Everton v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
5 – 14
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
4 – 11
xG per shot
0.25 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.03 – 0.50
Goals − xG
-0.23 – -0.44
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
16.9%
Draw
25.1%
Arsenal win
58.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton are conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLLDDLLWD last 10
scored 16
from 14.1 xG
conceded 16
from 18.7 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.0 xG
conceded 5
from 10.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.85–1.76 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.83–1.53 | 0-1 14% | 42% | 44% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 1.23 xGArsenal 1.44 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Arsenal |
Raheem Sterling | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ben White |
| 11' |
Arsenal |
Ben White | 0.15 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ethan Nwaneri |
| 23' |
 Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Idrissa Gueye |
| 33' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Raheem Sterling |
| 37' |
Everton |
Jake O'Brien | 0.27 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 47' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jakub Kiwior |
| 48' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 50' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Idrissa Gueye |
| 51' |
Everton |
Abdoulaye Doucouré | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Idrissa Gueye |
| 52' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Myles Lewis-Skelly |
| 53' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 58' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.12 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 82' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kieran Tierney |
| 83' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kieran Tierney |
| 84' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 88' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kieran Tierney |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Trossard FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Mikel Merino MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Jakub Kiwior DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.38 |
| Jorginho MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Ben White DR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Raheem Sterling FWL | 52 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| Ethan Nwaneri FWR | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Bukayo Saka Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Gabriel Martinelli Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Jurriën Timber Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Martin Odegaard Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Kieran Tierney Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake O'Brien DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jack Harrison AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AML | 81 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Nathan Patterson DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tim Iroegbunam DMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Beto FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Garner Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armando Broja Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Alcaraz Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ashley Young Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dwight McNeil Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |