Eintracht Frankfurt v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 May 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 5
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 5
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.18 – +1.26
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Eintracht Frankfurt win
50.4%
Draw
27.3%
St. Pauli win
22.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 16 from 15.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLDWLDLLDD last 10
scored 16
from 15.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.7 xG
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.53–0.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Eintracht Frankfurt 1.82 xGSt. Pauli 0.74 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking right
St. Pauli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Hugo Larsson |
| 3' |
 St. Pauli |
Manolis Saliakas | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Morgan Guilavogui |
| 5' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Larsson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Ekitike |
| 9' |
St. Pauli |
Oladapo Afolayan | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hauke Wahl |
| 14' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Tuta |
| 14' |
St. Pauli |
Morgan Guilavogui | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ben Voll |
| 14' |
St. Pauli |
Morgan Guilavogui | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 17' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Arthur Theate |
| 21' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 33' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ellyes Skhiri |
| 65' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.50 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ansgar Knauff |
| 69' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Rasmus Kristensen |
| 70' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Michy Batshuayi | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Farès Chaïbi |
| 84' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robin Koch |
| 90' |
St. Pauli |
Noah Weißhaupt | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Carlo Boukhalfa |
| 94' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Michy Batshuayi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rasmus Kristensen |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Kristensen DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.60 | 0.09 | 1.26 |
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.73 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.69 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.55 | 1.01 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.62 |
| Nathaniel Brown DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.60 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Ansgar Knauff AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.74 |
| Ellyes Skhiri MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.61 |
| Tuta DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Jean Négoce AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Michy Batshuayi Sub | 41 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Can Uzun Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Farès Chaïbi Sub | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Nnamdi Collins Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manolis Saliakas DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Eric Smith MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Nemeth DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Danel Sinani FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Carlo Boukhalfa MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Ben Voll GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| Morgan Guilavogui AMC | 87 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.04 | 0.61 |
| Lars Ritzka DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Oladapo Afolayan AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Philipp Treu DML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Adam Dzwigala Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Weißhaupt Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Connor Metcalfe Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robert Wagner Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |