Fulham v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 9
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
17 – 6
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.88 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.57 – -0.93
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fulham win
55.8%
Draw
26.4%
Burnley win
17.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.85–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.93–0.94 | 1-0 11% | 55% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 3.57 xGBurnley 1.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Burnley attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 8' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Quilindschy Hartman |
| 14' |
 Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oscar Bobb |
| 18' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Timothy Castagne |
| 20' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Quilindschy Hartman |
| 22' |
Fulham |
Timothy Castagne | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 25' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Zian Flemming |
| 25' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 26' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Timothy Castagne |
| 28' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua King |
| 39' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Fulham |
Oscar Bobb | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua King |
| 51' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rodrigo Muniz |
| 51' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Timothy Castagne |
| 59' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lyle Foster |
| 64' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 66' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 72' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Joshua King |
| 74' |
Burnley |
Josh Laurent | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 75' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Quilindschy Hartman |
| 81' |
Burnley |
Quilindschy Hartman | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kyle Walker |
| 84' |
Fulham |
Samuel Chukwueze | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 89' |
Burnley |
Loum Tchaouna | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Zian Flemming |
| 90' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Harrison Reed |
| 91' |
Fulham |
Harrison Reed | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 94' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 96' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sander Berge |
| 96' |
Fulham |
Samuel Chukwueze | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 97' |
Fulham |
Samuel Chukwueze | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zian Flemming FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.18 | 0.11 | 1.29 |
| Josh Laurent DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Jaidon Anthony AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.94 | 1.93 |
| Quilindschy Hartman DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.56 | 1.30 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.18 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Kyle Walker DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.83 |
| Bashir Humphreys DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Ward-Prowse DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Lyle Foster AMR | 81 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1.18 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu Sub | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Hannibal Mejbri AMC | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Marcus Edwards Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ashley Barnes Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loum Tchaouna Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Wilson AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 0.76 |
| Alex Iwobi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.50 |
| Timothy Castagne DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.38 | 0.74 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1.43 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Joshua King AMC | 85 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.89 | 0.34 | 1.64 |
| Rodrigo Muniz FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.31 | 0.89 |
| Oscar Bobb AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Antonee Robinson DL | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Ryan Sessegnon Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Samuel Chukwueze Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Raúl Jiménez Sub | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| Harrison Reed Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.21 |