% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.57
3-2 3.2% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.57
3-3 1.3% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.59
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.19× 58.59
4-0 1.9% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.58
4-1 2.2% 1.7% 2.2% 0.77× 58.58
4-2 1.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.53× 58.58
4-3 0.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.79× 58.59
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.58× 58.59
Any other score 3.7% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 58.57
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt leading at HT (DNB) 55.4% 57.3% 55.7% 1.03× 1.75
Freiburg leading at HT (DNB) 44.6% 42.7% 44.3% 0.96× 2.34
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt or Freiburg (12) 76.0% 75.6% 75.2% 1.00× 1.32
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw (1X) 72.4% 72.1% 66.5% 1.09× 1.39
Freiburg or draw (X2) 51.6% 52.5% 58.2% 0.90× 1.91
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw at HT 75.3% 79.9% 70.7% 1.13× 1.25
Freiburg or draw at HT 69.3% 66.2% 63.2% 1.05× 1.51
Eintracht Frankfurt or Freiburg at HT 55.4% 56.7% 65.9% 0.86× 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw (1UP) 72.4% 80.0% 73.6% 1.09× 1.25
Freiburg or draw (1UP) 51.6% 58.7% 65.0% 0.90× 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw in 2nd half 76.1% 77.0% 70.5% 1.09× 1.30
Eintracht Frankfurt or Freiburg in 2nd half 68.2% 65.6% 66.6% 0.99× 1.53
Freiburg or draw in 2nd half 55.7% 58.6% 62.7% 0.93× 1.71
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.2% 61.5% 53.7% 1.15× 1.63
Neither half drawn 37.8% 38.5% 46.3% 0.83× 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt (DNB) 63.7% 62.9% 55.5% 1.13× 1.59
Freiburg (DNB) 36.3% 37.1% 44.5% 0.83× 2.70
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt to score first 54.9% 54.3% 50.8% 1.07× 1.84
Freiburg to score first 39.6% 32.6% 43.6% 0.75× 3.06
No goal scored 5.5% 7.3% 5.7% 1.28× 13.65
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 57.3% 54.8% 59.5% 0.92× 1.83
Not both teams to score 42.7% 45.2% 40.5% 1.12× 2.21
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 46.1% 44.2% 49.8% 0.89× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 33.3% 34.4% 28.1% 1.22× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 11.3% 12.3% 9.9% 1.25× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 9.4% 8.4% 12.6% 0.67× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 82.8% 83.2% 79.7% 1.04× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 17.2% 16.8% 20.4% 0.83× 5.94
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 65.6% 67.6% 65.4% 1.03× 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 34.4% 32.4% 34.6% 0.94× 3.08
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 54.3% 56.3% 51.6% 1.09× 1.78
Both score 2nd half only 28.4% 26.1% 27.9% 0.94× 3.84
Both score 1st half only 11.3% 10.5% 14.0% 0.75× 9.56
Both score in both halves 5.9% 6.7% 6.8% 0.97× 15.00
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.8% 82.9% 79.3% 1.05× 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 17.2% 17.1% 20.7% 0.83× 5.84
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 55.3% 57.2% 66.9% 0.85× 1.75
A half without a goal 44.7% 42.8% 33.1% 1.29× 2.33
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.5% 47.4% 39.0% 1.22× 2.11
4-6 goals 30.2% 30.7% 39.7% 0.77× 3.26
0-1 goals 21.4% 22.8% 17.8% 1.28× 4.38
7+ goals 2.9% 1.8% 3.8% 0.48× 55.13
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg to score exactly 1 36.0% 36.0% 32.1% 1.12× 2.78
Freiburg to score exactly 0 29.6% 27.4% 25.3% 1.08× 3.65
Freiburg to score exactly 2 21.9% 22.4% 22.1% 1.01× 4.47
Freiburg to score 3+ 12.4% 12.8% 20.8% 0.62× 7.80
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt to score exactly 1 31.2% 32.6% 29.1% 1.12× 3.06
Eintracht Frankfurt to score exactly 2 26.3% 26.5% 22.7% 1.17× 3.77
Eintracht Frankfurt to score 3+ 23.9% 23.3% 27.5% 0.85× 4.30
Eintracht Frankfurt to score exactly 0 18.5% 18.9% 21.0% 0.90× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 44.6% 43.3% 34.1% 1.27× 2.31
Eintracht Frankfurt leading at HT 30.7% 33.8% 36.8% 0.92× 2.96
Freiburg leading at HT 24.7% 20.1% 29.3% 0.69× 4.98
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt -1: 2 51.6% 52.0% 1.92
Eintracht Frankfurt -1: 1 25.8% 26.5% 3.77
Eintracht Frankfurt -1: X 22.6% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg (0:1) 51.6% 51.2% 58.2% 0.88× 1.96
Eintracht Frankfurt (0:1) 25.8% 27.0% 24.8% 1.09× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 22.6% 24.3% 17.2% 1.42× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg (0:2) 74.2% 75.6% 75.2% 1.01× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 14.7% 11.0% 13.2% 0.84× 9.07
Eintracht Frankfurt (0:2) 11.1% 11.0% 11.8% 0.93× 9.09
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg (0:3) 88.9% 90.8% 88.2% 1.03× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 7.2% 5.8% 5.1% 1.14× 17.24
Eintracht Frankfurt (0:3) 3.9% 2.4% 6.8% 0.35× 41.97
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg (0:4) 96.1% 98.1% 93.2% 1.05× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.8% 1.2% 5.2% 0.23× 83.15
Eintracht Frankfurt (0:4) 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 0.69× 83.34
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt (1:0) 72.4% 72.5% 66.5% 1.09× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 16.3% 17.0% 16.5% 1.03× 5.87
Freiburg (1:0) 11.3% 12.8% 17.2% 0.75× 7.81
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt (2:0) 88.7% 88.4% 82.8% 1.07× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 7.7% 6.5% 10.0% 0.64× 15.49
Freiburg (2:0) 3.6% 2.3% 7.3% 0.31× 44.18
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 54.8% 50.4% 46.8% 1.08× 1.98
Halves equal 22.9% 24.2% 26.9% 0.90× 4.13
1st half highest scoring 22.2% 24.2% 26.4% 0.92× 4.13
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt to concede 70.4% 73.0% 74.7% 0.98× 1.37
Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet 29.6% 27.0% 25.3% 1.07× 3.70
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet in 1st half 61.1% 64.4% 54.5% 1.18× 1.55
Eintracht Frankfurt to concede in 1st half 38.9% 35.6% 45.5% 0.78× 2.81
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt under 6.5 corners 77.5% 76.1% 1.31
Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.5 corners 76.6% 76.1% 1.31
Eintracht Frankfurt under 5.5 corners 67.0% 67.7% 1.48
Eintracht Frankfurt over 3.5 corners 61.4% 62.0% 1.61
Eintracht Frankfurt under 4.5 corners 53.7% 53.1% 1.89
Eintracht Frankfurt over 4.5 corners 46.3% 46.9% 2.13
Eintracht Frankfurt under 3.5 corners 38.6% 38.0% 2.63
Eintracht Frankfurt over 5.5 corners 33.0% 32.3% 3.10
Eintracht Frankfurt under 2.5 corners 23.4% 23.9% 4.19
Eintracht Frankfurt over 6.5 corners 22.5% 23.9% 4.19
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt under 3.5 goals 90.9% 92.2% 88.6% 1.04× 1.08
Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.5 goals 81.5% 82.1% 79.0% 1.04× 1.22
Eintracht Frankfurt under 2.5 goals 76.1% 77.7% 72.5% 1.07× 1.29
Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.5 goals 50.2% 53.3% 50.1% 1.06× 1.88
Eintracht Frankfurt under 1.5 goals 49.8% 46.7% 49.9% 0.94× 2.14
Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.5 goals 23.9% 22.3% 27.5% 0.81× 4.48
Eintracht Frankfurt under 0.5 goals 18.5% 17.9% 21.0% 0.85× 5.60
Eintracht Frankfurt over 3.5 goals 9.1% 7.8% 11.4% 0.68× 12.87
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt under 1.5 in 1st half 88.3% 90.0% 80.7% 1.11× 1.11
Eintracht Frankfurt under 0.5 in 1st half 55.7% 57.2% 48.1% 1.19× 1.75
Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.5 in 1st half 44.3% 42.8% 51.9% 0.82× 2.34
Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.5 in 1st half 11.7% 10.0% 19.3% 0.52× 9.99
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg (home no bet) 53.5% 51.6% 57.5% 0.90× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 46.5% 48.4% 42.5% 1.14× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt even goals 51.7% 50.6% 52.5% 0.97× 1.98
Eintracht Frankfurt odd goals 48.3% 49.4% 47.5% 1.04× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 34.0% 32.6% 23.2% 1.40× 3.07
HT 1-0 19.9% 18.9% 19.4% 0.97× 5.28
HT 0-1 16.8% 18.9% 16.6% 1.14× 5.30
HT 1-1 9.8% 7.1% 9.7% 0.73× 14.06
HT 2-0 5.8% 7.1% 9.6% 0.74× 14.13
HT 0-2 4.1% 2.2% 7.0% 0.32× 44.61
Any other HT score 3.5% 2.2% 6.7% 0.33× 44.66
HT 2-1 2.9% 2.2% 4.3% 0.52× 44.71
HT 1-2 2.4% 2.2% 3.5% 0.64× 44.75
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.2% 1.3% 1.75× 44.89
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt at HT / Eintracht Frankfurt at FT 24.8% 22.2% 28.2% 0.79× 4.50
Draw at HT / Eintracht Frankfurt at FT 19.8% 16.8% 10.7% 1.58× 5.94
Freiburg at HT / Freiburg at FT 15.2% 16.8% 20.2% 0.83× 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.2% 12.7% 13.9% 0.92× 7.88
Draw at HT / Freiburg at FT 10.7% 12.6% 9.9% 1.28× 7.91
Freiburg at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.0% 6.1% 0.99× 16.63
Eintracht Frankfurt at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.4% 5.1% 0.67× 29.11
Freiburg at HT / Eintracht Frankfurt at FT 3.8% 3.4% 3.3% 1.03× 29.13
Eintracht Frankfurt at HT / Freiburg at FT 1.7% 3.4% 3.8% 0.90× 29.22
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt to score last 54.9% 52.0% 50.0% 1.04× 1.92
Freiburg to score last 39.6% 38.4% 44.4% 0.86× 2.60
No goal scored 5.5% 7.3% 5.7% 1.28× 13.65
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.5% 92.8% 94.3% 0.98× 1.08
Eintracht Frankfurt to lead by 1 at any time 64.0% 61.5% 59.7% 1.03× 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 49.5% 44.1% 55.9% 0.79× 2.27
Freiburg to lead by 1 at any time 46.2% 44.0% 52.9% 0.83× 2.28
Eintracht Frankfurt to lead by 2 at any time 32.8% 29.5% 33.3% 0.89× 3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 18.7% 15.0% 25.5% 0.59× 6.69
Freiburg to lead by 2 at any time 17.0% 14.9% 23.4% 0.64× 6.70
Eintracht Frankfurt to lead by 3 at any time 13.6% 10.5% 15.6% 0.67× 9.54
Freiburg to lead by 3 at any time 5.1% 6.5% 10.0% 0.65× 15.44
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt most corners 52.2% 52.9% 1.89
Freiburg most corners 36.4% 38.6% 2.59
Corners level 11.4% 10.6% 9.39
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.1% 87.4% 83.3% 1.05× 1.14
1-4 goals 77.7% 78.6% 72.7% 1.08× 1.27
2-6 goals 75.7% 78.6% 78.5% 1.00× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.2% 72.4% 71.2% 1.02× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.7% 63.5% 60.6% 1.05× 1.58
1-3 goals 61.4% 63.5% 51.0% 1.24× 1.58
3-6 goals 52.6% 53.1% 58.5% 0.91× 1.88
3-5 goals 48.0% 48.7% 51.2% 0.95× 2.06
2-3 goals 45.5% 48.7% 39.0% 1.25× 2.06
1-2 goals 39.1% 39.2% 32.3% 1.21× 2.55
3-4 goals 38.6% 39.2% 40.5% 0.97× 2.55
4-6 goals 30.2% 35.4% 39.7% 0.89× 2.83
4-5 goals 25.7% 30.2% 32.4% 0.93× 3.31
5-6 goals 14.0% 14.9% 18.1% 0.82× 6.73
7+ goals 2.9% 2.5% 3.8% 0.66× 39.45
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt never behind 48.3% 57.2% 47.1% 1.21× 1.75
Freiburg never behind 30.5% 35.3% 40.3% 0.88× 2.83
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.8% 50.8% 44.7% 1.14× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.2% 49.2% 55.3% 0.89× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.8% 57.8% 52.4% 1.10× 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.2% 42.2% 47.6% 0.89× 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.3% 52.0% 53.0% 0.98× 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.7% 48.0% 47.0% 1.02× 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.5% 92.3% 94.3% 0.98× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 92.6% 92.3% 88.9% 1.04× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 83.2% 82.4% 78.2% 1.05× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 78.6% 77.4% 82.2% 0.94× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 66.9% 66.3% 56.6% 1.17× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 55.4% 58.8% 62.2% 0.95× 1.70
Under 2.5 goals 44.6% 41.2% 37.8% 1.09× 2.43
Over 3.5 goals 33.1% 33.7% 43.4% 0.78× 2.96
Under 1.5 goals 21.4% 22.6% 17.8% 1.27× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 16.8% 17.6% 21.8% 0.81× 5.67
Over 5.5 goals 7.4% 7.7% 11.1% 0.69× 12.95
Under 0.5 goals 5.5% 7.7% 5.7% 1.35× 12.96
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.0% 97.2% 95.9% 1.01× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 91.8% 92.5% 87.5% 1.06× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 79.9% 76.0% 72.2% 1.05× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 72.1% 72.6% 77.7% 0.93× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 57.4% 55.5% 46.6% 1.19× 1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 42.6% 44.5% 53.4% 0.83× 2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 27.9% 27.4% 22.3% 1.23× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 20.1% 24.0% 27.8% 0.87× 4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 8.2% 7.5% 12.5% 0.61× 13.26
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.0% 2.8% 4.1% 0.67× 36.36
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.5% 92.7% 84.7% 1.09× 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 70.7% 71.0% 58.9% 1.21× 1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half 66.0% 69.0% 76.8% 0.90× 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 34.0% 31.0% 23.2% 1.34× 3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half 29.3% 29.0% 41.1% 0.71× 3.45
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.5% 7.3% 15.3% 0.48× 13.71
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.9% 83.0% 84.4% 0.98× 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 72.4% 77.9% 73.6% 1.06× 1.28
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 54.4% 53.1% 55.3% 0.96× 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 45.6% 46.9% 44.7% 1.05× 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 27.6% 22.1% 26.4% 0.84× 4.53
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.1% 17.0% 15.6% 1.09× 5.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg not to score in both halves 80.0% 78.5% 72.6% 1.08× 1.27
Eintracht Frankfurt not to score in both halves 70.4% 74.2% 64.7% 1.15× 1.35
Eintracht Frankfurt to score in both halves 29.6% 25.8% 35.4% 0.73× 3.87
Freiburg to score in both halves 20.0% 21.5% 27.4% 0.78× 4.65
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 57.3% 58.2% 59.5% 0.98× 1.72
Only Eintracht Frankfurt scores 24.2% 22.4% 19.7% 1.14× 4.47
Only Freiburg scores 13.0% 10.9% 15.4% 0.71× 9.14
Neither team scores 5.5% 7.2% 5.7% 1.25× 13.96
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.1% 22.6% 20.2% 1.12× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 18.9% 1.20× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 16.2% 17.4% 21.8% 0.80× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 15.9% 17.4% 12.2% 1.43× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 9.4% 7.6% 10.8% 0.70× 13.13
6 or more goals 7.4% 7.6% 11.1% 0.68× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 5.5% 7.6% 5.7% 1.33× 13.14
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 54.4% 51.1% 55.3% 0.93× 1.96
1 goal in 2nd half 29.4% 29.7% 29.3% 1.01× 3.37
No goals in 2nd half 16.1% 16.8% 15.6% 1.08× 5.94
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg not to win both halves 94.1% 94.0% 90.6% 1.04× 1.06
Eintracht Frankfurt not to win both halves 86.4% 88.0% 84.1% 1.05× 1.14
Eintracht Frankfurt to win both halves 13.6% 12.0% 15.9% 0.75× 8.35
Freiburg to win both halves 5.9% 6.0% 9.4% 0.64× 16.69
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt to win either half 61.4% 65.3% 58.1% 1.12× 1.53
Freiburg to win neither half 57.3% 59.4% 50.6% 1.17× 1.68
Freiburg to win either half 42.7% 40.6% 49.4% 0.82× 2.46
Eintracht Frankfurt to win neither half 38.6% 34.7% 41.9% 0.83× 2.88
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Freiburg not to win to nil 87.0% 88.2% 84.6% 1.04× 1.13
Eintracht Frankfurt not to win to nil 75.8% 78.0% 80.3% 0.97× 1.28
Eintracht Frankfurt to win to nil 24.2% 22.0% 19.7% 1.12× 4.55
Freiburg to win to nil 13.0% 11.8% 15.4% 0.77× 8.48
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 24.0% 24.1% 24.8% 0.97× 4.14
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1 22.6% 24.1% 17.2% 1.41× 4.14
Freiburg by 1 16.3% 16.9% 16.5% 1.02× 5.90
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2 14.7% 11.8% 13.2% 0.90× 8.46
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+ 11.1% 11.8% 11.8% 1.00× 8.47
Freiburg by 2 7.7% 7.2% 10.0% 0.72× 13.80
Freiburg by 3+ 3.6% 2.7% 7.3% 0.37× 36.95
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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