La Serena v Ñublense — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

La Serena

11:30

Ñublense

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 8h before kick-off

La Serena win

47.1%

model 44.2%

Draw

22.7%

model 21.2%

Ñublense win

30.2%

model 34.6%

472330

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 11.3%
0-1 10.0%
1-1 9.9%
2-1 8.9%
1-2 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.6%	Under 2.5	47.4%
BTTS yes	54.1%	BTTS no	45.9%
La Serena 1+	77.6%	La Serena 2+	44.0%
Ñublense 1+	72.3%	Ñublense 2+	36.8%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.29. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

2-5 goals

Multi goal · usually 64%

69.1% fair odds 1.45

moderate signal · 2188 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

83.0% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1236 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out La Serena.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

La Serena have an estimated 47.1% win probability, against 30.2% for Ñublense and 22.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.49 for La Serena and 1.28 for Ñublense.

Why La Serena

Nothing in the data singles out La Serena.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.7%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.49 to 1.28. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Ñublense can win

Ñublense carry the stronger rating, 1512 Elo against 1473.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for La Serena, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Ñublense, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

La Serena: 41% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Ñublense: 51% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

La Serena are the model's most likely outcome at 47.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.3%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	442135	1.49–1.29	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	462133	1.49–1.22	1-0 12%	51%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to win	45.7%	47.4%	48.9%	0.97×	2.11
Ñublense to win	32.9%	30.4%	30.1%	1.01×	3.29
Draw	21.4%	24.4%	21.3%	1.15×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena & not both score	25.0%	25.2%	26.7%	0.94×	3.97
La Serena & both teams score	20.6%	21.9%	22.5%	0.97×	4.57
Ñublense & not both score	17.8%	17.9%	16.9%	1.06×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	16.8%	17.9%	16.6%	1.08×	5.58
Ñublense & both teams score	15.1%	17.9%	13.4%	1.33×	5.58
Draw & not both score	4.6%	4.9%	4.9%	1.00×	20.47

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena & over 1.5	33.7%	30.9%	35.9%	0.86×	3.24
La Serena & under 3.5	32.1%	30.9%	34.0%	0.91×	3.24
La Serena & over 2.5	26.3%	26.0%	29.1%	0.89×	3.84
Ñublense & under 3.5	24.4%	21.6%	23.5%	0.92×	4.62
Ñublense & over 1.5	22.8%	21.6%	20.0%	1.08×	4.62
La Serena & under 2.5	19.4%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Ñublense & over 2.5	17.9%	18.0%	16.6%	1.08×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.8%	18.0%	16.6%	1.08×	5.56
Ñublense & under 2.5	15.1%	18.0%	13.7%	1.31×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.7%	12.9%	13.9%	0.92×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	14.7%	12.9%	13.9%	0.92×	7.77
La Serena & over 3.5	13.5%	12.9%	15.2%	0.85×	7.77
La Serena & under 1.5	12.0%	12.9%	13.2%	0.97×	7.78
Ñublense & under 1.5	10.1%	12.9%	10.3%	1.25×	7.78
Ñublense & over 3.5	8.5%	7.9%	6.8%	1.15×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	6.7%	7.9%	7.6%	1.04×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	6.7%	7.9%	7.6%	1.04×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	4.6%	4.8%	4.9%	0.98×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (1UP)	60.4%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Ñublense (1UP)	49.4%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (2UP)	45.7%	49.7%	—	—	2.01
Ñublense (2UP)	32.9%	31.1%	—	—	3.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to win 2nd half	36.5%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
2nd half drawn	34.1%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Ñublense to win 2nd half	29.5%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense (+2.5)	91.6%	92.1%	89.7%	1.03×	1.09
Ñublense (+1.5)	78.5%	78.5%	77.0%	1.02×	1.27
La Serena (+0.5)	67.1%	68.7%	69.9%	0.98×	1.46
Ñublense (+0.5)	54.3%	52.4%	51.1%	1.02×	1.91
La Serena (-0.5)	45.7%	47.6%	48.9%	0.97×	2.10
Ñublense (-0.5)	32.9%	31.3%	30.1%	1.04×	3.20
La Serena (-1.5)	21.5%	21.5%	23.0%	0.94×	4.65
La Serena (-2.5)	8.4%	7.9%	10.3%	0.77×	12.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense to concede	77.6%	79.0%	78.5%	1.01×	1.27
Ñublense clean sheet	22.4%	21.0%	21.5%	0.98×	4.76

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense to concede in 1st half	47.4%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Ñublense clean sheet in 1st half	52.6%	49.1%	—	—	2.04

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense over 2.5 corners	78.1%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Ñublense under 6.5 corners	77.6%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Ñublense under 5.5 corners	66.6%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Ñublense over 3.5 corners	62.8%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Ñublense under 4.5 corners	52.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Ñublense over 4.5 corners	47.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Ñublense under 3.5 corners	37.2%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Ñublense over 5.5 corners	33.4%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
Ñublense over 6.5 corners	22.4%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
Ñublense under 2.5 corners	21.9%	24.2%	—	—	4.14

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense under 3.5 goals	96.5%	97.6%	97.1%	1.01×	1.03
Ñublense under 2.5 goals	87.6%	87.9%	88.3%	1.00×	1.14
Ñublense over 0.5 goals	70.4%	71.9%	68.7%	1.05×	1.39
Ñublense under 1.5 goals	65.7%	67.9%	68.5%	0.99×	1.47
Ñublense over 1.5 goals	34.3%	32.1%	31.5%	1.02×	3.12
Ñublense under 0.5 goals	29.6%	28.1%	31.3%	0.90×	3.56
Ñublense over 2.5 goals	12.4%	12.1%	11.7%	1.03×	8.25
Ñublense over 3.5 goals	3.5%	2.4%	2.9%	0.83×	41.01

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense under 1.5 in 1st half	91.4%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Ñublense under 0.5 in 1st half	61.5%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Ñublense over 0.5 in 1st half	38.5%	35.6%	—	—	2.81
Ñublense over 1.5 in 1st half	8.6%	5.9%	—	—	16.94

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (away no bet)	68.1%	66.5%	69.7%	0.95×	1.50
Draw (away no bet)	31.9%	33.5%	30.3%	1.11×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense even goals	54.4%	52.8%	53.5%	0.99×	1.90
Ñublense odd goals	45.6%	47.2%	46.5%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.4%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.6%	12.2%	—	—	8.18

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.4%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.6%	42.3%	—	—	2.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.3%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
La Serena to score 2+ in a row	35.7%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Ñublense to score 2+ in a row	25.9%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.2%	16.5%	—	—	6.08
La Serena to score 3+ in a row	12.3%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
Ñublense to score 3+ in a row	7.1%	5.6%	—	—	17.96

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense corners (+3.5)	86.1%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
La Serena corners (+3.5)	81.2%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Ñublense corners (+2.5)	79.2%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
La Serena corners (+2.5)	72.9%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Ñublense corners (+1.5)	70.2%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
La Serena corners (+1.5)	62.9%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Ñublense corners (-1.5)	37.1%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
La Serena corners (-1.5)	29.8%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Ñublense corners (-2.5)	27.1%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
La Serena corners (-2.5)	20.8%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Ñublense corners (-3.5)	18.8%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
La Serena corners (-3.5)	13.9%	15.8%	—	—	6.31

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.6%	40.7%	—	—	2.46
9-11 corners	28.3%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
12+ corners	23.0%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.5%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Under 11.5 corners	77.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	68.9%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	62.5%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 9.5 corners	59.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.4%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Under 8.5 corners	48.6%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 9.5 corners	40.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	37.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 10.5 corners	31.1%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 11.5 corners	23.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.28
Over 12.5 corners	16.5%	20.1%	—	—	4.96

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	12.0%	11.5%	13.2%	0.87×	8.73
0-1	10.1%	11.4%	10.3%	1.11×	8.74
1-1	10.0%	11.4%	9.3%	1.23×	8.74
2-1	9.0%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.46
1-2	7.4%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.46
2-0	7.4%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.46
2-2	5.5%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.46
0-2	4.9%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.56
0-0	4.6%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.57
0-3	2.0%	1.7%	2.9%	0.58×	58.58
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.59
1-3	3.0%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.58
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.59
2-3	2.2%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.58
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	1.0%	1.75×	58.59
3-0	3.7%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.57
3-1	4.5%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.57
3-2	2.7%	1.7%	2.0%	0.87×	58.58
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.59
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.75×	58.59
4-0	1.4%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.58
4-1	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.58
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.59
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	1.0%	1.75×	58.59
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	6.98×	58.59
Any other score	2.6%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.58

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena leading at HT (DNB)	58.8%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Ñublense leading at HT (DNB)	41.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena or Ñublense (12)	78.6%	75.6%	78.7%	0.96×	1.32
La Serena or draw (1X)	67.1%	69.6%	69.9%	1.00×	1.44
Ñublense or draw (X2)	54.3%	52.6%	51.1%	1.03×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena or draw at HT	76.3%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Ñublense or draw at HT	66.2%	66.0%	—	—	1.51
La Serena or Ñublense at HT	57.4%	56.8%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena or draw (1UP)	67.1%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Ñublense or draw (1UP)	54.3%	58.9%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena or draw in 2nd half	70.5%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
La Serena or Ñublense in 2nd half	65.9%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Ñublense or draw in 2nd half	63.5%	63.9%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.4%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	35.6%	38.4%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (DNB)	58.1%	58.2%	61.9%	0.94×	1.72
Ñublense (DNB)	41.9%	41.8%	38.1%	1.10×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to score first	52.6%	54.2%	—	—	1.85
Ñublense to score first	42.8%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	4.6%	4.4%	—	—	22.83

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.5%	51.5%	52.1%	0.99×	1.94
Not both teams to score	47.5%	48.5%	47.9%	1.01×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	42.5%	41.5%	43.0%	0.97×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	39.1%	38.5%	38.1%	1.01×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	10.0%	12.3%	9.3%	1.33×	8.12
Not both score & over 2.5	8.4%	8.4%	10.0%	0.83×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.9%	83.2%	84.6%	0.98×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	15.1%	16.8%	15.4%	1.09×	5.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.0%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.0%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.5%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	23.6%	21.2%	—	—	4.73
Both score 1st half only	12.5%	10.5%	—	—	9.54
Both score in both halves	5.4%	6.7%	—	—	15.03

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.1%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	17.9%	17.2%	—	—	5.83

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.7%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
A half without a goal	47.3%	46.6%	—	—	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.5%	42.1%	43.3%	0.97×	2.37
0-1 goals	26.7%	26.4%	27.9%	0.95×	3.79
4-6 goals	26.7%	26.4%	26.9%	0.98×	3.79
7+ goals	2.1%	1.8%	2.4%	0.74×	55.22

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense to score exactly 1	36.0%	36.0%	37.4%	0.96×	2.78
Ñublense to score exactly 0	29.6%	27.4%	31.3%	0.88×	3.65
Ñublense to score exactly 2	21.9%	22.4%	20.0%	1.12×	4.47
Ñublense to score 3+	12.4%	12.8%	11.7%	1.09×	7.80

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to score exactly 1	33.5%	32.6%	31.8%	1.03×	3.06
La Serena to score exactly 2	25.1%	26.5%	26.4%	1.00×	3.78
La Serena to score exactly 0	22.4%	23.3%	21.5%	1.08×	4.30
La Serena to score 3+	19.0%	18.9%	20.8%	0.91×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.6%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
La Serena leading at HT	33.8%	34.0%	—	—	2.95
Ñublense leading at HT	23.7%	20.0%	—	—	4.99

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena -1: 2	54.3%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
La Serena -1: X	24.2%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
La Serena -1: 1	21.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense (0:1)	54.3%	51.2%	51.1%	1.00×	1.95
Draw (0:1)	24.2%	24.3%	26.2%	0.93×	4.11
La Serena (0:1)	21.5%	24.3%	23.0%	1.06×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense (0:2)	78.5%	79.4%	77.0%	1.03×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.1%	11.0%	13.0%	0.85×	9.08
La Serena (0:2)	8.4%	7.7%	10.3%	0.75×	12.97

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense (0:3)	91.6%	92.6%	89.7%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.7%	5.8%	5.1%	1.13×	17.26
La Serena (0:3)	2.7%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.02

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense (0:4)	97.3%	98.1%	94.6%	1.04×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.0%	1.2%	4.2%	0.29×	83.24
La Serena (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.5%	0.82×	83.39

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (1:0)	67.1%	69.8%	69.9%	1.00×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	20.1%	21.7%	20.0%	1.08×	4.61
Ñublense (1:0)	12.9%	12.8%	10.3%	1.25×	7.80

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena (2:0)	87.1%	88.3%	89.7%	0.98×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.7%	6.5%	6.4%	1.02×	15.47
Ñublense (2:0)	4.2%	2.3%	4.2%	0.55×	44.14

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.5%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
1st half highest scoring	28.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	22.0%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to concede	70.4%	73.0%	68.7%	1.06×	1.37
La Serena clean sheet	29.6%	27.0%	31.3%	0.86×	3.70

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena clean sheet in 1st half	61.5%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
La Serena to concede in 1st half	38.5%	35.6%	—	—	2.81

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena under 6.5 corners	82.0%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
La Serena over 2.5 corners	74.1%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
La Serena under 5.5 corners	71.8%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
La Serena under 4.5 corners	58.4%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
La Serena over 3.5 corners	57.6%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
La Serena under 3.5 corners	42.4%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
La Serena over 4.5 corners	41.6%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
La Serena over 5.5 corners	28.2%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
La Serena under 2.5 corners	25.9%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
La Serena over 6.5 corners	18.0%	18.7%	—	—	5.36

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena under 3.5 goals	93.5%	92.2%	91.0%	1.01×	1.08
La Serena under 2.5 goals	81.0%	82.1%	79.2%	1.04×	1.22
La Serena over 0.5 goals	77.6%	77.7%	78.5%	0.99×	1.29
La Serena under 1.5 goals	56.0%	58.8%	53.1%	1.11×	1.70
La Serena over 1.5 goals	44.0%	41.2%	46.9%	0.88×	2.43
La Serena under 0.5 goals	22.4%	22.3%	21.5%	1.04×	4.48
La Serena over 2.5 goals	19.0%	17.9%	20.8%	0.86×	5.60
La Serena over 3.5 goals	6.5%	7.8%	9.0%	0.86×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena under 1.5 in 1st half	86.4%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
La Serena over 0.5 in 1st half	47.4%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
La Serena under 0.5 in 1st half	52.6%	49.0%	—	—	2.04
La Serena over 1.5 in 1st half	13.6%	10.1%	—	—	9.89

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense (home no bet)	60.6%	60.1%	58.6%	1.03×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	39.4%	39.9%	41.4%	0.96×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena even goals	52.5%	50.6%	54.5%	0.93×	1.97
La Serena odd goals	47.5%	49.4%	45.5%	1.09×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.0%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
HT 1-0	21.1%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 0-1	16.1%	18.9%	—	—	5.30
HT 1-1	9.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.07
HT 2-0	6.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.11
Any other HT score	4.1%	2.2%	—	—	44.62
HT 0-2	3.8%	2.2%	—	—	44.64
HT 2-1	3.2%	2.2%	—	—	44.68
HT 1-2	2.5%	2.2%	—	—	44.75
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.2%	—	—	44.88

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena at HT / La Serena at FT	26.7%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Ñublense at HT / Ñublense at FT	17.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / La Serena at FT	16.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Ñublense at FT	13.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
La Serena at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.09
Ñublense at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.4%	—	—	29.11
Ñublense at HT / La Serena at FT	2.4%	3.4%	—	—	29.19
La Serena at HT / Ñublense at FT	2.2%	3.4%	—	—	29.20

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to score last	52.5%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Ñublense to score last	42.9%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	4.6%	4.4%	—	—	22.83

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.4%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
La Serena to lead by 1 at any time	60.4%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Ñublense to lead by 1 at any time	49.4%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.0%	44.0%	—	—	2.28
La Serena to lead by 2 at any time	27.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Ñublense to lead by 2 at any time	18.4%	14.9%	—	—	6.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.1%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
La Serena to lead by 3 at any time	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Ñublense to lead by 3 at any time	5.6%	6.5%	—	—	15.42

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense most corners	48.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
La Serena most corners	40.4%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Corners level	11.4%	10.6%	—	—	9.39

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	89.6%	87.4%	87.3%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.5%	83.5%	81.2%	1.03×	1.20
2-6 goals	71.2%	72.4%	69.9%	1.04×	1.38
2-5 goals	67.5%	69.0%	64.3%	1.07×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.6%	69.0%	66.3%	1.04×	1.45
2-4 goals	59.4%	59.2%	58.2%	1.02×	1.69
3-6 goals	48.8%	48.7%	50.6%	0.96×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.1%	48.7%	45.0%	1.08×	2.06
1-2 goals	44.5%	43.6%	42.5%	1.03×	2.29
2-3 goals	44.5%	43.6%	43.3%	1.01×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.0%	39.2%	38.9%	1.01×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.7%	30.2%	26.9%	1.12×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.1%	24.5%	21.3%	1.15×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.8%	14.8%	12.0%	1.24×	6.74
7+ goals	2.1%	2.5%	2.4%	1.04×	39.48

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena never behind	46.0%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
Ñublense never behind	34.9%	35.6%	—	—	2.81

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	46.1%	50.8%	45.0%	1.13×	1.97
Odd number of goals	53.9%	49.2%	55.0%	0.89×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.5%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.5%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.7%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.3%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.4%	95.5%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	94.3%	92.3%	91.9%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.1%	87.7%	85.8%	1.02×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	73.3%	72.5%	72.1%	1.01×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	71.2%	72.5%	70.9%	1.02×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	50.9%	52.4%	52.8%	0.99×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	49.1%	47.6%	47.2%	1.01×	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	28.8%	27.5%	29.1%	0.94×	3.64
Under 1.5 goals	26.7%	27.5%	27.9%	0.99×	3.64
Over 4.5 goals	13.9%	12.3%	14.2%	0.87×	8.11
Over 5.5 goals	5.7%	7.7%	8.1%	0.96×	12.96
Under 0.5 goals	4.6%	4.5%	4.9%	0.92×	22.18

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.8%	97.3%	97.4%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.7%	92.5%	91.4%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.7%	81.1%	83.3%	0.97×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.6%	67.3%	65.5%	1.03×	1.49
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.0%	62.1%	61.9%	1.00×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.0%	37.9%	38.1%	0.99×	2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.4%	32.7%	34.5%	0.95×	3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.3%	18.9%	16.7%	1.13×	5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.3%	7.5%	8.6%	0.88×	13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.2%	2.7%	2.6%	1.06×	36.38

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.5%	89.4%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.2%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.0%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.0%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.8%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.5%	10.6%	—	—	9.41

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.1%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.8%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.2%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.9%	17.1%	—	—	5.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense not to score in both halves	80.1%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
La Serena not to score in both halves	72.8%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
La Serena to score in both halves	27.2%	25.7%	—	—	3.89
Ñublense to score in both halves	19.9%	15.8%	—	—	6.32

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.5%	54.0%	52.1%	1.04×	1.85
Only La Serena scores	25.0%	26.1%	26.7%	0.98×	3.83
Only Ñublense scores	17.8%	16.1%	16.9%	0.96×	6.20
Neither team scores	4.6%	4.6%	4.9%	0.94×	21.69

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	22.1%	22.6%	23.2%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	22.4%	22.6%	19.6%	1.16×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	24.0%	0.95×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	15.0%	12.1%	15.2%	0.80×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	8.1%	7.6%	6.4%	1.20×	13.13
6 or more goals	5.7%	7.6%	8.1%	0.94×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	4.6%	4.4%	4.9%	0.90×	22.60

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.2%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	33.9%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	19.9%	17.0%	—	—	5.89

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense not to win both halves	93.3%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
La Serena not to win both halves	88.1%	88.1%	—	—	1.14
La Serena to win both halves	12.0%	11.9%	—	—	8.39
Ñublense to win both halves	6.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.63

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena to win either half	58.3%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Ñublense to win neither half	53.6%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Ñublense to win either half	46.4%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
La Serena to win neither half	41.7%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ñublense not to win to nil	82.2%	83.0%	83.1%	1.00×	1.21
La Serena not to win to nil	75.0%	75.3%	73.4%	1.03×	1.33
La Serena to win to nil	25.0%	24.7%	26.7%	0.93×	4.05
Ñublense to win to nil	17.8%	17.0%	16.9%	1.01×	5.87

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
La Serena by 1	24.2%	24.1%	26.2%	0.92×	4.14
Draw	21.4%	24.1%	21.3%	1.13×	4.14
Ñublense by 1	20.1%	24.1%	20.0%	1.20×	4.14
La Serena by 2	13.1%	11.8%	13.0%	0.91×	8.46
Ñublense by 2	8.7%	7.2%	6.4%	1.14×	13.80
La Serena by 3+	8.4%	7.2%	10.3%	0.71×	13.80
Ñublense by 3+	4.2%	2.7%	4.2%	0.65×	36.93