Elche v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 7 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 13
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 9
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.79
Goals − xG
+0.19 – -0.47
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Elche win
53.0%
Draw
26.3%
Real Sociedad win
20.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Elche are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWLDLWDDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.4 xG
conceded 19
from 15.4 xG
Real Sociedad have scored 13 from 13.9 expected and conceded 18 from 19.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLDDLDLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 13.9 xG
conceded 18
from 19.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.48–0.81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.35–1.05 | 1-1 13% | 43% | 48% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Elche 0.81 xGReal Sociedad 1.47 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Elche attacking right
Real Sociedad attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Elche |
Adrià Pedrosa | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rafa Mir |
| 5' |
 Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Brais Méndez |
| 8' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
| 12' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
| 15' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 24' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Brais Méndez |
| 24' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 25' |
Elche |
Rodrigo Mendoza | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Josan |
| 28' |
Elche |
Rodrigo Mendoza | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | David Affengruber |
| 30' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josan |
| 32' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Gorrotxategi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 37' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
| 41' |
Elche |
Adrià Pedrosa | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alvaro Rodríguez |
| 43' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 53' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 56' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Álvaro Núñez |
| 62' |
Elche |
Victor Chust | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Affengruber |
| 64' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Umar Sadiq |
| 65' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Remiro |
| 65' |
Real Sociedad |
Umar Sadiq | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 74' |
Real Sociedad |
Umar Sadiq | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Brais Méndez |
| 88' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 93' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jon Gorrotxategi |
| 95' |
Elche |
Adrià Pedrosa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.17 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Igor Zubeldia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Brais Méndez MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| Carlos Soler MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| Takefusa Kubo MR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Gonçalo Guedes ML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Umar Sadiq Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Arsen Zakharyan Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Pablo Marín Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aihen Muñoz Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luka Sucic Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aritz Elustondo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa Mir ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| Adrià Pedrosa DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Rodrigo Mendoza MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Álvaro Núñez DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| Matías Dituro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.53 |
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.51 |
| Victor Chust DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Marc Aguado DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez FW | 74 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.03 | 0.55 |
| Josan MR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| Hector Fort Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| German Valera Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leo Petrot Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| John Donald Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Redondo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| André Silva Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |