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FC Twente v Telstar — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 9 September 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
FC Twente win
61.2%
model 62.8%
Draw
20.5%
model 22.0%
Telstar win
18.3%
model 15.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (222 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.3%
  2. 2-0 10.1%
  3. 2-1 9.9%
  4. 1-0 8.4%
  5. 3-0 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.560.3% Under 2.539.7%
BTTS yes56.1% BTTS no43.9%
FC Twente 1+88.2% FC Twente 2+63.0%
Telstar 1+62.4% Telstar 2+25.7%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.98. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
76/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
FC Twente (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 45%
63.5% fair odds 1.58
strong signal · 877 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Telstar not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.3% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • FC Twente carry the stronger rating, 1664 Elo against 1509.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Twente have an estimated 61.2% win probability, against 20.5% for the draw and 18.3% for Telstar. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.14 for FC Twente and 0.98 for Telstar.

Why FC Twente

FC Twente carry the stronger rating, 1664 Elo against 1509. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 20.5%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Telstar can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Twente, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Telstar, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Twente: 59% possession, 22.4 shots a match, 9.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Telstar: 45% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Twente's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

FC Twente are the model's most likely outcome at 61.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.3%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.14–0.98 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.88–0.97 1-1 12% 54% 54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente to win 57.3% 54.1% 44.6% 1.21× 1.85
Draw 24.7% 24.4% 25.3% 0.97× 4.09
Telstar to win 18.0% 19.3% 30.3% 0.64× 5.17
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente & not both score 30.8% 29.7% 23.4% 1.27× 3.37
FC Twente & both teams score 26.6% 25.2% 21.3% 1.18× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 17.7% 17.9% 21.9% 0.82× 5.58
Telstar & both teams score 9.7% 8.4% 17.3% 0.48× 11.94
Telstar & not both score 8.3% 8.4% 13.2% 0.64× 11.94
Draw & not both score 7.0% 8.4% 3.5% 2.38× 11.95
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente & over 1.5 47.7% 45.2% 36.4% 1.24× 2.21
FC Twente & over 2.5 37.5% 34.9% 29.1% 1.20× 2.86
FC Twente & under 3.5 36.1% 34.9% 27.6% 1.27× 2.86
FC Twente & over 3.5 21.2% 21.6% 17.2% 1.26× 4.62
FC Twente & under 2.5 19.8% 18.0% 15.6% 1.15× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 18.8% 18.0% 15.0% 1.20× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.8% 18.0% 15.0% 1.20× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 17.7% 18.0% 21.9% 0.82× 5.56
Telstar & over 1.5 13.6% 12.9% 26.3% 0.49× 7.77
Telstar & under 3.5 13.2% 12.9% 20.1% 0.64× 7.78
Telstar & over 2.5 10.8% 12.9% 20.5% 0.63× 7.78
FC Twente & under 1.5 9.6% 7.9% 8.3% 0.95× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 5.9% 7.9% 10.4% 0.76× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 5.9% 7.9% 10.4% 0.76× 12.69
Telstar & under 2.5 7.1% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 7.0% 7.9% 3.5% 2.24× 12.69
Telstar & over 3.5 4.8% 4.8% 10.4% 0.46× 20.93
Telstar & under 1.5 4.4% 4.8% 4.1% 1.16× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente (1UP) 70.6% 75.5% 1.33
Telstar (1UP) 36.4% 33.8% 2.96
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente (2UP) 57.3% 55.2% 1.81
Telstar (2UP) 18.0% 17.3% 5.78
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente to win 2nd half 46.6% 45.7% 2.19
2nd half drawn 33.9% 34.5% 2.90
Telstar to win 2nd half 19.5% 19.4% 5.16
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar (+2.5) 83.7% 82.4% 86.7% 0.95× 1.21
FC Twente (+0.5) 82.0% 82.4% 69.7% 1.18× 1.21
Telstar (+1.5) 65.7% 68.7% 74.6% 0.92× 1.46
FC Twente (-0.5) 57.3% 57.0% 44.6% 1.28× 1.75
Telstar (+0.5) 42.7% 43.0% 55.4% 0.78× 2.33
FC Twente (-1.5) 34.3% 31.3% 25.4% 1.23× 3.20
Telstar (-0.5) 18.0% 17.6% 30.3% 0.58× 5.68
FC Twente (-2.5) 16.3% 17.6% 13.3% 1.32× 5.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar to concede 84.7% 81.3% 83.5% 0.97× 1.23
Telstar clean sheet 15.3% 18.7% 16.5% 1.13× 5.36
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar to concede in 1st half 55.4% 57.6% 1.74
Telstar clean sheet in 1st half 44.6% 42.4% 2.36
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar under 6.5 corners 88.0% 84.9% 1.18
Telstar under 5.5 corners 79.4% 75.8% 1.32
Telstar over 2.5 corners 68.1% 68.2% 1.47
Telstar under 4.5 corners 66.8% 68.2% 1.47
Telstar under 3.5 corners 50.4% 52.4% 1.91
Telstar over 3.5 corners 49.6% 47.6% 2.10
Telstar over 4.5 corners 33.2% 31.8% 3.15
Telstar under 2.5 corners 31.9% 31.8% 3.15
Telstar over 5.5 corners 20.6% 24.2% 4.14
Telstar over 6.5 corners 12.0% 15.1% 6.63
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar under 3.5 goals 98.3% 97.6% 94.3% 1.03× 1.03
Telstar under 2.5 goals 92.4% 92.3% 85.0% 1.09× 1.08
Telstar under 1.5 goals 74.5% 71.9% 58.2% 1.24× 1.39
Telstar over 0.5 goals 62.2% 62.9% 73.2% 0.86× 1.59
Telstar under 0.5 goals 37.8% 37.1% 26.8% 1.38× 2.70
Telstar over 1.5 goals 25.5% 28.1% 41.8% 0.67× 3.56
Telstar over 2.5 goals 7.6% 7.7% 15.0% 0.51× 13.07
Telstar over 3.5 goals 1.7% 2.4% 5.7% 0.43× 41.11
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar under 1.5 in 1st half 94.1% 94.2% 1.06
Telstar under 0.5 in 1st half 67.7% 67.9% 1.47
Telstar over 0.5 in 1st half 32.3% 32.1% 3.12
Telstar over 1.5 in 1st half 5.9% 5.8% 17.25
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente (away no bet) 69.9% 66.5% 63.8% 1.04× 1.50
Draw (away no bet) 30.1% 33.5% 36.2% 0.92× 2.99
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar even goals 57.1% 56.9% 57.4% 0.99× 1.76
Telstar odd goals 42.9% 43.1% 42.6% 1.01× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 83.4% 83.2% 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 16.6% 16.8% 5.96
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 66.9% 68.4% 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 33.1% 31.6% 3.16
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 60.0% 55.5% 1.80
FC Twente to score 2+ in a row 48.4% 46.1% 2.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row 24.6% 19.4% 5.16
FC Twente to score 3+ in a row 21.1% 19.3% 5.18
Telstar to score 2+ in a row 17.4% 16.4% 6.09
Telstar to score 3+ in a row 3.7% 2.6% 37.84
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente corners (+3.5) 96.2% 94.0% 1.06
FC Twente corners (+2.5) 93.6% 88.7% 1.13
FC Twente corners (+1.5) 89.5% 84.2% 1.19
FC Twente corners (-1.5) 68.0% 66.8% 1.50
FC Twente corners (-2.5) 58.4% 56.8% 1.76
Telstar corners (+3.5) 51.5% 52.3% 1.91
FC Twente corners (-3.5) 48.5% 47.7% 2.10
Telstar corners (+2.5) 41.6% 43.2% 2.31
Telstar corners (+1.5) 32.0% 33.2% 3.01
Telstar corners (-1.5) 10.5% 15.8% 6.32
Telstar corners (-2.5) 6.4% 11.3% 8.82
Telstar corners (-3.5) 3.8% 6.0% 16.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 42.8% 37.1% 2.70
0-8 corners 28.6% 31.8% 3.15
9-11 corners 28.6% 31.8% 3.15
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 79.9% 76.6% 1.31
Over 8.5 corners 71.4% 72.5% 1.38
Under 12.5 corners 65.9% 67.9% 1.47
Over 9.5 corners 61.9% 62.7% 1.60
Under 11.5 corners 57.2% 57.8% 1.73
Over 10.5 corners 52.2% 52.2% 1.91
Under 10.5 corners 47.8% 47.8% 2.09
Over 11.5 corners 42.8% 42.2% 2.37
Under 9.5 corners 38.1% 37.3% 2.68
Over 12.5 corners 34.1% 32.1% 3.12
Under 8.5 corners 28.6% 27.5% 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 20.1% 23.4% 4.28
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.8% 11.5% 11.6% 0.98× 8.73
2-0 10.2% 11.4% 7.5% 1.53× 8.73
1-0 9.6% 7.4% 8.3% 0.90× 13.46
2-1 9.9% 7.4% 8.0% 0.93× 13.46
0-0 7.0% 7.4% 3.5% 2.11× 13.46
1-2 5.1% 7.4% 8.1% 0.92× 13.46
3-0 6.4% 7.4% 4.3% 1.73× 13.46
3-1 6.2% 7.4% 3.7% 2.02× 13.46
2-2 4.8% 1.7% 8.6% 0.20× 58.56
0-1 4.4% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.57
0-2 2.7% 1.7% 6.0% 0.29× 58.58
0-3 0.9% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 58.59
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.86× 58.59
1-3 1.7% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.58
1-4 0.4% 1.7% 2.1% 0.80× 58.59
2-3 1.6% 1.7% 2.5% 0.70× 58.58
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.5% 3.72× 58.59
3-2 3.0% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.58
3-3 1.0% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.59
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 2.79× 58.59
4-0 3.0% 1.7% 1.8% 0.93× 58.58
4-1 2.9% 1.7% 3.2% 0.53× 58.58
4-2 1.4% 1.7% 1.2% 1.39× 58.58
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 2.79× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 11.14× 58.59
Any other score 4.5% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.57
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente leading at HT (DNB) 72.2% 71.3% 1.40
Telstar leading at HT (DNB) 27.8% 28.7% 3.49
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente or draw (1X) 82.0% 80.7% 69.7% 1.16× 1.24
FC Twente or Telstar (12) 75.3% 75.6% 74.7% 1.01× 1.32
Telstar or draw (X2) 42.7% 45.9% 55.4% 0.83× 2.18
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente or draw at HT 83.6% 84.2% 1.19
FC Twente or Telstar at HT 59.1% 56.9% 1.76
Telstar or draw at HT 57.3% 56.8% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente or draw (1UP) 82.0% 88.4% 1.13
Telstar or draw (1UP) 42.7% 52.7% 1.90
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente or draw in 2nd half 80.5% 80.6% 1.24
FC Twente or Telstar in 2nd half 66.1% 65.5% 1.53
Telstar or draw in 2nd half 53.4% 54.3% 1.84
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 59.6% 58.4% 1.71
Neither half drawn 40.4% 41.6% 2.40
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente (DNB) 76.1% 74.6% 59.5% 1.25× 1.34
Telstar (DNB) 23.9% 25.4% 40.5% 0.63× 3.94
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente to score first 61.2% 64.2% 1.56
Telstar to score first 31.8% 26.9% 3.71
No goal scored 7.0% 7.4% 13.56
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 53.9% 51.5% 60.2% 0.86× 1.94
Not both teams to score 46.1% 48.5% 39.8% 1.22× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 42.2% 41.5% 48.7% 0.85× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 33.9% 34.4% 28.8% 1.19× 2.91
Not both score & over 2.5 12.1% 12.3% 11.2% 1.10× 8.11
Both score & under 2.5 11.8% 12.3% 11.6% 1.06× 8.11
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 85.7% 85.7% 80.6% 1.06× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 14.3% 14.3% 19.4% 0.74× 6.97
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.5% 74.4% 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.5% 25.6% 3.91
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 57.6% 59.9% 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 24.3% 21.2% 4.72
Both score 1st half only 12.9% 10.5% 9.53
Both score in both halves 5.2% 6.6% 15.05
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.9% 82.8% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 18.1% 17.2% 5.83
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 57.0% 57.3% 1.75
A half without a goal 43.0% 42.7% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.0% 47.4% 46.9% 1.01× 2.11
4-6 goals 29.3% 26.4% 33.7% 0.78× 3.78
0-1 goals 21.0% 22.8% 15.6% 1.46× 4.38
7+ goals 2.6% 1.8% 4.1% 0.44× 55.16
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar to score exactly 0 37.8% 36.0% 26.8% 1.34× 2.78
Telstar to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.0% 31.5% 1.14× 2.78
Telstar to score exactly 2 17.9% 19.5% 27.0% 0.73× 5.12
Telstar to score 3+ 7.6% 8.5% 15.0% 0.57× 11.79
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente to score 3+ 29.0% 26.5% 23.7% 1.12× 3.77
FC Twente to score exactly 1 28.7% 26.5% 33.1% 0.80× 3.77
FC Twente to score exactly 2 27.0% 26.5% 27.0% 0.98× 3.77
FC Twente to score exactly 0 15.3% 18.9% 16.5% 1.14× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente leading at HT 42.7% 43.2% 2.32
Draw at HT 40.9% 43.1% 2.32
Telstar leading at HT 16.4% 15.8% 6.33
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente -1: 2 42.7% 42.7% 2.34
FC Twente -1: 1 34.3% 30.0% 3.33
FC Twente -1: X 23.1% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar (0:1) 42.7% 42.7% 55.4% 0.77× 2.34
FC Twente (0:1) 34.3% 30.0% 25.4% 1.18× 3.34
Draw (0:1) 23.1% 24.3% 19.3% 1.26× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar (0:2) 65.7% 72.2% 74.6% 0.97× 1.39
Draw (0:2) 18.0% 15.3% 12.3% 1.25× 6.53
FC Twente (0:2) 16.3% 15.3% 13.3% 1.15× 6.53
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar (0:3) 83.7% 85.1% 86.7% 0.98× 1.18
Draw (0:3) 9.9% 5.8% 7.8% 0.74× 17.19
FC Twente (0:3) 6.4% 5.8% 5.7% 1.02× 17.25
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar (0:4) 93.6% 94.7% 94.3% 1.00× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 4.3% 1.2% 2.6% 0.46× 82.97
FC Twente (0:4) 2.1% 1.2% 3.2% 0.37× 83.23
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente (1:0) 82.0% 81.5% 69.7% 1.17× 1.23
Draw (1:0) 11.4% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.81
Telstar (1:0) 6.6% 6.9% 15.6% 0.44× 14.50
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente (2:0) 93.4% 94.0% 84.4% 1.11× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 4.8% 2.3% 8.9% 0.26× 44.10
Telstar (2:0) 1.8% 2.3% 6.9% 0.33× 44.30
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.1% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 26.8% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 26.1% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente to concede 62.2% 63.3% 73.2% 0.87× 1.58
FC Twente clean sheet 37.8% 36.7% 26.8% 1.37× 2.73
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente clean sheet in 1st half 67.7% 68.3% 1.46
FC Twente to concede in 1st half 32.3% 31.7% 3.15
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente over 2.5 corners 93.9% 88.3% 1.13
FC Twente over 3.5 corners 87.1% 85.2% 1.17
FC Twente over 4.5 corners 77.7% 76.1% 1.31
FC Twente over 5.5 corners 66.6% 67.7% 1.48
FC Twente over 6.5 corners 54.9% 53.1% 1.89
FC Twente under 6.5 corners 45.1% 46.9% 2.13
FC Twente under 5.5 corners 33.4% 32.3% 3.10
FC Twente under 4.5 corners 22.3% 23.9% 4.19
FC Twente under 3.5 corners 12.9% 14.8% 6.76
FC Twente under 2.5 corners 6.1% 11.7% 8.56
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente under 3.5 goals 87.9% 87.2% 89.1% 0.98× 1.15
FC Twente over 0.5 goals 84.7% 82.2% 83.5% 0.98× 1.22
FC Twente under 2.5 goals 71.0% 74.2% 76.3% 0.97× 1.35
FC Twente over 1.5 goals 56.0% 58.8% 50.5% 1.16× 1.70
FC Twente under 1.5 goals 44.0% 41.2% 49.5% 0.83× 2.43
FC Twente over 2.5 goals 29.0% 25.8% 23.7% 1.09× 3.88
FC Twente under 0.5 goals 15.3% 17.8% 16.5% 1.08× 5.61
FC Twente over 3.5 goals 12.1% 12.8% 10.9% 1.17× 7.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente under 1.5 in 1st half 80.6% 84.5% 1.18
FC Twente over 0.5 in 1st half 55.4% 57.2% 1.75
FC Twente under 0.5 in 1st half 44.6% 42.8% 2.34
FC Twente over 1.5 in 1st half 19.4% 15.5% 6.46
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 57.9% 56.7% 45.5% 1.25× 1.76
Telstar (home no bet) 42.1% 43.3% 54.5% 0.79× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente even goals 51.2% 50.6% 51.1% 0.99× 1.98
FC Twente odd goals 48.8% 49.4% 48.9% 1.01× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 30.4% 32.4% 3.09
HT 1-0 24.2% 24.3% 4.12
HT 0-1 11.6% 11.0% 9.06
HT 2-0 9.8% 7.1% 14.06
HT 1-1 9.7% 7.1% 14.07
Any other HT score 5.6% 7.1% 14.13
HT 2-1 3.8% 2.2% 44.64
HT 0-2 2.3% 2.2% 44.76
HT 1-2 1.9% 2.2% 44.79
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.2% 44.88
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente at HT / FC Twente at FT 36.2% 41.0% 2.44
Draw at HT / FC Twente at FT 18.3% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.2% 16.8% 5.96
Telstar at HT / Telstar at FT 9.2% 6.1% 16.52
Draw at HT / Telstar at FT 7.3% 6.0% 16.58
FC Twente at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.0% 16.64
Telstar at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.4% 29.11
Telstar at HT / FC Twente at FT 2.8% 3.4% 29.17
FC Twente at HT / Telstar at FT 1.5% 3.4% 29.23
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente to score last 61.4% 62.2% 1.61
Telstar to score last 31.6% 32.7% 3.06
No goal scored 7.0% 7.4% 13.56
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.0% 92.7% 1.08
FC Twente to lead by 1 at any time 70.6% 73.9% 1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 51.5% 50.5% 1.98
FC Twente to lead by 2 at any time 40.8% 39.0% 2.57
Telstar to lead by 1 at any time 36.4% 34.7% 2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 21.6% 19.6% 5.11
FC Twente to lead by 3 at any time 19.0% 15.0% 6.69
Telstar to lead by 2 at any time 11.0% 10.4% 9.59
Telstar to lead by 3 at any time 2.6% 1.6% 63.22
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente most corners 76.7% 73.9% 1.35
Telstar most corners 16.1% 20.6% 4.87
Corners level 7.3% 8.4% 11.92
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.1% 87.4% 87.6% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 77.0% 78.6% 75.8% 1.04× 1.27
2-6 goals 76.3% 78.6% 80.4% 0.98× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.0% 72.4% 75.5% 0.96× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.9% 63.5% 63.7% 1.00× 1.58
1-3 goals 61.1% 63.5% 59.0% 1.08× 1.58
3-6 goals 51.6% 53.1% 55.7% 0.95× 1.88
3-5 goals 47.3% 48.7% 50.8% 0.96× 2.06
2-3 goals 47.0% 48.7% 46.9% 1.04× 2.06
1-2 goals 38.7% 39.2% 36.9% 1.06× 2.55
3-4 goals 38.2% 39.2% 39.1% 1.00× 2.55
4-6 goals 29.3% 30.2% 33.7% 0.90× 3.31
4-5 goals 25.0% 24.5% 28.8% 0.85× 4.09
5-6 goals 13.4% 14.9% 16.8% 0.88× 6.73
7+ goals 2.6% 2.5% 4.1% 0.61× 39.46
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente never behind 56.7% 62.5% 1.60
Telstar never behind 22.4% 24.4% 4.10
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.4% 50.8% 49.0% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.6% 49.2% 51.0% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.0% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 45.0% 48.4% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.7% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.3% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 93.0% 92.3% 96.5% 0.96× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 93.0% 92.3% 91.0% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 84.0% 82.4% 79.2% 1.04× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 79.0% 77.4% 84.4% 0.92× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 68.0% 66.3% 62.3% 1.06× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 54.3% 52.4% 59.7% 0.88× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 45.7% 47.6% 40.3% 1.18× 2.10
Over 3.5 goals 32.0% 33.7% 37.7% 0.90× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 21.0% 22.6% 15.6% 1.45× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 16.0% 17.6% 20.8% 0.85× 5.67
Under 0.5 goals 7.0% 7.7% 3.5% 2.19× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 7.0% 7.7% 9.0% 0.85× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.2% 97.3% 95.7% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.3% 92.5% 89.8% 1.03× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 80.9% 81.1% 75.0% 1.08× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 72.1% 72.6% 79.3% 0.92× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 58.9% 55.5% 51.7% 1.08× 1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 41.1% 44.5% 48.3% 0.92× 2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 27.9% 27.4% 20.7% 1.32× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 19.1% 18.9% 25.0% 0.75× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.7% 7.5% 10.2% 0.74× 13.26
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.8% 2.8% 4.3% 0.63× 36.36
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.0% 89.3% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 69.6% 69.1% 1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half 66.2% 69.0% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 33.8% 31.0% 3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half 30.4% 30.9% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.0% 10.7% 9.36
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.5% 82.9% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 76.9% 79.9% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 50.3% 53.0% 1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 49.7% 47.0% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 23.1% 20.1% 4.98
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.5% 17.1% 5.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar not to score in both halves 85.7% 85.8% 1.17
FC Twente not to score in both halves 63.6% 63.5% 1.57
FC Twente to score in both halves 36.4% 36.5% 2.74
Telstar to score in both halves 14.3% 14.2% 7.03
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 53.9% 54.0% 60.2% 0.90× 1.85
Only FC Twente scores 30.8% 33.3% 23.4% 1.42× 3.00
Only Telstar scores 8.3% 7.2% 13.2% 0.55× 13.93
Neither team scores 7.0% 7.2% 3.5% 2.04× 13.95
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.7% 22.7% 24.8% 0.91× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 22.2% 1.02× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 15.9% 17.4% 17.0% 1.03× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 14.0% 12.1% 12.3% 0.98× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 9.1% 7.6% 11.9% 0.64× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 7.0% 7.6% 3.5% 2.16× 13.14
6 or more goals 7.0% 7.6% 9.0% 0.84× 13.14
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 49.7% 44.9% 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 30.8% 33.8% 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 19.5% 17.0% 5.89
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar not to win both halves 96.7% 97.2% 1.03
FC Twente not to win both halves 79.8% 75.5% 1.32
FC Twente to win both halves 20.2% 24.5% 4.09
Telstar to win both halves 3.3% 2.8% 35.35
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Twente to win either half 69.1% 67.9% 1.47
Telstar to win neither half 67.4% 67.8% 1.48
Telstar to win either half 32.6% 32.2% 3.11
FC Twente to win neither half 30.9% 32.1% 3.11
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Telstar not to win to nil 91.7% 92.0% 86.8% 1.06× 1.09
FC Twente not to win to nil 69.2% 69.7% 76.6% 0.91× 1.44
FC Twente to win to nil 30.8% 30.3% 23.4% 1.29× 3.30
Telstar to win to nil 8.3% 8.0% 13.2% 0.61× 12.55
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 24.7% 24.1% 25.3% 0.96× 4.14
FC Twente by 1 23.1% 24.1% 19.3% 1.25× 4.14
FC Twente by 2 18.0% 16.9% 12.3% 1.38× 5.90
FC Twente by 3+ 16.3% 16.9% 13.3% 1.27× 5.90
Telstar by 1 11.4% 11.8% 14.9% 0.80× 8.47
Telstar by 2 4.8% 2.7% 8.9% 0.31× 36.91
Telstar by 3+ 1.8% 2.7% 6.9% 0.39× 37.01
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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