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Hertha Berlin v 1. FC Magdeburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627

GER-2. Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Hertha Berlin win
49.8%
model 47.0%
Draw
21.9%
model 23.8%
1. FC Magdeburg win
28.2%
model 29.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.8%
  2. 2-1 9.3%
  3. 1-0 7.3%
  4. 1-2 7.1%
  5. 2-0 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.560.9% Under 2.539.1%
BTTS yes62.3% BTTS no37.7%
Hertha Berlin 1+83.2% Hertha Berlin 2+53.2%
1. FC Magdeburg 1+74.5% 1. FC Magdeburg 2+39.7%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.37. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
2-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 76%
78.9% fair odds 1.27
moderate signal · 2094 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Hertha Berlin over 0.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 81%
82.8% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1110 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Hertha Berlin carry the stronger rating, 1556 Elo against 1489.
  • Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0041 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Hertha Berlin have an estimated 49.8% win probability, against 28.2% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 21.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.78 for Hertha Berlin and 1.37 for 1. FC Magdeburg.

Why Hertha Berlin

Hertha Berlin carry the stronger rating, 1556 Elo against 1489. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.9%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why 1. FC Magdeburg can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Hertha Berlin, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for 1. FC Magdeburg, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Hertha Berlin: 46% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 19.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. 1. FC Magdeburg: 48% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Hertha Berlin are the model's most likely outcome at 49.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.78–1.37 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.79–1.35 1-1 11% 61% 62%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin to win 47.5% 47.5% 43.1% 1.10× 2.11
1. FC Magdeburg to win 28.7% 27.9% 31.2% 0.89× 3.59
Draw 23.8% 24.4% 25.9% 0.94× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin & both teams score 26.3% 25.2% 22.2% 1.14× 3.97
Hertha Berlin & not both score 21.2% 21.9% 21.1% 1.04× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 19.1% 17.9% 19.7% 0.91× 5.58
1. FC Magdeburg & both teams score 16.7% 17.9% 18.1% 0.99× 5.58
1. FC Magdeburg & not both score 12.0% 13.2% 13.3% 1.00× 7.55
Draw & not both score 4.6% 4.9% 6.4% 0.76× 20.47
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin & over 1.5 40.2% 40.3% 34.3% 1.17× 2.48
Hertha Berlin & over 2.5 33.3% 30.9% 27.8% 1.11× 3.24
Hertha Berlin & under 3.5 27.8% 26.0% 27.8% 0.94× 3.84
1. FC Magdeburg & over 1.5 23.2% 21.6% 25.9% 0.84× 4.62
Hertha Berlin & over 3.5 19.8% 18.0% 15.4% 1.17× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 19.1% 18.0% 19.7% 0.92× 5.56
1. FC Magdeburg & over 2.5 19.3% 18.0% 22.2% 0.81× 5.56
1. FC Magdeburg & under 3.5 18.2% 18.0% 21.1% 0.85× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 15.4% 18.0% 16.8% 1.07× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 15.4% 18.0% 16.8% 1.07× 5.56
Hertha Berlin & under 2.5 14.3% 12.9% 15.4% 0.83× 7.77
1. FC Magdeburg & over 3.5 10.5% 12.9% 10.3% 1.25× 7.78
1. FC Magdeburg & under 2.5 9.4% 7.9% 9.2% 0.86× 12.69
Hertha Berlin & under 1.5 7.4% 7.9% 8.9% 0.89× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 8.3% 7.9% 9.2% 0.86× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 8.3% 7.9% 9.2% 0.86× 12.69
1. FC Magdeburg & under 1.5 5.5% 7.9% 5.5% 1.44× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 4.6% 4.8% 6.4% 0.75× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin (1UP) 64.5% 63.3% 1.58
1. FC Magdeburg (1UP) 48.6% 43.0% 2.33
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin (2UP) 47.5% 49.9% 2.00
1. FC Magdeburg (2UP) 28.7% 24.7% 4.05
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin to win 2nd half 39.5% 36.2% 2.77
2nd half drawn 32.5% 34.4% 2.90
1. FC Magdeburg to win 2nd half 28.1% 26.3% 3.81
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (+2.5) 88.4% 88.5% 90.6% 0.98× 1.13
1. FC Magdeburg (+1.5) 73.8% 73.7% 77.7% 0.95× 1.36
Hertha Berlin (+0.5) 71.3% 73.7% 68.8% 1.07× 1.36
1. FC Magdeburg (+0.5) 52.5% 52.3% 56.9% 0.92× 1.91
Hertha Berlin (-0.5) 47.5% 47.7% 43.1% 1.11× 2.10
1. FC Magdeburg (-0.5) 28.7% 26.3% 31.2% 0.84× 3.80
Hertha Berlin (-1.5) 26.2% 26.3% 22.3% 1.18× 3.80
Hertha Berlin (-2.5) 11.6% 11.5% 9.4% 1.23× 8.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg to concede 83.4% 81.3% 80.5% 1.01× 1.23
1. FC Magdeburg clean sheet 16.6% 18.7% 19.5% 0.96× 5.35
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg clean sheet in 1st half 46.2% 50.8% 1.97
1. FC Magdeburg to concede in 1st half 53.8% 49.2% 2.03
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg over 2.5 corners 83.3% 81.0% 1.24
1. FC Magdeburg under 6.5 corners 72.0% 72.3% 1.38
1. FC Magdeburg over 3.5 corners 69.7% 68.3% 1.47
1. FC Magdeburg under 5.5 corners 59.8% 56.9% 1.76
1. FC Magdeburg over 4.5 corners 54.6% 52.4% 1.91
1. FC Magdeburg under 4.5 corners 45.4% 47.6% 2.10
1. FC Magdeburg over 5.5 corners 40.2% 43.1% 2.32
1. FC Magdeburg under 3.5 corners 30.3% 31.7% 3.15
1. FC Magdeburg over 6.5 corners 28.0% 27.7% 3.61
1. FC Magdeburg under 2.5 corners 16.7% 19.0% 5.25
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg under 3.5 goals 95.1% 97.6% 94.5% 1.03× 1.03
1. FC Magdeburg under 2.5 goals 84.5% 81.5% 83.6% 0.97× 1.23
1. FC Magdeburg over 0.5 goals 74.2% 71.9% 72.7% 0.99× 1.39
1. FC Magdeburg under 1.5 goals 60.8% 62.9% 60.2% 1.04× 1.59
1. FC Magdeburg over 1.5 goals 39.2% 37.1% 39.8% 0.93× 2.70
1. FC Magdeburg under 0.5 goals 25.8% 28.1% 27.3% 1.03× 3.56
1. FC Magdeburg over 2.5 goals 15.5% 18.5% 16.4% 1.13× 5.40
1. FC Magdeburg over 3.5 goals 4.9% 2.4% 5.5% 0.45× 40.93
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg under 1.5 in 1st half 89.7% 89.7% 1.12
1. FC Magdeburg under 0.5 in 1st half 58.2% 63.0% 1.59
1. FC Magdeburg over 0.5 in 1st half 41.8% 37.0% 2.70
1. FC Magdeburg over 1.5 in 1st half 10.3% 10.3% 9.68
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin (away no bet) 66.7% 66.5% 62.4% 1.06× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 33.3% 33.5% 37.6% 0.89× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg even goals 53.3% 52.7% 54.1% 0.97× 1.90
1. FC Magdeburg odd goals 46.7% 47.3% 45.9% 1.03× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 79.3% 82.3% 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 20.7% 17.7% 5.64
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 72.0% 66.9% 1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals 28.0% 33.1% 3.02
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 63.3% 59.6% 1.68
Hertha Berlin to score 2+ in a row 43.6% 38.3% 2.61
1. FC Magdeburg to score 2+ in a row 28.6% 25.2% 3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row 25.0% 19.4% 5.16
Hertha Berlin to score 3+ in a row 17.2% 16.4% 6.10
1. FC Magdeburg to score 3+ in a row 8.2% 5.6% 17.87
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg corners (+3.5) 84.2% 80.0% 1.25
Hertha Berlin corners (+3.5) 81.0% 80.0% 1.25
1. FC Magdeburg corners (+2.5) 77.0% 75.5% 1.33
Hertha Berlin corners (+2.5) 73.0% 69.9% 1.43
1. FC Magdeburg corners (+1.5) 68.1% 66.8% 1.50
Hertha Berlin corners (+1.5) 63.5% 61.7% 1.62
1. FC Magdeburg corners (-1.5) 36.5% 38.3% 2.61
Hertha Berlin corners (-1.5) 31.9% 33.2% 3.01
1. FC Magdeburg corners (-2.5) 27.0% 30.1% 3.32
Hertha Berlin corners (-2.5) 23.0% 24.5% 4.08
1. FC Magdeburg corners (-3.5) 19.0% 20.0% 5.00
Hertha Berlin corners (-3.5) 15.8% 20.0% 5.01
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 37.1% 35.1% 2.85
12+ corners 32.6% 32.0% 3.13
9-11 corners 30.2% 32.0% 3.13
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 75.4% 76.6% 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 73.0% 72.5% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 67.4% 67.9% 1.47
Over 8.5 corners 62.9% 62.7% 1.60
Under 10.5 corners 58.0% 57.8% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 52.3% 52.2% 1.91
Under 9.5 corners 47.7% 47.8% 2.09
Over 10.5 corners 42.0% 42.2% 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 37.1% 37.3% 2.68
Over 11.5 corners 32.6% 32.1% 3.12
Under 7.5 corners 27.0% 27.5% 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 24.6% 23.4% 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.8% 11.5% 10.6% 1.08× 8.73
2-1 9.4% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.46
1-0 7.4% 7.4% 8.9% 0.84× 13.46
1-2 7.1% 7.4% 9.0% 0.82× 13.46
2-0 6.9% 7.4% 6.7% 1.11× 13.46
0-1 5.5% 7.4% 5.5% 1.36× 13.46
2-2 6.3% 7.4% 7.2% 1.04× 13.46
3-1 5.6% 7.4% 5.5% 1.36× 13.46
0-0 4.6% 1.7% 6.4% 0.27× 58.57
Any other score 4.8% 1.7% 5.5% 0.31× 58.56
0-2 3.9% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.57
0-3 1.8% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.58
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.56× 58.59
1-3 3.2% 1.7% 2.5% 0.68× 58.57
1-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.82× 58.59
2-3 2.9% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.58
2-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.8% 2.19× 58.59
3-0 4.1% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.57
3-2 3.8% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.57
3-3 1.7% 1.7% 2.0% 0.84× 58.58
3-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.82× 58.59
4-0 1.9% 1.7% 0.9% 1.82× 58.58
4-1 2.5% 1.7% 2.0% 0.84× 58.58
4-2 1.7% 1.7% 0.8% 2.19× 58.58
4-3 0.8% 1.7% 0.6% 2.74× 58.59
4-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 5.47× 58.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin leading at HT (DNB) 61.7% 66.2% 1.51
1. FC Magdeburg leading at HT (DNB) 38.3% 33.8% 2.96
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin or 1. FC Magdeburg (12) 76.2% 75.6% 74.1% 1.02× 1.32
Hertha Berlin or draw (1X) 71.3% 72.1% 68.8% 1.05× 1.39
1. FC Magdeburg or draw (X2) 52.5% 52.5% 56.9% 0.92× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin or draw at HT 76.8% 80.0% 1.25
1. FC Magdeburg or draw at HT 62.7% 62.2% 1.61
Hertha Berlin or 1. FC Magdeburg at HT 60.5% 62.1% 1.61
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin or draw (1UP) 71.3% 79.9% 1.25
1. FC Magdeburg or draw (1UP) 52.5% 58.7% 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin or draw in 2nd half 71.9% 73.7% 1.36
Hertha Berlin or 1. FC Magdeburg in 2nd half 67.5% 65.6% 1.53
1. FC Magdeburg or draw in 2nd half 60.5% 63.9% 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 58.8% 58.4% 1.71
Neither half drawn 41.2% 41.6% 2.40
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin (DNB) 62.4% 62.9% 58.0% 1.08× 1.59
1. FC Magdeburg (DNB) 37.6% 37.1% 42.0% 0.88× 2.69
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin to score first 54.4% 54.3% 1.84
1. FC Magdeburg to score first 41.0% 41.6% 2.41
No goal scored 4.6% 4.4% 22.83
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 62.2% 56.5% 59.6% 0.95× 1.77
Not both teams to score 37.8% 43.5% 40.4% 1.08× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 51.4% 47.0% 49.1% 0.96× 2.13
Not both score & under 2.5 28.3% 33.6% 30.7% 1.09× 2.97
Both score & under 2.5 10.8% 12.3% 10.6% 1.16× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 9.5% 8.4% 9.8% 0.85× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 79.0% 80.1% 80.5% 0.99× 1.25
Both teams to score 2+ 21.0% 19.9% 19.5% 1.02× 5.02
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 64.3% 66.2% 1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half 35.7% 33.8% 2.96
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 49.8% 53.9% 1.85
Both score 2nd half only 27.7% 26.0% 3.84
Both score 1st half only 14.5% 10.5% 9.50
Both score in both halves 8.0% 6.7% 14.89
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 77.5% 81.7% 1.22
Both teams to score by HT 22.5% 18.3% 5.46
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 61.6% 58.9% 1.70
A half without a goal 38.4% 41.1% 2.43
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.0% 42.1% 45.1% 0.93× 2.37
4-6 goals 34.4% 30.7% 30.6% 1.00× 3.26
0-1 goals 17.5% 20.2% 20.4% 0.99× 4.94
7+ goals 4.1% 1.8% 4.2% 0.43× 55.00
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg to score exactly 1 35.0% 33.9% 33.1% 1.03× 2.95
1. FC Magdeburg to score exactly 0 25.8% 27.4% 27.3% 1.00× 3.65
1. FC Magdeburg to score exactly 2 23.7% 22.4% 23.6% 0.95× 4.47
1. FC Magdeburg to score 3+ 15.5% 19.5% 16.4% 1.19× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin to score exactly 1 29.8% 26.5% 31.8% 0.83× 3.77
Hertha Berlin to score exactly 2 26.8% 26.5% 26.4% 1.01× 3.77
Hertha Berlin to score 3+ 26.8% 26.5% 22.6% 1.17× 3.77
Hertha Berlin to score exactly 0 16.6% 18.9% 19.5% 0.97× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 39.5% 37.9% 2.64
Hertha Berlin leading at HT 37.3% 37.8% 2.65
1. FC Magdeburg leading at HT 23.2% 20.0% 5.00
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin -1: 2 52.5% 52.1% 1.92
Hertha Berlin -1: 1 26.2% 26.5% 3.77
Hertha Berlin -1: X 21.4% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (0:1) 52.5% 51.2% 56.9% 0.90× 1.95
Hertha Berlin (0:1) 26.2% 27.0% 22.3% 1.21× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 21.4% 24.3% 20.9% 1.16× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (0:2) 73.8% 75.6% 77.7% 0.97× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 14.5% 11.0% 13.1% 0.84× 9.08
Hertha Berlin (0:2) 11.6% 11.0% 9.4% 1.18× 9.09
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (0:3) 88.4% 90.8% 90.6% 1.00× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 7.3% 5.8% 5.9% 0.98× 17.23
Hertha Berlin (0:3) 4.3% 2.4% 3.6% 0.66× 41.95
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (0:4) 95.7% 98.1% 96.4% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 3.0% 1.2% 2.0% 0.59× 83.13
Hertha Berlin (0:4) 1.3% 1.2% 1.7% 0.70× 83.32
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin (1:0) 71.3% 72.5% 68.8% 1.05× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 16.0% 17.0% 18.1% 0.94× 5.88
1. FC Magdeburg (1:0) 12.7% 12.8% 13.3% 0.97× 7.81
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin (2:0) 87.3% 88.3% 86.7% 1.02× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.3% 6.5% 7.2% 0.90× 15.48
1. FC Magdeburg (2:0) 4.4% 2.3% 6.2% 0.36× 44.13
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.4% 48.3% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 27.2% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 23.3% 24.2% 4.13
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin to concede 74.2% 73.1% 72.7% 1.01× 1.37
Hertha Berlin clean sheet 25.8% 26.9% 27.3% 0.99× 3.71
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin clean sheet in 1st half 58.2% 63.0% 1.59
Hertha Berlin to concede in 1st half 41.8% 37.0% 2.70
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin over 2.5 corners 81.3% 81.3% 1.23
Hertha Berlin under 6.5 corners 75.0% 76.1% 1.31
Hertha Berlin over 3.5 corners 66.7% 67.7% 1.48
Hertha Berlin under 5.5 corners 63.2% 62.0% 1.61
Hertha Berlin over 4.5 corners 51.2% 53.0% 1.89
Hertha Berlin under 4.5 corners 48.8% 47.0% 2.13
Hertha Berlin over 5.5 corners 36.8% 38.0% 2.63
Hertha Berlin under 3.5 corners 33.3% 32.3% 3.10
Hertha Berlin over 6.5 corners 25.0% 23.9% 4.19
Hertha Berlin under 2.5 corners 18.7% 18.7% 5.35
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin under 3.5 goals 89.2% 87.2% 92.4% 0.94× 1.15
Hertha Berlin over 0.5 goals 83.4% 82.2% 80.5% 1.02× 1.22
Hertha Berlin under 2.5 goals 73.2% 74.2% 77.4% 0.96× 1.35
Hertha Berlin over 1.5 goals 53.5% 53.3% 48.8% 1.09× 1.88
Hertha Berlin under 1.5 goals 46.5% 46.7% 51.2% 0.91× 2.14
Hertha Berlin over 2.5 goals 26.8% 25.8% 22.6% 1.14× 3.88
Hertha Berlin under 0.5 goals 16.6% 17.9% 19.5% 0.92× 5.60
Hertha Berlin over 3.5 goals 10.8% 12.8% 7.6% 1.67× 7.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin under 1.5 in 1st half 81.9% 84.6% 1.18
Hertha Berlin under 0.5 in 1st half 46.2% 50.9% 1.96
Hertha Berlin over 0.5 in 1st half 53.8% 49.1% 2.04
Hertha Berlin over 1.5 in 1st half 18.1% 15.4% 6.50
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (home no bet) 54.7% 51.6% 54.6% 0.94× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 45.3% 48.4% 45.4% 1.07× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin even goals 51.4% 50.6% 50.9% 1.00× 1.98
Hertha Berlin odd goals 48.6% 49.4% 49.1% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 27.0% 28.6% 3.49
HT 1-0 20.7% 24.2% 4.13
HT 0-1 14.5% 11.1% 9.03
HT 1-1 11.3% 11.0% 9.06
HT 2-0 8.0% 7.1% 14.09
Any other HT score 6.0% 7.1% 14.12
HT 2-1 4.3% 2.2% 44.60
HT 0-2 3.9% 2.2% 44.63
HT 1-2 3.0% 2.2% 44.70
HT 2-2 1.2% 2.2% 44.85
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin at HT / Hertha Berlin at FT 29.2% 26.7% 3.74
Draw at HT / Hertha Berlin at FT 15.4% 16.8% 5.96
1. FC Magdeburg at HT / 1. FC Magdeburg at FT 15.3% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.2% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / 1. FC Magdeburg at FT 10.9% 12.7% 7.91
Hertha Berlin at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.0% 16.63
1. FC Magdeburg at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.4% 29.09
1. FC Magdeburg at HT / Hertha Berlin at FT 3.0% 3.4% 29.17
Hertha Berlin at HT / 1. FC Magdeburg at FT 2.5% 3.4% 29.18
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin to score last 54.4% 52.0% 1.92
1. FC Magdeburg to score last 41.0% 40.1% 2.50
No goal scored 4.6% 4.4% 22.83
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.4% 95.5% 1.05
Hertha Berlin to lead by 1 at any time 64.5% 61.6% 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 52.8% 50.6% 1.98
1. FC Magdeburg to lead by 1 at any time 48.6% 44.0% 2.27
Hertha Berlin to lead by 2 at any time 33.9% 29.5% 3.39
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 20.8% 19.6% 5.11
1. FC Magdeburg to lead by 2 at any time 19.3% 15.0% 6.68
Hertha Berlin to lead by 3 at any time 14.6% 10.5% 9.52
1. FC Magdeburg to lead by 3 at any time 6.3% 6.5% 15.39
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg most corners 47.0% 46.8% 2.14
Hertha Berlin most corners 42.2% 43.2% 2.32
Corners level 10.8% 10.6% 9.40
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.4% 87.4% 84.6% 1.03× 1.14
2-6 goals 78.4% 78.6% 75.5% 1.04× 1.27
1-4 goals 74.4% 72.4% 75.5% 0.96× 1.38
2-5 goals 72.6% 72.4% 70.5% 1.03× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.5% 63.5% 61.5% 1.03× 1.58
1-3 goals 56.8% 59.2% 59.1% 1.00× 1.69
3-6 goals 56.8% 59.2% 54.8% 1.08× 1.69
3-5 goals 51.0% 53.1% 49.8% 1.07× 1.88
2-3 goals 44.0% 43.6% 45.1% 0.97× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.9% 39.2% 40.7% 0.96× 2.55
1-2 goals 34.5% 35.4% 34.9% 1.01× 2.83
4-6 goals 34.4% 35.4% 30.6% 1.16× 2.83
4-5 goals 28.6% 30.2% 25.6% 1.18× 3.31
5-6 goals 16.9% 18.6% 14.2% 1.31× 5.37
7+ goals 4.1% 2.5% 4.2% 0.60× 39.39
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin never behind 46.7% 57.1% 1.75
1. FC Magdeburg never behind 30.8% 35.3% 2.83
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.2% 50.8% 50.5% 1.00× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.8% 49.2% 49.5% 1.00× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.7% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.3% 48.5% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.5% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.5% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.4% 95.5% 93.6% 1.02× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 90.1% 92.3% 90.8% 1.02× 1.08
Over 1.5 goals 82.5% 82.4% 79.6% 1.04× 1.21
Under 4.5 goals 79.0% 77.4% 81.7% 0.95× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 61.4% 61.7% 65.4% 0.94× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 60.9% 61.7% 58.8% 1.05× 1.62
Under 2.5 goals 39.1% 38.3% 41.2% 0.93× 2.61
Over 3.5 goals 38.6% 38.3% 34.6% 1.10× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 21.0% 22.6% 18.3% 1.24× 4.42
Under 1.5 goals 17.5% 17.6% 20.4% 0.86× 5.67
Over 5.5 goals 9.9% 7.7% 9.2% 0.84× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 4.6% 4.5% 6.4% 0.71× 22.18
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.6% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 88.8% 86.7% 89.9% 0.97× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 77.7% 75.9% 74.2% 1.02× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 74.5% 72.6% 78.2% 0.93× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 50.4% 51.8% 54.3% 0.95× 1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 49.6% 48.2% 45.7% 1.06× 2.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 25.5% 27.4% 21.8% 1.25× 3.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 22.3% 24.1% 25.8% 0.93× 4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 11.2% 13.3% 10.1% 1.31× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 4.4% 2.8% 4.4% 0.62× 36.31
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 85.4% 89.2% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 73.0% 71.1% 1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half 62.2% 63.7% 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 37.8% 36.3% 2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half 27.0% 28.9% 3.46
Over 2.5 in 1st half 14.6% 10.8% 9.28
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.9% 83.0% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 72.1% 77.9% 1.28
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 54.8% 53.2% 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 45.2% 46.8% 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 27.9% 22.1% 4.52
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.1% 17.0% 5.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg not to score in both halves 76.8% 78.4% 1.28
Hertha Berlin not to score in both halves 65.6% 69.9% 1.43
Hertha Berlin to score in both halves 34.4% 30.1% 3.33
1. FC Magdeburg to score in both halves 23.2% 21.6% 4.62
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 62.2% 60.2% 59.6% 1.01× 1.66
Only Hertha Berlin scores 21.2% 22.4% 21.1% 1.06× 4.47
Only 1. FC Magdeburg scores 12.0% 10.9% 13.3% 0.83× 9.14
Neither team scores 4.6% 4.6% 6.4% 0.72× 21.69
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 24.3% 0.93× 4.42
Exactly 2 goals 21.6% 22.6% 20.9% 1.08× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 17.6% 17.5% 16.5% 1.06× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 12.8% 12.1% 14.2% 0.85× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 11.1% 12.1% 9.2% 1.31× 8.29
6 or more goals 9.9% 7.6% 9.2% 0.83× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 4.6% 4.4% 6.4% 0.69× 22.60
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 54.8% 51.1% 1.96
1 goal in 2nd half 29.1% 29.6% 3.37
No goals in 2nd half 16.1% 16.8% 5.94
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg not to win both halves 93.5% 94.0% 1.06
Hertha Berlin not to win both halves 85.2% 88.0% 1.14
Hertha Berlin to win both halves 14.8% 12.0% 8.32
1. FC Magdeburg to win both halves 6.6% 6.0% 16.64
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin to win either half 62.0% 65.3% 1.53
1. FC Magdeburg to win neither half 55.3% 59.3% 1.69
1. FC Magdeburg to win either half 44.7% 40.7% 2.46
Hertha Berlin to win neither half 38.0% 34.7% 2.88
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg not to win to nil 88.0% 88.2% 86.7% 1.02× 1.13
Hertha Berlin not to win to nil 78.8% 78.0% 78.9% 0.99× 1.28
Hertha Berlin to win to nil 21.2% 22.0% 21.1% 1.04× 4.55
1. FC Magdeburg to win to nil 12.0% 11.8% 13.3% 0.89× 8.48
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 23.8% 24.1% 25.9% 0.93× 4.14
Hertha Berlin by 1 21.4% 24.1% 20.9% 1.15× 4.14
1. FC Magdeburg by 1 16.0% 16.9% 18.1% 0.94× 5.90
Hertha Berlin by 2 14.5% 11.8% 13.1% 0.90× 8.46
Hertha Berlin by 3+ 11.6% 11.8% 9.4% 1.26× 8.46
1. FC Magdeburg by 2 8.3% 7.2% 7.2% 1.01× 13.80
1. FC Magdeburg by 3+ 4.4% 2.7% 6.2% 0.43× 36.93
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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