Everton v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 23 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 11
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 6
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.26 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-0.56 – -0.45
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
30.0%
Draw
32.1%
Manchester United win
37.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton are conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLLDDLLWD last 10
scored 16
from 14.1 xG
conceded 16
from 18.7 xG
Manchester United are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWWWDWWLW last 10
scored 20
from 21.8 xG
conceded 13
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.12–1.28 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.30–1.53 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 57% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 0.56 xGManchester United 1.45 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harrison Armstrong |
| 3' |
 Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 8' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Casemiro |
| 19' |
Manchester United |
Luke Shaw | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 38' |
Everton |
James Garner | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Everton |
Harrison Armstrong | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall |
| 45' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 47' |
Everton |
Tim Iroegbunam | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | James Garner |
| 50' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.61 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 54' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Casemiro |
| 62' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 63' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jarrad Branthwaite |
| 65' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 78' |
Everton |
James Tarkowski | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | James Garner |
| 78' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Beto |
| 81' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | James Tarkowski |
| 92' |
Everton |
Tyrique George | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| James Garner DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| Thierno Barry FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Tim Iroegbunam DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Harrison Armstrong AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.18 |
| Tyrique George Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Beto Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Cunha AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Luke Shaw DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Diogo Dalot DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Casemiro DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Leny Yoro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Senne Lammens GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Bryan Mbeumo FW | 81 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.69 | 0.53 | 1.22 |
| Amad Diallo Traore AMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| Benjamin Sesko Sub | 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Noussair Mazraoui Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ayden Heaven Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |