Juan Pablo II v Alianza Lima — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Juan Pablo II

16:00

Alianza Lima

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 12h before kick-off

Juan Pablo II win

21.1%

model 22.2%

Draw

21.2%

model 22.8%

Alianza Lima win

57.7%

model 55.1%

212158

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (282 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-1 10.8%
1-1 10.8%
1-2 9.8%
0-2 9.4%
1-0 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	53.7%	Under 2.5	46.3%
BTTS yes	53.6%	BTTS no	46.4%
Juan Pablo II 1+	64.7%	Juan Pablo II 2+	27.9%
Alianza Lima 1+	83.3%	Alianza Lima 2+	53.3%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.79. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Alianza Lima (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 25%

56.8% fair odds 1.76

strong signal · 920 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1161 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Alianza Lima carry the stronger rating, 1676 Elo against 1425.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Alianza Lima have an estimated 57.7% win probability, against 21.2% for the draw and 21.1% for Juan Pablo II. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.04 for Juan Pablo II and 1.79 for Alianza Lima.

Why Juan Pablo II

Nothing in the data singles out Juan Pablo II.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.2%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Alianza Lima can win

Alianza Lima carry the stronger rating, 1676 Elo against 1425.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Juan Pablo II, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Alianza Lima, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Juan Pablo II: 45% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Alianza Lima: 64% possession, 19.8 shots a match, 7.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Alianza Lima are the model's most likely outcome at 57.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	222355	1.04–1.79	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	242452	1.01–1.63	0-1 12%	49%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima to win	51.9%	51.4%	25.1%	2.05×	1.94
Draw	24.2%	24.4%	25.1%	0.97×	4.09
Juan Pablo II to win	23.8%	24.4%	50.0%	0.49×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima & not both score	29.4%	25.2%	12.2%	2.07×	3.97
Alianza Lima & both teams score	22.5%	21.9%	13.1%	1.67×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	17.3%	17.9%	17.5%	1.03×	5.58
Juan Pablo II & not both score	12.8%	13.2%	26.5%	0.50×	7.55
Juan Pablo II & both teams score	11.0%	13.2%	23.6%	0.56×	7.55
Draw & not both score	6.9%	8.4%	7.8%	1.07×	11.95

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima & over 1.5	40.1%	40.3%	17.3%	2.33×	2.48
Alianza Lima & under 3.5	36.0%	34.9%	19.1%	1.83×	2.86
Alianza Lima & over 2.5	30.6%	30.9%	14.4%	2.15×	3.24
Alianza Lima & under 2.5	21.3%	21.6%	10.9%	1.98×	4.62
Juan Pablo II & under 3.5	18.3%	18.0%	33.8%	0.53×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.4%	18.0%	18.9%	0.95×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.4%	18.0%	18.9%	0.95×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.3%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Juan Pablo II & over 1.5	16.3%	18.0%	38.2%	0.47×	5.56
Alianza Lima & over 3.5	15.9%	18.0%	6.2%	2.91×	5.56
Juan Pablo II & over 2.5	12.7%	12.9%	30.9%	0.42×	7.78
Alianza Lima & under 1.5	11.9%	12.9%	8.0%	1.61×	7.78
Juan Pablo II & under 2.5	11.1%	12.9%	19.3%	0.67×	7.78
Juan Pablo II & under 1.5	7.5%	7.9%	12.0%	0.66×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	6.9%	7.9%	7.8%	1.01×	12.69
Juan Pablo II & over 3.5	5.5%	7.9%	16.4%	0.48×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	5.8%	7.9%	6.4%	1.24×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	5.8%	7.9%	6.4%	1.24×	12.69

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima (1UP)	65.5%	69.8%	—	—	1.43
Juan Pablo II (1UP)	40.8%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima (2UP)	51.9%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Juan Pablo II (2UP)	23.8%	23.7%	—	—	4.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima to win 2nd half	44.1%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
2nd half drawn	34.7%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Juan Pablo II to win 2nd half	21.2%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima (+2.5)	97.6%	96.3%	88.5%	1.09×	1.04
Alianza Lima (+1.5)	91.5%	92.1%	75.3%	1.22×	1.09
Alianza Lima (+0.5)	76.2%	78.5%	50.0%	1.57×	1.28
Alianza Lima (-0.5)	51.9%	52.3%	25.1%	2.09×	1.91
Juan Pablo II (+0.5)	48.1%	47.7%	74.9%	0.64×	2.10
Juan Pablo II (-0.5)	23.8%	21.5%	50.0%	0.43×	4.64
Juan Pablo II (-1.5)	8.5%	7.9%	24.7%	0.32×	12.66
Juan Pablo II (-2.5)	2.4%	3.7%	11.5%	0.33×	26.86

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima to concede	63.7%	67.2%	80.2%	0.84×	1.49
Alianza Lima clean sheet	36.3%	32.8%	19.8%	1.65×	3.05

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima clean sheet in 1st half	64.7%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Alianza Lima to concede in 1st half	35.3%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima under 6.5 corners	82.4%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Alianza Lima under 5.5 corners	72.7%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Alianza Lima over 2.5 corners	72.5%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Alianza Lima under 4.5 corners	59.7%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Alianza Lima over 3.5 corners	55.9%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Alianza Lima under 3.5 corners	44.1%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Alianza Lima over 4.5 corners	40.3%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Alianza Lima under 2.5 corners	27.5%	27.7%	—	—	3.62
Alianza Lima over 5.5 corners	27.3%	27.7%	—	—	3.62
Alianza Lima over 6.5 corners	17.6%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima under 3.5 goals	91.8%	92.3%	97.5%	0.95×	1.08
Alianza Lima over 0.5 goals	80.3%	81.5%	65.8%	1.24×	1.23
Alianza Lima under 2.5 goals	77.7%	76.2%	92.0%	0.83×	1.31
Alianza Lima under 1.5 goals	51.7%	53.7%	71.6%	0.75×	1.86
Alianza Lima over 1.5 goals	48.3%	46.3%	28.4%	1.63×	2.16
Alianza Lima over 2.5 goals	22.3%	23.8%	8.0%	2.97×	4.21
Alianza Lima under 0.5 goals	19.7%	18.5%	34.2%	0.54×	5.39
Alianza Lima over 3.5 goals	8.2%	7.7%	2.5%	3.01×	13.06

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima under 1.5 in 1st half	86.1%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Alianza Lima under 0.5 in 1st half	52.2%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Alianza Lima over 0.5 in 1st half	47.8%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
Alianza Lima over 1.5 in 1st half	13.9%	10.5%	—	—	9.50

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	50.5%	51.2%	33.4%	1.53×	1.95
Juan Pablo II (away no bet)	49.5%	48.8%	66.6%	0.73×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima even goals	51.9%	52.7%	56.9%	0.93×	1.90
Alianza Lima odd goals	48.1%	47.3%	43.1%	1.10×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.4%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.23

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	61.8%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	38.2%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	54.9%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
Alianza Lima to score 2+ in a row	40.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.9%	16.5%	—	—	6.07
Juan Pablo II to score 2+ in a row	19.3%	16.5%	—	—	6.08
Alianza Lima to score 3+ in a row	15.7%	16.4%	—	—	6.11
Juan Pablo II to score 3+ in a row	4.4%	2.7%	—	—	37.41

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima corners (+3.5)	92.2%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Alianza Lima corners (+2.5)	86.7%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Alianza Lima corners (+1.5)	78.7%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Juan Pablo II corners (+3.5)	78.4%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Juan Pablo II corners (+2.5)	68.6%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Juan Pablo II corners (+1.5)	56.9%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Alianza Lima corners (-1.5)	43.1%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Alianza Lima corners (-2.5)	31.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Alianza Lima corners (-3.5)	21.6%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Juan Pablo II corners (-1.5)	21.3%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Juan Pablo II corners (-2.5)	13.3%	15.8%	—	—	6.31
Juan Pablo II corners (-3.5)	7.8%	11.3%	—	—	8.81

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	66.2%	48.9%	—	—	2.05
9-11 corners	22.3%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
12+ corners	11.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	92.5%	86.0%	—	—	1.16
Under 11.5 corners	88.5%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 10.5 corners	82.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 9.5 corners	75.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 8.5 corners	66.2%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Under 7.5 corners	55.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	44.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 8.5 corners	33.8%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 9.5 corners	24.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 10.5 corners	17.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.96
Over 11.5 corners	11.5%	17.2%	—	—	5.82
Over 12.5 corners	7.5%	14.0%	—	—	7.16

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	11.9%	11.5%	8.0%	1.43×	8.73
1-1	11.5%	11.5%	11.3%	1.02×	8.73
0-2	9.5%	7.4%	3.1%	2.40×	13.46
1-2	9.6%	7.4%	7.5%	1.00×	13.46
0-0	6.9%	7.4%	7.8%	0.95×	13.46
1-0	7.5%	7.4%	12.0%	0.62×	13.46
0-3	5.1%	7.4%	1.1%	6.81×	13.46
1-3	5.2%	7.4%	2.0%	3.71×	13.46
2-1	6.0%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.46
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	5.6%	0.30×	58.56
0-4	2.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.13×	58.58
1-4	2.1%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.58
2-0	3.7%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.57
2-3	2.6%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.58
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.59
3-0	1.2%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.59
3-1	2.0%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.58
3-2	1.6%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.58
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.59
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.35×	58.59
4-0	0.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.59
4-1	0.5%	1.7%	2.5%	0.67×	58.59
4-2	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.56×	58.59
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.4%	4.69×	58.59
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	9.39×	58.59
Any other score	2.9%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.58

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima leading at HT (DNB)	62.6%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Juan Pablo II leading at HT (DNB)	37.4%	33.7%	—	—	2.97

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima or draw (X2)	76.2%	75.6%	50.0%	1.51×	1.32
Juan Pablo II or Alianza Lima (12)	75.8%	75.6%	74.9%	1.01×	1.32
Juan Pablo II or draw (1X)	48.1%	48.6%	74.9%	0.65×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima or draw at HT	79.0%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
Juan Pablo II or draw at HT	64.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Juan Pablo II or Alianza Lima at HT	56.1%	56.8%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima or draw (1UP)	76.2%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Juan Pablo II or draw (1UP)	48.1%	52.3%	—	—	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima or draw in 2nd half	78.8%	77.1%	—	—	1.30
Juan Pablo II or Alianza Lima in 2nd half	65.3%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Juan Pablo II or draw in 2nd half	55.9%	58.7%	—	—	1.71

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.7%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	36.3%	38.4%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima (DNB)	68.6%	67.2%	33.4%	2.01×	1.49
Juan Pablo II (DNB)	31.4%	32.8%	66.6%	0.49×	3.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima to score first	57.4%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Juan Pablo II to score first	35.7%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
No goal scored	6.9%	7.4%	—	—	13.56

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.9%	51.4%	53.8%	0.96×	1.94
Not both teams to score	49.1%	48.6%	46.2%	1.05×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	39.4%	38.5%	42.7%	0.90×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	39.4%	38.5%	37.6%	1.02×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	11.5%	12.3%	11.3%	1.09×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	9.7%	8.4%	8.7%	0.96×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.0%	85.7%	85.6%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.0%	14.3%	14.4%	1.00×	6.98

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.8%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.2%	25.5%	—	—	3.93

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	60.6%	66.5%	—	—	1.50
Both score 2nd half only	22.6%	21.1%	—	—	4.73
Both score 1st half only	12.2%	10.5%	—	—	9.54
Both score in both halves	4.6%	5.0%	—	—	19.98

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.2%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.8%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.1%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A half without a goal	47.9%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.5%	47.4%	44.2%	1.07×	2.11
0-1 goals	26.3%	26.4%	27.5%	0.96×	3.79
4-6 goals	25.4%	26.4%	26.9%	0.98×	3.79
7+ goals	1.8%	1.8%	1.8%	1.00×	55.25

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima to score exactly 1	32.0%	33.9%	37.6%	0.90×	2.95
Alianza Lima to score exactly 2	26.0%	27.4%	20.5%	1.33×	3.65
Alianza Lima to score 3+	22.3%	22.4%	8.0%	2.80×	4.47
Alianza Lima to score exactly 0	19.7%	19.6%	34.2%	0.57×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.6%	32.9%	1.08×	2.81
Juan Pablo II to score exactly 0	36.3%	35.6%	19.8%	1.80×	2.81
Juan Pablo II to score exactly 2	18.6%	18.9%	25.1%	0.75×	5.30
Juan Pablo II to score 3+	8.3%	10.3%	22.5%	0.46×	9.69

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.9%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Alianza Lima leading at HT	35.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Juan Pablo II leading at HT	21.0%	19.9%	—	—	5.02

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima -1: 1	48.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Alianza Lima -1: 2	27.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Alianza Lima -1: X	24.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima (0:1)	76.2%	73.7%	50.0%	1.47×	1.36
Draw (0:1)	15.3%	17.8%	25.5%	0.70×	5.63
Juan Pablo II (0:1)	8.5%	9.3%	24.7%	0.37×	10.80

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima (0:2)	91.5%	90.8%	75.3%	1.21×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	6.1%	7.7%	13.5%	0.57×	12.99
Juan Pablo II (0:2)	2.4%	3.8%	11.5%	0.33×	26.55

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima (0:3)	97.6%	96.6%	88.5%	1.09×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	1.8%	2.4%	7.6%	0.31×	42.06
Juan Pablo II (0:3)	0.5%	2.4%	4.0%	0.59×	42.12

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima (0:4)	99.5%	98.1%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	2.5%	0.47×	83.43
Juan Pablo II (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.6%	0.73×	83.47

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II (1:0)	48.1%	49.8%	74.9%	0.66×	2.01
Alianza Lima (1:0)	27.5%	25.1%	7.6%	3.29×	3.98
Draw (1:0)	24.5%	21.7%	17.6%	1.23×	4.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II (2:0)	72.5%	76.4%	92.4%	0.83×	1.31
Draw (2:0)	15.8%	15.6%	5.6%	2.77×	6.40
Alianza Lima (2:0)	11.7%	10.4%	2.2%	4.76×	9.62

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.3%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
1st half highest scoring	26.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	25.0%	24.3%	—	—	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II to concede	80.3%	80.7%	65.8%	1.23×	1.24
Juan Pablo II clean sheet	19.7%	19.3%	34.2%	0.56×	5.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II clean sheet in 1st half	52.2%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Juan Pablo II to concede in 1st half	47.8%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II under 6.5 corners	92.6%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Juan Pablo II under 5.5 corners	86.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Juan Pablo II under 4.5 corners	76.2%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Juan Pablo II under 3.5 corners	61.6%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Juan Pablo II over 2.5 corners	57.2%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Juan Pablo II under 2.5 corners	42.8%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Juan Pablo II over 3.5 corners	38.4%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Juan Pablo II over 4.5 corners	23.8%	23.9%	—	—	4.19
Juan Pablo II over 5.5 corners	13.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.75
Juan Pablo II over 6.5 corners	7.4%	11.7%	—	—	8.54

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II under 3.5 goals	98.0%	96.4%	92.4%	1.04×	1.04
Juan Pablo II under 2.5 goals	91.7%	92.2%	77.5%	1.19×	1.08
Juan Pablo II under 1.5 goals	73.1%	74.2%	52.5%	1.41×	1.35
Juan Pablo II over 0.5 goals	63.7%	63.4%	80.2%	0.79×	1.58
Juan Pablo II under 0.5 goals	36.3%	36.6%	19.8%	1.85×	2.73
Juan Pablo II over 1.5 goals	26.9%	25.8%	47.5%	0.54×	3.88
Juan Pablo II over 2.5 goals	8.3%	7.8%	22.5%	0.34×	12.88
Juan Pablo II over 3.5 goals	2.0%	3.6%	7.6%	0.48×	27.47

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II under 1.5 in 1st half	92.9%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Juan Pablo II under 0.5 in 1st half	64.7%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Juan Pablo II over 0.5 in 1st half	35.3%	35.2%	—	—	2.84
Juan Pablo II over 1.5 in 1st half	7.1%	4.5%	—	—	22.43

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima (home no bet)	68.2%	63.8%	50.0%	1.28×	1.57
Draw (home no bet)	31.8%	36.2%	50.0%	0.72×	2.77

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II even goals	56.6%	55.5%	50.5%	1.10×	1.80
Juan Pablo II odd goals	43.4%	44.5%	49.5%	0.90×	2.25

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	33.7%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
HT 0-1	22.0%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 1-0	14.7%	11.1%	—	—	9.02
HT 1-1	9.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.07
HT 0-2	7.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.11
Any other HT score	3.8%	2.2%	—	—	44.64
HT 2-0	3.2%	2.2%	—	—	44.69
HT 1-2	3.1%	2.2%	—	—	44.69
HT 2-1	2.1%	2.2%	—	—	44.78
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.2%	—	—	44.89

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima at HT / Alianza Lima at FT	29.4%	26.8%	—	—	3.74
Draw at HT / Alianza Lima at FT	19.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Juan Pablo II at HT / Juan Pablo II at FT	13.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Juan Pablo II at FT	9.4%	6.1%	—	—	16.51
Juan Pablo II at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.09
Alianza Lima at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.4%	—	—	29.11
Juan Pablo II at HT / Alianza Lima at FT	3.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.16
Alianza Lima at HT / Juan Pablo II at FT	1.4%	3.4%	—	—	29.23

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima to score last	57.4%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Juan Pablo II to score last	35.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
No goal scored	6.9%	7.4%	—	—	13.56

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.1%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Alianza Lima to lead by 1 at any time	65.5%	69.3%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.4%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Juan Pablo II to lead by 1 at any time	40.8%	39.0%	—	—	2.57
Alianza Lima to lead by 2 at any time	33.6%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.2%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Alianza Lima to lead by 3 at any time	13.9%	10.5%	—	—	9.54
Juan Pablo II to lead by 2 at any time	13.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
Juan Pablo II to lead by 3 at any time	3.3%	1.6%	—	—	62.50

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima most corners	55.8%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
Juan Pablo II most corners	31.9%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Corners level	12.3%	10.7%	—	—	9.39

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.9%	87.4%	87.1%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.3%	83.5%	78.0%	1.07×	1.20
2-6 goals	71.9%	72.4%	70.9%	1.02×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.6%	69.0%	67.5%	1.02×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.9%	69.0%	63.8%	1.08×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.9%	63.5%	58.4%	1.09×	1.58
3-6 goals	47.3%	48.7%	49.6%	0.98×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.5%	48.7%	44.2%	1.10×	2.06
1-2 goals	44.0%	43.6%	41.1%	1.06×	2.29
3-5 goals	43.9%	43.6%	46.2%	0.94×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.3%	39.2%	37.1%	1.06×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.4%	30.2%	26.9%	1.12×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.0%	24.4%	23.5%	1.04×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.0%	14.8%	12.7%	1.17×	6.74
7+ goals	1.8%	2.5%	1.8%	1.39×	39.50

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima never behind	52.3%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Juan Pablo II never behind	27.6%	30.0%	—	—	3.34

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.8%	50.8%	46.9%	1.08×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.2%	49.2%	53.1%	0.93×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.1%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.9%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.8%	92.3%	94.7%	0.97×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.1%	92.3%	92.2%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.2%	87.7%	85.6%	1.02×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	73.7%	72.5%	72.5%	1.00×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.8%	72.5%	71.5%	1.02×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	50.9%	52.4%	48.7%	1.08×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	49.1%	47.6%	51.3%	0.93×	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	27.2%	27.5%	28.5%	0.96×	3.64
Under 1.5 goals	26.3%	27.5%	27.5%	1.00×	3.64
Over 4.5 goals	12.8%	12.3%	14.4%	0.86×	8.11
Under 0.5 goals	6.9%	7.7%	7.8%	0.99×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	5.2%	7.7%	5.3%	1.46×	12.96

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.1%	97.3%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.4%	92.5%	94.2%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.0%	86.7%	83.3%	1.04×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.2%	67.3%	65.1%	1.03×	1.49
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.2%	67.3%	63.1%	1.07×	1.49
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.8%	32.7%	34.9%	0.94×	3.06
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.8%	32.7%	36.9%	0.89×	3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.0%	13.3%	16.7%	0.79×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.6%	7.5%	5.8%	1.30×	13.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.9%	2.7%	1.9%	1.46×	36.39

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.3%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	70.5%	71.0%	—	—	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.3%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	33.7%	31.0%	—	—	3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half	29.5%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.7%	7.3%	—	—	13.69

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.6%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.9%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.1%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.4%	20.0%	—	—	5.00

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II not to score in both halves	84.5%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Alianza Lima not to score in both halves	70.2%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Alianza Lima to score in both halves	29.8%	25.8%	—	—	3.87
Juan Pablo II to score in both halves	15.5%	15.6%	—	—	6.40

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	50.9%	53.9%	53.8%	1.00×	1.85
Only Alianza Lima scores	29.4%	26.2%	12.2%	2.15×	3.82
Only Juan Pablo II scores	12.8%	10.9%	26.5%	0.41×	9.14
Neither team scores	6.9%	7.2%	7.8%	0.92×	13.95

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.6%	22.7%	21.5%	1.06×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	22.6%	22.9%	0.99×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	19.4%	17.5%	19.8%	0.88×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.4%	12.1%	14.4%	0.84×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	7.6%	7.6%	9.3%	0.82×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.9%	7.6%	7.8%	0.97×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.2%	7.6%	5.3%	1.44×	13.14

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.9%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	33.0%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	21.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.28

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II not to win both halves	95.6%	97.1%	—	—	1.03
Alianza Lima not to win both halves	84.6%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Alianza Lima to win both halves	15.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
Juan Pablo II to win both halves	4.4%	2.9%	—	—	34.88

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima to win either half	63.7%	65.4%	—	—	1.53
Juan Pablo II to win neither half	62.2%	65.3%	—	—	1.53
Juan Pablo II to win either half	37.8%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Alianza Lima to win neither half	36.3%	34.6%	—	—	2.89

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II not to win to nil	87.2%	88.2%	73.5%	1.20×	1.13
Alianza Lima not to win to nil	70.6%	75.2%	87.8%	0.86×	1.33
Alianza Lima to win to nil	29.4%	24.8%	12.2%	2.03×	4.04
Juan Pablo II to win to nil	12.8%	11.8%	26.5%	0.44×	8.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Lima by 1	24.5%	24.1%	17.6%	1.37×	4.14
Draw	24.2%	24.1%	25.1%	0.96×	4.14
Alianza Lima by 2	15.8%	16.9%	5.6%	3.01×	5.90
Juan Pablo II by 1	15.3%	16.9%	25.5%	0.67×	5.90
Alianza Lima by 3+	11.7%	11.8%	2.2%	5.42×	8.46
Juan Pablo II by 2	6.1%	7.2%	13.5%	0.54×	13.81
Juan Pablo II by 3+	2.4%	2.7%	11.5%	0.24×	36.99