Internazionale v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
30 – 9
On target
9 – 4
Shots in box
22 – 3
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.90 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.14 – +1.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Internazionale win
75.5%
Draw
17.3%
Monza win
7.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Internazionale are finishing sharply above their chances — 7.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWDWWDDWW last 10
scored 28
from 20.5 xG
conceded 12
from 12.1 xG
Monza are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 6.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLLWLLLL last 10
scored 7
from 10.3 xG
conceded 24
from 17.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.60–0.76 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Internazionale 3.14 xGMonza 0.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Internazionale attacking right
Monza attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marko Arnautovic |
| 5' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Francesco Acerbi |
| 6' |
 Monza |
Keita | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dany Mota |
| 13' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 19' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 20' |
Monza |
Alessandro Bianco | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dany Mota |
| 21' |
Internazionale |
Alessandro Bastoni | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 21' |
Internazionale |
Marko Arnautovic | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 22' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 23' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.42 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 30' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 31' |
Monza |
Samuele Birindelli | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dany Mota |
| 35' |
Internazionale |
Alessandro Bastoni | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 35' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 36' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Benjamin Pavard |
| 42' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 42' |
Monza |
Samuele Birindelli | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dany Mota |
| 43' |
Monza |
Keita | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dany Mota |
| 45' |
Internazionale |
Marko Arnautovic | 0.61 | Open Play | — | Goal | Denzel Dumfries |
| 46' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 47' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 49' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 50' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Francesco Acerbi |
| 60' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 60' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 61' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Denzel Dumfries |
| 63' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yann Bisseck |
| 69' |
Monza |
Alessandro Bianco | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 70' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 71' |
Monza |
Keita | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Samuele Birindelli |
| 75' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 76' |
Monza |
Georgios Kyriakopoulos | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 82' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Lautaro Martínez |
| 82' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 87' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joaquín Correa |
| 88' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Francesco Acerbi |
| 88' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Monza |
Stefan Lekovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Georgios Kyriakopoulos |
Players
Monza
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Bianco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pedro Pereira DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kevin Zeroli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Georgios Kyriakopoulos DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Danilo D'Ambrosio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Armando Izzo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Stefano Turati GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Samuele Birindelli DMR | 89 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| Keita FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Gaetano Castrovilli MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Dany Mota FW | 69 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| Silvère Ganvoula Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Lekovic Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gianluca Caprari Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuele Vignato Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arvid Brorsson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0.82 | 0.66 | 1.45 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0.24 | 0.69 | 1.29 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0.20 | 0.45 | 1.94 |
| Denzel Dumfries DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.72 | 1.21 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 1.64 |
| Francesco Acerbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.91 |
| Josep Martínez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Marko Arnautovic FW | 73 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.07 | 0.89 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Benjamin Pavard DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.78 |
| Stefan de Vrij DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Yann Bisseck Sub | 41 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.34 |
| Carlos Augusto Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marcus Thuram Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Joaquín Correa Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Piotr Zielinski Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |