Internazionale v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Internazionale

12:00

Napoli

Shots

29 – 16

On target

8 – 7

Shots in box

20 – 13

xG per shot

0.13 – 0.15

Set-piece xG

1.03 – 0.13

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Internazionale win

56.6%

Draw

22.6%

Napoli win

20.7%

572321

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Internazionale are finishing sharply above their chances — 7.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

WWWDWWDDWW last 10 scored 28 from 20.5 xG conceded 12 from 12.1 xG

Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WDLWDLWWWL last 10 scored 15 from 13.2 xG conceded 8 from 10.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	572321	1.85–1.03	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	492527	1.64–1.14	1-1 12%	53%	55%
dc-xg-oos	492527	1.64–1.14	1-1 12%	53%	55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to win	56.0%	52.1%	39.4%	1.32×	1.92
Draw	23.3%	25.1%	26.7%	0.94×	3.99
Napoli to win	20.6%	25.0%	34.0%	0.74×	4.00

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale & not both score	31.3%	29.6%	22.8%	1.30×	3.38
Internazionale & both teams score	24.8%	21.6%	16.8%	1.29×	4.62
Draw & both teams score	16.9%	18.7%	18.5%	1.01×	5.35
Napoli & not both score	10.6%	12.1%	21.1%	0.57×	8.29
Napoli & both teams score	10.0%	12.1%	13.0%	0.92×	8.30
Draw & not both score	6.4%	7.5%	8.3%	0.91×	13.27

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale & over 1.5	44.7%	40.5%	29.0%	1.40×	2.47
Internazionale & under 3.5	37.2%	34.7%	29.5%	1.17×	2.89
Internazionale & over 2.5	34.6%	32.2%	22.4%	1.44×	3.11
Internazionale & under 2.5	21.4%	21.7%	17.1%	1.27×	4.60
Internazionale & over 3.5	18.9%	18.4%	10.0%	1.85×	5.43
Draw & under 2.5	17.5%	18.4%	19.9%	0.92×	5.43
Draw & under 3.5	17.5%	18.4%	19.9%	0.92×	5.43
Draw & over 1.5	16.9%	18.4%	18.5%	0.99×	5.43
Napoli & under 3.5	15.7%	18.4%	26.7%	0.69×	5.44
Napoli & over 1.5	14.4%	13.0%	24.6%	0.53×	7.72
Napoli & over 2.5	11.3%	12.9%	17.9%	0.72×	7.72
Internazionale & under 1.5	11.4%	12.9%	10.5%	1.23×	7.72
Napoli & under 2.5	9.3%	7.4%	16.2%	0.46×	13.51
Draw & under 1.5	6.4%	7.4%	8.3%	0.89×	13.53
Napoli & under 1.5	6.3%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.53
Draw & over 2.5	5.8%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.53
Draw & over 3.5	5.8%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.53
Napoli & over 3.5	4.9%	4.1%	7.4%	0.55×	24.67

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (1UP)	69.0%	68.4%	54.5%	1.26×	1.46
Napoli (1UP)	38.1%	32.6%	50.8%	0.64×	3.07

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (2UP)	56.0%	53.6%	41.0%	1.30×	1.87
Napoli (2UP)	20.6%	22.5%	36.4%	0.62×	4.45

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to win 2nd half	48.1%	45.6%	34.7%	1.32×	2.19
2nd half drawn	36.2%	36.6%	36.1%	1.02×	2.73
Napoli to win 2nd half	15.7%	18.2%	29.4%	0.62×	5.49

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (+2.5)	85.7%	90.7%	92.3%	0.98×	1.10
Internazionale (+0.5)	79.4%	81.4%	66.0%	1.23×	1.23
Napoli (+1.5)	68.4%	71.4%	82.7%	0.86×	1.40
Internazionale (-0.5)	56.0%	56.2%	39.4%	1.43×	1.78
Napoli (+0.5)	44.0%	43.8%	60.6%	0.72×	2.28
Internazionale (-1.5)	31.6%	28.6%	17.3%	1.66×	3.50
Napoli (-0.5)	20.6%	18.6%	34.0%	0.55×	5.39
Internazionale (-2.5)	14.3%	9.3%	7.7%	1.21×	10.78

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede	83.0%	78.2%	70.7%	1.11×	1.28
Napoli clean sheet	17.0%	21.8%	29.3%	0.75×	4.58

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede in 1st half	55.1%	58.2%	41.3%	1.41×	1.72
Napoli clean sheet in 1st half	44.9%	41.8%	58.7%	0.71×	2.39

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 6.5 corners	89.7%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Napoli under 5.5 corners	82.0%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Napoli under 4.5 corners	70.4%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Napoli over 2.5 corners	63.9%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Napoli under 3.5 corners	54.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Napoli over 3.5 corners	45.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Napoli under 2.5 corners	36.1%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Napoli over 4.5 corners	29.6%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
Napoli over 5.5 corners	18.0%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Napoli over 6.5 corners	10.3%	15.1%	—	—	6.64

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 3.5 goals	98.2%	98.8%	97.2%	1.02×	1.01
Napoli under 2.5 goals	92.4%	94.4%	88.4%	1.07×	1.06
Napoli under 1.5 goals	74.5%	72.0%	65.7%	1.10×	1.39
Napoli over 0.5 goals	62.3%	61.7%	69.1%	0.89×	1.62
Napoli under 0.5 goals	37.7%	38.3%	30.9%	1.24×	2.61
Napoli over 1.5 goals	25.5%	28.0%	34.3%	0.82×	3.57
Napoli over 2.5 goals	7.6%	5.6%	11.6%	0.48×	17.88
Napoli over 3.5 goals	1.8%	1.2%	2.8%	0.43×	81.98

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 1st half	89.3%	89.7%	90.2%	1.00×	1.12
Napoli under 0.5 in 1st half	57.5%	62.2%	58.8%	1.06×	1.61
Napoli over 0.5 in 1st half	42.5%	37.8%	41.2%	0.92×	2.65
Napoli over 1.5 in 1st half	10.7%	10.3%	9.8%	1.04×	9.73

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (away no bet)	70.6%	67.2%	59.6%	1.13×	1.49
Draw (away no bet)	29.4%	32.8%	40.4%	0.81×	3.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli even goals	57.1%	60.2%	55.5%	1.08×	1.66
Napoli odd goals	42.9%	39.8%	44.5%	0.90×	2.51

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.1%	83.4%	87.2%	0.96×	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.9%	16.6%	12.8%	1.30×	6.01

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.8%	57.7%	59.3%	0.97×	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.2%	42.3%	40.7%	1.04×	2.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.6%	54.9%	52.7%	1.04×	1.82
Internazionale to score 2+ in a row	45.3%	44.8%	31.1%	1.44×	2.23
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.5%	19.1%	17.3%	1.10×	5.24
Internazionale to score 3+ in a row	18.8%	16.1%	9.7%	1.66×	6.21
Napoli to score 2+ in a row	17.8%	16.1%	27.4%	0.59×	6.22
Napoli to score 3+ in a row	3.9%	2.5%	7.7%	0.33×	39.82

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale corners (+3.5)	91.0%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Internazionale corners (+2.5)	85.3%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Napoli corners (+3.5)	77.8%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Internazionale corners (+1.5)	77.2%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Napoli corners (+2.5)	68.4%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Napoli corners (+1.5)	57.1%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Internazionale corners (-1.5)	42.9%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Internazionale corners (-2.5)	31.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Napoli corners (-1.5)	22.8%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Internazionale corners (-3.5)	22.2%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Napoli corners (-2.5)	14.7%	15.8%	—	—	6.31
Napoli corners (-3.5)	9.0%	11.4%	—	—	8.81

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	58.4%	47.9%	—	—	2.09
9-11 corners	25.7%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
12+ corners	16.0%	21.6%	—	—	4.62

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	89.2%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	84.0%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Under 10.5 corners	77.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	68.6%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Under 8.5 corners	58.4%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	53.1%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Under 7.5 corners	46.9%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 8.5 corners	41.6%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	31.4%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 10.5 corners	22.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.28
Over 11.5 corners	16.0%	20.1%	—	—	4.96
Over 12.5 corners	10.8%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	11.4%	12.7%	10.5%	1.21×	7.88
1-1	11.1%	12.7%	11.8%	1.08×	7.88
2-0	10.1%	12.7%	6.8%	1.87×	7.89
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	9.2%	0.81×	13.44
0-0	6.4%	7.4%	8.3%	0.89×	13.46
0-1	6.3%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.46
3-0	5.9%	7.4%	3.5%	2.15×	13.46
3-1	5.8%	7.4%	3.1%	2.42×	13.46
1-2	5.4%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.46
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	6.0%	0.28×	58.56
Any other score	3.7%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.59
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.62
4-0	2.6%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.62
4-1	2.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.48×	58.62
0-2	3.1%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.61
4-2	1.3%	1.7%	0.1%	13.33×	58.67
1-3	1.8%	1.7%	1.9%	0.89×	58.65
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.66
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	1.90×	58.68
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.66×	58.70
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.66×	58.69
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	6.66×	58.70
0-3	1.0%	1.7%	3.3%	0.51×	58.67
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.67×	58.70
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.66×	58.69
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.1%	13.32×	58.69

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale leading at HT (DNB)	62.3%	66.2%	50.2%	1.32×	1.51
Napoli leading at HT (DNB)	37.7%	33.8%	49.8%	0.68×	2.96

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw (1X)	79.4%	75.0%	66.0%	1.14×	1.33
Internazionale or Napoli (12)	76.7%	74.9%	73.3%	1.02×	1.34
Napoli or draw (X2)	44.0%	47.9%	60.6%	0.79×	2.09

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw at HT	76.8%	80.0%	72.6%	1.10×	1.25
Napoli or draw at HT	61.8%	62.0%	72.4%	0.86×	1.61
Internazionale or Napoli at HT	61.4%	62.0%	54.9%	1.13×	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw (1UP)	79.4%	84.7%	71.0%	1.19×	1.18
Napoli or draw (1UP)	44.0%	54.2%	66.1%	0.82×	1.84

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw in 2nd half	84.3%	81.8%	70.6%	1.16×	1.22
Internazionale or Napoli in 2nd half	63.8%	63.4%	63.9%	0.99×	1.58
Napoli or draw in 2nd half	51.9%	54.4%	65.3%	0.83×	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.8%	61.9%	64.5%	0.96×	1.62
Neither half drawn	39.2%	38.1%	35.6%	1.07×	2.63

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (DNB)	73.1%	72.9%	53.7%	1.36×	1.37
Napoli (DNB)	26.9%	27.1%	46.3%	0.59×	3.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to score first	60.3%	62.1%	47.7%	1.30×	1.61
Napoli to score first	33.3%	25.9%	44.1%	0.59×	3.86
No goal scored	6.4%	8.3%	8.3%	1.00×	12.01

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.7%	53.4%	48.1%	1.11×	1.87
Not both teams to score	48.3%	46.6%	51.9%	0.90×	2.14

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.6%	42.6%	36.4%	1.17×	2.35
Not both score & under 2.5	37.2%	36.9%	41.4%	0.89×	2.71
Not both score & over 2.5	11.1%	11.9%	10.6%	1.12×	8.41
Both score & under 2.5	11.1%	11.9%	11.8%	1.01×	8.41

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.5%	88.2%	87.1%	1.01×	1.13
Both teams to score 2+	13.5%	11.8%	12.9%	0.92×	8.46

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	78.6%	75.9%	75.3%	1.01×	1.32
Both teams to score in 2nd half	21.4%	24.2%	24.7%	0.98×	4.14

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	60.2%	66.8%	63.7%	1.05×	1.50
Both score 1st half only	18.4%	15.2%	11.8%	1.29×	6.57
Both score 2nd half only	16.4%	15.1%	19.8%	0.76×	6.61
Both score in both halves	5.0%	6.4%	5.0%	1.29×	15.52

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	76.6%	81.9%	83.4%	0.98×	1.22
Both teams to score by HT	23.4%	18.1%	16.6%	1.09×	5.54

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.7%	57.2%	51.9%	1.10×	1.75
A half without a goal	44.3%	42.8%	48.1%	0.89×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.4%	46.3%	48.0%	0.97×	2.16
4-6 goals	27.4%	26.5%	23.3%	1.14×	3.77
0-1 goals	24.1%	23.1%	28.1%	0.82×	4.33
7+ goals	2.2%	1.9%	0.9%	2.07×	53.91

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score exactly 0	37.7%	35.8%	30.9%	1.16×	2.80
Napoli to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.7%	34.9%	1.02×	2.80
Napoli to score exactly 2	17.9%	19.0%	22.8%	0.83×	5.27
Napoli to score 3+	7.6%	5.9%	11.6%	0.51×	16.85

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to score exactly 1	30.2%	33.4%	32.0%	1.04×	3.00
Internazionale to score exactly 2	26.7%	26.9%	24.7%	1.09×	3.71
Internazionale to score 3+	26.1%	26.9%	14.3%	1.88×	3.71
Internazionale to score exactly 0	17.0%	18.4%	29.3%	0.63×	5.43

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	38.6%	38.0%	45.1%	0.84×	2.63
Internazionale leading at HT	38.2%	38.0%	27.6%	1.37×	2.64
Napoli leading at HT	23.2%	20.0%	27.4%	0.73×	5.01

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale -1: 2	44.0%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Internazionale -1: 1	31.6%	29.9%	—	—	3.34
Internazionale -1: X	24.4%	23.9%	—	—	4.19

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:1)	44.0%	44.1%	60.6%	0.73×	2.27
Internazionale (0:1)	31.6%	30.2%	17.3%	1.75×	3.31
Draw (0:1)	24.4%	23.4%	22.3%	1.05×	4.27

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:2)	68.4%	72.1%	82.7%	0.87×	1.39
Draw (0:2)	17.3%	17.5%	9.7%	1.80×	5.73
Internazionale (0:2)	14.3%	10.0%	7.7%	1.31×	9.98

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:3)	85.7%	90.3%	92.3%	0.98×	1.11
Draw (0:3)	9.0%	5.5%	4.6%	1.19×	18.18
Internazionale (0:3)	5.4%	5.4%	3.2%	1.69×	18.51

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:4)	94.6%	94.9%	96.8%	0.98×	1.05
Draw (0:4)	3.7%	1.1%	2.3%	0.48×	91.24
Internazionale (0:4)	1.7%	1.1%	1.0%	1.05×	92.80

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (1:0)	79.4%	80.1%	66.0%	1.21×	1.25
Draw (1:0)	13.5%	10.3%	19.9%	0.52×	9.71
Napoli (1:0)	7.2%	6.5%	14.2%	0.46×	15.32

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (2:0)	92.8%	94.2%	85.8%	1.10×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.2%	5.9%	8.6%	0.69×	16.88
Napoli (2:0)	1.9%	2.2%	5.8%	0.39×	44.85

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	38.1%	39.6%	46.3%	0.86×	2.52
1st half highest scoring	36.4%	38.2%	26.9%	1.42×	2.62
Halves equal	25.6%	26.6%	27.0%	0.99×	3.76

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to concede	62.3%	60.4%	69.1%	0.87×	1.66
Internazionale clean sheet	37.7%	39.6%	30.9%	1.28×	2.52

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale clean sheet in 1st half	57.5%	62.2%	58.8%	1.06×	1.61
Internazionale to concede in 1st half	42.5%	37.8%	41.2%	0.92×	2.65

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale under 6.5 corners	79.0%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Internazionale over 2.5 corners	76.6%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Internazionale under 5.5 corners	68.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Internazionale over 3.5 corners	61.0%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Internazionale under 4.5 corners	54.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Internazionale over 4.5 corners	45.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Internazionale under 3.5 corners	39.0%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Internazionale over 5.5 corners	31.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Internazionale under 2.5 corners	23.4%	23.9%	—	—	4.19
Internazionale over 6.5 corners	21.0%	23.9%	—	—	4.19

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale under 3.5 goals	89.6%	89.8%	95.4%	0.94×	1.11
Internazionale over 0.5 goals	83.0%	81.8%	70.7%	1.16×	1.22
Internazionale under 2.5 goals	73.9%	73.4%	85.7%	0.86×	1.36
Internazionale over 1.5 goals	52.8%	52.5%	38.9%	1.35×	1.91
Internazionale under 1.5 goals	47.2%	47.5%	61.1%	0.78×	2.10
Internazionale over 2.5 goals	26.1%	26.6%	14.3%	1.86×	3.76
Internazionale under 0.5 goals	17.0%	18.2%	29.3%	0.62×	5.50
Internazionale over 3.5 goals	10.4%	10.2%	4.6%	2.21×	9.81

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale under 1.5 in 1st half	80.8%	84.6%	90.2%	0.94×	1.18
Internazionale over 0.5 in 1st half	55.1%	57.9%	41.3%	1.40×	1.73
Internazionale under 0.5 in 1st half	44.9%	42.1%	58.7%	0.72×	2.38
Internazionale over 1.5 in 1st half	19.2%	15.4%	9.8%	1.57×	6.48

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.1%	51.0%	44.0%	1.16×	1.96
Napoli (home no bet)	46.9%	49.0%	56.0%	0.88×	2.04

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale even goals	51.5%	52.1%	57.0%	0.91×	1.92
Internazionale odd goals	48.5%	47.9%	43.0%	1.11×	2.09

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.8%	28.4%	34.1%	0.83×	3.52
HT 1-0	20.7%	23.8%	18.4%	1.29×	4.20
HT 0-1	14.3%	10.9%	18.4%	0.59×	9.18
HT 1-1	11.4%	10.9%	10.6%	1.02×	9.21
HT 2-0	8.3%	6.9%	5.5%	1.26×	14.42
Any other HT score	6.5%	6.9%	2.9%	2.35×	14.44
HT 2-1	4.6%	2.2%	2.3%	0.95×	45.74
HT 0-2	3.9%	2.2%	5.5%	0.40×	45.79
HT 1-2	3.2%	2.2%	2.6%	0.85×	45.86
HT 2-2	1.3%	2.2%	0.6%	3.40×	46.01

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale at HT / Internazionale at FT	33.9%	31.9%	21.4%	1.49×	3.14
Draw at HT / Internazionale at FT	18.6%	17.0%	15.7%	1.08×	5.87
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.9%	12.8%	16.8%	0.77×	7.80
Napoli at HT / Napoli at FT	13.8%	12.8%	19.3%	0.66×	7.80
Draw at HT / Napoli at FT	6.1%	6.0%	12.9%	0.47×	16.58
Napoli at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.0%	5.8%	1.05×	16.58
Internazionale at HT / Draw at FT	3.5%	3.3%	4.5%	0.74×	30.08
Napoli at HT / Internazionale at FT	3.6%	3.3%	2.6%	1.30×	30.07
Internazionale at HT / Napoli at FT	0.8%	3.3%	2.0%	1.62×	30.19

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to score last	60.3%	60.0%	48.1%	1.25×	1.67
Napoli to score last	33.3%	31.4%	43.7%	0.72×	3.18
No goal scored	6.4%	8.3%	8.3%	1.00×	12.01

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.6%	91.8%	91.7%	1.00×	1.09
Internazionale to lead by 1 at any time	69.0%	68.1%	54.5%	1.25×	1.47
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.2%	43.5%	42.7%	1.02×	2.30
Napoli to lead by 1 at any time	38.1%	33.5%	50.8%	0.66×	2.98
Internazionale to lead by 2 at any time	37.9%	33.5%	23.0%	1.46×	2.98
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.6%	14.8%	14.6%	1.01×	6.78
Internazionale to lead by 3 at any time	16.8%	14.7%	8.4%	1.74×	6.80
Napoli to lead by 2 at any time	11.5%	10.1%	20.1%	0.51×	9.86
Napoli to lead by 3 at any time	2.8%	1.5%	6.3%	0.24×	65.77

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale most corners	55.1%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Napoli most corners	33.1%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Corners level	11.8%	10.7%	—	—	9.39

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.5%	86.6%	89.0%	0.97×	1.15
1-4 goals	79.2%	77.2%	80.8%	0.95×	1.30
2-6 goals	73.7%	72.0%	71.1%	1.01×	1.39
2-5 goals	69.9%	68.3%	69.2%	0.99×	1.47
1-3 goals	64.0%	62.5%	67.8%	0.92×	1.60
2-4 goals	61.6%	62.5%	61.0%	1.02×	1.60
3-6 goals	49.5%	46.4%	46.2%	1.00×	2.16
2-3 goals	46.4%	46.3%	48.0%	0.97×	2.16
3-5 goals	45.7%	46.3%	44.2%	1.05×	2.16
1-2 goals	41.8%	42.8%	44.9%	0.95×	2.34
3-4 goals	37.4%	38.1%	36.1%	1.06×	2.63
4-6 goals	27.4%	26.2%	23.3%	1.12×	3.82
4-5 goals	23.6%	19.9%	21.4%	0.93×	5.03
5-6 goals	12.2%	10.8%	10.2%	1.05×	9.28
7+ goals	2.2%	1.9%	0.9%	2.16×	51.76

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale never behind	55.5%	63.5%	49.2%	1.29×	1.58
Napoli never behind	24.5%	26.7%	45.5%	0.59×	3.74

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	50.2%	50.7%	48.5%	1.05×	1.97
Odd number of goals	49.8%	49.3%	51.5%	0.96×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.3%	51.9%	56.7%	0.92×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.7%	48.1%	43.4%	1.11×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.1%	52.9%	51.8%	1.02×	1.89
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.9%	47.1%	48.2%	0.98×	2.12

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.0%	92.6%	97.2%	0.95×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.6%	92.6%	91.7%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.6%	89.0%	89.0%	1.00×	1.12
Over 1.5 goals	75.9%	79.3%	71.9%	1.10×	1.26
Under 3.5 goals	70.4%	73.8%	76.0%	0.97×	1.36
Over 2.5 goals	51.7%	51.0%	46.9%	1.09×	1.96
Under 2.5 goals	48.3%	49.0%	53.1%	0.92×	2.04
Over 3.5 goals	29.6%	26.2%	24.0%	1.09×	3.81
Under 1.5 goals	24.1%	20.7%	28.1%	0.74×	4.83
Over 4.5 goals	14.4%	11.0%	11.0%	1.00×	9.09
Under 0.5 goals	6.4%	7.4%	8.3%	0.89×	13.46
Over 5.5 goals	6.0%	7.4%	2.8%	2.64×	13.47

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.7%	98.2%	99.1%	0.99×	1.02
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.4%	94.8%	96.9%	0.98×	1.06
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.0%	84.0%	87.4%	0.96×	1.19
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	68.3%	68.3%	62.5%	1.09×	1.46
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.0%	64.9%	68.8%	0.94×	1.54
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	38.0%	35.1%	31.2%	1.13×	2.85
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	31.7%	31.7%	37.5%	0.85×	3.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.0%	16.0%	12.6%	1.26×	6.26
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.6%	5.2%	3.1%	1.71×	19.06
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.3%	1.8%	0.9%	1.97×	55.57

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.4%	86.6%	91.9%	0.94×	1.15
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.2%	71.0%	65.9%	1.08×	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.8%	63.3%	70.7%	0.90×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.2%	36.7%	29.3%	1.25×	2.73
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.8%	29.0%	34.1%	0.85×	3.44
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.6%	13.4%	8.1%	1.66×	7.49

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	83.6%	82.6%	82.9%	1.00×	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.1%	79.6%	77.7%	1.02×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	59.5%	55.0%	57.2%	0.96×	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	40.5%	45.0%	42.8%	1.05×	2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.9%	20.4%	22.3%	0.92×	4.89
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	16.4%	17.4%	17.1%	1.02×	5.75

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli not to score in both halves	85.4%	86.2%	78.8%	1.09×	1.16
Internazionale not to score in both halves	65.8%	70.4%	76.1%	0.92×	1.42
Internazionale to score in both halves	34.2%	29.6%	23.9%	1.24×	3.38
Napoli to score in both halves	14.6%	13.8%	21.2%	0.65×	7.22

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.7%	52.2%	48.1%	1.08×	1.92
Only Internazionale scores	31.3%	33.3%	22.8%	1.46×	3.00
Only Napoli scores	10.6%	12.8%	21.1%	0.61×	7.79
Neither team scores	6.4%	7.5%	8.3%	0.90×	13.32

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.2%	22.5%	25.1%	0.90×	4.44
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.5%	23.0%	0.98×	4.44
Exactly 1 goals	17.6%	18.3%	19.9%	0.92×	5.46
Exactly 4 goals	15.2%	18.3%	13.2%	1.39×	5.47
Exactly 5 goals	8.3%	7.6%	8.3%	0.91×	13.16
Exactly 0 goals	6.4%	7.6%	8.3%	0.91×	13.19
6 or more goals	6.0%	7.6%	2.8%	2.69×	13.20

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	40.5%	43.7%	42.8%	1.02×	2.29
1 goal in 2nd half	34.6%	34.2%	35.0%	0.98×	2.92
No goals in 2nd half	24.9%	24.0%	22.3%	1.08×	4.16

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli not to win both halves	96.4%	97.3%	91.4%	1.06×	1.03
Internazionale not to win both halves	81.6%	84.5%	90.2%	0.94×	1.18
Internazionale to win both halves	18.4%	15.5%	9.8%	1.57×	6.46
Napoli to win both halves	3.6%	2.7%	8.6%	0.32×	36.74

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to win either half	67.9%	67.6%	52.4%	1.29×	1.48
Napoli to win neither half	64.7%	64.9%	51.8%	1.25×	1.54
Napoli to win either half	35.3%	35.1%	48.2%	0.73×	2.85
Internazionale to win neither half	32.1%	32.4%	47.6%	0.68×	3.08

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli not to win to nil	89.4%	88.7%	78.9%	1.12×	1.13
Internazionale not to win to nil	68.7%	65.4%	77.2%	0.85×	1.53
Internazionale to win to nil	31.3%	34.6%	22.8%	1.52×	2.89
Napoli to win to nil	10.6%	11.3%	21.1%	0.54×	8.84

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale by 1	24.4%	24.9%	22.3%	1.12×	4.02
Draw	23.3%	24.9%	26.7%	0.93×	4.02
Internazionale by 2	17.3%	17.2%	9.7%	1.77×	5.83
Internazionale by 3+	14.3%	11.0%	7.7%	1.43×	9.10
Napoli by 1	13.5%	11.0%	19.9%	0.55×	9.10
Napoli by 2	5.2%	6.2%	8.6%	0.72×	16.21
Napoli by 3+	1.9%	2.2%	5.8%	0.38×	46.06

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Internazionale 3.88 xGNapoli 2.41 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Internazionale attacking right Napoli attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
1'	Internazionale	Andy Diouf	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Lautaro Martínez
1'	Internazionale	Piotr Zielinski	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
5'	Napoli	Franck Zambo	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Alisson Santos
5'	Napoli	Matteo Politano	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
8'	Internazionale	Piotr Zielinski	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Andy Diouf
10'	Internazionale	Piotr Zielinski	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Andy Diouf
11'	Internazionale	Francesco Pio Esposito	0.04	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Andy Diouf
21'	Napoli	Alisson Santos	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Antonio Vergara
22'	Internazionale	Federico Dimarco	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
24'	Internazionale	Francesco Pio Esposito	0.05	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Federico Dimarco
28'	Napoli	Franck Zambo	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Giovanni Di Lorenzo
35'	Internazionale	Yann Bisseck	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Andy Diouf
45'	Napoli	Rafa Marín	0.04	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	—
45'	Napoli	Rasmus Højlund	0.10	From Corner	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Rafa Marín
46'	Internazionale	Lautaro Martínez	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
48'	Internazionale	Federico Dimarco	0.07	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Shot On Post	—
49'	Napoli	Matteo Politano	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
49'	Napoli	Matteo Politano	0.32	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
49'	Napoli	Stanislav Lobotka	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Alisson Santos
51'	Internazionale	Piotr Zielinski	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
52'	Napoli	Alisson Santos	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Leonardo Spinazzola
52'	Napoli	Franck Zambo	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Matteo Politano
52'	Napoli	Rasmus Højlund	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Giovanni Di Lorenzo
54'	Internazionale	Federico Dimarco	0.02	From Corner	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
54'	Internazionale	Lautaro Martínez	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Yann Bisseck
55'	Internazionale	Curtis Jones	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Andy Diouf
55'	Internazionale	Lautaro Martínez	0.79	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Federico Dimarco
58'	Internazionale	Lautaro Martínez	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Piotr Zielinski
59'	Internazionale	Federico Dimarco	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
60'	Internazionale	Lautaro Martínez	0.14	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Federico Dimarco
62'	Internazionale	Yann Bisseck	0.02	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Nicolò Barella
64'	Internazionale	Marcus Thuram	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Lautaro Martínez
66'	Internazionale	Andy Diouf	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Marcus Thuram
72'	Internazionale	Marcus Thuram	0.54	Open Play	—	Shot On Post	Andy Diouf
73'	Internazionale	Manuel Akanji	0.05	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Hakan Calhanoglu
75'	Napoli	Alisson Santos	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Leonardo Spinazzola
77'	Internazionale	Marcus Thuram	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Andy Diouf
81'	Internazionale	Marcus Thuram	0.31	Open Play	—	Goal	Carlos Augusto
87'	Internazionale	Marcus Thuram	0.32	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Hakan Calhanoglu
87'	Napoli	David Neres	0.37	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
88'	Napoli	Franck Zambo	0.93	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Lorenzo Lucca
88'	Napoli	Lorenzo Lucca	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Kevin De Bruyne
89'	Internazionale	Nicolò Barella	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Curtis Jones
90'	Internazionale	Lautaro Martínez	0.73	From Corner	Left Foot	Goal	Manuel Akanji
90'	Internazionale	Manuel Akanji	0.13	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—

Players

Internazionale

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Lautaro Martínez FW	90	2	0	6	2	1.86	0.13	1.70
Manuel Akanji DC	90	0	1	2	1	0.19	0.73	0.70
Andy Diouf DMR	90	0	0	2	7	0.10	0.77	1.04
Yann Bisseck DC	90	0	0	2	1	0.08	0.08	0.83
Nicolò Barella MC	90	0	0	1	1	0.04	0.02	1.17
Josep Martínez GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.09
Alessandro Bastoni DC	83	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.85
Piotr Zielinski MC	76	0	0	4	1	0.11	0.07	1.20
Federico Dimarco DML	66	0	1	4	3	0.13	0.98	1.12
Francesco Pio Esposito FW	50	0	0	2	0	0.10	0.00	0.10
Petar Sucic MC	50	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.22
Marcus Thuram Sub	40	1	0	5	1	1.28	0.04	2.11
Curtis Jones Sub	40	0	0	1	1	0.01	0.04	0.64
Carlos Augusto Sub	24	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.31	0.90
Hakan Calhanoglu Sub	14	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.37	0.86
Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub	7	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Napoli

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Franck Zambo MC	90	0	0	4	0	1.24	0.00	1.29
Rafa Marín DC	90	0	0	1	1	0.04	0.10	0.04
Leonardo Spinazzola DL	90	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.08	0.12
Giovanni Di Lorenzo DR	90	0	1	0	2	0.00	0.13	0.15
Alex Meret GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.08
Amir Rrahmani DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.13
Alisson Santos FWL	84	0	0	3	2	0.10	0.12	0.22
Stanislav Lobotka MC	83	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.04
Rasmus Højlund FW	76	1	0	2	0	0.13	0.00	0.04
Matteo Politano FWR	66	1	0	3	1	0.47	0.11	0.70
Antonio Vergara MC	66	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.08
David Neres Sub	24	0	0	1	0	0.37	0.00	0.42
Kevin De Bruyne Sub	24	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.06	0.06
Lorenzo Lucca Sub	14	0	0	1	1	0.06	0.93	1.02
Billy Gilmour Sub	7	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Benoit Badiashile Mukinayi Sub	6	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

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