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Grazer AK v Austria Vienna — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · AUT-Bundesliga · 2627

AUT-Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Grazer AK win
40.4%
model 37.4%
Draw
29.3%
model 27.7%
Austria Vienna win
30.3%
model 34.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.1%
  2. 2-1 8.5%
  3. 1-2 8.2%
  4. 1-0 7.6%
  5. 0-0 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.552.6% Under 2.547.4%
BTTS yes57.6% BTTS no42.4%
Grazer AK 1+75.8% Grazer AK 2+41.5%
Austria Vienna 1+74.4% Austria Vienna 2+39.6%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.36. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
21/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Under 12.5 corners
Corners O/U
80.8% fair odds 1.24
moderate signal · 8470 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Grazer AK (2:0)
Handicap 2:0 · usually 85%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 326 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • They have had 21 days' rest to Austria Vienna's 17.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0106 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Grazer AK have an estimated 40.4% win probability, against 30.3% for Austria Vienna and 29.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.42 for Grazer AK and 1.36 for Austria Vienna.

Why Grazer AK

They have had 21 days' rest to Austria Vienna's 17.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.42 to 1.36. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Austria Vienna can win

Austria Vienna carry the stronger rating, 1480 Elo against 1440.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Grazer AK, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Austria Vienna, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Grazer AK: 49% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Austria Vienna: 44% possession, 7.6 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Grazer AK are the model's most likely outcome at 40.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.42–1.36 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.32–1.46 1-1 13% 53% 57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna to win 39.4% 36.5% 31.4% 1.16× 2.74
Grazer AK to win 33.0% 30.4% 43.6% 0.70× 3.29
Draw 27.6% 27.9% 25.2% 1.10× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw & both teams score 20.3% 21.9% 18.1% 1.21× 4.57
Austria Vienna & both teams score 20.0% 21.9% 16.9% 1.29× 4.57
Austria Vienna & not both score 19.3% 17.9% 14.8% 1.21× 5.58
Grazer AK & both teams score 17.2% 17.9% 21.2% 0.85× 5.58
Grazer AK & not both score 15.9% 17.9% 22.6% 0.79× 5.58
Draw & not both score 7.3% 8.4% 7.4% 1.13× 11.95
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna & over 1.5 31.5% 30.9% 25.5% 1.21× 3.24
Austria Vienna & under 3.5 26.4% 26.0% 22.1% 1.18× 3.84
Grazer AK & over 1.5 26.0% 26.0% 34.8% 0.75× 3.84
Austria Vienna & over 2.5 24.9% 21.6% 20.0% 1.08× 4.62
Grazer AK & under 3.5 22.7% 21.6% 30.5% 0.71× 4.62
Grazer AK & over 2.5 20.6% 21.6% 27.6% 0.78× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 20.3% 21.6% 18.1% 1.20× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 20.4% 21.6% 19.5% 1.11× 4.62
Draw & under 3.5 20.4% 21.6% 19.5% 1.11× 4.62
Austria Vienna & under 2.5 14.5% 12.9% 11.7% 1.10× 7.77
Grazer AK & under 2.5 12.4% 12.9% 16.2% 0.79× 7.78
Austria Vienna & over 3.5 12.9% 12.9% 9.5% 1.35× 7.78
Grazer AK & over 3.5 10.3% 12.9% 13.3% 0.96× 7.78
Draw & under 1.5 7.3% 7.9% 7.4% 1.07× 12.69
Austria Vienna & under 1.5 7.9% 7.9% 6.2% 1.27× 12.69
Grazer AK & under 1.5 7.0% 7.9% 9.0% 0.87× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 7.2% 7.9% 6.0% 1.32× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 7.2% 7.9% 6.0% 1.32× 12.69
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna (1UP) 56.6% 57.9% 1.73
Grazer AK (1UP) 51.2% 52.7% 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna (2UP) 39.4% 37.1% 2.69
Grazer AK (2UP) 33.0% 31.1% 3.22
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna to win 2nd half 35.7% 36.0% 2.78
2nd half drawn 35.6% 36.0% 2.78
Grazer AK to win 2nd half 28.7% 26.3% 3.80
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna (+2.5) 94.7% 92.1% 90.7% 1.02× 1.09
Austria Vienna (+1.5) 84.9% 82.4% 76.9% 1.07× 1.21
Austria Vienna (+0.5) 67.0% 68.7% 56.4% 1.22× 1.46
Grazer AK (+0.5) 60.6% 62.9% 68.6% 0.92× 1.59
Austria Vienna (-0.5) 39.4% 37.1% 31.4% 1.18× 2.69
Grazer AK (-0.5) 33.0% 31.3% 43.6% 0.72× 3.20
Grazer AK (-1.5) 15.1% 17.6% 23.1% 0.76× 5.69
Grazer AK (-2.5) 5.3% 7.9% 9.3% 0.85× 12.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna to concede 73.3% 76.5% 78.1% 0.98× 1.31
Austria Vienna clean sheet 26.7% 23.5% 21.9% 1.07× 4.26
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna clean sheet in 1st half 56.6% 57.6% 1.74
Austria Vienna to concede in 1st half 43.4% 42.4% 2.36
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna under 6.5 corners 79.5% 75.8% 1.32
Austria Vienna over 2.5 corners 75.6% 75.8% 1.32
Austria Vienna under 5.5 corners 69.1% 68.2% 1.47
Austria Vienna over 3.5 corners 59.8% 56.9% 1.76
Austria Vienna under 4.5 corners 55.7% 56.9% 1.76
Austria Vienna over 4.5 corners 44.3% 43.1% 2.32
Austria Vienna under 3.5 corners 40.2% 43.1% 2.32
Austria Vienna over 5.5 corners 30.9% 31.8% 3.15
Austria Vienna under 2.5 corners 24.4% 24.2% 4.13
Austria Vienna over 6.5 corners 20.5% 24.2% 4.14
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna under 3.5 goals 93.9% 92.4% 96.9% 0.95× 1.08
Austria Vienna under 2.5 goals 81.9% 81.5% 86.9% 0.94× 1.23
Austria Vienna over 0.5 goals 76.8% 76.2% 70.2% 1.09× 1.31
Austria Vienna under 1.5 goals 57.1% 59.6% 64.8% 0.92× 1.68
Austria Vienna over 1.5 goals 42.9% 40.4% 35.2% 1.15× 2.48
Austria Vienna under 0.5 goals 23.2% 23.8% 29.8% 0.80× 4.20
Austria Vienna over 2.5 goals 18.1% 18.5% 13.1% 1.41× 5.40
Austria Vienna over 3.5 goals 6.1% 7.6% 3.1% 2.47× 13.08
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna under 1.5 in 1st half 88.3% 89.6% 1.12
Austria Vienna under 0.5 in 1st half 55.7% 62.8% 1.59
Austria Vienna over 0.5 in 1st half 44.3% 37.2% 2.69
Austria Vienna over 1.5 in 1st half 11.7% 10.4% 9.61
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK (away no bet) 54.5% 51.3% 63.3% 0.81× 1.95
Draw (away no bet) 45.5% 48.7% 36.7% 1.33× 2.05
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna even goals 52.7% 52.7% 53.6% 0.98× 1.90
Austria Vienna odd goals 47.3% 47.3% 46.4% 1.02× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.5% 83.3% 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 15.5% 16.7% 5.98
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 65.6% 68.3% 1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals 34.4% 31.7% 3.15
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 56.5% 55.3% 1.81
Austria Vienna to score 2+ in a row 34.1% 28.6% 3.50
Grazer AK to score 2+ in a row 29.2% 25.2% 3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row 19.8% 16.5% 6.07
Austria Vienna to score 3+ in a row 11.4% 12.0% 8.36
Grazer AK to score 3+ in a row 8.7% 5.6% 17.83
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK corners (+3.5) 85.7% 84.2% 1.19
Grazer AK corners (+2.5) 79.0% 75.5% 1.33
Austria Vienna corners (+3.5) 78.9% 75.5% 1.33
Austria Vienna corners (+2.5) 70.6% 69.9% 1.43
Grazer AK corners (+1.5) 70.5% 69.9% 1.43
Austria Vienna corners (+1.5) 60.9% 61.7% 1.62
Grazer AK corners (-1.5) 39.1% 38.3% 2.61
Austria Vienna corners (-1.5) 29.5% 30.1% 3.32
Grazer AK corners (-2.5) 29.4% 30.1% 3.32
Grazer AK corners (-3.5) 21.1% 24.5% 4.08
Austria Vienna corners (-2.5) 21.0% 24.5% 4.08
Austria Vienna corners (-3.5) 14.3% 15.8% 6.31
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 43.6% 37.1% 2.70
9-11 corners 28.5% 31.8% 3.15
12+ corners 27.9% 31.8% 3.15
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 79.2% 76.6% 1.31
Under 11.5 corners 72.1% 72.5% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 66.9% 67.9% 1.47
Under 10.5 corners 63.6% 62.7% 1.60
Over 8.5 corners 56.4% 57.8% 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 53.9% 52.3% 1.91
Over 9.5 corners 46.1% 47.8% 2.09
Under 8.5 corners 43.6% 42.2% 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 36.4% 37.3% 2.68
Under 7.5 corners 33.1% 32.1% 3.12
Over 11.5 corners 27.9% 27.5% 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 20.8% 23.4% 4.28
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.1% 11.5% 12.4% 0.93× 8.73
1-2 8.7% 7.4% 7.9% 0.95× 13.46
2-1 7.9% 7.4% 10.5% 0.71× 13.46
0-0 7.3% 7.4% 7.4% 1.01× 13.46
0-1 7.9% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.46
0-2 6.6% 7.4% 5.7% 1.30× 13.46
1-0 7.0% 7.4% 9.0% 0.82× 13.46
2-0 5.4% 7.4% 7.4% 1.01× 13.46
2-2 5.8% 7.4% 5.5% 1.36× 13.46
2-3 2.8% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.58
2-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3.58× 58.59
3-0 2.4% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.58
3-1 3.5% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.57
3-2 2.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.02× 58.58
3-3 1.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.39× 58.59
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.7% 2.39× 58.59
4-0 0.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.79× 58.59
4-1 1.2% 1.7% 1.9% 0.90× 58.59
4-2 0.8% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.59
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 7.17× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.17× 58.59
Any other score 2.8% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.58
0-3 3.2% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.57
0-4 1.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.58× 58.59
1-3 4.3% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.57
1-4 1.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.79× 58.58
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna leading at HT (DNB) 50.9% 55.5% 1.80
Grazer AK leading at HT (DNB) 49.1% 44.5% 2.25
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK or Austria Vienna (12) 72.4% 72.1% 74.8% 0.96× 1.39
Austria Vienna or draw (X2) 67.0% 69.6% 56.4% 1.23× 1.44
Grazer AK or draw (1X) 60.6% 63.5% 68.6% 0.93× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna or draw at HT 72.2% 74.6% 1.34
Grazer AK or draw at HT 71.2% 74.6% 1.34
Grazer AK or Austria Vienna at HT 56.6% 56.8% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna or draw (1UP) 67.0% 75.9% 1.32
Grazer AK or draw (1UP) 60.6% 71.2% 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna or draw in 2nd half 71.3% 73.7% 1.36
Grazer AK or Austria Vienna in 2nd half 64.4% 64.0% 1.56
Grazer AK or draw in 2nd half 64.3% 64.0% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.3% 61.5% 1.63
Neither half drawn 37.7% 38.5% 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna (DNB) 54.4% 51.0% 41.9% 1.22× 1.96
Grazer AK (DNB) 45.6% 49.0% 58.1% 0.84× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna to score first 48.6% 45.6% 2.19
Grazer AK to score first 44.0% 41.7% 2.40
No goal scored 7.3% 7.4% 13.53
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 57.5% 54.8% 55.7% 0.98× 1.83
Not both teams to score 42.5% 45.2% 44.3% 1.02× 2.21
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 44.4% 41.6% 43.6% 0.95× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 34.3% 34.4% 34.8% 0.99× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 13.1% 12.3% 12.4% 1.00× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.3% 8.4% 9.8% 0.86× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 83.7% 83.2% 86.9% 0.96× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 16.3% 16.8% 13.1% 1.28× 5.95
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 68.7% 67.7% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 31.3% 32.3% 3.10
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 55.2% 59.7% 1.68
Both score 2nd half only 25.4% 26.0% 3.85
Both score 1st half only 13.5% 10.5% 9.52
Both score in both halves 5.9% 6.7% 15.00
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 80.6% 82.8% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 19.4% 17.2% 5.81
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 55.6% 57.2% 1.75
A half without a goal 44.4% 42.8% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.3% 47.4% 49.8% 0.95× 2.11
4-6 goals 28.1% 26.4% 26.7% 0.99× 3.78
0-1 goals 22.2% 22.8% 22.1% 1.03× 4.38
7+ goals 2.4% 1.8% 1.9% 0.95× 55.19
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna to score exactly 1 33.9% 33.9% 35.2% 0.96× 2.95
Austria Vienna to score exactly 2 24.8% 22.4% 22.4% 1.00× 4.47
Austria Vienna to score exactly 0 23.2% 22.4% 29.8% 0.75× 4.47
Austria Vienna to score 3+ 18.1% 19.5% 13.1% 1.49× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK to score exactly 1 35.2% 35.6% 34.8% 1.02× 2.81
Grazer AK to score exactly 0 26.7% 26.5% 21.9% 1.21× 3.77
Grazer AK to score exactly 2 23.3% 23.3% 25.5% 0.91× 4.30
Grazer AK to score 3+ 14.8% 14.4% 18.3% 0.78× 6.96
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.4% 43.2% 2.31
Austria Vienna leading at HT 28.8% 25.4% 3.94
Grazer AK leading at HT 27.8% 25.4% 3.94
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna -1: 1 60.6% 62.4% 1.60
Austria Vienna -1: X 19.9% 17.5% 5.70
Austria Vienna -1: 2 19.4% 17.5% 5.70
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna (0:1) 67.0% 65.5% 56.4% 1.16× 1.53
Draw (0:1) 17.9% 17.8% 20.7% 0.86× 5.62
Grazer AK (0:1) 15.1% 17.8% 23.1% 0.77× 5.63
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna (0:2) 84.9% 82.8% 76.9% 1.08× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 9.8% 7.7% 14.0% 0.55× 12.95
Grazer AK (0:2) 5.3% 7.7% 9.3% 0.83× 13.00
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna (0:3) 94.7% 92.7% 90.7% 1.02× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 3.8% 2.4% 6.2% 0.38× 41.97
Grazer AK (0:3) 1.5% 2.4% 3.3% 0.71× 42.07
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna (0:4) 98.5% 98.1% 96.7% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.1% 1.2% 1.7% 0.72× 83.34
Grazer AK (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 1.9% 0.63× 83.43
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK (1:0) 60.6% 65.1% 68.6% 0.95× 1.54
Draw (1:0) 19.9% 17.0% 16.4% 1.04× 5.87
Austria Vienna (1:0) 19.4% 17.0% 15.2% 1.12× 5.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK (2:0) 80.6% 84.5% 84.8% 1.00× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 12.0% 10.4% 10.2% 1.02× 9.62
Austria Vienna (2:0) 7.4% 6.5% 5.2% 1.23× 15.49
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.5% 48.2% 2.07
Halves equal 26.3% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 26.2% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK to concede 76.8% 75.8% 70.2% 1.08× 1.32
Grazer AK clean sheet 23.2% 24.2% 29.8% 0.81× 4.14
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK clean sheet in 1st half 55.7% 62.8% 1.59
Grazer AK to concede in 1st half 44.3% 37.2% 2.69
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK over 2.5 corners 80.5% 81.3% 1.23
Grazer AK under 6.5 corners 73.3% 71.5% 1.40
Grazer AK over 3.5 corners 66.5% 67.7% 1.48
Grazer AK under 5.5 corners 61.9% 62.0% 1.61
Grazer AK over 4.5 corners 51.7% 53.0% 1.89
Grazer AK under 4.5 corners 48.3% 47.0% 2.13
Grazer AK over 5.5 corners 38.1% 38.0% 2.63
Grazer AK under 3.5 corners 33.5% 32.3% 3.10
Grazer AK over 6.5 corners 26.7% 28.5% 3.51
Grazer AK under 2.5 corners 19.5% 18.7% 5.35
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK under 3.5 goals 95.5% 96.3% 92.4% 1.04× 1.04
Grazer AK under 2.5 goals 85.2% 87.2% 81.7% 1.07× 1.15
Grazer AK over 0.5 goals 73.3% 74.2% 78.1% 0.95× 1.35
Grazer AK under 1.5 goals 61.9% 63.4% 56.4% 1.12× 1.58
Grazer AK over 1.5 goals 38.1% 36.6% 43.6% 0.84× 2.73
Grazer AK under 0.5 goals 26.7% 25.8% 21.9% 1.18× 3.88
Grazer AK over 2.5 goals 14.8% 12.8% 18.3% 0.70× 7.82
Grazer AK over 3.5 goals 4.5% 3.7% 7.6% 0.48× 27.36
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK under 1.5 in 1st half 88.8% 90.0% 1.11
Grazer AK under 0.5 in 1st half 56.6% 57.2% 1.75
Grazer AK over 0.5 in 1st half 43.4% 42.8% 2.34
Grazer AK over 1.5 in 1st half 11.2% 10.0% 10.02
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna (home no bet) 58.8% 56.7% 55.5% 1.02× 1.76
Draw (home no bet) 41.2% 43.3% 44.5% 0.97× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK even goals 53.6% 50.7% 52.1% 0.97× 1.97
Grazer AK odd goals 46.4% 49.3% 47.9% 1.03× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.8% 32.4% 3.08
HT 0-1 18.3% 18.9% 5.29
HT 1-0 17.8% 18.9% 5.30
HT 1-1 10.7% 11.0% 9.06
HT 0-2 5.4% 7.1% 14.13
HT 2-0 5.1% 7.1% 14.14
Any other HT score 4.1% 2.2% 44.61
HT 1-2 3.1% 2.2% 44.70
HT 2-1 3.0% 2.2% 44.70
HT 2-2 0.9% 2.2% 44.87
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna at HT / Austria Vienna at FT 21.7% 22.1% 4.52
Grazer AK at HT / Grazer AK at FT 19.1% 16.8% 5.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.7% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Austria Vienna at FT 14.8% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Grazer AK at FT 11.8% 12.7% 7.90
Grazer AK at HT / Draw at FT 5.8% 6.0% 16.62
Austria Vienna at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.0% 16.64
Grazer AK at HT / Austria Vienna at FT 2.8% 3.4% 29.17
Austria Vienna at HT / Grazer AK at FT 2.1% 3.4% 29.20
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna to score last 48.7% 47.0% 2.13
Grazer AK to score last 44.0% 40.2% 2.49
No goal scored 7.3% 7.4% 13.53
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.7% 92.7% 1.08
Austria Vienna to lead by 1 at any time 56.6% 55.0% 1.82
Grazer AK to lead by 1 at any time 51.2% 50.5% 1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 46.8% 44.0% 2.27
Austria Vienna to lead by 2 at any time 25.9% 25.1% 3.98
Grazer AK to lead by 2 at any time 21.2% 19.6% 5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 16.4% 14.9% 6.71
Austria Vienna to lead by 3 at any time 9.4% 6.6% 15.23
Grazer AK to lead by 3 at any time 7.0% 6.5% 15.35
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK most corners 49.8% 46.9% 2.13
Austria Vienna most corners 39.5% 38.6% 2.59
Corners level 10.8% 10.6% 9.40
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.3% 87.4% 86.2% 1.01× 1.14
1-4 goals 77.7% 78.6% 79.3% 0.99× 1.27
2-6 goals 75.4% 78.6% 76.2% 1.03× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.4% 72.4% 71.4% 1.01× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.8% 63.5% 64.5% 0.98× 1.58
1-3 goals 62.2% 63.5% 64.5% 0.98× 1.58
3-6 goals 50.3% 53.1% 51.4% 1.03× 1.88
2-3 goals 47.3% 48.7% 49.8% 0.98× 2.06
3-5 goals 46.3% 48.7% 46.7% 1.04× 2.06
1-2 goals 40.0% 43.6% 39.8% 1.10× 2.29
3-4 goals 37.7% 39.2% 39.8% 0.99× 2.55
4-6 goals 28.1% 30.2% 26.7% 1.13× 3.31
4-5 goals 24.1% 24.5% 21.9% 1.12× 4.09
5-6 goals 12.6% 14.9% 11.9% 1.25× 6.73
7+ goals 2.4% 2.5% 1.9% 1.33× 39.47
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna never behind 41.5% 48.2% 2.08
Grazer AK never behind 36.0% 44.7% 2.24
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.5% 50.8% 47.9% 1.06× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.5% 49.2% 52.1% 0.94× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.4% 57.8% 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.6% 42.2% 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.7% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.3% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 93.6% 92.3% 93.3% 0.99× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 92.7% 92.3% 92.6% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 85.0% 87.7% 86.4% 1.01× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 77.8% 77.4% 77.9% 0.99× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 69.6% 66.3% 71.7% 0.92× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 52.6% 52.4% 53.1% 0.99× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 47.4% 47.6% 46.9% 1.01× 2.10
Over 3.5 goals 30.4% 33.7% 28.3% 1.19× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 22.2% 22.6% 22.1% 1.02× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 15.0% 12.3% 13.6% 0.91× 8.11
Under 0.5 goals 7.3% 7.7% 7.4% 1.05× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 6.4% 7.7% 6.7% 1.16× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.5% 97.3% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.0% 92.5% 92.8% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 82.3% 81.1% 84.1% 0.96× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 70.3% 72.6% 70.6% 1.03× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 60.9% 62.1% 62.3% 1.00× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 39.1% 37.9% 37.7% 1.01× 2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 29.7% 27.4% 29.4% 0.93× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 17.7% 18.9% 15.9% 1.19× 5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.0% 7.5% 7.2% 1.05× 13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.5% 2.7% 2.0% 1.37× 36.37
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.0% 89.4% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.2% 69.0% 1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half 67.8% 69.0% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.2% 31.0% 3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.8% 31.0% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.0% 10.6% 9.39
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.0% 82.8% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 77.6% 79.9% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 51.1% 53.0% 1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 48.9% 47.0% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.4% 20.1% 4.99
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.0% 17.2% 5.83
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK not to score in both halves 77.1% 78.4% 1.28
Austria Vienna not to score in both halves 74.2% 74.4% 1.35
Austria Vienna to score in both halves 25.8% 25.6% 3.90
Grazer AK to score in both halves 23.0% 21.6% 4.63
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 57.5% 58.2% 55.7% 1.04× 1.72
Only Austria Vienna scores 19.3% 16.1% 14.8% 1.09× 6.20
Only Grazer AK scores 15.9% 16.1% 22.6% 0.71× 6.21
Neither team scores 7.3% 7.2% 7.4% 0.97× 13.94
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.1% 25.0% 25.0% 1.00× 4.01
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.6% 25.0% 0.91× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 15.5% 17.4% 15.0% 1.16× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 14.9% 12.1% 15.0% 0.80× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 8.6% 7.6% 7.1% 1.07× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 7.3% 7.6% 7.4% 1.03× 13.14
6 or more goals 6.4% 7.6% 6.7% 1.14× 13.14
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 48.9% 44.9% 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 31.1% 33.8% 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 20.0% 17.0% 5.89
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK not to win both halves 91.9% 93.9% 1.06
Austria Vienna not to win both halves 89.5% 88.1% 1.14
Austria Vienna to win both halves 10.5% 11.9% 8.43
Grazer AK to win both halves 8.1% 6.1% 16.52
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Austria Vienna to win either half 54.0% 54.8% 1.82
Grazer AK to win neither half 51.6% 54.7% 1.83
Grazer AK to win either half 48.4% 45.3% 2.21
Austria Vienna to win neither half 46.0% 45.2% 2.21
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Grazer AK not to win to nil 84.1% 83.0% 77.4% 1.07× 1.21
Austria Vienna not to win to nil 80.7% 83.0% 85.2% 0.97× 1.21
Austria Vienna to win to nil 19.3% 17.0% 14.8% 1.15× 5.87
Grazer AK to win to nil 15.9% 17.0% 22.6% 0.75× 5.88
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.6% 27.8% 25.2% 1.10× 3.59
Austria Vienna by 1 19.9% 17.0% 16.4% 1.03× 5.90
Grazer AK by 1 17.9% 16.9% 20.7% 0.82× 5.90
Austria Vienna by 2 12.0% 11.8% 10.2% 1.15× 8.46
Grazer AK by 2 9.8% 7.3% 14.0% 0.52× 13.79
Austria Vienna by 3+ 7.4% 7.2% 5.2% 1.38× 13.80
Grazer AK by 3+ 5.3% 7.2% 9.3% 0.78× 13.81
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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