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Krasnodar v Akron Tolyatti — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · RUS-Premier League · 2627

RUS-Premier League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Krasnodar win
76.0%
model 76.4%
Draw
17.6%
model 15.7%
Akron Tolyatti win
6.4%
model 7.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (50 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 11.5%
  2. 3-0 10.1%
  3. 2-1 8.9%
  4. 1-0 8.1%
  5. 3-1 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.566.1% Under 2.533.9%
BTTS yes50.5% BTTS no49.5%
Krasnodar 1+92.8% Krasnodar 2+73.9%
Akron Tolyatti 1+53.7% Akron Tolyatti 2+18.0%

Expected goals 2.63 – 0.77. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
76/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
Krasnodar (-1.5)
Asian handicap · usually 23%
56.8% fair odds 1.76
strong signal · 920 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
83.5% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 384 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Krasnodar carry the stronger rating, 1768 Elo against 1343.
  • Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Krasnodar have an estimated 76.0% win probability, against 17.6% for the draw and 6.4% for Akron Tolyatti. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.63 for Krasnodar and 0.77 for Akron Tolyatti.

Why Krasnodar

Krasnodar carry the stronger rating, 1768 Elo against 1343. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.6%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Akron Tolyatti can win

Nothing in the data singles out Akron Tolyatti.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Krasnodar, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Akron Tolyatti, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Krasnodar: 53% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Akron Tolyatti: 55% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Krasnodar are the model's most likely outcome at 76.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11.5%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.63–0.77 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.91–0.67 2-0 12% 69% 47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to win 82.2% 80.8% 44.2% 1.83× 1.24
Draw 12.6% 13.3% 27.8% 0.48× 7.51
Akron Tolyatti to win 5.2% 7.9% 28.2% 0.28× 12.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar & not both score 48.0% 42.9% 25.6% 1.68× 2.33
Krasnodar & both teams score 34.2% 29.8% 18.8% 1.58× 3.36
Draw & both teams score 9.2% 8.4% 20.7% 0.41× 11.94
Draw & not both score 3.3% 4.9% 7.4% 0.66× 20.51
Akron Tolyatti & both teams score 3.1% 4.9% 13.5% 0.36× 20.52
Akron Tolyatti & not both score 2.1% 4.9% 14.9% 0.33× 20.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar & over 1.5 74.6% 67.5% 33.5% 2.01× 1.48
Krasnodar & over 2.5 62.7% 54.8% 26.0% 2.11× 1.83
Krasnodar & over 3.5 43.3% 40.3% 13.5% 2.99× 2.48
Krasnodar & under 3.5 38.9% 34.9% 30.9% 1.13× 2.86
Krasnodar & under 2.5 19.5% 18.0% 18.4% 0.98× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 9.2% 7.9% 20.7% 0.38× 12.69
Draw & under 2.5 9.3% 7.9% 22.1% 0.36× 12.69
Draw & under 3.5 9.3% 7.9% 22.1% 0.36× 12.69
Krasnodar & under 1.5 7.6% 7.9% 10.8% 0.73× 12.69
Akron Tolyatti & over 1.5 3.9% 4.8% 20.7% 0.23× 20.93
Akron Tolyatti & under 3.5 3.9% 4.8% 20.7% 0.23× 20.93
Draw & under 1.5 3.3% 4.8% 7.4% 0.65× 20.93
Draw & over 2.5 3.3% 4.8% 5.9% 0.81× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 3.3% 4.8% 5.9% 0.81× 20.93
Akron Tolyatti & over 2.5 3.3% 4.8% 16.6% 0.29× 20.93
Akron Tolyatti & under 2.5 1.9% 4.8% 11.9% 0.40× 20.94
Akron Tolyatti & under 1.5 1.3% 4.8% 7.8% 0.61× 20.95
Akron Tolyatti & over 3.5 1.3% 4.8% 7.8% 0.61× 20.95
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (1UP) 88.5% 89.9% 1.11
Akron Tolyatti (1UP) 20.1% 21.8% 4.58
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (2UP) 82.2% 85.7% 1.17
Akron Tolyatti (2UP) 5.2% 7.9% 12.63
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to win 2nd half 68.6% 63.6% 1.57
2nd half drawn 23.1% 23.0% 4.35
Akron Tolyatti to win 2nd half 8.3% 7.8% 12.89
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (+0.5) 94.8% 92.1% 71.8% 1.28× 1.09
Krasnodar (-0.5) 82.2% 82.4% 44.2% 1.87× 1.21
Krasnodar (-1.5) 63.7% 62.9% 22.7% 2.77× 1.59
Akron Tolyatti (+2.5) 58.0% 57.0% 89.6% 0.64× 1.75
Krasnodar (-2.5) 42.0% 43.0% 10.4% 4.12× 2.33
Akron Tolyatti (+1.5) 36.3% 37.1% 77.3% 0.48× 2.69
Akron Tolyatti (+0.5) 17.8% 17.6% 55.8% 0.32× 5.68
Akron Tolyatti (-0.5) 5.2% 7.9% 28.2% 0.28× 12.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti to concede 94.5% 91.9% 77.9% 1.18× 1.09
Akron Tolyatti clean sheet 5.5% 8.1% 22.1% 0.37× 12.27
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti to concede in 1st half 71.4% 77.0% 1.30
Akron Tolyatti clean sheet in 1st half 28.6% 23.0% 4.36
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti under 6.5 corners 93.8% 89.3% 1.12
Akron Tolyatti under 5.5 corners 87.6% 84.9% 1.18
Akron Tolyatti under 4.5 corners 77.1% 75.8% 1.32
Akron Tolyatti under 3.5 corners 61.4% 61.4% 1.63
Akron Tolyatti over 2.5 corners 58.6% 56.9% 1.76
Akron Tolyatti under 2.5 corners 41.4% 43.1% 2.32
Akron Tolyatti over 3.5 corners 38.6% 38.6% 2.59
Akron Tolyatti over 4.5 corners 22.9% 24.2% 4.13
Akron Tolyatti over 5.5 corners 12.4% 15.1% 6.63
Akron Tolyatti over 6.5 corners 6.2% 10.7% 9.32
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti under 3.5 goals 99.5% 97.6% 96.9% 1.01× 1.03
Akron Tolyatti under 2.5 goals 97.0% 97.6% 88.8% 1.10× 1.03
Akron Tolyatti under 1.5 goals 85.6% 87.9% 70.1% 1.25× 1.14
Akron Tolyatti under 0.5 goals 51.4% 53.7% 32.7% 1.64× 1.86
Akron Tolyatti over 0.5 goals 48.6% 46.3% 67.3% 0.69× 2.16
Akron Tolyatti over 1.5 goals 14.4% 12.1% 29.9% 0.41× 8.24
Akron Tolyatti over 2.5 goals 3.0% 2.4% 11.2% 0.22× 41.04
Akron Tolyatti over 3.5 goals 0.5% 2.4% 3.1% 0.79× 41.18
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti under 1.5 in 1st half 97.0% 95.8% 1.04
Akron Tolyatti under 0.5 in 1st half 76.6% 75.7% 1.32
Akron Tolyatti over 0.5 in 1st half 23.4% 24.3% 4.12
Akron Tolyatti over 1.5 in 1st half 3.0% 4.2% 23.77
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (away no bet) 86.7% 84.5% 61.4% 1.38× 1.18
Draw (away no bet) 13.3% 15.5% 38.6% 0.40× 6.45
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti even goals 63.2% 59.1% 53.4% 1.11× 1.69
Akron Tolyatti odd goals 36.8% 40.9% 46.6% 0.88× 2.45
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 72.7% 77.2% 1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals 27.3% 22.8% 4.39
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 78.7% 72.9% 1.37
Both halves under 1.5 goals 21.3% 27.1% 3.68
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 77.2% 75.7% 1.32
Krasnodar to score 2+ in a row 73.9% 72.0% 1.39
Either team to score 3+ in a row 47.8% 46.1% 2.17
Krasnodar to score 3+ in a row 47.0% 46.0% 2.17
Akron Tolyatti to score 2+ in a row 7.8% 5.6% 17.90
Akron Tolyatti to score 3+ in a row 1.0% 2.5% 39.52
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar corners (+3.5) 94.5% 88.7% 1.13
Krasnodar corners (+2.5) 90.0% 84.2% 1.19
Krasnodar corners (+1.5) 83.0% 80.0% 1.25
Akron Tolyatti corners (+3.5) 75.0% 75.5% 1.33
Akron Tolyatti corners (+2.5) 64.1% 61.7% 1.62
Akron Tolyatti corners (+1.5) 51.6% 52.3% 1.91
Krasnodar corners (-1.5) 48.4% 47.7% 2.10
Krasnodar corners (-2.5) 35.9% 38.3% 2.61
Krasnodar corners (-3.5) 25.0% 24.5% 4.08
Akron Tolyatti corners (-1.5) 17.0% 20.0% 5.00
Akron Tolyatti corners (-2.5) 10.0% 15.8% 6.32
Akron Tolyatti corners (-3.5) 5.5% 11.3% 8.83
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 61.8% 49.8% 2.01
9-11 corners 25.5% 31.8% 3.15
12+ corners 12.7% 20.3% 4.92
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 91.9% 86.0% 1.16
Under 11.5 corners 87.3% 82.8% 1.21
Under 10.5 corners 80.8% 79.8% 1.25
Under 9.5 corners 72.3% 72.5% 1.38
Under 8.5 corners 61.8% 62.7% 1.60
Over 7.5 corners 50.3% 52.2% 1.92
Under 7.5 corners 49.7% 47.8% 2.09
Over 8.5 corners 38.2% 37.3% 2.68
Over 9.5 corners 27.7% 27.5% 3.64
Over 10.5 corners 19.2% 20.2% 4.96
Over 11.5 corners 12.7% 17.2% 5.81
Over 12.5 corners 8.1% 14.0% 7.14
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 16.9% 13.8% 4.1% 3.36× 7.27
2-0 11.9% 11.5% 7.8% 1.47× 8.73
3-0 11.5% 11.5% 4.1% 2.80× 8.73
4-0 8.4% 7.4% 2.5% 3.03× 13.46
1-0 7.6% 7.4% 10.8% 0.69× 13.46
2-1 7.9% 7.4% 8.8% 0.85× 13.46
3-1 7.7% 7.4% 4.3% 1.73× 13.46
1-1 6.0% 7.4% 14.9% 0.50× 13.46
4-1 5.6% 7.4% 1.4% 5.19× 13.46
0-0 3.3% 1.7% 7.4% 0.23× 58.57
0-1 1.3% 1.7% 7.8% 0.22× 58.59
0-2 0.6% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.59
0-3 0.1% 1.7% 2.5% 0.70× 58.59
0-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.4% 4.17× 58.59
1-2 1.8% 1.7% 6.7% 0.25× 58.58
1-3 0.4% 1.7% 2.5% 0.70× 58.59
1-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.67× 58.59
2-2 2.6% 1.7% 4.9% 0.35× 58.58
2-3 0.6% 1.7% 2.7% 0.64× 58.59
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.09× 58.59
3-2 2.6% 1.7% 2.2% 0.76× 58.58
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 1.39× 58.59
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.17× 58.59
4-2 1.9% 1.7% 0.8% 2.09× 58.58
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 4.17× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.35× 58.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar leading at HT (DNB) 89.0% 87.6% 1.14
Akron Tolyatti leading at HT (DNB) 11.0% 12.4% 8.07
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar or draw (1X) 94.8% 92.1% 71.8% 1.28× 1.09
Krasnodar or Akron Tolyatti (12) 87.4% 86.7% 72.2% 1.20× 1.15
Akron Tolyatti or draw (X2) 17.8% 19.2% 55.8% 0.34× 5.21
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar or draw at HT 92.3% 90.2% 1.11
Krasnodar or Akron Tolyatti at HT 70.0% 66.2% 1.51
Akron Tolyatti or draw at HT 37.8% 30.3% 3.30
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar or draw (1UP) 94.8% 94.2% 1.06
Akron Tolyatti or draw (1UP) 20.1% 23.1% 4.33
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar or draw in 2nd half 91.7% 92.2% 1.08
Krasnodar or Akron Tolyatti in 2nd half 76.9% 77.0% 1.30
Akron Tolyatti or draw in 2nd half 31.4% 36.4% 2.75
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half drawn 54.4% 50.3% 1.99
A half drawn 45.6% 49.7% 2.01
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (DNB) 94.0% 93.3% 61.0% 1.53× 1.07
Akron Tolyatti (DNB) 6.0% 6.7% 39.0% 0.17× 14.97
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to score first 78.7% 80.9% 1.24
Akron Tolyatti to score first 18.0% 18.2% 5.49
No goal scored 3.3% 4.3% 23.04
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 53.5% 51.5% 47.4% 1.08× 1.94
Both teams to score 46.5% 48.5% 52.6% 0.92× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 40.5% 41.5% 37.8% 1.10× 2.41
Not both score & over 2.5 28.7% 33.6% 10.4% 3.22× 2.97
Not both score & under 2.5 24.8% 27.7% 37.2% 0.75× 3.60
Both score & under 2.5 6.0% 8.4% 14.9% 0.56× 11.97
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 88.7% 85.7% 86.9% 0.99× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 11.3% 14.3% 13.1% 1.09× 6.99
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 73.2% 74.6% 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 26.8% 25.4% 3.93
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 60.8% 66.5% 1.50
Both score 2nd half only 22.4% 21.1% 4.73
Both score 1st half only 12.3% 10.5% 9.54
Both score in both halves 4.5% 5.0% 20.01
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.2% 82.9% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 16.8% 17.1% 5.84
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 68.4% 66.8% 1.50
A half without a goal 31.6% 33.2% 3.02
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 40.9% 42.1% 25.4% 1.66× 2.38
2-3 goals 39.8% 35.0% 47.9% 0.73× 2.86
0-1 goals 12.3% 16.9% 25.6% 0.66× 5.91
7+ goals 7.0% 7.6% 1.6% 4.65× 13.15
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti to score exactly 0 51.4% 47.3% 32.7% 1.45× 2.11
Akron Tolyatti to score exactly 1 34.2% 33.9% 37.6% 0.90× 2.95
Akron Tolyatti to score exactly 2 11.4% 12.8% 18.8% 0.68× 7.81
Akron Tolyatti to score 3+ 3.0% 4.5% 11.2% 0.40× 22.27
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to score 3+ 55.6% 44.5% 18.8% 2.37× 2.25
Krasnodar to score exactly 2 23.1% 23.3% 24.3% 0.96× 4.30
Krasnodar to score exactly 1 15.9% 18.9% 35.2% 0.54× 5.30
Krasnodar to score exactly 0 5.5% 10.3% 22.1% 0.47× 9.73
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar leading at HT 62.2% 69.7% 1.44
Draw at HT 30.0% 33.8% 2.96
Akron Tolyatti leading at HT 7.7% 9.8% 10.21
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar -1: 1 63.7% 62.4% 1.60
Krasnodar -1: X 18.5% 17.5% 5.71
Krasnodar -1: 2 17.8% 17.5% 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (0:1) 63.7% 61.3% 22.7% 2.70× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 18.5% 17.8% 21.7% 0.82× 5.62
Akron Tolyatti (0:1) 17.8% 17.8% 55.8% 0.32× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti (0:2) 36.3% 38.7% 77.3% 0.50× 2.59
Krasnodar (0:2) 42.0% 38.4% 10.4% 3.68× 2.61
Draw (0:2) 21.7% 20.3% 12.5% 1.63× 4.93
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti (0:3) 58.0% 70.8% 89.6% 0.79× 1.41
Krasnodar (0:3) 23.7% 19.6% 4.7% 4.16× 5.11
Draw (0:3) 18.3% 16.1% 5.9% 2.72× 6.19
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti (0:4) 76.3% 81.0% 95.3% 0.85× 1.24
Draw (0:4) 12.2% 9.5% 3.7% 2.59× 10.51
Krasnodar (0:4) 11.5% 9.5% 1.2% 7.71× 10.58
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (1:0) 94.8% 93.0% 71.8% 1.30× 1.08
Draw (1:0) 3.8% 3.2% 17.0% 0.19× 31.47
Akron Tolyatti (1:0) 1.4% 3.1% 11.5% 0.27× 31.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (2:0) 98.6% 96.9% 88.5% 1.09× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 1.1% 2.3% 7.4% 0.31× 44.34
Akron Tolyatti (2:0) 0.3% 2.3% 4.3% 0.52× 44.40
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.7% 48.3% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 28.2% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 22.1% 24.2% 4.13
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar clean sheet 51.4% 53.1% 32.7% 1.62× 1.88
Krasnodar to concede 48.6% 46.9% 67.3% 0.70× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar clean sheet in 1st half 76.6% 77.3% 1.29
Krasnodar to concede in 1st half 23.4% 22.7% 4.41
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar over 2.5 corners 79.5% 76.1% 1.31
Krasnodar under 6.5 corners 78.8% 76.1% 1.31
Krasnodar under 5.5 corners 67.3% 67.7% 1.48
Krasnodar over 3.5 corners 63.8% 62.0% 1.61
Krasnodar under 4.5 corners 52.6% 53.0% 1.89
Krasnodar over 4.5 corners 47.4% 47.0% 2.13
Krasnodar under 3.5 corners 36.2% 38.0% 2.63
Krasnodar over 5.5 corners 32.7% 32.3% 3.10
Krasnodar over 6.5 corners 21.2% 23.9% 4.19
Krasnodar under 2.5 corners 20.5% 23.9% 4.19
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar over 0.5 goals 94.5% 92.3% 77.9% 1.18× 1.08
Krasnodar over 1.5 goals 78.7% 77.7% 42.9% 1.81× 1.29
Krasnodar under 3.5 goals 66.8% 67.9% 92.6% 0.73× 1.47
Krasnodar over 2.5 goals 55.6% 58.8% 18.8% 3.13× 1.70
Krasnodar under 2.5 goals 44.4% 41.2% 81.2% 0.51× 2.43
Krasnodar over 3.5 goals 33.2% 32.1% 7.4% 4.36× 3.12
Krasnodar under 1.5 goals 21.3% 22.3% 57.1% 0.39× 4.49
Krasnodar under 0.5 goals 5.5% 7.7% 22.1% 0.35× 12.91
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar over 0.5 in 1st half 71.4% 79.2% 1.26
Krasnodar under 1.5 in 1st half 64.4% 64.7% 1.55
Krasnodar over 1.5 in 1st half 35.6% 35.3% 2.84
Krasnodar under 0.5 in 1st half 28.6% 20.8% 4.80
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 70.7% 66.5% 49.6% 1.34× 1.50
Akron Tolyatti (home no bet) 29.3% 33.5% 50.4% 0.67× 2.99
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar even goals 50.2% 50.6% 50.5% 1.00× 1.98
Krasnodar odd goals 49.8% 49.4% 49.5% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 27.3% 28.7% 3.49
HT 0-0 22.0% 24.2% 4.13
HT 2-0 17.2% 18.9% 5.30
Any other HT score 13.4% 11.1% 9.04
HT 1-1 7.4% 7.1% 14.10
HT 0-1 5.7% 7.1% 14.13
HT 2-1 4.6% 2.2% 44.58
HT 1-2 1.0% 2.2% 44.86
HT 0-2 0.8% 2.2% 44.88
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.2% 44.89
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar at HT / Krasnodar at FT 59.1% 60.9% 1.64
Draw at HT / Krasnodar at FT 20.2% 22.1% 4.53
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 7.6% 6.0% 16.57
Akron Tolyatti at HT / Krasnodar at FT 2.9% 3.4% 29.17
Krasnodar at HT / Draw at FT 2.7% 3.4% 29.18
Akron Tolyatti at HT / Akron Tolyatti at FT 2.5% 3.4% 29.18
Akron Tolyatti at HT / Draw at FT 2.3% 3.4% 29.19
Draw at HT / Akron Tolyatti at FT 2.2% 3.4% 29.20
Krasnodar at HT / Akron Tolyatti at FT 0.5% 3.4% 29.27
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to score last 78.8% 77.6% 1.29
Akron Tolyatti to score last 17.9% 12.8% 7.79
No goal scored 3.3% 4.3% 23.04
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.7% 95.6% 1.05
Krasnodar to lead by 1 at any time 88.5% 90.7% 1.10
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 71.9% 74.0% 1.35
Krasnodar to lead by 2 at any time 68.6% 69.5% 1.44
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 45.7% 44.0% 2.28
Krasnodar to lead by 3 at any time 45.2% 43.9% 2.28
Akron Tolyatti to lead by 1 at any time 20.1% 19.6% 5.12
Akron Tolyatti to lead by 2 at any time 3.6% 1.6% 62.24
Akron Tolyatti to lead by 3 at any time 0.5% 1.5% 65.51
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar most corners 61.4% 58.8% 1.70
Akron Tolyatti most corners 26.7% 32.0% 3.12
Corners level 11.9% 10.7% 9.39
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 81.6% 83.5% 87.5% 0.95× 1.20
2-6 goals 80.8% 83.5% 73.0% 1.14× 1.20
2-5 goals 72.6% 72.4% 69.3% 1.04× 1.38
1-4 goals 67.9% 69.0% 79.6% 0.87× 1.45
3-6 goals 62.3% 63.5% 46.6% 1.36× 1.58
2-4 goals 58.9% 59.2% 61.4% 0.97× 1.69
3-5 goals 54.1% 53.2% 42.9% 1.24× 1.88
1-3 goals 48.8% 48.7% 66.1% 0.74× 2.06
4-6 goals 40.9% 43.6% 25.4% 1.72× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.5% 43.6% 35.0% 1.25× 2.29
2-3 goals 39.8% 39.2% 47.9% 0.82× 2.55
4-5 goals 32.8% 35.4% 21.7% 1.63× 2.83
1-2 goals 27.4% 30.2% 44.8% 0.67× 3.31
5-6 goals 21.8% 24.4% 11.9% 2.06× 4.09
7+ goals 7.0% 8.7% 1.6% 5.34× 11.45
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar never behind 76.6% 76.4% 1.31
Akron Tolyatti never behind 8.1% 4.6% 21.68
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.9% 50.8% 48.9% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.1% 49.2% 51.1% 0.96× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.6% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 47.4% 48.5% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.2% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.8% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.7% 95.5% 92.6% 1.03× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 87.7% 87.7% 74.4% 1.18× 1.14
Under 5.5 goals 84.9% 82.4% 94.7% 0.87× 1.21
Under 4.5 goals 71.2% 72.5% 86.7% 0.84× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 69.3% 66.3% 48.1% 1.38× 1.51
Under 3.5 goals 52.1% 52.4% 73.2% 0.72× 1.91
Over 3.5 goals 47.9% 47.6% 26.8% 1.78× 2.10
Under 2.5 goals 30.7% 33.7% 51.9% 0.65× 2.97
Over 4.5 goals 28.8% 27.5% 13.3% 2.07× 3.64
Over 5.5 goals 15.1% 17.6% 5.3% 3.32× 5.67
Under 1.5 goals 12.3% 12.3% 25.6% 0.48× 8.11
Under 0.5 goals 3.3% 4.5% 7.4% 0.61× 22.20
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 92.4% 92.5% 98.3% 0.94× 1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 84.9% 81.1% 65.3% 1.24× 1.23
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 82.5% 81.1% 94.2% 0.86× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 64.4% 62.2% 84.6% 0.73× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 60.9% 62.1% 34.0% 1.83× 1.61
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 39.1% 37.9% 66.0% 0.57× 2.64
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 35.6% 37.8% 15.4% 2.46× 2.64
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 17.5% 18.9% 5.8% 3.27× 5.30
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 15.1% 18.9% 34.7% 0.54× 5.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 7.6% 7.5% 1.7% 4.44× 13.26
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 80.5% 86.3% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 78.0% 78.7% 1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half 55.1% 63.7% 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 44.9% 36.3% 2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half 22.0% 21.3% 4.69
Over 2.5 in 1st half 19.5% 13.7% 7.32
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 87.0% 85.4% 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 66.2% 67.0% 1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 61.1% 61.8% 1.62
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 38.9% 38.2% 2.62
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 33.8% 33.0% 3.03
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 13.0% 14.6% 6.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti not to score in both halves 92.3% 90.3% 1.11
Krasnodar to score in both halves 57.8% 57.6% 1.74
Krasnodar not to score in both halves 42.2% 42.4% 2.36
Akron Tolyatti to score in both halves 7.7% 9.7% 10.26
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only Krasnodar scores 48.0% 50.4% 25.6% 1.97× 1.99
Both teams score 46.5% 50.3% 52.6% 0.96× 1.99
Neither team scores 3.3% 4.6% 7.4% 0.62× 21.74
Only Akron Tolyatti scores 2.1% 4.6% 14.9% 0.31× 21.80
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.4% 22.6% 21.5% 1.05× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 19.1% 17.5% 13.7% 1.27× 5.73
Exactly 2 goals 18.5% 17.5% 26.6% 0.66× 5.73
6 or more goals 15.1% 17.4% 5.3% 3.28× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 13.7% 12.1% 8.2% 1.47× 8.29
Exactly 1 goals 8.9% 7.6% 18.4% 0.41× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 3.3% 4.4% 7.4% 0.60× 22.62
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 61.1% 58.5% 1.71
1 goal in 2nd half 25.9% 29.5% 3.39
No goals in 2nd half 13.0% 14.5% 6.90
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti not to win both halves 99.3% 97.3% 1.03
Krasnodar not to win both halves 57.1% 56.7% 1.76
Krasnodar to win both halves 42.9% 43.3% 2.31
Akron Tolyatti to win both halves 0.7% 2.7% 36.51
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to win either half 88.0% 92.3% 1.08
Akron Tolyatti to win neither half 84.7% 83.4% 1.20
Akron Tolyatti to win either half 15.3% 16.7% 6.01
Krasnodar to win neither half 12.0% 7.7% 12.93
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti not to win to nil 97.9% 96.2% 85.1% 1.13× 1.04
Krasnodar not to win to nil 52.0% 54.3% 74.4% 0.73× 1.84
Krasnodar to win to nil 48.0% 45.7% 25.6% 1.79× 2.19
Akron Tolyatti to win to nil 2.1% 3.8% 14.9% 0.25× 26.33
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar by 3+ 42.0% 34.4% 10.4% 3.30× 2.90
Krasnodar by 2 21.7% 24.1% 12.5% 1.94× 4.14
Krasnodar by 1 18.5% 16.9% 21.7% 0.78× 5.90
Draw 12.6% 11.8% 27.8% 0.42× 8.46
Akron Tolyatti by 1 3.8% 2.7% 17.0% 0.16× 36.95
Akron Tolyatti by 2 1.1% 2.7% 7.4% 0.37× 37.03
Akron Tolyatti by 3+ 0.3% 2.7% 4.3% 0.63× 37.06
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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