FC Heidenheim v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 12
On target
6 – 8
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
1.20 – 0.76
Goals − xG
+0.71 – +0.73
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Heidenheim win
16.4%
Draw
23.0%
VfB Stuttgart win
60.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.95–1.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.40–2.16 | 1-2 9% | 69% | 67% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Heidenheim 2.29 xGVfB Stuttgart 2.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Heidenheim attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 17' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 19' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Eren Sami Dinkci | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 24' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chris Führich |
| 26' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 33' |
FC Heidenheim |
Arijon Ibrahimovic | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 36' |
FC Heidenheim |
Eren Sami Dinkci | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Patrick Mainka |
| 36' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chris Führich |
| 43' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 46' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 49' |
FC Heidenheim |
Arijon Ibrahimovic | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eren Sami Dinkci |
| 52' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Chema Andres |
| 57' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 68' |
FC Heidenheim |
Stefan Schimmer | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 68' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 81' |
FC Heidenheim |
Arijon Ibrahimovic | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Stefan Schimmer |
| 81' |
FC Heidenheim |
Sirlord Conteh | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 87' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nikolas Nartey |
| 90' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Stefan Schimmer |
| 94' |
FC Heidenheim |
Adam Kölle | 0.41 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hennes Behrens |
| 94' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Atakan Karazor |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Chema Andres DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Ramon Hendriks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Lorenz Assignon DR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Chris Führich AML | 73 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.08 | 0.61 |
| Bilal El Khannouss AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| Tiago Tomás AMR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Deniz Undav Sub | 31 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Jamie Leweling Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Nikolas Nartey Sub | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.52 |
| Joshua Vagnoman Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Atakan Karazor Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arijon Ibrahimovic DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.98 | 0.06 | 0.25 |
| Eren Sami Dinkci AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.35 |
| Benedikt Gimber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Diant Ramaj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Hennes Behrens DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.00 |
| Julian Niehues MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Siersleben DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Conteh AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar Traoré Sub | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sirlord Conteh Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Stefan Schimmer Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| Adam Kölle Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niklas Dorsch Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |